Manitoba Water Stewardship

Coping with Drought

Drought Research Initiative Workshop

Inn at the Forks, Winnipeg• • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

A.A. Warkentin

January 11-13, 2007

Annual Renewal of Water Supplies

Important Precipitation-based Parameters:

1. Soil Moisture at Freeze-Up (May-Oct. antecedent Year).

2. Snow Accumulation (November-March).

3. Spring/Early Summer Rains (April-July).

Parameter Analysis for Period 1933 – 2006 (74 years)

Mean of 9 Long-Term Stations in Southern Manitoba

Soil Moisture at Freeze-Up: Dry 19 years out of 74

Winter Precipitation: Dry 19 years out of 74

April – July Precipitation: Dry 16 years out of 74

Drought Persistence based on Parameter Analysis(Average of 9 Climate stations in Southern Manitoba)

For 19 Years when SM at Freeze-Up was Low:

Winter was Dry 5 times

Wet 5 times

Average 9 times

April – July was Dry 2 times

Wet 7 times

Average 10 times

Drought Analysis – Average of 9 Stations in Southern Manitoba

Of the 74 Years (1933 – 2006) in Southern Manitoba

None had all three parameters below 80% of average.

Following 12 years had low Parameters

1933

1934

1934

1940

1952

1961

1973

1977

1980

1988

2002

2004

Lake WinnipegosisMean Monthly Elevation

828.00

829.00

830.00

831.00

832.00

833.00

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Elev

atio

n (fe

et a

bove

sea

leve

l)

Lake WinnipegMean Monthly Elevation

711.00

712.00

713.00

714.00

715.00

716.00

717.00

718.00

719.00

Jan-

70

Jan-

72

Jan-

74

Jan-

76

Jan-

78

Jan-

80

Jan-

82

Jan-

84

Jan-

86

Jan-

88

Jan-

90

Jan-

92

Jan-

94

Jan-

96

Jan-

98

Jan-

00

Jan-

02

Jan-

04

Jan-

06

Elev

atio

n (fe

et a

bove

sea

leve

l)

Recorded

Summer Target

Lake of the WoodsMean Monthly Elevation for January

1056.00

1057.00

1058.00

1059.00

1060.00

1061.00

1062.00

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Elev

atio

n (fe

et a

bove

sea

leve

l)

Monthly Recorded

Average January (1970-2001)

Split Lake at Split LakeMean Monthly Elevation

542.00

544.00

546.00

548.00

550.00

552.00

554.00

Jan-75

Jan-77

Jan-79

Jan-81

Jan-83

Jan-85

Jan-87

Jan-89

Jan-91

Jan-93

Jan-95

Jan-97

Jan-99

Jan-01

Jan-03

Elev

atio

n (f

eet a

bove

sea

leve

l)

542.00

544.00

546.00

548.00

550.00

552.00

554.00

RecordedAveragePredicted DryPredicted Median

Red River at EmersonMean Monthly Flow for January

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1912

1917

1922

1927

1932

1937

1942

1947

1952

1957

1962

1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

Flow

(cfs

)

January Recorded

Average January (1970-2001)

Assiniboine River at HeadingleyMean Monthly Flow for January

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1913

1918

1923

1928

1933

1938

1943

1948

1953

1958

1963

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

Flow

(cfs

)

January Recorded

Average January (1970-2001)

Winnipeg River at Slave FallsMean Monthly Flow for January

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1907

1912

1917

1922

1927

1932

1937

1942

1947

1952

1957

1962

1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

Flow

(cfs

)

January Recorded

Average January (1970-2001)

Grass River at Standing Stone FallsMean Monthly Flow for January

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Flow

(cfs

)

January Recorded

Normal January (1970-2001)

Lake Minnewasta near MordenDaily Average Elevation

1065.00

1070.00

1075.00

1080.00

1085.00

1090.00

Jan-

83

Jan-

84

Jan-

85

Jan-

86

Jan-

87

Jan-

88

Jan-

89

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Elev

atio

n (fe

et a

bove

sea

leve

l)

Primary Drought Related Concerns

• Reservoir storages supplying communities.

• River levels to enable pumping for cities, towns, irrigation.

• Aquifer levels supplying communities, farms.

• Dugouts supplying water for cattle.

• Suitable lake levels for water supply, fish, recreation.

• Supplies for hydroelectric generation.

• Deterioration of Water Quality.

Primary Drought Sensitivities

• Summer reservoir operations sensitive to short intense meteorological droughts (2 – 4 weeks) within a relatively dry period.

• Multiple use reservoir operations sensitive to longer dry periods (several months to years).

• Rivers, dugouts sensitive to short droughts like 2006.

• Spring runoff very important but rest of year important also.

• Aquifers sensitive to multiple year droughts.

• Long term drought-proofing strategies sensitive to design drought (worst on record).

• Water uses sensitive to temperature.

• Water quality sensitive to flow rates, temperature and

• Historical and real time levels of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, aquifers – Water Survey of Canada, Manitoba Water Stewardship.

• Information on water uses – Manitoba Water Stewardship and licensed users.

• Precipitation Data and Statistics – Timely Climate Monitoring Network.

• Climate Outlooks – MSC and NOAA.

• Soil Moisture – Manitoba Water Stewardship, Manitoba Agriculture.

• Snowcover – Manitoba Water Stewardship, Climate Research Branch.

• Drought Indices (NADM) – PFRA.

• On-farm water supplies – Manitoba Water Services Board, PFRA, Manitoba Agriculture.

• Information on local conditions – regional staff of provincial and municipal government.

Drought Information Sources

Water Supply Conditions and Outlook for Manitoba 2004

Based on Lower Decile Precipitation from February onward

Water Branch, Manitoba Water Stewardship, February 5, 2004

• Historical Droughts, Weather.

• Soil Moisture and Snowcover Conditions

• Status / Forecast for Major Rivers, Lakes, Reservoirs Aquifers, On-Farm Water supplies

• Potential Problems within each Major Watershed.

MANITOBAWATER BRANCH

Spring Runoff Forecast For 2004With Lower Decile Precip. Feb.-April

Percent of 30 Year MedianPREPARED: DRAWN: SUBMITTED:

DATE:A.A.W. Jan. 30, 2004

Provisional Data( Subject to Revision )

SASK

ATC

HE

WA

N

U.S.A.

ONTA

RIO

LakeWinnipeg

ReindeerLake

BigSandLake

SouthernIndianLake Stephens

Lake

SplitLake

Knee Lake

GodsLake

Sipiwesk

Lake

Highrock

Lake

Wekusko

Lake

IslandLake

CedarLake

Hudson Bay

River

Nel

son Ha

yes

Rive

r

Gods

River

Church

ill

River

Winnipeg

Thompson

Dauphin

Brandon

Flin Flon

The Pas

SCALE IN MILES

025 25 50 75 100

Yorkton

Regina

Saskatoon

Swift Current

Estevan

Minot

Grand Forks

Fargo

Prince Albert

North Battleford

Vermilion

Coronation

ALB

ER

TA

Lynne Lake

MA

NIT

OB

A

MAN

ITOBA

Medicine Hat

MA

NIT

OB

A

ON

TAR

IO

La Ronge

Cree Lake

SASK

ATC

HE

WA

N

Atikokan

Kenora

Red Lake

Sandy Lake

Big Trout Lake

Lake St. Joseph

Lac Seul

Lake of the Woods

25

50

75

25

75

50

50

75

25

25

50

100

100

100

Feb. 3, 2004 Manitoba Water Stewardship

Summary of Water Supply / Spring Flood Outlook for 2004Based on Lower Decile Weather from now on.

Spring Runoff:

- Well below average most areas due to dry soil, low depression storage (flood risk is very low).

Rivers:

- most larger rivers presently at 10 – 20 year lows.- Red, Assiniboine, Churchill lower than in 2003.

- some improvement on Winnipeg River, Nelson River.

- continued water shortages for optimum hydroelectric generation.

- water quality, fishery a concern.Lakes:

- Many lakes presently at 10 – 20 year lows.- minor rise or decline expected in 2004.- water quality, recreation and fish a serious concern.

Reservoirs: (operated by Manitoba Water Stewardship)

- most reservoirs close to full after spring runoff.

- reservoirs with small drainage areas will remain low.

- could be some stress on Shellmouth Reservoir.

Aquifers:

- Most aquifers low but not as low as in early 1990’s.

- minor rise in spring likely (significant in confined aquifers).

- levels in autumn lower than in 2003 on heavily used aquifers.

- wells on smaller aquifers could run dry.

- fringe areas of major aquifers could run dry.

- continued problems at Ogilvie Aquifers.

- possible water access problems at Selkirk, Birds Hill, McCreary.

On-Farm Water Supplies:

- dugouts are very low in most areas except SE Manitoba.

- should be enough water to pump-fill most dugouts this spring.

- many shallow farm wells likely to run dry by late summer.

- water hauling will be necessary where piped water not available.

Feb. 3, 2004 Manitoba Water Stewardship

Summary of Water Supply / Spring Flood Outlook for 2004Based on Lower Decile Weather from now on.

Lake Manitoba Forecast---2004Hydrologic Forecast Centre, Jan 28, 2004

809

810

811

812

813

814

815

Mar-01

May-01

Jul-0

1

Sep-0

1

Nov-0

1

Jan-

02

Mar-02

May-02

Jul-0

2

Sep-0

2

Nov-0

2

Jan-

03

Mar-03

May-03

Jul-0

3

Sep-0

3

Nov-0

3

Jan-

04

Mar-04

May-04

Jul-0

4

Feet

abo

ve S

ea L

evel

Observed

Predicted Lower Decile

Predicted Median

Predicted Upper Decile

Summer Target (under review)

Shellmouth Reservoir Operation Scenarios---Jan. 28, 2004Hydrologic Forecast Centre, Water Branch, Manitoba Water Stewardship

Maintain 150 cfs unless Heavy Snow develops

1390

1395

1400

1405

1410Ja

n. 2

8/04

Jan.

31/

04

Feb.

14/

04

Feb.

28/

04

Mar

. 15/

04

Mar

. 31/

04

Apr.

15/0

4

Apr.

30/0

4

May

15/

04

May

31/

04

June

15/

04

Res

ervo

ir Le

vel i

n Fe

et

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Out

flow

in C

FS

Lower Decile LevelMedian LevelUpper Decile LevelTarget After Spring RunoffLower Decile OutflowMedianUpper Decile

Manitoba Water Stewardship

Uses of Drought Information• Hydrologic data is used in combination with soil moisture, precipitation, and climate statistics to prepare forecasts for rivers, reservoirs, and lakes.

• Control works operated based on forecasts and risk of drought continuing.

• Inter-Departmental Drought Committee activated when risk of water shortages is high. Plans formulated to cope with drought.

• Water conservation is undertaken – uses restricted to important needs.

• Actions such as:

- pumping to fill dugouts during spring.

- water hauling.

- deepening of wells, drilling new wells.

- using alternate sources of water.

- water rationing.

Pertinent DRI Research

• Forecasting onset of Droughts.

• Forecasting Duration of Droughts.

• Forecasting Spatial Extent of Drought.

• Forecasting Severity of Droughts.

• Statistics (probability) of various types of droughts for several time horizons e.g. 2050, 2100.

(Frequency, Duration, Extent, Severity)

• Knowledge of Causes.e.g. Less Snow, Greater Evapotranspiration, different annual time

distribution of runoff, summer dry or winter dry.

Short Term (first year):• Outline Objectives and Research Conducted.

• Ask Partners for Feedback.

• Progress Report at end of Year.

Longer Term (next 4 years):• Annual Progress Reports.

• Additional Workshop at end of 2nd Year (or as Recommended by Researchers).

• Overview of significant results as soon as available.

Manitoba Water Stewardship

How can DRI work with us?

Lake WinnipegosisMean Monthly Elevation for January

828.00

829.00

830.00

831.00

832.00

833.00

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Elev

atio

n (fe

et a

bove

sea

leve

l)

Monthly Recorded

Average January (1970-2001)

Lake WinnipegMean Monthly Elevation for January

711.00

712.00

713.00

714.00

715.00

716.00

717.00

718.00

719.00

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Elev

atio

n (fe

et a

bove

sea

leve

l)

Monthly Recorded

Average January (1970-2001)

Lake of the WoodsMean Monthly Elevation

1056.00

1057.00

1058.00

1059.00

1060.00

1061.00

1062.00

Jan-

70

Jan-

72

Jan-

74

Jan-

76

Jan-

78

Jan-

80

Jan-

82

Jan-

84

Jan-

86

Jan-

88

Jan-

90

Jan-

92

Jan-

94

Jan-

96

Jan-

98

Jan-

00

Jan-

02

Jan-

04

Jan-

06

Elev

atio

n (fe

et a

bove

sea

leve

l)

Recorded

Summer Target

Churchill River at Leaf RapidsMean Monthly Flow for January

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

Flow

(cfs

)

January Recorded

Normal January (1973-2001)