Congress and Fundraising

Opportunities to discuss course content

• No office hours today or Wednesday

• Thursday 10-2

Learning Objectives• Analyze the theories of why people vote and

apply them to the 2012 Election.

• Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed.

• There is an L in Public, but no L in FECA

THE SENATE

The Dynamics

• The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend

– 23 Democratic Seats

– 10 Republican Seats

• Democrats have a 53-47 lead

Where Were They?

The Results

Democrats Republicans Incumbent Winners 16 5 (71%) Challenger Wins 1 (MA) 0 Open Seats Defended 6 of 7 2 of 4 Open Seats Captured 2 (IN, ME) 1 (Neb)

What Explains the Results

• Incumbency

• Partisanship

• Candidate Factors– Indiana – Missouri

A Banner Year for Political Money

• 1 Billion is Spent

Outside Money is important, but not crucial

Money isn’t Everything

• Self Financed candidates still lose

• Poor David Dewhurst

The Vanishing Center

• Moderates from Both Parties lost or Retired– Brown & Snow– Lieberman and Nelson

• Replaced by more extreme candidates from both parties

Looking ahead to 2014

• The Republicans expected to gain…they didn’t

• Democrats have More exposure

• 7 seats are from states where Obama won

Can the Democrats Expand

• Only 1 GOP Seat from a State where Obama Won

• Will the Republicans be “the stupid party”

STATEHOUSE POLITICS

Governor’s Races

• Footnotes in Presidential Years

• 11 Elections

• 5 Open Seats

The Results

• Incumbents went 6 for 6

• North Carolina was the Only Flip

• GOP has a net gain of +1

The Breakdown

• Lincoln Chafee (RI) is the independent

• 2 races in 2013– Chris Christie (NJ)– Virginia

STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

Going into 2012

• Republicans Held 26

• Democrats Held 15

• Only 8 legislatures were split

The Results

• Dems have a pick up of +3, GOP +1• Where Each party Did Well

The Impact of the Election

• Obama coattails did not reach the states

• Battles over the Affordable Care Act emerged

Campaign Finance

The First Amendment protects things we might like

And things we might not

Money is a form of Political Speech

• Buckley v. Valeo

• At the federal level, fundraising is not capped

• Neither are expenditures

Money Rules the Day in PoliticsA History of Campaign Finance

Buying the Presidency

• You had to have personal wealth

or

• You needed a patron

• Early laws

FECA 1971

• Contribution and Spending Limits

• Public Financing

• The Checkoff Box (then and now)

The 1972 election

• Nixon’s separate fund

• Exchanging donations for positions

FECA 1974

• Goals

• Enforcement

• Buckley vs Valeo

The Law did restrain Presidential Spending!

The Need for More Legislation BCRA

• Soft Money

• The Role of PACS

• Modernize the contribution amounts

Current Contribution Limits

The Rise and Fall of 527’s

• 527’s in 2004

• Why the Decline in 2008– The rise of 501(c)’s

– Recession

– Wisconsin Right to Life vs FEC• Money always finds a better outlet

HOW TO PAY FOR IT: LESSONS LEARNED FROM 2008

From Uncle Sugar or on your own?

The Most Expensive in History

Campaign Finance in 2008

• The First Billion Dollar Presidential Election

– The Demise of Public Funding in the General Election

– The Rise of the Internet as a fundraising tool

• These produced a president who would spend ¾ of a billion for a job that pays 400,000.

Overall Spending in 2008

• Estimates are at $2.4 billion for the presidency

• $5.3 billion overall on 2008 Elections

Mc Cain and Public Financing• Runs as a reformer, with

BCRA as his primary reform achievement

• McCain’s Decision to accept $84 million hindered his campaign

• He has 60% less money

We Used to have public financing of Presidential Elections

• This gave each candidate an equal amount to spend

• President Obama breaks the trend

• Obama raised more money than all other candidates combined

• Obama raised more than the RNC and DNC combined.

Obama has a huge Financial AdvantageMcCain Obama

Individuals $195,927,301 $656,610,810PACS $1,412,559 $1,280

Federal Funds $84,103,800 $0 Other $78,724,163 $83,450,000Total $360,167,823 $764,843,332

PUBLIC FINANCING IN 2012

The History of Taking the Money

• John Connolly and Steve Forbes

• Bush in 2000

• Bush and Kerry in 2004

• John Edwards in 2008

Government Money in the Primary

• Federal Money is available in primary and general election

• There are Eligibility Requirements, caps on spending, and caps on raising.

• 22 million from the G, and 55 million cap on spending

Federal Money in the 2012 Primaries

• In 2012, no one accepts it

• Candidate strategy helped end this

Public Funding for General Election

• Each candidate could receive 91 million in public money

• It doesn’t kick in until you are officially nominated

• This money served to reduce campaign costs and remove any potential for corruption

At the Presidential Level

This is Hard Money

The Future of Public Financing

• There is no strategic reason to favor it

• The Internet

• The low federal limit

• The Taboo was broken