Climate Change and Transportation

-Alex BigazziJanuary 28th, 2009

The earth is warming.

– Beyond levels of historic global temperature cycles

– Scientifically supported by many varied data sources

Human activities are changing the climate.– Through greenhouse gases, aerosols, soot,

and deforestation/land use changes

– Even the former president acknowledged this.

Climate change is real and bad and

caused by greenhouse gases.

– This is our starting point.

– “Climate Change” not “Global Warming” because of various regional effects

Greenhouse Gases

Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006, USEPA #430-R-08-005

Methane = 23 CO2 Eq.

N2O = 296 CO2 Eq.

GHG SourcesFossil Fuel Combustion, Iron and Steel Production, Cement Manufacture, Municipal Solid Waste Combustion, Lime Manufacture, Ammonia Manufacture, Aluminum Production, Petrochemical Production, Titanium Dioxide Production, Landfills, Coal Mining, Manure Management, Wastewater Treatment…

Source: Governor’s Advisory Group on Global Warming, Oregon Strategy for Greenhouse Gas Reduction, 2008

Energy Fuels

Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006, USEPA #430-R-08-005

Where they come from

Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006, USEPA #430-R-08-005

Where they go

Transporta-tion

Industrial Residential Commercial0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

2006 Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions by End-Use Sector

Electricity

Tg C

O2

Eq.

Reference: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006, USEPA #430-R-08-005

Transportation’s GHG2006 U.S. Transportation CO2 Emissions from

Fossil Fuel Combustion by Vehicle Class

Passenger CarsLight TrucksHeavy TrucksBusesMotorcyclesRecreational BoatsRailJet FuelOther (ships and pipe-lines)

Reference: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006, USEPA #430-R-08-005

We have a lot of cars…2004 Road Motor Vehicles by Country

Vehi

cles

per

1,0

00 P

opul

atio

n

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Por

tuga

lLu

xem

bour

gN

ew Z

eala

ndIta

lyIc

elan

dA

ustra

liaJa

pan

Fran

ceG

erm

any

Can

ada

Spa

inS

witz

erla

ndA

ustri

aN

orw

ayB

elgi

umU

nite

d K

ingd

omN

ethe

rland

sFi

nlan

dS

wed

enIre

land

Gre

ece

Den

mar

kC

zech

Rep

ublic

Pol

and

Slo

vak

Rep

ublic

Hun

gary

Kor

eaR

ussi

aTu

rkey

Source: 2007 Portland Metropolitan Region Transportation System Performance Report, Portland State University

…and we drive them a lot. Kilometers Road Travel by Country

2003

VK

T pe

r Cap

ita

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Icel

and

Italy

Can

ada

Den

mar

kFr

ance

Finl

and

Sw

itzer

land

Nor

way

Bel

gium

Sw

eden

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Ger

man

yN

ethe

rland

sS

pain

Por

tuga

lC

zech

Rep

ublic

Japa

nH

unga

ryS

lova

k R

epub

licP

olan

dG

reec

e

Source: 2007 Portland Metropolitan Region Transportation System Performance Report, Portland State University

2005 Drive-Alone Commuters

Perc

ent o

f Com

mut

ers

Driv

ing

Alo

ne

0

20

40

60

80

Kans

as C

ity M

O-K

S

Col

umbu

s O

H

Indi

anap

olis

IN

Cin

cinn

ati O

H-K

Y-IN

St. L

ouis

MO

-IL

Mem

phis

TN

-MS-

ARBu

ffalo

NY

Virg

inia

Bea

ch V

A

Cle

vela

nd O

H

Milw

auke

e W

I

Prov

iden

ce R

I-MA

Orla

ndo

FL

Tam

pa-S

t. Pe

ters

burg

FL

San

Anto

nio

TX

Min

neap

olis

-St.

Pau

l MN

Pitts

burg

h PA

Las

Vega

s N

V

San

Jose

CA

San

Die

go C

AD

enve

r-Au

rora

CO

Riv

ersi

de-S

an B

erna

rdin

o C

A

New

Orle

ans

LA

Baltim

ore

MD

Sacr

amen

to C

A

Portl

and

OR

-WA

Source: 2007 Portland Metropolitan Region Transportation System Performance Report, Portland State University

Especially during the peak periods.

We want power…

Slide credit: Dr. Robert Bertini, Fuel for Thought

…and big cars.

Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006, USEPA #430-R-08-005

Which (partly) explains…

Climate-Change Policy and CO2 Emissions from Passenger Vehicles, Congressional Budget Office, October 2008

Assessment•Method depends on scale•Carbon balance with fuel sales•Combine average fleet fuel economy and VMT

Estimation/modeling

•In the U.S., executed by states and the EPA•Standards set by the IPCC

Inventories

•In Oregon: Governor’s Advisory Group On Global Warming•By 2010, arrest the growth of Oregon’s greenhouse gas emissions•By 2020, achieve a 10% reduction below 1990 greenhouse gas levels•By 2050, achieve a “climate stabilization” level at least 75% below 1990

Goals

Main factors for passenger car emissions

VMT!!!

Primary factor

StrategiesReduce VMT!•Pricing/Tolling•Transit Options•Land Use

Increase Efficiency•CAFÉ standards (Bailout!)•Moderate speeds•Vehicles/Operations

Environmental Pricing•Carbon cap-and-trade•GHG “costs” and “benefits” in planning

Decrease Carbon in Fuels•Alternative Fuels•Upstream Emissions•Energy Density

Car Fuel Economy

Gasoline Diesel Hybrid Plug-In Hybrid*

Fuel Cell*

Electric*0

20406080

100120140160

Current2035 est.

Gas

Equ

ival

ent

(mpg

)

Source: Bandivadekar et. al. (2008)

* Estimate depends on carbon intensity of hydrogen and electricity sources

Turnover Rate?

Raise gas prices?Fuel Prices by Country

2003

Fue

l Pric

e pe

r Lite

r (U

.S. D

olla

rs)

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

Icel

and

Net

herla

nds

Nor

way

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Finl

and

Italy

Den

mar

kS

wed

enB

elgi

umG

erm

any

Fran

ceP

ortu

gal

Hun

gary

Sw

itzer

land

Japa

nS

pain

Pol

and

Slo

vak

Rep

ublic

Gre

ece

Cze

ch R

epub

licC

anad

aU

nite

d S

tate

s

Source: 2007 Portland Metropolitan Region Transportation System Performance Report, Portland State University

Shown to: Reduce VMT Moderate Speeds Reduce Car Sizes

But… Increased CAFÉ standards will have a much bigger effect on fuel economy (CBO brief) More research needed on elasticity of demand to gas prices

Fuels Lifecycle Crucial• Upstream emissions

can be 20% and up

Diesel• Better economy• Particulates can

act as GHG

Ethanol• Corn-based can

have no GHG benefits

• Sugar-based better

• E10/E85, FFV

Biodiesel• 40% GHG savings• Land use changes?

Biomass• 70-88% GHG

savings• Need tech

breakthrough• Low energy density

Hydrogen• Requires

breakthrough in fuel cells

• New fueling infrastructure

• Better upstream methods

Electricity• Requires

breakthrough in batteries

• New fueling infrastructure

• Upstream carbon capture

Impacts of Climate ChangeHot days,

heat waves

Arctic temps

Sea Levels

Intense Precipitation Events

Hurricane Intensity

Increasing . . .

Operations•Evacuations•Flood closure•Airport delays•NW Passage?

Infrastructure•Flooding•Erosion•Thermal deformation

•Stability•Bridge clearance

Opportunities• New administration• Congressional activity on reducing GHG

• New surface transportation act in 2009• Copenhagen int’l meeting to renew Kyoto

(Dec. 09)

• Green is in (look at advertising)• Indirectly a nat’l security issue (energy

indep.)• We need new research, policies, and

designs (this means you!)

Resources EPA – www.epa.gov/climatechange/ TRB – http://tris.trb.org/climatechange/ OR –

http://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/docs/GWReport-FInal.pdf Portland Metropolitan Region Transportation

System Performance Report – ITS Lab www.its.pdx.edu

Acknowledgments Dr. Robert Bertini, PSU Dr. William York and the Academically-Controlled

Auxiliary Activities Committee, PSU AAA application form:

http://aaa.groups.pdx.edu/

Estimating CO2

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 230

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000 Hourly CO2 on I-5 NB at Broadway

Hour of Day, July 1, 2005

Poun

ds o

f Car

bon

Dio

xide

I-5 MP 302.5 (1.4 mile section)

?