Community tsunami inundation maps for selected ICG/CARIBE EWS member statesC. Sánchez-Linares1 (csl@uma.es), Jorge Macías1, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga2, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe2, Mauricio González2 & Bernardo Aliaga31 Edanya Team, University of Málaga. Spain. 2 Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental "IH Cantabria". Spain. 3 Intergovernmentl Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO. Paris. France.

The Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for theCaribbean and Adjacent Regions, IOC/UNESCO, as part of its Tsunami Programme is currently implementingmajor initiatives aimed at reducing the vulnerability of its Member States in the Caribbean and adjacent regionsto tsunamis and other coastal hazards. This project focuses on supporting the CARIBE EWS, coordinated byICG/CARIBE, to develop accurate products towards the reduction of the tsunami vulnerability and the advance ofthe global tsunami preparedness in the area.• Strengthen the capacities of early warning and response for tsunamis in the Caribbean• Develop of community-level tsunami inundation maps for select coastal communities• Support communities preparation for and response to tsunamis

Tsunami-HySEA model implements in the same code the three phases of an earthquake generated tsunami:generation (Okada deformation model), propagation and coastal inundation (non-linear shallow-water system).

Introduction

• In the generation stage, Okada’s fault deformation model (Okada,1985) is used to predict the initial bottom deformation that is trans-mitted to the sea surface.• Assumes that an earthqueake can be regarded as the rupture of asingle fault plane.• The fault is described by a series of parameters, comprising dip angle,strike angle, rake angle, fault width, fault length, and fault depth.• Tsunami-HySEA can combine several fault planes to model the com-plete seafloor deformation and each fault could be applied at differenttime steps to simulate the full rupture time.

Okada deformation model

• Uses the well known 2D nonlinear one-layer shallow water system.ht + (qx)x + (qy)y = 0

(qx)t + (q2xh + g2h2)

x+ (qxqyh )

y= ghHx + Sx

(qy)t + (qxqyh )x

(q2y

h + g2h2)y

= ghHy + Sy

Reference level

H

h1

η1

• h(x, t) denotes the thickness of thewater layer atpointx ∈ D ⊂ R2 at time t, being D the horizon-tal projection of the 3D domain where the tsunamitakes place.• H(x) is the depth of the bottom at point(x)measuredfrom a fixed level of reference.• η(x, t) = h(x, t)− H(x) corresponds to the free sur-face of the fluid.• q(x, t) = (qx(x, t), qy(x, t)) is the mass-flow of thewater layer at point x at time t.

• Sx and Sy parametrizes the friction effects Sx(U) = −gh n2h4/3uxu

Sy(U) = −gh n2h4/3uyu

,

where n > 0 is the Manning coefficient.

Shallow Water System Equations

• Solves the two-dimensional shallow-watersystem using a high-order (second and third order) path-conservative finite volume method.• The numerical scheme is conservative for both mass and momentum in flat bathymetries, and, in general,is mass preserving for arbitrary bathymetries.• Implementation of Tsunami-HySEA has been performed on GPU clusters and it handles nested grids.• These facts allows to speedup the computations, being able to perform complex simulations, in huge do-mains, much faster than real time

Numerical Scheme

Tsunami-HySEA numerical model

Saint John s(Antigua & Barbuda)

Speightstown(Barbados)

Puerto Plata(Dom. Rep)

Union Island(SVG)

Carenage(Trinidad & Tobago)

Bathymetry

SCB Data provided byDepartment ofEnvironment.Digitization of nauticalchartsLidar data. Resolution 1m,provided by the CoastalZone Management Unit.Digitization of Nauticalcharts

Provided by UNESCO froma previous project in thearea. Bathymetric contours Provided by NOAAresolution 30m Digitization ofNautical ChartsDEM

Satellite data provided byDepartment of EnvironmentResolution: 1mLidar data. Resolution 1m,provided by the CoastalZone Management Unit

Provided by UNESCO froma previous project in thearea. Resolution 30 mProvided by NOAAResolution 5m; Someuncertainties found Provided by ODPM.Resolution 30m

Collected data

COMMUNITIES Level NESTED GRIDS # OF CELLS RESOLUTION(meters)

DOM. REP 0 Caribbean Sea 4231x2078 18201 Approximation 1 324x126 9602 Approximarion 2 432x316 2403 Puerto Plata 1464x1088 30ANTIGUA & BARBUDA 0 Caribbean Sea 1927x986 20481 Antigua 208x176 1282 Saint John’s 944x672 8BARBADOS 0 Caribbean Sea 4561x2237 9001 Barbados 480x472 1202 West Coast 512x896 153 Speightstown 1704x2920 2TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 0 Caribbean Sea 4561x2237 9601 North Trinidad 468x200 2402 West Trinidad 628x336 603 Carenage 572x428 15SVG 0 Caribbean Sea 1591x770 26001 Saint Vincent 468x200 3302 Union Island 628x336 403 Local Detail 572x428 5

EVENT Simulation time # of GPUs∗ RuntimeCARIBE_LAS 8 hours 1 2 minCARIBE_LAN 8 hours 1 2 minCARIBE_NORTHERNHAITI 8 hours 1 2 minDO_NORTHERNHAITI_4L 2 hours 1 9 minAG_LAN_3L 3 hours 1 4 minBB_LAS_4L 2 hours 4 48 minSVG_LAS_4L 2 hours 1 9 minTT_LAS_4L 2 hours 1 5 min∗ Tesla V100 graphic cards (2018 Volta architecture, released 7 Dec 2017)

Nested meshes

Topobathymetric data

• A specific seismotectonic study was carried out, based on the tsunami historical events and the availablecatalogue of tsunami scenarios.• Numerous scenarios were simulated.

•Worst-case scenarios were selected to proceed witha deterministic analyses of the tsunami hazard.Communities SourceSt. John’s (capital) LANSpeightstown LASPuerto Plata NORTHERN HAITIUnion Island LASCarenage LAS

Initial deformation of the selected sources. They are all depicted in the same figure although they were consideredseparately for the analysis and definition of tsunamigenic sourcesEVENT LONGITUDE LATITUDE DEPTH LENGTH WIDTH STRIKE DIP RAKE SLIPLAS -59.0817 12.70847 15.25 370.933 211.966 181.5 8 90 5.96LAN -60.4487 16.82799 15.25 406.692 141.887 143.943 12 90 4.28-74.0091 20.5871 20 109 59 111 21 90 10-72.60172 20.3025 20 193 59 97 21 90 10NORTHERN HAITI -70.2080 19.8761 20 317 59 103 21 90 10

Tsunamigenic sources characterization

Maximum height in selected events and locations using coarsest level in Caribbean and high resolution levelin local communities

Propagation maps

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Puerto PlataMAPA DE INUNDACIÓN POR TSUNAMIMar Caribe

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MapaMapa de inundaciónpor tsunami

tProyección: WGS 1984 UTM Zona 19NDatum: WGS 1984

0 500 1000 1500 2000 m.

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SIMBOLOGÍA

Fortalecimiento de las capacidades de alertatemprana y respuesta ante tsunamis y otrasamenazas costeras en el Caribe

Proyecto Financiado porElaborado por

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Fort Bay

The Cove

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PillarRock Bay

DeepwaterHarbour

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Yepton Beach

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Project Map TitleTsunami Inundation Map

INUNDATION DEPTH (METERS)< 11 - 22 - 33 - 44 - 4.5

t1:5,000Scale0 170 340 510 680m.

Projection: Antigua 1943 Transverse MercatorDatum: Antigua 1943

TSUNAMI INUNDATION MAPAntigua & BarbudaSaint John's

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LEGEND

Developed by

National Partners

Funded byStrengthening Capacities of Early Warning andResponse for Tsunamis and Other Coastal Hazardsin the Caribbean

DisclaimerMap based on data provided by national agencies. Flooded area calculated with HySea numerical model. Tsunamigenic seismic sources provided by UNESCO-IOC and NOAA(CATSAM), mainly the source from Exercise CaribeWave17, which has been reviewed as: Mw:8.59; Lon/Lat:-60.4487/16.8280; Depth:15.25 km. Map developed in February 2020.

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St. Peter'sRectory

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tProjection: Barbados 1938 National GridDatum: Barbados 1938

0 150 300 450 600m.

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Map TitleTsunami Inundation Map

Speightstown

ProjectStrengthening Capacities of Early Warning and Responsefor Tsunamis and Other Coastal Hazards in the Caribbean

Developed by Funded by National Partners

DisclaimerMap based on data provided by national agencies. Flooded area calculated with HySea numerical model. Tsunamigenic seismic sources provided by UNESCO-IOC and NOAA(CATSAM), mainly the source from Exercise CaribeWave17, which has been reviewed as: Mw:8.78; Lon/Lat:-59.0817/112.7084; Depth:15.25 km.

Inundation maps presented during the workshops at each community

Inundation maps

Results

References• Macías, J., Mercado, A., González-Vida, J.M., Ortega, S., and Castro, M.J. (2016). Comparison and numerical performance of Tsunami-HySEA and MOST models for LANTEX2013 scenario. Impact assessment on Puerto Rico coasts. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 173(12), 3973–3997• Macías, J., Castro, M.J., Ortega, S., Escalante, C. and González-Vida, J.M. (2016). NTHMP Benchmarking of Tsunami-HySEA model for propagation and inundation. The 2011 NTHMP ModelBenchmarking Workshop. [DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35077.76001]• Macías, J. (2014). Tsunami Numerical Simulations: HySEA model. A GPU approach to tsunami modeling and case studies. Experts Meeting Workshop on Tsunami Modeling and Mitigation. Cartagenade Indias (Colombia), 1-3 December, 2014.

References• Macías, J., Mercado, A., González-Vida, J.M., Ortega, S., and Castro, M.J. (2016). Comparison and numerical performance of Tsunami-HySEA and MOST models for LANTEX2013 scenario. Impact assessment on Puerto Rico coasts. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 173(12), 3973–3997• Macías, J., Castro, M.J., Ortega, S., Escalante, C. and González-Vida, J.M. (2016). NTHMP Benchmarking of Tsunami-HySEA model for propagation and inundation. The 2011 NTHMP ModelBenchmarking Workshop. [DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35077.76001]• Macías, J. (2014). Tsunami Numerical Simulations: HySEA model. A GPU approach to tsunami modeling and case studies. Experts Meeting Workshop on Tsunami Modeling and Mitigation. Cartagenade Indias (Colombia), 1-3 December, 2014.