Climate change in the Carpathians : Current knowledge and suggestions for

future research

Brussels, 6-7.02.2012

Anita Bokwa (Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland)Science for the Carpathians (S4C)

Climate

Long-term data series, mean values, seasonal and interannualvariability, data from various vertical zones

Climate change

Achieving a new state of dynamic equilirium

Impact

of climate variability/change on land use/cover, water resources, biodiversity, tourism etc.

Adaptation

to the new situation

1. Current knowledge

♦ S4C, Science for the Carpathians, Research Agenda for theCarpathians 2010–2015. Integrating Nature and SocietyTowards Sustainability, Kozak J., Björnsen Gurung A. & Ostapowicz K. (eds.), Kraków, 2011:

”The climate change, with special focus on temperature, precipitation patterns and the occurrence of extreme

events have not been sufficiently assessedat the pan-Carpathian scale.”

Why?

♦ Long-term series (longer than 50-60 years) available onlyfrom a few stations; most stations located in the valleys, foothill areas etc.;

♦ Most studies realized only in a local and national scale; smallbilateral projects, e.g. TATREX, Poland-Czechoslovak ia, a part of ALPEX;

♦ Results presented e.g. during several conferences on Carpathian meteorology – parallel to the conferences abou tAlpine meteorology;

♦ No information about the state of the climate change andclimate variability in the whole Carpathian chain, eventhough there are no more political barriers like incommunistic times.

Current knowledge versus impact and adaptation studies:

♦ In order to talk about impact of climate changes andadaptation to it, we must first know much more aboutclimate changes themselves.

♦ Some changes observed e.g. in water resources may be firstof all an effect of land use changes, not necesserily main lyor exclusively an effect of climate changes.

2. Suggestions for the future research

♦ S4C, Science for the Carpathians, Research Agenda for theCarpathians 2010 – 2015. Integrating Nature and Society TowardsSustainability, Kozak J., Björnsen Gurung A. & Ostapowicz K. (eds.), Kraków, 2011.

” Future climate research requires better internationalcollaboration, common protocols and downscaling to make

predictions reliable and thus relevant for planners andmountain dwellers.”

♦ Studies of the climate variability and changes in variousvertical zones of the Carpathians (the summit parts do not react in the same way as the foothills);

♦ Changes of the Carpathians’ climate in different temporalscales:

• last millennium (proxy data);• last 100-200 years (instrumenal data);• after 1950 (many stations established);

♦ Analysis of the role of the main regional factors causingthe climate change in the Carpathians (land use, atmospheric circulation, location of the chain).

♦ It is necessary to establish an international groupconsisting of climatologists:

• representing all countries in which the Carpathians arelocated,

• working not only in meteorological national services but first of all in research institutions e.g. universities oracademies of sciences which have been conductingstudies of the climate in the Carpathians for decades;

• who know lots of valuable research results/studiesalready completed but not widely available, for variou sreasons – no need to study something again.

♦ Aim :

• Each country prepares a report showing the results, dat a used and available resources concerning the climate of theCarpathians spatial and temporal variability in that count ry, for as long period as possible;

• The reports are based on already published materials andonly reviewed data/results are used;

• Each report contains the list of publications from the certaincountry concerning the climate of the Carpathians;

• Only climatologists working in a certain country can do i t as the knowledge of the particular part of the Carpathians andparticular language is necessary;

The reports should be published :

• in English as a monograph, available for the public freeof charge (Internet, open access);

• national chapters available also in national languages.

Such reports would be a good basis for:

♦ the evaluation of the present state of research;

♦ establishement of international thematic groups of expert s;

♦ defining the necessary research actions.

3. Suggested research: Assuptions and barriers

The research should be based on several assumptions, e.g. :

♦ Any interpolation procedure for the data concerning themountain environment must be based on carefuldownscaling, as there are numerous local pecularities;

♦ The representativeness of ”model areas”: justified in th emountains???

♦ Only international research groups, including climatolo gistswell familiar with certain part of the Carpathians, shoul dwork with the data for the whole Carpathians;

♦ Experiences from other mountains should not be automatically applied to the Carpathians, they must be f irstadjusted to the special local conditions/needs.

Basic problems in the Carpathian climate research:

♦ Difficulties and costs of accessing meteorological data i nparticular countries (not accessible free of charge);

♦ Too little number of meteorological stations in thehigh/summit parts of the mountains in order to havesufficient data for modelling purposes – a need to estab lishsuch stations;

♦ No special funds reserved for the research of the climatechange and its impacts in the Carpathians, now the projectproposals are often rejected e.g. as too local; suggesti on: each Carpathian country should have such funds;

♦ International research cooperation among the Carpathiancountries is not sufficiently promoted and supportedfinancially.

Thank you for your attention !