Contributions of Drought Studies to the Global Earth Observations System of Systems (GEOSS)

Sept. 27, 2010Rick Lawford

UNESCO, Paris

© GEO Secretariat

• GEO is an Intergovernmental Group

– 80 Nations

– European Commission

– 58 Participating Organizations

• With a Single Objective: GEOSS

– To establish a global, coordinated, comprehensive and sustained system of Earth observation systems

Science

Observations

Technology

Operational Systems

GEOSS Networking-Task sheets- CoPs-Workshops- Prototypes

User ServicesFor SocietalBenefit Areas

Specific Gaps Addressed by GEO:-Information inventories- data democracy- interoperability- governance

Science

Observations

Technology

Operational Systems

GEOSS Networking-Task sheets- CoPs-Workshops

User ServicesFor SocietalBenefit Areas

Specific Gaps Addressed by GEO:-Information inventories- data democracy- interoperability- governance

Task WA-06-02 addresses the use of these data for assessments and

early warning

Task WA-06-07 disseminates data products and decisions

support systems to the world

Task WA-08-01 stimulates the development

of new WC data products

Interactions between the 2009-2011 GEO Water Tasks

Feedback

Feedback

DA—09-02A

Droughts, Floods and Water Resource Management

Address decision-making challenges related to the management of hydro-meteorological extremes and the sustainable use of water.

Water Cycle Target: By 2015, produce comprehensive sets of data, and information products and services to support decision-making for efficient management of the world's water resources, based on coordinated, sustained observations of the water cycle on multiple scales.

Work on drought draws upon the integrative products of WA-08-01 and contributesto the dissemination and capacity building tasks of WA-06-07.

Impacts from Drought

GEO Task WA-06-02b Co- Leads: Canada, USA and WCRP

Tracking and analyzing impacts from drought (including feedbacks such as soil drying) will provide a tangible and practical demonstration of the value of integrated water cycle observations by developing a full and operational data cycle of environmental information from “producer-to-consumer” / “source to sink,” and exploring the application of data products in the Water and Agriculture societal benefit areas.

Drought Impacts are tracked nationally and regionally because:

• They establish an impacts baseline for monitoring – Climate change, policy change effects, landscape modification, etc

• They direct relief in effective ways through national governments• They allow directed preparotory actions to be undertaken to reduce

vulnerability in advance of the next drought• They are a basis for “ground truthing” indices• They provide a basis for quantifying drought losses• They provide information for estimating environmental consequences

of drought.

• (Could they provide the same benefits if tracked globally?)

Lessons learned about impact studies and drought monitoring

1) Both impacts and monitoringaspects of drought must be looked atsimultaneously to understand the scopeof drought.

2) In order to provide more comprehensive drought monitoring a broad categorization is needed.

3) To meet the needs of governments special overlays are often needed (portray information by constituency).

4) Drought reporting creates opportunities for “citizen science”.

Drought in Europe: The Portuguese Condition

GEO-DRI Drought Monitoring WorkshopMay 10-11, 2010, Winnipeg, Manitoba (Canada)

Organic C in european soils (0-30 cm), in relation with soil erosion (Source: European Commission, 2004. Reports of the Technical Working Groups, II)

Water erosion in EU

115 million ha

(12% total area)

Wind erosion in EU

42 million ha

(4% total area)

DRI 2008Calgary

Wheat Quality: Statistically Significant Drought Index Correlations by Category

AC Barrie SuperbWater Supply Indices 0 3Water Demand Indices 19 24Water Balance Indices 14 18Water Use Indices 7 7

Evapotranspiration provides a more accurate estimate of wheat yield and quality than precipitation and should be utilized for assessment of agricultural drought.

(from Paul Bullock)

Drought studies indicate that we need to consider a wider range of basic water cycle variables within GEO.

By 2007, water-level dropped to 30 meter mark due to intensive water consumption, the sea practically split into three parts and the volume of water decreased by 10 times.

1987 y. 2005 y. 2009 y.

Uzbekistan is the main water resources consumer in Central Asian region

Surface water use

Even at present time there is significant deficiency of water resources in the region, and the most important problem is Aral Sea crisis.

Techniques needed to monitor hydrological drought especially wherethe conditions are affected by both management practices and climate.

Towards a Hydrologic Drought Monitor• Employed the threshold technique to characterise hydrologic

drought– Based upon work by Yevjevich (1967)

• Threshold level employed was the 10th percentile of monthly stream flow

Variables:

•Qz= threshold level

•ti= start of drought

•di= drought duration

•vi= deficit volume of drought (severity)

•vi/di= average deficit flow (intensity)

Figure modified from Flieg et al (2006)

ResultsActual and Apportionment Streamflow Drought Occurrence at Provincial Boundaries

a)

b)

c)

e)

f)

g)

h)

i)

j)

k)

l)

d)

Jan

/19

99

Ma

r/19

99

Ma

y/19

99

Jul/1

99

9S

ep

/19

99

No

v/19

99

De

c/19

99

Ma

r/20

00

Ma

y/20

00

Jul/2

00

0A

ug

/20

00

Oct/2

00

0D

ec/2

00

0M

ar/2

00

1M

ay/2

00

1Ju

l/20

01

Au

g/2

00

1O

ct/20

01

De

c/20

01

Ma

r/20

02

Ma

y/20

02

Jun

/20

02

Au

g/2

00

2O

ct/20

02

De

c/20

02

Ma

r/20

03

Ap

r/20

03

Jun

/20

03

Au

g/2

00

3O

ct/20

03

De

c/20

03

Fe

b/2

00

4A

pr/2

00

4Ju

n/2

00

4A

ug

/20

04

Oct/2

00

4D

ec/2

00

4

Year

Gau

gin

g S

tati

on

AB

-SK

Bo

rder S

K-M

B B

ord

er

Apportionment Actual

Gauging Stations: a) North Saskatchewan at Border, b) Red Deer at Bindloss, c) South Saskatchewan below Red Deer, d) South Saskatchewan at Medicine Hat, e) Battle Creek at Border, f) Lodge Creek at Border, g) Middle Creek at Border, h) Churchill River at the Border, i) Saskatchewan at The Pas, j) Red Deer near Erwood, k) Assiniboine at Kamsack and l) Pipestone Creek.

DRI has provided a prototype for GEOSS of ways in whichresults from research projects with finite duration can be integrated into GEOSS

DRI data legacy system is bringing data sets together to produce ananalysis systems that would allow users to identify the characteristics of the drought over the region during the 1999-2005 time period.

(Courtesy ofPhil Harder)

Pioneering User InteractionsPartner Assessments of DRI Research Products

J uly 2002: E vapotranspiration C onditions(from B rimelow and Hanes iak)

User workshops and Table Top Drought Preparedness simulations have been held with uses groups. In these workshops based on historicalevents users were asked:1. What did you respond to the drought and what information did you use?2. What could you do with the information that what is currently available?3. How would your decisions potentially change if you had access to information on new experimental products (e.g. Evapotranspiration)?

16

Some typical Mitigation and Response Actions

Non-structural approaches• Water availability and water supply report • Crop insurance, DFA (disaster financial assistance)• Water Conservation• Education and awareness

DroughtA number of states and provinces have formal drought response plans and strategies in place while others resist the concept. Plans commonly include:

Structural approaches• Reservoir construction and operation• Dugouts, hauling water, GW wells• Regional water supply systems

Is this range of responses sufficient for a changing climate?

START OF THEGROWING

SEASON6-month9-month12- month PRODUCERS:

- Crop Selection

- Fertilizer/pesticide decisions

- Cropping and Insurance Strategies

AGRI-BUSINESS

3-month

WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

GOVERNMENT CROPINSURANCE

LEAD TIME IN MONTHS

Perspectives on the forecast lead times for a forecasts ofthe coming growing season. (Expectations far exceed ourcurrent capabilities.)

Prototype Regional Drought Early Warning Test Beds GEO Task WA-06-02d Co- Leads: USA, WMO, and CanadaChad McNutt, Roger Pulwarty, Mike Brewer

Explore expanding the concepts of the North American Drought Monitor and the drought portal through prototyping drought early warning test bed activities in specific international river basins, such as on the US-Canada border, basins in Central America and the Caribbean, the Mediterranean, and other drought-sensitive regions.

Pathways to a Global Drought Monitoring Product

The mosaic approach

Guidance is needed on thenature of drought impactsin all parts of the worldand whether a small set of global indicators can actuallyprovide the diversity neededto fully represent drought

The single productcoverage

Drought Monitoring Activities Globally

Regional Drought Monitors

National Drought Monitoring

Drought Monitoring Centers (Government/University)

21

NIDIS ObjectivesNIDIS Objectives

Creating a drought early warning Creating a drought early warning informationinformation systemsystem

o CoordinatingCoordinating national drought national drought monitoring and forecasting systems monitoring and forecasting systems

o Providing an Providing an interactive drought interactive drought information clearinghouseinformation clearinghouse and and delivery system for products and servicesdelivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and —including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)Systems (GIS), maps, etc)

o Designing mechanisms for Designing mechanisms for improving improving and incorporatingand incorporating information to information to support coordinated preparedness and support coordinated preparedness and planningplanning

From Pilots to a National DEWS

Southeast

Colorado River Basin

California Prototyping

approaches/methods

Regional DEWS:Chesapeake Bay; Great Plains; Tennessee Valley; Montana; Columbia River Basin etc.

National DEWS Transferability

Discussions are on-going with NIDIS about establishing testbeds outside the USA in developing countries.

EuroGEOSS search semantic augmentation

www.ogcnetwork.net/AIP

EuroGEOSS Query Expansion (C. Fugazza)

AIP3: Work on Drought Ontologies is being carried out to introduceInteroperability between drought information systems

FutureForecasting for Droughts and FloodsImpacts from DroughtPrototype Regional Drought Early warning Test Beds

Mountain Water Resources (C) +Vulnerability of Mtn Regions (EC-09-02)

WA-06-02: Droughts, Floods and Water Resource Management

GFAS/GFFS/GFMP/GDMS/GDEWS

NIDISWMODRIJRC

CL-09-01?

SUMMARY

GEO has generated a substantial amount of interest in monitoring and responding to extreme events, especially drought. Droughtinterests are found in the Water SBA and the Agriculture SBA.In some cases the GEO discussions would be more effective ifthey were underpinned by a better understanding of the physicalprocesses governing the extreme events and of the strengths andlimitations of the tools used to monitor the phenomena. In the next work plan (2012-2015) efforts will be made to streamline the tasks dealing with droughts.