Climate Prediction Center UpdateClimate Prediction Center Update

Briefing for Briefing for

OFCM – Committee for Climate Analysis, OFCM – Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and ServicesMonitoring, and Services

Jim Laver, CPCJim Laver, CPC

May 3, 2005May 3, 2005

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.govwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

OutlineOutline

• NOAA’s Climate Goals, Program, MatrixNOAA’s Climate Goals, Program, Matrix

• CPC Services, Products, PartnershipsCPC Services, Products, Partnerships

• The Climate Test BedThe Climate Test Bed

• ReanalysisReanalysis

CPCCPC

NOAA’s Climate Goals, Program, MatrixNOAA’s Climate Goals, Program, Matrix

Climate ForcingClimate &

EcosystemsObservations &

AnalysisRegional

Decision Support

Predictions &Projections

(includes CPC)

Pro

gra

mP

rog

ram

ss

Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and RespondRespond

OUTCOMES

1. A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions

2. Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions

NOAA’s Climate Program Matrix and NOAA’s Climate Program Matrix and Relationship to its 2005 Strategic PlanRelationship to its 2005 Strategic Plan

CPC: Climate ServicesCPC: Climate Services

• Mission: Assess and Predict Mission: Assess and Predict short-term short-term climate variability climate variability

“ “short-termshort-term” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year;” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year;

consider the longer term contextconsider the longer term context

• Responsibilities/Scope: Deliver and improve - operational Responsibilities/Scope: Deliver and improve - operational climate “nowcasts” and predictions; national and “global”, climate “nowcasts” and predictions; national and “global”, with an historical context with an historical context

• Vision: Climate predictions as reliable and applicable as Vision: Climate predictions as reliable and applicable as weather predictionsweather predictions

Services: Climate & WeatherServices: Climate & Weather

Extreme EventsExtreme Events

Tropical StormsTropical Storms

Droughts/FloodsDroughts/Floods

TrendsTrends

Tropics - El Niño, La NiñaTropics - El Niño, La Niña

Extratropics - Jet PatternsExtratropics - Jet Patterns

Climate Change

Climate Change

WeatherWeather Climate Variability

Climate Variability

CPC Service ActivitiesCPC Service Activities

• Climate Monitoring – Regional, GlobalClimate Monitoring – Regional, Global

• Climate Outlooks – U. S. & U. S. InterestsClimate Outlooks – U. S. & U. S. Interests

• Outreach and Dissemination – Internet, AWIPS, Outreach and Dissemination – Internet, AWIPS, NAWIPS, E-MailNAWIPS, E-Mail

Climate Monitoring ActivitiesClimate Monitoring Activities

• State of Global Oceans – Surface, SubsurfaceState of Global Oceans – Surface, Subsurface

• Global Precipitation and Surface Temperature Global Precipitation and Surface Temperature

• Drought – Global Land/Soil ConditionsDrought – Global Land/Soil Conditions

• Global & Regional Atmospheric CirculationGlobal & Regional Atmospheric Circulation

• Stratospheric Circulation / OzoneStratospheric Circulation / Ozone

• Cryosphere – Arctic & Antarctic IceCryosphere – Arctic & Antarctic Ice

• Episodic Events – Volcanoes, Solar ActivityEpisodic Events – Volcanoes, Solar Activity

Multi-Agency Monitoring ProductMulti-Agency Monitoring Product

Climate Outlook ProductsClimate Outlook Products

• Tropical Pacific SSTs (ENSO)Tropical Pacific SSTs (ENSO)

• Hazard AssessmentsHazard Assessments

- Day 3-14- Day 3-14

• Precipitation and Temperature OutlooksPrecipitation and Temperature Outlooks

- Days 6-10, Days 8-14, Monthly & Seasonal- Days 6-10, Days 8-14, Monthly & Seasonal

• Seasonal Drought OutlooksSeasonal Drought Outlooks

• Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic, Pacific)Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic, Pacific)

• UV IndexUV Index

Products – Hazards AssessmentsProducts – Hazards Assessments

Making a Seasonal OutlookMaking a Seasonal Outlookfor April-June 2005for April-June 2005

OCN

CASCDC

Scripps

CFS IRI

OCN+skill mask

OCN

ECCA

OFFICIAL

Absent: CCA, SMT, MRK, CA-SST,

local effects, judgment

Multi-Decadal Conditions Associatedwith Above Normal Hurricane Activity

These conditions are conducive to tropical storm and hurricane formation as disturbances move westward from Africa into the low-shear environment (red area) of the tropical Atlantic.

Higher Pressure Aloft

Favorable midlevel jet stream

Upper-level EasterliesExpand to Cover Tropical Atlantic

Weaker Easterly Trade Winds

Weaker Easterly Trade Winds

August-October

Warmer SSTsLower Surface Pressure

Low Vertical Wind Shear

Since 1995, 8 of 10 seasons have been above normal. We can expectcontinued high levels of activity for perhaps the next 10-20 years.

Product for DoD:Product for DoD:International UV Index OutlookInternational UV Index Outlook

We Improve Services & Products We Improve Services & Products Through PartnershipsThrough Partnerships

• NWSNWS

– Regions, WFOs, RFCs (e.g., drought, product dissemination/interpretation, NAME project )

– Climate Services Division (outreach; user feedback; identifying user needs; education)

– EMC (dynamical seasonal predictions; week-2 outlooks; Reanalysis – Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System)

– TPC (Hurricane Season Outlooks)

– HPC (International Desks, WX/CX connection/hazards, HydroMet Testbed)

– OPC and SPC (Hazards Assessments)

Partnerships, Cont’dPartnerships, Cont’d

• NOAANOAA

– CDC (seasonal outlooks; week-2 outlooks; climate monitoring; ENSO outlooks; climate variability research; climate attribution and Reanalysis….; MOU)

– GFDL (global ocean models; ocean data assimilation; climate attribution)

– NCDC (climate monitoring; drought monitoring and outlooks; annual climate summaries; MOU)

– OGP (applied research support; ARCs)

– AOML (Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks)

Partnerships, Cont’dPartnerships, Cont’d

• Inter-agency

– USDA (drought monitoring and outlooks; global crop monitoring related Wx/Cx support; Crop Bulletin)

– NASA/GMAO (seasonal and intraseasonal outlooks; Ozone monitoring)

– EPA (ultraviolet monitoring and forecasts)

– DoD (ultraviolet monitoring)

– FEMA (seasonal and extended-range forecasts)

– USAID (humanitarian support; climate monitoring)

– DoE (heating/cooling degree days)

Partnerships, Cont’dPartnerships, Cont’d

• University & International

– International Desks (African Desk, South American,….)

– COLA; U WA; Scripps; COAPS (seasonal outlooks; applied research)

– Bi-lateral agreements (China, Korea, Vietnam)

– Canada; Mexico (North American Drought Monitor; North American Monsoon Eexperiment)

– WMO (ENSO outlooks; Int’l Regional Climate Centers)

– IRI (dynamical forecasts/tools; Advisory Board)

– Pacific (Monthly New Zealand/PR conference calls)

Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

The NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB)The NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB)

Climate Community

Climate Community

NOAA Research &

Development

NOAA Research &

Development

NOAA ClimateForecast

Operations

NOAA ClimateForecast

Operations

Mission:Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

The CTB “Message”:The CTB “Message”:Why it’s ImportantWhy it’s Important

The NOAA CTB will:The NOAA CTB will:

• Enhance a cooperative partnership between NOAA operational and research Enhance a cooperative partnership between NOAA operational and research centers and the broader outside research community by providing an centers and the broader outside research community by providing an operational testing environmentoperational testing environment

• Deliver opportunities for goal directed research using the Climate Forecast Deliver opportunities for goal directed research using the Climate Forecast System, other climate models, and a state of the art multi-model ensemble System, other climate models, and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate predictionapproach to improving climate prediction

• Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NOAA Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts operational climate forecasts

• Increase the range and scope of applications, and the economic benefit, of Increase the range and scope of applications, and the economic benefit, of operational climate forecasts for policy-making and decision-making end users.operational climate forecasts for policy-making and decision-making end users.

Reanalysis: Why it’s ImportantReanalysis: Why it’s Important

The Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS)The Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS)

The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System (OACS)An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System (OACS)

Societal Benefits

Climate Variability and

ChangeOcean

Resources

DisastersEnergy

HealthAgriculture

EcosystemWater Resources

GEOSS--- Creating a “System of Systems”GEOSS--- Creating a “System of Systems”

Global Observing Systems

GCOSGOOSGTOS

WHYCOSWorld Weather

IGBPIOOSCEOSIGOS

Global Observing Systems

GCOSGOOSGTOS

WHYCOSWorld Weather

IGBPIOOSCEOSIGOS

National/Multinational Observing Systems

Satellites

Surface Obs.

Radar

Aircraft

Ocean Observations

Paleo-data

National/Multinational Observing Systems

Satellites

Surface Obs.

Radar

Aircraft

Ocean Observations

Paleo-data

Private Sector Observing Systems

Satellites

Mesonets

Lightning

Commercial Aircraft

Private Sector Observing Systems

Satellites

Mesonets

Lightning

Commercial Aircraft

25

Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System

Reanalysis and Reanalysis and The Climate Change Science Program The Climate Change Science Program

(CCSP)(CCSP)

Proposed synthesis and assessment topic – Product 1.3:Proposed synthesis and assessment topic – Product 1.3:““Reanalysis of historical climate data for key atmospheric Reanalysis of historical climate data for key atmospheric features. Implications for attribution of causes offeatures. Implications for attribution of causes of observed observed change.”change.”

• Significance:Significance: “Understanding the magnitude of past climate variations is key to increasing confidence in the understanding of how and why climate has changed and how it may change in the future.” (CCSP Strategic Plan, chapter 2). (CCSP Strategic Plan, chapter 2).

• Primary end use:Primary end use: “To inform policy decisions.” (chap. 11). “To inform policy decisions.” (chap. 11).

• Time frame for product:Time frame for product: 2-4 years (chap. 11). 2-4 years (chap. 11).

• Proposed lead agency:Proposed lead agency: NOAA. NOAA.

• Supporting agencies:Supporting agencies: NASA, DOE, (NSF). NASA, DOE, (NSF).

Reprocessing and Reanalysis are essential

Given the continuing improvement in our understanding Given the continuing improvement in our understanding of climate observations and the need for long time of climate observations and the need for long time series, reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate series, reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing efforts, but risks and limitations abound.ongoing efforts, but risks and limitations abound.

•Workshop report distributed•See workshop web site (http://www.joss.ucar.edu/joss_psg/meetings/climatesystem/) for pdf version of report and background information from the workshop.

Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate SystemWorkshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado

The Workshop concluded that the U.S. must establish a National The Workshop concluded that the U.S. must establish a National Program for Program for Ongoing Analysis of the Climate SystemOngoing Analysis of the Climate System to provide a to provide a retrospective and ongoing physically consistent synthesis of retrospective and ongoing physically consistent synthesis of earth observations in order to:earth observations in order to:

• Design and guide operation of observing systemsDesign and guide operation of observing systems

• Produce and sustain the growing climate recordProduce and sustain the growing climate record

• Reconcile disparate climate observations and characterize Reconcile disparate climate observations and characterize analysis uncertaintyanalysis uncertainty

• Establish initial conditions for climate predictionEstablish initial conditions for climate prediction

• Validate prediction and projection models on all time scalesValidate prediction and projection models on all time scales

• Provide long time series of global and regional climatic analyses Provide long time series of global and regional climatic analyses for all types of prediction and projection verificationfor all types of prediction and projection verification

Reanalysis - OACSReanalysis - OACSWorkshop ConclusionsWorkshop Conclusions

Reanalysis Summary & StrategyReanalysis Summary & Strategy

• A complete climate observing system requiresA complete climate observing system requires both ongoing, near-real time both ongoing, near-real time analyses of the physical climate together with periodic reanalyses that use analyses of the physical climate together with periodic reanalyses that use improved data sets and data assimilation methodsimproved data sets and data assimilation methods. . BothBoth are essential are essential components of a long-term climate observing strategy.components of a long-term climate observing strategy.

• The CCSP requirement/deliverable provides an opportunity to initiate The CCSP requirement/deliverable provides an opportunity to initiate planning needed for development of the OACS.planning needed for development of the OACS.

– CCSP high-priority synthesis and assessment products are short-term CCSP high-priority synthesis and assessment products are short-term deliverables (next 1-4 years). While they may take different forms, they deliverables (next 1-4 years). While they may take different forms, they are typically envisioned as “state-of-science” reports.are typically envisioned as “state-of-science” reports.

– Without doubt, the CCSP synthesis reports place another “burden” on the Without doubt, the CCSP synthesis reports place another “burden” on the science community. They are also an opportunity. science community. They are also an opportunity.

• So far, climate analysis and reanalysis efforts have focused principally on the So far, climate analysis and reanalysis efforts have focused principally on the atmosphere. A longer-term strategy must be developed to analyze and atmosphere. A longer-term strategy must be developed to analyze and eventually bring together the other, disparate components of the Earth eventually bring together the other, disparate components of the Earth system (oceans, land, cryosphere, hydrology, biosphere) through coupled system (oceans, land, cryosphere, hydrology, biosphere) through coupled model assimilation. This will enable a more comprehensive synthesis and model assimilation. This will enable a more comprehensive synthesis and understanding of the climate system.understanding of the climate system.

• International coordination is absolutely essential to a successful program – International coordination is absolutely essential to a successful program – GEOSS must have an OACS!GEOSS must have an OACS!