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CMD Forecast Report: Q4 2014 November 3, 2014

Sources: CMD (formerly Reed Construction Data)/Oxford Economics. Forecast reflects actual starts through Q3 2014.

Highlights

U.S. construction starts were broadly in line with expectations in Q3, as stronger starts in non-residential and civil engineering sectors largely offset a downside surprise for the residential segment.

The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy remains buoyant, underpinned by stronger wages and rising business confidence. This should spur a pick-up in construction activity, particularly in the residential and non-residential segments. Single-family residential starts, in particular, are still some way below their long-term average, so the scope for catch-up is considerable. Civil engineering, which is much less cyclical, is forecast to grow at a slower pace.

Canadian starts were about 13% above our expectations, due almost entirely to the construction of a large potash mine in Saskatchewan. Non-residential starts were closer to expectations, while residential construction fell short.

The Canadian economy is forecast to grow at a reasonable pace of 2-2½% over the forecast period, slower than in the U.S., as high levels of household debt will contain growth in consumer spending. This will have the biggest impact on the residential segment, which is forecast to average about half the pace of growth as the U.S., but both the non-residential and civil engineering sectors should benefit from stronger public and private sector investment.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019USMacro variablesGDP 2.2 2.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8

Population growth 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Unemployment rate (%) 7.4 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0

Real disposable income -0.2 2.3 2.3 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.4

Central bank rate (%) 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.7 3.6 3.9

10-year government yield (%) 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.2

Construction startsTotal starts 5.8 6.6 12.1 7.3 4.9 4.0 3.6

Residential 13.4 5.3 19.9 10.4 6.3 5.2 4.6

Non-residential building -0.3 7.0 11.0 6.7 4.7 3.5 2.9

Civil engineering 3.6 8.5 -0.1 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3

CanadaMacro variablesGDP 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.1

Population growth 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9

Unemployment rate (%) 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.4

Real disposable income 2.4 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3

Central bank rate (%) 1.0 1.0 1.1 2.0 3.3 3.9 4.0

10-year government yield (%) 2.3 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6

Exchange rate C$ per US$ 1.03 1.10 1.14 1.13 1.11 1.09 1.08

Construction startsTotal starts 14.2 -16.8 11.9 8.2 6.1 5.1 3.8

Residential -9.1 -5.7 6.6 5.9 4.8 4.6 4.5

Non-residential building -12.0 -18.9 12.0 14.3 10.4 9.2 4.9

Civil engineering 51.7 -21.6 15.0 7.0 4.9 3.4 3.0

Summary forecasts(Annual percentage changes unless specified otherwise)

CMD Forecast Report: Q4 2014 Sources: CMD/Oxford Economics

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Overview Q3 U.S. construction starts broadly in line with expectations

Total U.S. construction starts came in a shade

below our expectations in Q3 at $134bn. Stronger-than-expected starts in both the non-residential and civil engineering segments

were more than offset by a weaker residential sector. The unanticipated weakness in the

residential sector is consistent with other

measures of housing activity. New and existing home sales, for instance, were lower than expected early in the year as weather

disruptions and falls in affordability conditions

weighed on activity.

On the upside, civil engineering came in above expectations at $32.8bn, as new road construction projects in a number of states hit

record highs in Q3. This positive result is

particularly surprising given that the sequester measures are continuing to weigh on public-sector spending. Non-residential construction

starts also surprised slightly to the upside, as all subsectors except medical and retail

outperformed expectations.

U.S. economy on track for 3% growth in 2015… A recent spate of positive data suggests that the U.S. economy is healthy despite the large contraction of GDP in Q1. Real GDP growth

rebounded to 4.6% annualized in Q2 on the

back of strong final sales and business investment. We expect the economy to

average about 3% in the second half of the year, taking GDP growth in 2014 as a whole to 2.2%.

GDP growth is seen rising to 3.1% in 2015, underpinned by a stronger outlook for both households and business. An improving labor

market and rising real wages should spur an

acceleration in consumer spending. Indeed, nonfarm payroll employment has been

increasing by around 220,000 jobs per month throughout 2014 and the unemployment rate

has dropped under 6% for the first time in six years. Moreover, business investment is also

forecast to pick up as firms come up against

capacity constraints and seek to replace aging capital.

Housing activity was subpar in the first half of 2014, as affordability fell sharply, but this trend

should reverse as rising incomes and

improving confidence support activity. Residential investment’s contribution to GDP growth should pick up in 2015, and over the

longer-term, favorable demographics and an acceleration in new household formation will

create sustained demand for new housing.

Inflation is forecast to edge up in the latter part of 2014, but it remains comfortably below the Fed’s 2% inflation target. As such, the Fed will

likely maintain its dovish stance over the coming months, with the first rate hike not expected until Q2 2015.

…and the construction sector should benefit

Construction starts are expected to benefit

from the resurgence in the U.S.

macroeconomy. Starts in the residential sector are forecast to display stable growth 2014, as an improving labor market – unemployment

dropped below 6% in September – and low

mortgage rates feed demand. After a slow start to the year dogged by harsh winter

weather, single-family starts have become the torch bearers for residential starts over the last two quarters, with annual growth averaging

9%. Important to note is that single-family

starts remain significantly below their pre-crisis levels – unlike multi-family starts which

recovered their 2006 level last year – meaning there is significant scope for catch-up in the

sector. With U.S. population growth averaging

a solid pace of 0.8%pa over the forecast period, we are anticipating average rapid growth in the single-family sector over 2014-

19, with starts set to rise to $250 billion by 2019, from just under $150 billion in 2013.

Nonetheless, starts will still be below their

2005 peak of nearly $360 billion.


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Multi-family starts – about a quarter of the residential sector – have disappointed in the

year-to-date with successive year-on-year

declines in Q2 and Q3, resulting in a contraction being forecast for 2014. However,

over the medium-term the picture for multi-family starts is considerably brighter. From 2015 Q2, we are forecasting double digit

growth in the sector as pent up demand surfaces following the steep drop this year. Rising employment and incomes, set to rise by

more than 2½%pa in real terms, augmented by improved lending conditions will drive new

housing purchases. Additionally, household

debt-to-income ratios have fallen back towards their long-run average, giving households renewed ability to purchase housing.

The non-residential sector has performed

more robustly so far this year, with all

subsectors except commercial set to grow in 2014. Education-sector starts – 30% of the headline non-residential – have performed

strongly in the year-to-date. Particularly strong

growth has been evident in the military and industrial subsectors, though given both

segment’s relatively small size, their impact on headline non-residential starts is limited. Only commercial starts are set to decline this year,

as falls in both offices and transportation terminals drive commercial starts significantly lower than their 2013 level. In aggregate, non-

residential starts are forecast to grow this year as improving confidence and narrowing credit

spreads spurs business investment, much of

which will take the form of construction. Positive trends in employment growth, particularly in the commercial sector, also

signal underlying strength in non-residential construction starts over the next few years as

firms require extra space for new workers.

Retail construction is also likely to experience strong growth from 2015 on the back of increased consumer demand as disposable

income growth starts to pick up.

Underlying structural factors are supporting the competitiveness of the U.S. economy. Most

notably, the low energy costs associated with the shale boom continue to prop up demand

for industrial construction, as U.S. manufacturing firms, attracted by cost savings

and productivity gains, are beginning to re-

shore their operations to home soil. Manufacturing output is set to grow by a robust

4%pa through 2019 as a result. Although industrial construction is forecast to be broadly flat in 2015, following strong growth in 2014,

we do not believe this represents a long-term change in momentum. Indeed, over the medium term, we expect industrial

construction to be one of the fastest growing subsectors in the non-residential segments.

After broadly flat growth in 2014, medical

starts are also expected to display strong growth from 2015, boosted by demand from the Affordable Care Act and an aging

population, (the population over the age of 65 is set to rise by more than 3%pa).

The civil engineering sector – 22% of total starts in 2013 – is forecast to see a strong expansion in 2014. This significant upgrade to

the forecast is largely the consequence of road

construction so far this year, which suggests that efforts to address pressing U.S.

infrastructure needs are winning the day over fiscal constraints in the near term. Looking further ahead, we are forecasting broadly flat

growth in 2015. With the sequester cuts still in place, albeit to a lesser extent than in 2013-14, civil engineering growth prospects will be

modest. The less cyclical nature of civil engineering means that the sector is unlikely

to see a strong rebound as the overall

economy gains momentum, in contrast to the to residential and non-residential segments. Indeed, U.S. civil engineering construction

actually increased through the Great Recession, and starts in the sector are

currently at a record high. There is thus less

scope for catch-up than in the other two sectors. Nonetheless, over time, the impact from the sequester cuts should gradually

wane, and civil engineering growth should rise.

By 2019, we expect civil engineering starts to rise to $120 billion, from about $100 billion in

2013.


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Moderate growth also expected in Canada

The recent construction starts data in Canada construction has been marked by high levels

of volatility. Total starts came in significantly ahead of forecast in Q3. This resulted from

strong growth in the civil engineering sector,

underpinned by the construction of a large potash mine in Saskatchewan. Non-residential construction was also slightly ahead of

forecast, but the residential segment, in

contrast, came in below expectations.

The Canadian economy also grew strongly in Q2, at an annualized pace of 3.1%, driven by a surge in exports and rising private domestic

demand. But the pace of expansion will be

less rapid in H2 due to downward pressure on energy output in the coming months given the

sharp fall in global oil prices. GDP growth is forecast to average 2.1% in 2014 overall.

Looking ahead, GDP growth is expected to

maintain a similar pace of around 2-2½%pa into the medium term, driven by steady rises in

consumer spending and a rebound in business investment. Nonetheless, high levels of

household indebtedness will constrain the

pace of consumer spending growth. Household debt levels of around 170% of disposable income have prompted the

authorities to implement tighter prudential regulatory policies, which at the margin has

reduced the availability of mortgage credit.

This has been feeding through to residential construction, which is expected to decline this year.

Medium-term rebound in construction after a fall this year Total starts in 2014 are forecast to shrink

significantly on their 2013 levels, with declines broadly spread across the residential, non-

residential and civil engineering segments. The earlier-mentioned consumer debt problems and associated regulatory responses

are expected to cause residential starts to decline. Over the medium-term, we expect a steady rise in residential starts, to C$29 billion

in 2019, from just under C$24 billion in 2013.

In contrast to the U.S., residential starts in Canada are close to their long-run average, so

there is much less pent-up demand in the

sector than in the U.S.

Non-residential starts are forecast to fall sharply this year on the back of weak outturns in the commercial and institutional sectors.

Construction starts in the institutional sector

have fallen sharply from its 2011 peak (by more than 50% from 2011-14). This has taken

institutional starts some way below their estimated equilibrium level, so pent-up demand in the sector is large, particularly as

both private-sector and public-sector investment starts to pick up; after contractions in both segments this year, investment is

forecast to rise by 2½-3%pa from 2015-19. This will drive solid growth in institutional starts

as they move back towards their equilibrium

level from 2015-19. The contraction in the commercial sector likely reflects a correction from a spike in 2013, and indeed we expect

commercial starts to grow steadily, regaining

their 2013 level by 2018.

Growth in the Canadian manufacturing sector has been held back by competitiveness issues in recent years, which have been exacerbated

by the strength in the Canadian dollar.

However, a recent weakening in the currency vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar, by nearly 20% since

its high in 2012, should provide some near-term boost to the Canadian manufacturing sector. Indeed, after a contraction in 2014,

manufacturing output is forecast to rise by 2-2½%pa over the forecast period. This should spur growth in manufacturing starts as firms

start to come up against capacity constraints.

Civil engineering – which accounts for

approximately half of total construction starts – is set to decline this year even accounting for the large potash mine – but this must be seen

in the context of a strong expansion in 2013. In the short-term, we expect starts to rebound

strongly in 2015 making up some of the

ground lost this year. Civil engineering starts are set to grow more rapidly than their U.S. counterparts from 2014-19, largely a

consequence of greater fiscal capacity for


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infrastructure spending. The federal budget is in surplus, and even accounting for provincial

deficits, Canada’s overall fiscal position is far

healthier than that of its southern neighbor.

Risks to the outlook stem from both internal and external sources. Our relatively optimistic forecast for the U.S. is predicated on a

rebound in real wages, but this has not

materialised yet. There is a risk that wages could disappoint, reducing housing demand

and consumer spending.

Primary amongst the external risks is the

possibility of a Chinese financial crisis stemming from deep structural imbalances in the Chinese economy and excessive credit

growth and corporate indebtedness. Were this scenario to play out, Chinese demand would

significantly weaken, world trade would shrink

and global risk aversion would spike sharply. The North American economy would not be immune to the effects of such a global shock;

our risk modelling estimates suggest that both U.S. and Canadian GDP growth would

decelerate to the 1-2% range in 2015.

Sector Short-term drivers Long-term drivers

Non-residential building

Output trends in relevant sector; Population trends;

Capacity utilization; Borrowing costs;

Employment in relevant sector; Disposable income

Output trends in relevant sector; Employment in relevant sector

Residential

Unemployment rate; Household liabilities;

Mortgage interest rates; House prices;

Population trends

House prices; Incomes

Civil engineering

Federal/State/Provincial spending; Government borrowing costs;

Employment in government sector; Output trends in relevant sector

Federal/State/Provincial spending; Output trends in relevant sector

Drivers of headline sectors


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Level unit 2013 level 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Non-residential building US$, millions 170,874 7.0 11.0 6.7 4.7 3.5 2.9

Commercial US$, millions 28,198 -22.9 21.4 8.5 6.2 5.5 5.1

Offices US$, millions 14,763 -10.3 23.2 8.5 4.1 4.7 4.8

Transportation Terminals US$, millions 11,456 -40.2 17.7 9.9 11.2 7.7 6.1

Parking Garages US$, millions 1,979 -16.7 22.3 3.1 2.8 2.6 3.0

Community US$, millions 12,283 23.0 11.2 4.1 2.9 2.8 2.4

Amusement US$, millions 5,422 28.3 9.2 2.3 3.4 3.1 2.9

Religious US$, millions 1,709 -5.6 82.2 6.0 2.6 2.0 1.3

Sport,Convention Center US$, millions 2,878 34.0 -13.8 7.3 4.3 3.3 2.9

Library,Museum US$, millions 2,273 18.3 9.6 3.3 0.3 2.3 1.6

Educational US$, millions 48,378 11.3 8.2 4.4 3.4 1.8 1.1

College,University US$, millions 16,775 0.9 0.0 2.8 2.0 1.6 1.6

Elementary,Pre School US$, millions 15,391 17.1 17.5 7.4 7.5 1.6 0.3

Jr,Sr High School US$, millions 15,191 15.7 7.2 2.5 0.0 2.2 1.5

Special,Vocational US$, millions 1,022 30.0 0.1 3.0 0.1 2.0 1.5

Government US$, millions 13,629 11.3 8.5 4.5 2.0 1.8 1.2

Courthouse US$, millions 1,294 -13.9 25.7 4.1 3.6 0.3 1.3

Govenmental Offices US$, millions 9,503 14.6 0.5 4.0 1.1 1.9 1.2

Police,Fire US$, millions 1,578 14.9 14.3 9.0 0.9 1.8 1.2

Prisons US$, millions 1,254 7.2 51.2 3.1 6.8 2.3 1.1

Industrial US$, millions 13,453 32.6 -1.1 7.5 4.5 3.7 4.0

Manufacturing US$, millions 7,600 13.6 0.0 7.2 4.9 4.2 5.9

Industrial Labs,Labs,School Labs US$, millions 1,714 42.7 0.2 12.0 8.1 6.0 5.2

Warehouses US$, millions 4,139 63.5 -2.9 6.2 2.7 1.9 0.8

Medical US$, millions 21,263 0.1 23.2 12.5 9.2 6.1 4.5

Hospitals,Clinics US$, millions 14,781 3.2 24.1 13.7 10.9 6.9 4.7

Other medical US$, millions 2,548 -3.2 28.1 14.5 6.2 4.9 4.6

Nursing Homes,Assisted Living US$, millions 3,934 -9.4 16.0 5.8 3.3 3.3 3.3

Military US$, millions 4,947 72.8 -31.7 1.6 2.2 1.3 1.6

Retail US$, millions 28,723 1.9 20.7 7.7 4.5 3.9 3.5

Hotels,Motels US$, millions 6,858 4.3 35.9 11.2 2.2 3.0 3.6

Retail Miscellaneous US$, millions 3,256 22.4 20.4 3.8 4.8 3.2 3.5

Shopping US$, millions 18,610 -2.5 14.7 6.9 5.6 4.5 3.5

Residential US$, millions 189,416 5.3 19.9 10.4 6.3 5.2 4.6

Single-family US$, millions 146,205 8.1 21.1 11.2 6.7 5.5 5.0

Multi-family US$, millions 43,210 -4.1 15.3 7.4 4.4 3.9 3.0

Civil engineering US$, millions 101,720 8.5 -0.1 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3

Airport US$, millions 2,851 16.4 -10.3 6.1 2.8 3.1 4.6

Bridges US$, millions 10,665 4.0 2.3 1.6 1.2 1.6 2.1

Dams,Canals,Marine Work US$, millions 5,365 -21.6 -16.1 -4.1 2.8 0.7 1.8

Water,Sewage and Treatment US$, millions 23,708 15.9 9.6 1.6 3.4 2.3 2.6

Power Infrastructure US$, millions 463 -36.5 69.9 3.4 4.8 2.2 3.3

Roads US$, millions 41,198 10.0 -3.1 3.2 0.2 2.1 2.0

All Other Civil US$, millions 17,470 6.7 -4.4 -1.7 3.6 2.5 2.2

Detailed Sector forecasts for US(Annual percentage changes unless specified otherwise)


7

State Level unit 2013 level 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019California US$, millions 44,685 24.2 22.0 9.4 3.0 2.3 3.3Texas US$, millions 54,487 8.2 23.3 8.0 7.2 6.7 5.3New York US$, millions 30,809 -15.0 18.7 5.5 4.2 3.5 2.9Florida US$, millions 27,508 -0.9 24.6 9.3 4.8 2.4 3.4Illinois US$, millions 14,876 9.6 0.2 6.0 3.6 2.9 2.6Pennsylvania US$, millions 14,799 7.6 22.7 6.3 3.7 3.4 2.9Ohio US$, millions 13,614 -6.1 21.2 6.4 4.6 3.7 2.7Georgia US$, millions 13,923 13.5 21.9 8.0 6.1 4.3 3.3Michigan US$, millions 8,289 18.7 0.5 4.0 3.4 2.8 2.2North Carolina US$, millions 16,438 17.2 13.5 8.0 7.1 6.5 4.9New Jersey US$, millions 11,086 -14.3 11.8 5.6 2.9 2.7 2.6Virginia US$, millions 12,864 16.9 16.6 8.7 4.2 3.3 3.1Washington US$, millions 12,110 10.7 2.2 6.7 4.4 3.7 3.8Massachusetts US$, millions 9,913 -1.0 20.9 5.0 3.2 2.8 2.5Arizona US$, millions 9,138 0.1 27.2 12.8 5.3 3.2 4.5Indiana US$, millions 7,994 12.9 18.3 6.3 5.9 5.6 4.4Tennessee US$, millions 9,911 -3.6 18.0 6.5 6.3 4.9 3.7Missouri US$, millions 6,976 20.3 -0.4 5.1 4.6 3.7 2.8Maryland US$, millions 9,455 24.7 5.4 6.4 2.8 2.1 2.3Wisconsin US$, millions 5,975 8.1 20.9 4.7 3.6 3.3 2.5Minnesota US$, millions 9,001 -0.6 7.5 4.7 4.1 3.4 3.0Colorado US$, millions 8,449 16.5 0.3 6.1 5.6 5.1 4.2Alabama US$, millions 6,207 10.2 -2.7 6.1 5.0 4.8 3.6South Carolina US$, millions 8,075 14.4 0.6 7.4 6.8 5.8 4.4Louisiana US$, millions 8,508 -8.8 2.2 7.8 6.2 5.5 4.2Kentucky US$, millions 5,223 6.7 -6.3 6.9 5.8 5.2 4.0Oregon US$, millions 8,559 -26.9 10.6 7.3 5.4 4.4 4.4Oklahoma US$, millions 6,136 3.3 -1.1 5.2 5.6 5.4 4.0Connecticut US$, millions 6,661 -33.6 30.0 5.5 3.0 2.4 1.7Iowa US$, millions 5,238 26.7 -26.4 6.3 5.4 4.9 3.5Mississippi US$, millions 2,978 30.9 -2.2 6.5 6.6 6.3 4.6Arkansas US$, millions 4,814 -1.1 -20.2 8.2 6.1 5.0 3.7Utah US$, millions 5,094 19.5 3.5 10.0 4.9 3.2 3.1Kansas US$, millions 5,464 -13.8 -9.8 6.2 4.9 4.2 3.1Nevada US$, millions 3,543 52.2 5.3 10.0 2.1 0.1 2.0New Mexico US$, millions 2,207 19.3 10.6 7.1 5.1 4.0 3.0Nebraska US$, millions 3,129 19.5 -10.7 6.9 5.6 4.9 3.5West Virginia US$, millions 2,096 -21.3 19.1 7.1 5.0 4.3 2.9Idaho US$, millions 2,915 2.0 -2.5 6.8 4.4 3.4 3.5Hawaii US$, millions 2,929 -15.6 -16.0 6.5 4.0 2.6 2.4Maine US$, millions 1,497 14.3 22.2 4.0 2.6 2.3 1.9New Hampshire US$, millions 1,249 28.8 47.7 6.4 4.1 2.7 2.5Rhode Island US$, millions 1,024 18.5 19.0 3.5 3.4 2.4 1.7Montana US$, millions 1,470 0.5 4.9 7.7 6.0 4.7 3.4Delaware US$, millions 1,565 1.5 31.0 6.2 5.6 4.6 3.5South Dakota US$, millions 1,806 -7.8 -8.5 6.7 5.6 5.1 3.7Alaska US$, millions 1,899 15.5 -42.8 4.5 5.1 4.3 3.2North Dakota US$, millions 3,543 29.8 -56.6 -1.4 6.2 5.6 3.8District Of Columbia US$, millions 3,303 12.0 -29.5 3.4 2.9 1.9 1.3Vermont US$, millions 930 -7.2 31.0 6.5 5.4 4.0 2.6Wyoming US$, millions 1,647 15.4 -36.6 8.2 5.3 4.3 2.8

Total starts forecasts by state(Annual percentage changes unless specified otherwise)


8

Level unit 2013 level 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Non-residential building US$, millions 19,260 16.5 34.7 7.5 4.7 3.8 3.2

Commercial US$, millions 3,382 45.4 12.4 8.1 6.5 5.4 5.2

Community US$, millions 1,890 19.2 -1.7 3.7 2.5 2.8 2.4


Government US$, millions 1,336 33.6 23.6 4.6 2.1 1.9 1.3

Industrial US$, millions 2,768 -19.2 -7.9 8.7 4.0 3.1 2.6


Military US$, millions 788 -14.4 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.9 1.4

Retail US$, millions 2,245 28.7 50.3 9.6 2.5 3.3 3.6



Multi-family US$, millions 5,963 77.9 -9.2 12.1 -1.1 0.1 3.4

Civil engineering US$, millions 11,073 10.0 14.5 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.5

Non-residential building US$, millions 18,108 -1.2 32.9 4.9 4.2 3.4 2.8

Commercial US$, millions 3,683 -26.3 -4.5 0.1 5.6 7.4 6.5

Community US$, millions 1,022 6.6 94.6 4.3 4.2 3.6 3.0


Government US$, millions 986 -3.2 58.2 5.2 2.3 2.1 1.4

Industrial US$, millions 1,001 3.5 53.9 4.9 4.8 4.3 4.1


Military US$, millions 323 193.8 -47.3 2.3 2.9 1.6 1.9

Retail US$, millions 3,990 -25.2 37.0 4.1 1.0 2.4 2.8



Multi-family US$, millions 3,060 33.9 -18.3 6.7 12.0 10.1 5.5


Non-residential building US$, millions 14,817 -7.8 11.5 6.2 4.9 3.2 2.7

Commercial US$, millions 3,815 -38.5 33.3 9.5 7.4 5.6 4.9

Community US$, millions 598 55.9 20.9 3.9 2.1 2.5 2.2


Government US$, millions 1,270 -18.2 25.6 4.5 2.2 2.0 1.2

Industrial US$, millions 929 -49.8 105.4 6.8 4.1 3.4 3.6


Military US$, millions 270 -12.6 -19.8 1.9 2.2 1.2 1.6

Retail US$, millions 3,490 -40.6 -8.3 5.8 6.4 4.2 4.6

Residential US$, millions 10,954 -36.6 36.2 7.1 4.5 4.8 3.7




Non-residential building US$, millions 6,367 25.1 39.0 4.6 7.4 4.9 3.9

Commercial US$, millions 509 24.8 113.8 5.2 10.0 7.7 6.8

Community US$, millions 583 12.1 85.4 5.7 3.7 3.5 3.2


Government US$, millions 739 -22.0 72.5 3.7 1.7 1.5 1.0

Industrial US$, millions 359 -51.4 184.6 9.2 4.4 3.8 3.1

Medical US$, millions 1,193 54.0 -19.6 11.5 8.6 5.7 4.2

Military US$, millions 144 117.0 -1.6 2.4 1.2 0.8 1.4

Retail US$, millions 1,822 30.1 22.7 -1.0 12.5 6.8 4.9

Residential US$, millions 15,659 -7.5 18.0 14.7 4.0 0.9 3.4



Civil engineering US$, millions 5,483 -12.0 20.5 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.4

Florida

New York

Sector forecasts for large states(Annual percentage changes unless specified otherwise)

California

Texas


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10


11


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Level unit 2013 level 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Non-residential building C$, millions 18,628 -18.9 12.0 14.3 10.4 9.2 4.9

Commercial C$, millions 10,512 -26.5 3.2 14.4 9.8 8.1 6.8

Amusement C$, millions 2,707 -61.9 33.3 11.5 9.3 7.4 6.5

Govenmental Offices C$, millions 1,442 8.3 -6.5 7.6 4.9 5.4 3.7

Hotels,Motels C$, millions 1,033 -66.8 13.2 15.0 8.8 6.6 5.0

Offices C$, millions 2,312 -10.8 -4.9 17.6 11.2 8.7 7.7

Parking Garages C$, millions 68 -24.8 58.1 14.6 11.0 8.8 7.6

Retail Miscellaneous C$, millions 521 -19.0 2.7 16.3 11.3 8.8 7.5

Shopping C$, millions 1,874 -10.6 -1.1 17.5 12.0 9.8 8.2

Warehouses C$, millions 556 4.0 7.0 16.5 10.8 9.2 7.7

Industrial C$, millions 1,330 -2.3 13.6 8.9 7.4 6.4 5.7

Manufacturing C$, millions 1,330 -2.3 13.6 8.9 7.4 6.4 5.7

Institutional C$, millions 6,785 -10.2 22.9 15.2 11.5 10.8 2.8

Educational C$, millions 3,883 -29.0 32.9 16.0 11.1 10.1 1.9

Hospitals,Clinics C$, millions 1,133 43.0 9.5 15.6 13.3 12.2 4.3

Other medical C$, millions 671 -22.4 61.3 10.7 10.0 10.3 2.8

Police,Fire C$, millions 674 15.1 -9.0 16.2 11.5 11.1 3.0

Religious C$, millions 118 -22.7 35.7 14.6 10.8 10.3 2.5

Transportation Terminals C$, millions 306 6.9 16.3 14.8 11.3 11.7 3.6

Residential C$, millions 23,715 -5.7 6.6 5.9 4.8 4.6 4.5

Single-family C$, millions 14,198 0.5 6.8 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.5

Multi-family C$, millions 9,517 -14.9 6.1 7.4 4.7 4.5 4.4

Civil engineering C$, millions 46,976 -21.6 15.0 7.0 4.9 3.4 3.0

Bridges C$, millions 2,026 -21.8 39.9 8.0 4.8 3.1 2.3

Dams,Canals,Marine Work C$, millions 72 51.0 26.0 -15.7 8.0 2.9 3.0

Water,Sewage and Treatment C$, millions 3,330 -1.8 20.5 4.9 4.6 3.8 3.1Power Infrastructure C$, millions 11,994 -43.5 7.8 10.3 5.8 3.2 2.4Roads C$, millions 6,298 14.6 15.0 4.6 5.1 3.7 3.3All Other Civil C$, millions 23,256 -23.1 14.6 7.3 4.6 3.4 3.1

Detailed Sector forecasts for Canada(Annual percentage changes unless specified otherwise)


13

Province Level unit 2013 level 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Ontario C$, millions 21,262 -0.4 30.0 8.5 6.2 5.4 3.9Quebec C$, millions 10,673 14.2 9.2 9.2 6.2 5.0 3.6British Colombia C$, millions 11,035 5.0 3.8 8.4 6.1 5.1 3.8Alberta C$, millions 30,725 -45.0 35.0 7.6 5.9 4.7 4.0Atlantic region C$, millions 9,486 -59.7 -24.8 5.6 4.8 4.4 2.6Manitoba C$, millions 2,142 12.2 -3.8 7.3 6.1 5.5 3.9Saskatchewan C$, millions 3,995 56.2 -63.2 7.2 6.6 5.0 3.9

Total starts forecasts by province(Annual percentage changes unless specified otherwise)

Level unit 2013 level 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Non-residential building C$, millions 5,585 -19.8 56.7 14.9 10.2 9.2 4.9

Commercial C$, millions 3,410 -28.6 48.5 14.0 10.0 8.3 6.4

Institutional C$, millions 3,426 -29.5 72.8 18.6 11.1 10.7 2.7

Industrial C$, millions 167 201.6 35.4 8.6 7.2 6.4 5.4



Multi-family C$, millions 3,952 -22.9 36.9 7.5 4.6 4.4 4.3

Civil engineering C$, millions 7,263 25.5 23.8 6.6 4.9 3.4 2.9

Non-residential building C$, millions 4,019 -14.5 -13.5 13.5 10.3 8.9 4.2

Commercial C$, millions 2,161 -32.4 -23.7 12.0 7.9 7.2 5.9

Institutional C$, millions 1,910 8.9 10.0 14.6 12.4 10.2 2.6

Industrial C$, millions 614 -10.3 -59.8 12.7 7.2 5.3 5.3


Single-family C$, millions 2,079 -9.2 26.9 7.5 4.7 4.6 4.5

Multi-family C$, millions 1,433 -8.1 -32.5 7.9 3.9 4.1 4.2

Civil engineering C$, millions 3,143 76.7 27.1 8.2 5.2 3.5 2.9

Non-residential building C$, millions 2,632 18.9 -5.6 13.8 10.4 8.9 5.0

Commercial C$, millions 1,259 32.4 -16.7 14.5 10.1 8.4 7.0

Institutional C$, millions 1,505 15.0 -2.5 16.0 12.1 10.1 2.1

Industrial C$, millions 407 -76.6 357.1 7.9 7.0 6.4 6.1

Residential C$, millions 4,548 8.1 5.6 6.1 4.8 4.6 4.5


Multi-family C$, millions 2,516 5.7 4.2 7.3 4.8 4.5 4.5


Non-residential building C$, millions 3,258 -27.5 -4.5 15.4 11.5 10.0 6.2

Commercial C$, millions 2,129 -19.9 -11.8 17.2 11.3 9.3 7.7

Institutional C$, millions 1,695 -33.0 -1.7 11.0 11.5 11.1 2.6

Industrial C$, millions 22 -58.0 492.0 3.2 12.5 9.4 7.2

Residential C$, millions 4,133 0.4 -7.8 4.7 5.9 5.0 4.8

Single-family C$, millions 3,539 6.4 -9.3 4.3 5.9 5.0 4.7

Multi-family C$, millions 595 -35.1 6.6 8.3 6.0 5.5 5.2


Alberta

Ontario

Quebec

British Columbia

Sector forecasts for large provinces(Annual percentage changes unless specified otherwise)


14


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2014 Construction Market Data Group LLC Sources Actual Starts: CMD (U.S. single-family residential: U.S. Census Bureau, Canadian single-family residential: CMHC). Forecast: Oxford Economics. The information on this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. It cannot be guaranteed, however, and CMD makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to its accuracy or completeness, nor assumes any responsibility or liability therefore.

cmd forecast report: q4 2014constructconnect.s3.amazonaws.com/forecast quarterly reports/c… ·...

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