coca-cola amatil limited asx code: ccl price: $11.49 12 mth … · coca-cola amatil limited (ccl)...

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Business Summary Coca-Cola Amatil Limited (CCL) manufactures and distributes carbonated soft drinks, water, sports and energy drinks, fruit juice, flavoured milk, coffee and packaged ready-to-eat fruit and vegetable products. CCL is the principal Coca-Cola licensee in Australia and independently manufactures its own soft drinks and mineral waters. CCL sells and distributes the premium spirits portfolio of Beam Global Spirits & Wines. CCL also operates in Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Samoa. Brands: CCL's product portfolio consists of non-alcoholic drink brands such as Coca-Cola, diet Coke, Coke Zero, Fanta, Sprite, Powerade, Glaceau and Pump, as well as other trademark beverages of The Coca-Cola Company. CCL bottles and distributes these brands in its territories under licence from The Coca-Cola Company. Beverage brands owned, manufactured and distributed by CCL include Mount Franklin, Deep Spring and Kirks. The premium spirits portfolio Beam Global Spirits & Wines consists of Jim Beam, Canadian Club, Makers Mark and The Famous Grouse. Latest Research Alert: Container Deposit Scheme Likely in Vic in 2023 Container scheme goes national The Victorian Government has announced a container deposit scheme (CDS) will be launched in Victoria in 2023. Further details have not been released. If Victoria follows other states in structure and the refund amount, we estimate 0.9% EPS downside for FY23e. For more information see research 26 Feb 2020. GICS - Food/Beverage/Tobacco Coca-Cola Amatil Limited ASX Code: CCL Price: $11.45 12 Mth Target Price: $10.60 Rating: Sell Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investment objectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement with Bell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell Potter Securities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate. Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document. This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is general investment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person. Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended. Snapshot Date Market Cap. Shares on issue 12 Month High 12 Month Low 7 March 2020 $8,290m 724.0m $13.18 $8.26 Rating Rating 12 Mth Target Price Capital Gain Gross Yield Implied Total Return Sell $10.60 -9.0% 5.0% -4.0% Investment Fundamentals FYE 31 Dec 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F Profit $m 394.0 420.0 436.0 443.0 Profit (norm)* $m 394.0 420.0 436.0 443.0 EPS* ¢ 54.0 58.0 60.0 61.0 EPS Growth % 0.0 7.4 3.5 1.7 P/E* x 21.6 20.1 19.4 19.1 P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DPS ¢ 51.0 51.0 47.0 49.0 Yield % 4.4 4.4 4.0 4.2 Franking % 50.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 * Adjusted for goodwill and unusual items Source: Based on Citi estimates Share Price Chart Total Return on $10,000 Investment

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Page 1: Coca-Cola Amatil Limited ASX Code: CCL Price: $11.49 12 Mth … · Coca-Cola Amatil Limited (CCL) manufactures and distributes carbonated soft drinks, water, sports and energy drinks,

Business SummaryCoca-Cola Amatil Limited (CCL) manufactures and distributes carbonatedsoft drinks, water, sports and energy drinks, fruit juice, flavoured milk, coffeeand packaged ready-to-eat fruit and vegetable products. CCL is the principalCoca-Cola licensee in Australia and independently manufactures its own softdrinks and mineral waters. CCL sells and distributes the premium spiritsportfolio of Beam Global Spirits & Wines. CCL also operates in Australia,New Zealand, Fiji, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Samoa.

Brands: CCL's product portfolio consists of non-alcoholic drink brands suchas Coca-Cola, diet Coke, Coke Zero, Fanta, Sprite, Powerade, Glaceau andPump, as well as other trademark beverages of The Coca-Cola Company.CCL bottles and distributes these brands in its territories under licence fromThe Coca-Cola Company. Beverage brands owned, manufactured anddistributed by CCL include Mount Franklin, Deep Spring and Kirks. Thepremium spirits portfolio Beam Global Spirits & Wines consists of Jim Beam,Canadian Club, Makers Mark and The Famous Grouse.

Latest ResearchAlert: Container Deposit Scheme Likely in Vic in 2023

Container scheme goes national – The Victorian Government hasannounced a

container deposit scheme (CDS) will be launched in Victoria in 2023.Further details have not been released. If Victoria follows other states instructure and the refund amount, we estimate 0.9% EPS downside forFY23e.

For more information see research 26 Feb 2020.

GICS - Food/Beverage/Tobacco

Coca-Cola Amatil Limited

ASX Code: CCL Price: $11.45 12 Mth Target Price: $10.60 Rating: Sell

Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investmentobjectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement withBell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell PotterSecurities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate.Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document.This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is generalinvestment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person.Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in thiscommission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Snapshot

DateMarket Cap.Shares on issue12 Month High12 Month Low

7 March 2020$8,290m724.0m$13.18$8.26

RatingRating12 Mth Target Price

Capital GainGross Yield

Implied Total Return

Sell$10.60-9.0%5.0%-4.0%

Investment FundamentalsFYE 31 Dec 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

Profit $m 394.0 420.0 436.0 443.0Profit (norm)* $m 394.0 420.0 436.0 443.0

EPS* ¢ 54.0 58.0 60.0 61.0EPS Growth % 0.0 7.4 3.5 1.7P/E* x 21.6 20.1 19.4 19.1P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DPS ¢ 51.0 51.0 47.0 49.0Yield % 4.4 4.4 4.0 4.2Franking % 50.0 65.0 65.0 65.0* Adjusted for goodwill and unusual itemsSource: Based on Citi estimates

Share Price Chart

Total Return on $10,000 Investment

Page 2: Coca-Cola Amatil Limited ASX Code: CCL Price: $11.49 12 Mth … · Coca-Cola Amatil Limited (CCL) manufactures and distributes carbonated soft drinks, water, sports and energy drinks,

Profit & Loss ($M)2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Sales Revenue 5,113 5,168 4,945 4,764 5,084Total Revenue ex. Int. 5,152 5,211 4,989 4,802 5,112EBITDA 931 735 912 930 987Depreciation & Amort. -270 -269 -262 -264 -347Goodwill Amortisation -- -- -- -- --EBIT 661 466 650 665 640Net Interest -86 -73 -69 -55 -66Profit Before Tax 574 393 582 610 574Income Tax -171 -136 -149 -144 -149Outside Equity Int. -10 -11 -16 -13 -16Profit after Tax 393 246 417 330 416Significant Items after Tax -- -- 28 -51 -41Reported Profit after Tax 393 246 445 279 374Preferred Dividends -- -- -- -- --

Cash Flow ($M)2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Receipts from Customers 5,965 6,098 5,780 5,945 6,200Funds from Operations 867 976 816 869 825Net Operating Cashflow 627 775 589 622 668Capex -266 -303 -312 -340 -235Acquisitions & Investments -85 -- -23 -166 -5Sale of Invest. & Subsid. -- 9 -- -- 73Net Investing Cashflow -321 -190 -183 -414 -133Proceeds from Issues 647 -- -- -- --Dividends Paid -321 -340 -346 -340 -370Net Financing Cashflow 122 -438 -684 -343 -647Net Increase Cash 428 146 -278 -134 -113Cash at Beginning 803 1,237 1,377 1,036 935Exchange Rate Adjust. 7 -7 -63 33 32Cash at End 1,237 1,377 1,036 935 854

Ratios and Substantial Shareholders2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Profitability RatiosEBITDA Margin % 18.21 14.23 18.45 19.51 19.42EBIT Margin % 12.92 9.02 13.15 13.96 12.59Net Profit Margin % 7.69 4.76 8.44 9.50 8.06Return on Equity % 18.86 11.92 26.93 29.30 26.22Return on Assets % 7.53 5.34 8.56 8.82 7.83

Debt/Safety RatiosNet Debt/Equity % 53.87 41.61 69.80 77.09 94.89Interest Cover x 7.66 6.38 9.45 12.09 9.74

Top 5 Substantial ShareholdersCoca-Cola Holdings (Overseas) Ltd 30.8%BlackRock Group 5.0%

Balance Sheet ($M)2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Cash & Equivalent 1,238 1,378 1,038 937 856Receivables 1,031 977 998 961 1,047Inventories 734 676 670 626 646Other Current Assets 126 74 93 235 224Current Assets 3,128 3,105 2,800 2,815 2,774Prop. Plant & Equipment 2,020 1,949 1,865 1,855 2,289Intangibles 1,266 1,207 1,208 1,252 1,263Other Non-Current Assets 137 88 104 251 241Non-Current Assets 3,539 3,359 3,257 3,357 3,805Total Assets 6,667 6,464 6,057 6,172 6,579Interest Bearing Debt 2,536 2,381 2,350 2,402 2,708Other Liabilities 1,722 1,673 1,826 1,870 1,918Total Liabilities 4,258 4,054 4,177 4,272 4,627Net Assets 2,410 2,410 1,880 1,900 1,952Share Capital 2,272 2,256 1,907 1,908 1,907Reserves 306 394 262 323 374Retained Earnings -492 -585 -621 -686 -719Outside Equity Int. 324 346 331 355 390Total Shareholders Equity 2,410 2,410 1,880 1,900 1,952

Current Analyst Recommendations *

* Source: Morningstar. This chart shows the spread of recommendations from thosebroker analyst's in Australia with research coverage of this stock.

Principals & DirectorsPrincipals

Company Secretary Ms Betty IvanoffMs Jane Margaret Bowd

Directors

Ms Ilana Rachel Atlas(Non-Executive Director,Non-ExecutiveChairman)Ms Alison Mary Watkins(Executive Director,Managing Director)Mr Massimo (John) Borghetti(Non-Executive Director)Ms Penelope (Penny) Ann Winn(Non-Executive Director)Mr Mark Graham Johnson(Non-Executive Director)Mr Krishnakumar Thirumalai(Non-Executive Director)Mr Paul Dominic O'Sullivan(Non-Executive Director)Mr Jorge Garduno(Non-Executive Director)

To access further Research or for information regarding our recommendations and ratings please seewww.bellpotter.com.au

© 2020 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Neither Morningstar, its affiliates, nor the content providers guarantee the data or content contained herein to be accurate, complete or timely nor will they have any liabilityfor its use or distribution. Any Morningstar ratings/recommendations contained in this report are based on the full research report available from Morningstar or your adviser. Any general advice or ‘class service’ havebeen prepared by Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892) and/or Morningstar Research Ltd, subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc, without reference to your objectives, financial situation orneeds. Refer to our Financial Services Guide (FSG) for more information at www.morningstar.com.au/s/fsg.pdf. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant ProductDisclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Our publications, ratings and products should be viewed as an additional investment resource, not as your sole source of information. Past performancedoes not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Some material is copyright and published under licence fromASX Operations Pty Ltd ACN 004 523 782.

Coca-Cola Amatil Limited

Bell Potter Securities Research

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