Climate and Health: from research to policy and practice

Madeleine C. Thomson,

International Research Institute for Climate and Society

PAHO/WHO Collaborating Centre on early warning systems for malaria and other climate sensitive diseases

Bamako 17th-19th November 2008

How does climate impact on health?

Climate and health: two agendas?

RBM - MDGs 2000Malaria

Prevention and Control, Elimination and now Eradication

IPPC 4th Report 2007Climate Change Mitigation

And now Adaptation

Decadal Variability 27 %

Year to year variability 56%

Climate changes on all timescales

Long term trends 18%

Sahel 1900-2006

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

OBSLinearDecadal

Rainfall in the Sahel 1900-2006 – (Giannini pers. comm)

OCP

Areas and seasons where the seasonal rainfall is strongly controlled by sea surface temperatures and therefore potentially predictable

Botswana

Anon, is the climate right, IRI, 2005YEAR

200219981994199019861982

An

om

alie

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CMAP quadratic

SST (*-1)

Standardised malaria

incidence

These results used at in SA Regional Epidemic Malaria Outlook Forum, Harare, 2004-2008

Improving epidemic malaria planning, preparedness and response in Southern Africa. (DaSilva, et al. 2004)

http://www.malariajournal.com/content/3/1/37

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Long term trend: 18% Variance

Inter-decadal variability: 27% Variance

Inter-annual variability: 55% Variance

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El Nino

Climate Change models

Bulletin of the World Meteorological Organization, October 2008

Climate For Development in Africa.

Creating a Climate Smart health sector

Key messages

New Research needed to • Understand climate and health interactions on relevant

policy and decision timescales• Understand the predictability of climate and health

outcomes on relevant policy and decision timescales Operationalisation of current research• Create partnerships between the climate and health

operational research community• Create an operational meteorological community capable

of responding to health/development needsImplementation of current operational research• Create a climate smart health community capable of using

climate information to improve health outcomes today while learning about the potential risks for tomorrow.