Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Services, Products, Partnerships, Potential Services, Products, Partnerships, Potential

for thefor the

PRIDE Alaska Coastal ClimatologiesPRIDE Alaska Coastal Climatologies

Wind/Wave WorkshopWind/Wave Workshop

Jim LaverJim Laver

August 2-3, 2005August 2-3, 2005

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.govwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

CPC Contribution to Climate ServicesCPC Contribution to Climate Services

• Mission: Assess and Predict Mission: Assess and Predict short-term short-term climate variability climate variability

“ “short-termshort-term” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year;” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year;

and consider the longer term contextand consider the longer term context

• Responsibilities & Scope: Responsibilities & Scope:

Deliver operational climate “nowcasts” and predictionsDeliver operational climate “nowcasts” and predictions

Make them consistent - globally, nationally and regionallyMake them consistent - globally, nationally and regionally

Provide an historical context – with help from NCDCProvide an historical context – with help from NCDC

Improve them!Improve them!

• Vision:Vision: Climate services as reliable and applicable as Climate services as reliable and applicable as

weather servicesweather services

Climate ProductsClimate Products

• Global Environmental Monitoring:Global Environmental Monitoring:

Where: atmosphere, oceans, land, iceWhere: atmosphere, oceans, land, ice

What: temperature, precipitation, circulation, drought, SSTWhat: temperature, precipitation, circulation, drought, SST

Alaska/Arctic parameters?Alaska/Arctic parameters?

• Climate Outlooks:Climate Outlooks:

Where: U. S., U. S. Interests abroad, oceansWhere: U. S., U. S. Interests abroad, oceans

What: temperature & precipitation anomaliesWhat: temperature & precipitation anomalies

hazards, drought, hazards, drought, hurricane season, El Niño/La hurricane season, El Niño/La NiñaNiña

Probabilities of extremes? Storminess? Others for Probabilities of extremes? Storminess? Others for AK?AK?

First Order, Cooperative, Automated,…

• CPC is interested in providing real-time monitoring products

• A historical climatology is required for proper historical context

• Focus has been on Temperature & Precipitation; Other Parameters??

Products – via CPC Home PageProducts – via CPC Home Page

Includes:AO, NAO,PDO, AAO

U. S. Hazards Assessment – Dec 2003

Example: explanation of 8-14 day forecast map.Example: explanation of 8-14 day forecast map.

A

N

N

N

N

50% chance A,33% chance N,17% chance B

27% chance A,33% chance N,40% chance B

33.3% chance A,33.3% chance N,33.3% chance B

Week2 Outlook

CASCDC

Scripps

CFS IRI

OCN+skill mask

OCN

ECCA

OFFICIAL

Seasonal Outlook Tools

Improving Services & Products Improving Services & Products Through PartnershipsThrough Partnerships

• National Weather Service:National Weather Service: NCEP centers, regional offices, NCEP centers, regional offices, local offices (WFOs), river forecast centerslocal offices (WFOs), river forecast centers

• NOAA:NOAA: research labs (e.g., Boulder, Princeton, Miami), research labs (e.g., Boulder, Princeton, Miami), applied research funding (Office of Global Programs)applied research funding (Office of Global Programs)

• Inter-Agency:Inter-Agency: USDA (drought, global crops), FEMA (hazards), USDA (drought, global crops), FEMA (hazards), NASA (outlooks; ozone), EPA & DoD (ultraviolet forecasts), NASA (outlooks; ozone), EPA & DoD (ultraviolet forecasts), USAID (humanitarian support), DoE (degree days)USAID (humanitarian support), DoE (degree days)

• Academic & International:Academic & International: universities, international desks, universities, international desks, bi-lateral agreements, World Meteorological Organization, bi-lateral agreements, World Meteorological Organization, Pacific partners, International Research Institute (Columbia U.)Pacific partners, International Research Institute (Columbia U.)

Potential:Potential:Areas of Common Interest?Areas of Common Interest?

• NOAA’s Climate Test Bed – accelerate improvements in NOAA’s Climate Test Bed – accelerate improvements in climate predictions – subseasonal, seasonal, interannual, climate predictions – subseasonal, seasonal, interannual, decadal trends?decadal trends?

• Multi-model dynamical ensemblesMulti-model dynamical ensembles

• Reanalysis Reanalysis Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System, Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System, Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere, Regional, Arctic,…Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere, Regional, Arctic,…

• Assessment of economical benefits of long-range forecastsAssessment of economical benefits of long-range forecasts

• Global ocean monitoring and modeling (GODAS)Global ocean monitoring and modeling (GODAS)

• Describe current state of the climate better - “Nowcasting”Describe current state of the climate better - “Nowcasting”

• New product possibilities ?? - forecasts of opportunity, New product possibilities ?? - forecasts of opportunity, extremes, Week3, Week4, extremes, Week3, Week4, Winds, Waves,Winds, Waves, Storms Storms

Reprocessing and Reanalysis are Essential

Given the continuing improvement in our understanding Given the continuing improvement in our understanding of climate observations and the need for long time of climate observations and the need for long time series, reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate series, reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing efforts, but risks and limitations abound.ongoing efforts, but risks and limitations abound.

Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate SystemWorkshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado

National/international coordination National/international coordination is essential to a successful program is essential to a successful program

GEOSS must have an OACS!GEOSS must have an OACS!

The Domain:

Regional Reanalysis Domain

How does it complement theproposed Arctic Reanalysis?

The EndThe End

(extra slides follow)(extra slides follow)

CPCCPC

CPC and NOAA’s GoalsCPC and NOAA’s Goals

Climate ForcingClimate &

EcosystemsObservations &

AnalysisRegional

Decision Support

Predictions &Projections

(includes CPC)

Pro

gra

mP

rog

ram

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Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and RespondRespond

OUTCOMES

1. A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions

2. Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions

NOAA’s Climate Program Matrix and NOAA’s Climate Program Matrix and Relationship to 2005 NOAA Strategic PlanRelationship to 2005 NOAA Strategic Plan