COMPENSATED REDUCTION OF DEFORESTATIONCOMPENSATED REDUCTION OF DEFORESTATION

IPAM - AMAZON INSTITUTE IPAM - AMAZON INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL

RESEARCH RESEARCH

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The future of the large remaining tropical forests of the earth under BAU.

“Inaccessible” forests become accessible as the frontier expands and infrastructure is developed.

8,000,000 ha. – 16,000,000 ha 8,000,000 ha. – 16,000,000 ha deforested yearly in 1980s & 1990sdeforested yearly in 1980s & 1990s

0.8 billion t/C – 2.6 billion t/C ~ 20% of 0.8 billion t/C – 2.6 billion t/C ~ 20% of annual global Greenhouse gas emissionsannual global Greenhouse gas emissions

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Emissions of top 30 emitters-MtC in 2000LULUCF Emissions

Fossil fuel emissions

Satellite Map of Forest Cover (500 m resolution)

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100%

Tree cover25 km

(Hansen et al. 2004)

Combining Moderate and High Resolution Satellite Data forMonitoring of Clear-cutting and Other Forest Losses

50 km

Moderate High

Asner et al. 2005Science

2050 Business as Usual Scenario:Deforested 2,698,735 km2 (16 PgC release by 2050)Forest 3,320,409 km2

Non-forest 1,497,685 km2

500 km Soares-Filho et al. 2006

2050 Governance Scenario:Deforested 1,655,734 km2 (Reduction: 60%)Forest 4,363,410 km2

Non-forest 1,497,685 km2

500 km

ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Global Emissions at Business as Usual Scenario (1990-2050)

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt

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/yr

Emissions from Tropical Deforestation

Non Annex I BAU

Annex I BAU

2 degrees: 1.5% decline/yr

2.5 degrees: 1.5% decline/yr

ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Compensated Reduction of DeforestationCompensated Reduction of Deforestation Concept for voluntary reduction of national tropical

deforestation emissions that brings major developing countries into Kyoto

1. Target derived from average annual historical deforestation (using satellite imagery) over an agreed period.

2. Tropical countries that elect to reduce their national emissions from deforestation below target during a commitment period, and

demonstrate success, authorized to issue tradable carbon credit post facto.

3. These countries agree to stabilize, (or to further reduce) deforestation in subsequent commitment periods.

4. Baseline revised downward over time.

5. Only a portion of the offsets might be valid in next period. Others could be valid for subsequent commitment periods.

Annual Amazon deforestation rate -- National Space Research Institute (INPE), Brazil (km2) http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/prodes_1988_2006.htmhttp://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/prodes_1988_2006.htm

Zero Deforestation Pact – Brasilia, October 3 Zero Deforestation Pact – Brasilia, October 3 2007 2007