committed to connecting the world itida itu.pdf · 2009. 8. 4. · world arab states americas...

Cairo, 23 March 2009

Committed to Connecting the World

1

The Egyptian Information Society The Egyptian Information Society

in the Eyes of International Expertsin the Eyes of International Experts

Cairo, 23 March 2009Cairo, 23 March 2009

Measuring the Information Society

Susan Teltscher, PhD

Head, Market Information and Statistics Division

Telecommunication Development Bureau



2

Agenda

� ICT policy and ICT measurement

� Global ICT trends

� Key ICT indicators for Egypt and the Arab region

� The financial crisis and ICT

� Conclusions and way forward



3

ICT measurement is essential to ICT policy makers and businesses

� For designing, evaluating and reformulating policies

� For strategic planning

� For monitoring and assessing the digital divide

� For analysing the impact of ICT on growth and development

� For international and regional benchmarking



4

Global ICT developments: the emergence of mobile

Note: *Estimates.Source: ITU



5

Shift from fixed to mobile telephony

Source: ITU



6

The broadband divide

Mobile broadband



7

Key ICT indicators for Egypt and the Arab region

� Mobile cellular

� Fixed telephone

� Internet (users, broadband)

� International Internet bandwidth

� Benchmarking the information society (ICT Development Index, ICT Price Basket)



8

Mobile cellular penetration by region

412

198

30

4737

50 53

72

105

23

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Africa Asia &Pacif ic

World ArabStates

Americas Europe &CIS

countries

Per

100

inha

bita

nts 2002

2007

Mobile cellular telephone subscriptions

Source: ITU



9

Mobile cellular penetration

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Per

100

inha

bita

nts

Egypt Arab States Africa Developing

Source: ITU

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Rel

ativ

e va

lue

(200

2 =

100)

p


Egypt catching up ….

… and growing strongly



10

Fixed telephone lines above average

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Per

100

inha

bita

nts


Source: ITU



11

Internet users by geographic region

1 36

11

2428

13 15

21

41 43

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Africa ArabStates

Asia &Pacif ic

World Europe &CIS

countries

Americas

Per

100

inha

bita

nts

2002

2007

Estimated Internet users

Source: ITU



12

Internet users – Egypt high growth

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Per

100

inha

bita

nts


Source: ITU

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Rel

ativ

e va

lue

(200

2 =

100)

p




13

International Internet bandwidth per Internet user still low

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

bps

/ use

r


Source: ITU

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Rel

ativ

e va

lue

(200

2 =

100)

p


Egypt needs to catch up ….

… with its growing number of Internet users



14

Fixed broadband subscribers by geographic region

Fixed broadband

0 0 1 13

1

35

11

20.1

13

0

5

10

15

20

Africa ArabStates

Asia &Pacif ic

World Americas Europe &CIS

countries

Per

100

inha

bita

nts 2002

2007



15

Fixed Internet Broadband subscribers

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Per

100

inha

bita

nts


Source: ITU

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Rel

ativ

e va

lue

(200

2 =

100)

p


Egypt still low penetration ….

…but above-average growth rates



16

Mobile broadband – still to take off

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Per

100

inha

bita

nts


Source: ITU



17

� ICT Development Index

� ICT

Price

Basket

www.itu.int/ict

Benchmarking the information society



18

ICT Development Index

� 11 indicators (ICT access, use, skills)

� Two years: 2002 and 2007

� 154 economies



19

IDI - highest relative growth in Eastern Europe, Northern Africa

Source: ITU



20

Developing countries lower ICT levels but strong growth

Source: ITU



21

IDI - Arab States

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

ComorosMauritania

YemenSudan

Average AfricaMorocco

AlgeriaEgypt

Average developingSyria

Tunisia

Average Arab StatesOman

JordanLebanon

KuwaitSaudi Arabia

BahrainUnited Arab Emirates

IDI 2007

IDI 2002

Source: ITU



22

Egypt’s IDI levels increasing

0

1

1

2

2

3

Uni

ted

Arab

Em

irat

es

Sau

di A

rabi

aBah

rainSyr

iaMor

occo

Alger

ia

Leba

non

Ave

rage

Ara

b St

atesOm

anTu

nisia

Kuw

ait

Egyp

t

Ave

rage

dev

elop

ing

Jord

anSud

anYe

men

Ave

rage

Africa

Mau

rita

nia

Com

oros

Absolute IDI gain

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

%

IDI grow th 2002-2007 % increase

Source: ITU



23

How much do ICT services cost?

The ICT Price Basket 2008

� Fixed telephone

� Mobile cellular

� Fixed broadband Internet

� US$, PPP$, % of monthly GNI p.c.

� 150 countries



24

Developing countries are paying more

Source: ITU

In most developed countries ICT costs account for 0-3% of average monthly incomes

In most developing countries ICT costs account for 0-25% of average monthly incomes



25

ICT Price Basket 2008 – Egypt relatively affordable

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Comoros

Mauritania

Average Africa

Yemen

Average developing

Sudan

Syria

Morocco

Average Arab States

Jordan

Egypt

Lebanon

Algeria

Tunisia

Oman

Saudi Arabia

Kuwait

Bahrain

United Arab Emirates

ICT Price Basket valueSource: ITU



26

What will be the impact of the financial crisis on ICT developments in Egypt?

www.itu.int/crisis2009/



27

Telecom industry outlook isbleak in high-income countries

� Telcos paying 3-4% more for financing

� Uncertain consumer demand not yet tested in recession – consumers are wary

� Need proven business model & cashflows & established credentials to access VC

� Return of State funding? Governmentintervening with investment in broadband in Australia, Italy, Greece, US and EU.



28

Outlook in emerging

markets

� Demand for mobile largely unaffected, despite softening in some markets

� Mobile phone services still viewed as a necessity

� Growth in mobile broadband and Internet looks set to continue but some slowdown

� BUT… what about the economic backdrop & consumer demand, if emerging markets slide into recession?



29

Telco Strategy

� Capex, not opex – focus on controlling costs

� Consider network-sharing to cut costs

� Continue to invest in QoS for the future

� Focus on flat-rate & prepaid packages likely to grow, as popular with consumers (impact on profit margins?)

� Mobile operators more flexible re capex than fixed



30

Implications for MENAImplications for MENA

� MENA benefits from own sources of finance, including SWFs and homegrown investors

� Prospects for South-South investment

� Strong growth potential in mobile & Internet

� Investment in ICTs could offer a way out of the crisis, but needs to be prioritized.

� Delays in licenses: Bahrain, Jordan & Lebanon

� Egypt: still a strong potential role as a regional hub - Outsourcing Destination of the Year 2008



31

Impact on EgyptImpact on Egypt’’s s

telecomtelecom sectorsector

� Strong growth in mobile projected to continue from 57% in 2008 to 74% penetration in 2009, despite crisis

� But slowdown in net additions in Q408 (Informa)

� Most analysts foresee limited impact on mobile usage and revenues

� Early signs of a slowdown in fixed-line (BMI)

� Second fixed-line license postponed

� Egyptian mobile in transition - penetration in cities high – how to grow rural market?



32

Projected growth Projected growth -- mobilemobile

Source: Business Monitor International (BMI).



33

ProjectedProjected growth growth -- InternetInternet

Source: Business Monitor International (BMI).



34

Conclusions and way forward

� Over the past few years steep growth in ICT developments in Egypt (fixed, mobile, broadband)

� International Internet bandwidth to be increased to keep up with rising demand

� Mobile broadband to be fully launched� Relatively low costs for ICT services are likely to support continued growth trend

� To be addressed: rural-urban divide, ICT use by households and individuals

From information economy To information society



35

Thank you

indicators[at]itu.int

www.itu.int/ict



36

Supplementary charts



37

Mobile cellular penetration in Arab countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Uni

ted

Arab

Em

irat

esQat

arBah

rain

Sau

di A

rabi

aKuw

ait

Om

anAlger

iaJo

rdan

Tuni

sia

Ave

rage

Ara

b St

atesLiby

aMor

occo

Ave

rage

dev

elop

ing

Mau

rita

nia

Egyp

t

Ave

rage

AfricaSyr

iaLe

bano

nSud

anYe

men

Com

oros

Per 100 inhabitants

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

%

Mobile cellular subscriptions 2007 CAGR 2002-2007

Source: ITU



38

Fixed telephone lines above average

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Uni

ted

Arab

Em

irat

esQat

arBah

rain

Kuw

ait

Leba

non

Syr

ia

Sau

di A

rabi

aLiby

aEg

ypt

Ave

rage

Ara

b St

ates

Ave

rage

dev

elop

ing

Tuni

sia

Om

anJo

rdan

Alger

iaMor

occo

Yem

en

Ave

rage

Africa

Com

oros

Mau

rita

nia

Sud

anPer 100 inhabitants

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

%

Main telephone lines 2007 CAGR 2002-2007

Source: ITU



39

Internet users – catching up

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Uni

ted

Arab

Em

irat

esQat

arBah

rain

Kuw

ait

Leba

non

Sau

di A

rabi

aMor

occo

Ave

rage

Ara

b St

ates

Jord

anSyr

iaTu

nisia

Ave

rage

dev

elop

ing

Egyp

tOm

anAlger

iaSud

an

Ave

rage

AfricaLiby

a

Com

oros

Mau

rita

nia

Yem

enPer 100 inhabitants

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

%

Internet users 2007 CAGR 2002-2007

Source: ITU



40

Fixed broadband still low …

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Bah

rain

Uni

ted

Arab

Em

irat

esQat

arLe

bano

n

Ave

rage

dev

elop

ing

Kuw

ait

Sau

di A

rabi

a

Ave

rage

Ara

b St

ates

Mor

occo

Jord

anTu

nisia

Alger

iaOm

anEg

ypt

Ave

rage

Africa

Mau

rita

nia

Liby

aSud

anSyr

ia

Com

oros

Yem

en

Per 100 inhabitants

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

%

Fixed broadband subscribers 2007 CAGR 2002-2007

Source: ITU



41

Fixed telephone sub-basket

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Uni

ted

Arab

Em

irat

esBah

rain

Kuw

ait

Sau

di A

rabi

aSyr

iaTu

nisia

Yem

enAlger

iaLe

bano

nEg

ypt

Jord

anOm

an

Ave

rage

Ara

b St

atesSud

an

Ave

rage

dev

elop

ing

Mor

occo

Mau

rita

nia

Ave

rage

Africa

Com

oros

Mo

net

ary

un

its

0

5

10

15

20

25

% G

NI p

er c

apit

a

US$ PPP $ % monthly GNI per capita

Source: ITU



42

Mobile cellular sub-basket

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Uni

ted

Arab

Em

irat

esKuw

ait

Bah

rain

Om

an

Sau

di A

rabi

aJo

rdan

Tuni

sia

Alger

iaEg

ypt

Leba

non

Ave

rage

Ara

b St

atesSud

anSyr

iaYe

men

Ave

rage

dev

elop

ing

Mor

occo

Mau

rita

nia

Ave

rage

Africa

Com

oros

Mo

net

ary

un

its

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

% G

NI p

er c

apit

a


Source: ITU



43

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Uni

ted

Arab

Em

irat

esBah

rain

Kuw

ait

Sau

di A

rabi

aOm

anTu

nisia

Leba

non

Alger

iaEg

ypt

Mor

occo

Jord

anSyr

iaSud

an

Ave

rage

Ara

b St

ates

Mau

rita

nia

Ave

rage

dev

elop

ing

Yem

en

Ave

rage

Africa

Com

oros

Mo

net

ary

un

its

0

20

40

60

80

100

% G

NI p

er c

apit

a


Fixed broadband sub-basket

300%

311%

728%

794%

Source: ITU

committed to connecting the world itida itu.pdf · 2009. 8. 4. · world arab states americas...

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