Adaptation&

Carbon Sequestration

Ranyl 2009

What is Climate?

Prevailing conditions that provide theLife Support System

for the local biosphere

“Butterfly Effect”

Climate Sensitivity dependent on Initial conditions so can change and vary

Tipping Points

A tiny push and the rock starts rolling

e.g. collapse of an Ice sheet

Scheffer Nature 2009

The lower the CO2 the fewer we cross!!

Heat up the System and everything expands

CO2 1700ppm

55Mya 5-6C in 1000 to 10000 years

0.06C decade (70% of a Doubling of CO2)~Climate Sensitivity higher (7.1C)

Currently 0.2C decade (50% Doubling)Beerling Paleoclimate 2009

Antarctica~33Mya

CO2 ~750ppm

Mid Pliocene3 million years ago

CO2 ~355ppm

Temp. ~2-3C higher

Arctic Sea Ice less

Greenland Ice sheet absent

Sea Levels 25m higher

Study Indicates that Models

Underestimate Warming to CO2 forcing.

Climate Sensitivity

1000yr ~7.3C

100yr ~4.3C

Dowsett

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2009)

Pliocene wider tropics(Brierly, Science 2009)

No Ice on Greenland without Low CO2

280ppm (Science 2008)

MIS 5e~130000yr

Previous Interglacial

Sea level Rises 1-1.5m / 100yr (2oC hotter, 6m higher)

(Rohling Nat.Geo 2007)

Arctic Antarctic Sea Saw(Severinghaus Nature 2009)

Cooling 18,000 ITZC was South (Partin, Nature 2008)

4.2Kyr Holocene Climate EventIndus Valley 2600-1900BC

Monsoon Reduced droughtsNo Monuments or Palaces

Drains and Water services

Flood Plain Agriculture

1052 cities

(Staubwaser Ges.Res.Let 2002)

El Nino driving climate (Graham Journal Climate 2007)

Moche Civilization100-600ish

Tiwanaku (Bolivia)300-900Drought

Mayan250-900AD

Population densities same as LA.Massive deforestation and MonocultureWars and increasing political chaos1:7000yr Drought in 800-90010,000,000 Population90-95% Population dies

Hottest we’ve been for 2000 years(Mann Sept-2008 PNAS)

Ocean Heat Content(Levitus Geophys.Research Lettters 2009)

Arctic Temperature Record

(Kaufman Science 2009)

Cooling trend in Arctic before 1900

Climate sensitivity

0.07C/W/m2

Summer Sun dropped by 6W/m2

Arctic temp 1.4oC warmer than it should be

1999-2008 hottest decade in last 2000 yrs

4 /5 hottest decades have occurred since 1950

GLACIERS ARE GOING

These photos, although taken from different angles, indicate the change in the Chacaltaya glacier since 1996

Greenland is melting 250% quicker than in 2002

(Zwally, J, 2006) (Velicogna, I, Uni. Colorado, abstract 2006)

4500 years old http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Ellesm

ere/

Jakobshavn Isbrae

Sea Ice Thinning

(Kwok , NASA 2009)

1988

2004-8

53% Loss!!

Arctic Sea Ice Loss(Eisenman, PNAS 2009)

Grey = No Sea IceRed = Seasonal Sea Ice (dashed unstable)

Blue = Perennial Sea Ice

Arctic Sea Ice Tips, warming accelerates

3.5x increase Arctic warming

1000miles south

^permafrost melt

?^Greenland Melt

Sea Ice Lost in 5-10 years

?Consequences of weather patterns in Northern

Hemisphere

(Lawrence, 2008 Geo Res Let)

Permafrost Thaw Lakes (Walter Nature 2006)

Methane Old from Permafrost

5X Previously Predicted

58% increase since ~1980

Increase Absorption solar energy Albedo down

Increases where frozen draining where melted

CO2 and Methane as dead plant material decomposes!

= Positive Feedbacks!!

Methane 2 x atmosphere in Permafrost

(Canadell Nature 2009, Westbrock Ges.Res.Let 2009)

Pine Island Thinning 1990-2006

Wingham 9/09 Ges.Res.Let.

2000: B15A ICEBERG 1.4 W’s

Wilkins Ice Shelf (David Vaughan July 2008)

"The truth is, it is going more quickly than we guessed.“

In last 30yrs 6 Antarctic ice shelves have collapsed -

Prince Gustav Channel, Larsen Inlet, Larsen A, Larsen B, Wordie, Muller and the Jones Ice Shelf.

Larsen B had been stable for at least 10,000 years.(Gilbert 2005)

IMJAOne Huge Glacial Melt

lake

27 Dangerous

82% Glaciers retreating

10% permafrost

Brown Clouds

additional warming

Water supply

~2 Billion

4oC heating at 2km Cooling below50% Artificial Cooling (Ramanathan 2006, Dutt 2008)

Tibet 1.8oC in 50years (Wang Ges Res Let 2008)

Prof. Ramanathan Sept 2008

SCIPPS Institute"Given that a potentially large warming is already in our rear-view

mirror, scientists and engineers must mount a massive effort and develop solutions for adapting to climate change and for

mitigating it.”

Carbon level at 20052.4C (1.4-4.3C)

(PNAS SEPT 2008)

Super Typhoon Choi-Wan

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/pix/tools_and_data/gallery/mitch_01.jpg

http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/earth/images/hurricane_needs_gif_image.html&edu=high&fr=t%20t

Hurricances - frequency & intensity

(Vecchi J. Climate 2008) (Mann Nature 2009)

"In a normal summer the jet stream is to the north of the UK. This allows the Azores high to build across the UK and bring settled and more typical summer weather for

the UK,"

said Mr Corbett.

S. Lane Geography 2008

“As with the climate change hypothesis, the possibility that the summer 2007

events are a normal but unusual happening cannot yet be dismissed.”

“This, of course, begs the question of why in the last three summers have we

seen this southwards shift in the position of the jet stream?”

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/weather_news/news/archive/2009/august/ch/7f42c3feb8/article/the_jet_stream_how_it_can_make_or_break_our_summer_weather.html

http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20090818_Figure5.png

Jets are moving Pole wards(Caldeira Ges Res Let 2008)

California will experience long droughts(Oster; Earth and Planetry Science letters Nov 2009)

Tropical Zones Expanding Rapidly (Seidel NatureGeo 2008)

2-8o already

Models only 2o by 2100

Storm paths

Hydrological cycles

H2O Stratosphere

El Nino Modiko

Austrailia 2009During a La Nina????

Drought conditions across south Oz,

2nd driest January Melbourne

On back of long trend of Drought

EL Nino now moderate

Swanson Ges. Res. Let. 2009Probability of recent warming due to natural

forces; 1 in 1000Zorita Ges. Res. let 2009

Tropical Deforestation and Biodiversity losses (Bradshaw Front Ecol Environ 2009)

Climate changes killing Western USA trees

X2 Death rate

Excluding pests!

^Temp ^Dryness

(Pennissi 2009)

+ve Feedback

Amazon 2000 to 2008

(NASA, 2009)

Tipping

Water! What water?

Other Aspects

Increasing extreme weather events (Nature 2008)(e.g. Flooding, Droughts, hurricanes)

Increased Diseases (EEA 2004) (e.g. Tick Born Fever, Dengue)

Seasons shifting (Spring earlier)

Deforestation

Migrations towards the poles (EEA 2004)

Increasing Desserts (China, Sahel, Australia, America, Sahara, Spain)

Changes in rain patterns (England, Spain)

Increased Global Rainfall Amounts (Nature 2007)

Increasing Forest Fires (Science 2006) Greece 2007

Positive feedbacks loops (e.g. Albedo effects, Methane permafrost, Droughts, Burning peat)

Climate ModelsAn Assessment of Strengths and

LimitationsU.S. Climate Change Science

ProgramSynthesis and Assessment Product 3.1

July 2008www.climatescience.gov.

Climate Change 2009Faster Change & More Serious Risks

(Steffen 2009)Australian Gov Dept. Climate Change

The risk of continuing rapid climate change is

focusing attention on the need to adapt, and the

possible limits to adaptation.

Climate sensitivity(Annan 2006 Ges. Res. Let.)

Climate SensitivityChanges over time.....?????!!

(Hegerl Nature 2006)

Albedohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Albedo-e_hg.svg

Hannes Grobe

Hansen: Science 2008

Climate Sensitivity

3.7-5.4oCper CO2 doubling

(Tung et al Ges.Res.Let 2008)

Warming for Business as Usual 4.5-5.4oC

(Sokolov, MIT 2009)

Greenhouse gasses going up(Huang MIT JUNE 09)

2009 – C02 = 390 ppm

Highest in 20 million years (Science 2009)

Highest: 800,000 years (Lu¨thi Nature 2008)

400 ppm maximum recommended(International Climate Change Task Force 2005)

410ppm DIA (tipping point) (Harvey Enr. Res let. 2007)(with 50% reduction in other warming forcings)

450 ppm CO2 e - currently at ~460ppm CO2 e

Global Carbon emissions now rising at 3.2% a year (Nature 2006)

2ppm a year and rising (400ppm ~ 2012-5)

.

Carbon and Climate System Coupling on Timescales from the Precambrian to the Anthropocene∗

(Doney 2007 Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour.)

CO2 is integral to climate changes

CO2 stays in the atmosphere possibly for centuries....

Sinks determines how long

Reducing sinks (Canadell CSIRO, PNAS Nov 2007)

Rate of rise of atmospheric CO2 rising1990’s - 1.3% year

2000- 2006- 3.3% year

Economic growth - 65% increaseDecreasing sinks - 35% increase

Oceans and LandWas 600kg/ton now 550kg/ton and declining!

IPCC keep these the same or make them grow!!

“All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.”

CO2 concentrations don’t fallby just stopping emissions

(Lowe Env.Res.Let 2009)

Balancing the Global Carbon Budget (Houghton 2007: Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.)

CO2 Sinks falling oceanic and terrestrial

Southern Ocean sink which absorbed 15% of CO2 now releasing CO2 due increases in winds over the oceans

Dunford (Science May 2007)

50% Reduction of Costs of Japan (Park Ges.Res.Let 2008)

Ocean sink 50% reduced N.Atlantic(Schuster Oct 2007 J. OF GEO. Res)

Terrestrial sinks down due to world wide droughts, forest fires (Siberia 2003, Greece 2007, Amazon 2005, Oz 2009, Greece

2009, California, Southern Europe and so on!!!!), increasing deforestation, crop failures

~ 64% of a doubling already

280ppm to 385ppm

37.5% of a doubling

Add in additions of Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Ozone, Hydro-fluorocarbons, CFC’s

Nitro-trifloride (NF3)

~460ppmCOE

64% Doubling

NF3: The new Green House Gas

Silicon Semi-conductors cleaning agentFlat Screen TV’s

CPUSolar Panels

500 yrs17000x power

CO267Mt CO2e 2007

(Prather Ges Res Let 2008)

Dangerous Climate Change1.5-2C above pre-industrial

(EU, IPCC, Hansen 2007)

Already 0.74C

Food securityEconomic Problems

Eco-System CollapsesSea Level Rise

Population MigrationsBiodiversity losses

Severe Weather Events

Martin Parry, Nature 2009 Grantham Institute for Climate Change andCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial

College London

“The consequentdemands on adaptation will be enormous,

many times those currently envisaged.

We should therefore give policies of adaptation

much more urgent attention”.

Stabilizing climate requiresZero emissions

H. Damon Matthews and Ken Caldeira Geo. Phys Res (Feb. 2008)

No Carbon .. A.S.A.P

50% into sinks quickly

25% ~1000years

25% CO2 emitted ~5000years

Ocean’s lag means temperatures remain

raised for 1000’s years

Warming in the Pipeline

0.75oC already

0.6oC within next ~20 years

(IPCC 2007, Hansen 2008)

Safe boundaries

(Rockström, Nature 2009)

Biodiversity

Current 6th Mass Extinction

1. Habitat Loss (Deforestation)2. Climate Change (frogs)

3. Invasive alien Species4. Overexploitation5. Pollution / Waste

(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005)

“This mass extinction is the fastest in Earth’s 4.5-billion-yearhistory and, unlike prior extinctions, is mainly the result of human

activity and not of natural phenomena.”

(American Museum of Natural History 1998)

Biodiversity simplifying(Prof. Jeremy Jackson Scripps Institute Aug 2008)

“Intricate marine food webs with large animals are being converted into

simplistic ecosystems dominated by microbes,

toxic algal blooms, jellyfish and disease.”

Wetlands FAO 20083.6MillionHectares since 1980

102,000 hectares a year60% lost last 100years

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Drained Peat Bog 2-10t/h/yTropical swamp forest 40t/h/y

"Lessening the stress on wetlands caused by pollution and other human assaults

will improve their resiliency and represents an important climate change

adaptation strategy”

"Wetland rehabilitation, meanwhile, represents a viable alternative to

artificial flood control and dredging efforts that may be needed to cope with

the larger, more frequent floods predicted in a hotter world."

Wolfgang Junk UN:Conference 2008

Cheaper to save than restore!

Harlequin Frogs Extinctions>100 gone now!!!!!!(Nature 2004, Nature April 2007)

RATE OF RISE THAT COUNTSAll Associate with CO2 rises and volcanic supereruptions

Wignall Elements 2005 Mayhew Oct 2007 Proc. R. Soc. B Ratallack 2009 Geo.Soc.Bull.Am.

Accelerated Global Warming

100 years rate of rise ~0.07oC a decade

50 years rate of rise ~0.13oC a decade

30 years rate of rise ~0.2oC a decade(Hansen: PNAS Sept 2006)

15 years rate of rise ~0.3oC a decade personal calc& Smith et al. (Science Aug 2007)

This is fastest the earth has ever risen

Jan-August 2009 2nd Hottest

Sengor PNAS 2008

“The introduction of a global annihilating agent, namely humans, that creates

functional deserts for much of the rest of the biosphere (human dwellings) at a rate

unknown in the history of the

biosphere during………..

If unchecked, the present extinction threatens to be the greatest killer of all

time”

GEO 4 2007“Imagine a world in which environmental change threatens people’s

health, physical security, material needs and social cohesion.

A world beset by increasingly intense and frequent storms, and by rising sea levels.

People experience extensive flooding, while others endure intense droughts.

Species extinction occurs at rates never before witnessed.

Safe water is increasingly limited, hindering economic activity.

Land degradation endangers the lives of millions of people”

This is the world today!!

1.5oC is dangerous... (Smith PNAS 2008)

Chances of avoiding 2oC

(Schaeffer PNAS 2008)

Level of CO2 Safe1.5oC-2oC

?? 325-350 ppm(Hansen, May 2008)

Many More Agree

350.org

Scheffer 2006

Range of CO2 increases due to feedbacks

12-41ppm CO2 /100years

CO2 Arithmetic (Broecker 2007, Science)

For every 4Gt of CO2 emissions, 1ppm increase, assuming sinks at 60%!

Current 385ppm and ~8GT a year

Still increasing and sinks decreasing

Southern Ocean Upwelling Increasing Winds!!!!!

400ppm in less than 5 years

CO2e 460PPM

URGENT

Sequestering CO2 is essential to avoid Dangerous Climate Change

We Have no Carbon Budget to play with

? HIGH EMBODIED ENERGY ITEMS?

350ppm means removing 20 years CO2 emissions

How can we achieve this?No Fossil Fuels

Change Agriculture No Pesticides

No Petrochemical FertilizersRe-forestation

Carbon into SoilNo Waste

CHANGE HOW WE LIVE!

REDUCE ENERGY USE

EVERYONE INDIVIDUALLY??How Much??

As much as you can

70% population in Cities 2050 (Editor Nature Sept 2008)

“Confronting the challenges of rampant urbanization demands

integrated, multidisciplinary

approaches,

and new thinking”

Adapting for Population Migrations

Carbon Capture Technology Expensive

?Grow more trees “The US Department of Energy has

pulled out of a flagship project to build the first ‘clean’ coal-fired

power plant in the United States”(Nature Feb 2008)

"Because the truth is that promoting science isn't just about providing resources – it's about protecting free and open inquiry.

It's about ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted or obscured by politics or ideology."

(Barack Obama 2009)

Geo-engineering The Climate

(Royal Society Sept 2009)http://royalsociety.org/displaypagedoc.asp?id=35151

“Climate change is happening. Its impacts and costs will be large, serious, and

unevenly spread.

The impacts may be reduced by adaptation, and moderated by mitigation, especially by reducing emissions of greenhouse

gases.”

"We are already staring 1.6 °C in the face,"

(Shepherd 2009)

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17716

“My guess would be that there is a 50-50 chance that we can achieve something with emissions reductions,“

John Shepherd University of Southampton, UK,

chair of the Royal Society group behind the report.

"

Geo-engineering The Climate(Royal Society, Sept 2009)

http://royalsociety.org/displaypagedoc.asp?id=35151

State of World Report 2009

Take an area 4.3 x the size of the UK to supply wood Just for heating

(Natural Resources and Life Sciences Education, July 2009)

Transport(Chester Env.Res.Let 2009)

Wind FarmsCould we over do it

again??

0.15-0.73C Increase Land Temps for 1/3 Energy needs as well ill defined changes in clouds and rainfall elsewhere, 7% energy small to

no effects

MIT 2009

Keith

PNAS 2009 similar!

Attract and Kill Bats (Moths!)

Horn 2008

Conservation REALLY works

CARBON SEQUESTRATIONPRACTICES

Non-chemical rotation farming

Re-forestation

Increasing biosphere

Biochar

Carbon SequestrationHemp - 500kg CO2 per tonne

Well suited for Organic Farming systems

Doesn’t displace food crop, improves soils

Resistant to weeds and Pests

No Pesticides, fertilisers

Low maintenance crop

Improves local biodiversity

Profitable for farmers

All parts of plant useful

Biodiversity and Agriculture report( UNEP May 2008)

Policymakers, promote & endorse

Policy changes to promote sustainable practices

Biodiversity-friendly & enhancing agriculture

Pay farmers for adopting environmentally friendly practices

including mitigating climate changes

Training & education

Support local level management

Employ Ecosystem Approach

Energy Reduce Use 90-95%

“Unpleasant as it is we must face the fact there is no magic bullet, that will give us unlimited energy.

One must conclude that the future of our civilisation depends critically on reducing the use of energy

drastically and rapidly”

J. W. Storm van Leeuwen, Independent Civil Nuclear Consultant:

Oxford Research Group July 2006

NUCLEAR TO EXPENSIVE, LARGE GHG LEGACY, WASTE, Childhood Leukaemia, Bombs, Mining,

How? - Education

“Since education is one of the fundamental strategies to address most global challenges, it is important to identify the most effective educational materials,

curricula, and distribution media for global education as well as institutional arrangements to accelerate

learning”

(UN: “State Of The Future” 2006)

Plan for Adaption(Flooding, Type of Crops, Migrations)

Enable through personal example

Find ways of being an example...

Fossil Fuel Free behaviour

Communities to work together

Increasing biodiversity through land management gardening & conservation

Hunter Gatherer?(Todd Schorr)

CO2 missions per head populationWorld Mapper

Gas Usage

Coal Use for electricity

Oil for electricity

Human Poverty

Emanuel J. Climate 2007

Solid wall houses could

yield 17% of

savings~55% Rural25%

urban areas