credit suisse monthly survey of real estate agents results may 2013

7/28/2019 Credit Suisse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents Results May 2013

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CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES (USA) LLC

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HomePriceIndex

50 - Higher than Prior Month

Sellers continue to find pricing power, benefiting fromhealthy demand coupled with still-low inventory levels

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND

THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/ researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Disclosure:

Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that

could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

June 06, 2013

Daniel Oppenheim, CFA

Homebuilding & Building Products

212-325-5726

[email protected]

Michael Dahl

[email protected]

William Alexis

212-538-3992

[email protected]

Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents May 2013

Source: Credit Suisse


2/55

May 13Slide 2

May Survey of Real Estate Agents:Opportuni ty Knocks and Buyers Answer with Higher Bids Higher prices, lower supply, and strong traffi c - buyers feel pressed to lo ck in a deal : Prices continued to climb

higher in May, as agents noted that competition for homes (from investors, cash buyers, and traditional owner-occupants), remained high. Buyers were said to be more than willing to bid higher for homes, even with modestly higherrates.

Pricing Posts further gains in May: Our home price index came in at 84.9 in May, relatively unchanged from ourreading of 84.8 in April, and suggesting price increases across markets. As we have noted, further increases in theindex may be hard to realize given the already very high level it has reached, but points to a tight market with significantupward pricing pressure. California markets continue to exhibit the greatest strength, while Florida, Phoenix, Vegas andTexas (Austin, Dallas, Houston) experienced very strong pricing gains as well.

Traffic remains above expectations, competition still fierce: Our buyer traffic index dipped one point, coming in at63.4 from 64.4 in April, though levels indicated that traffic exceeded agents expectations for this time of year. Based onagents commentary, the slightly lower reading was driven by some buyers stepping back after the rapid price increases.However, most buyers were said to be eager to find homes, and that rising mortgage rates were a motivating factor in

May, as buyers wanted to lock-in mortgage rates before the opportunity passed. Time needed to sell a ho me continues to decline: Our time to sell index a leading indicator for home price trends

came in at 81 in May, unchanged from our index reading in April, pointing to less time needed to sell a home over thepast month. As with our price index, we think it will be difficult to continue to see further increases in the index, but itremains well above 50, which is indicative of a market in which well-priced homes dont stay on the market for long, andbuyers must act quickly.

Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 52.0 68.3 49.9 75.7 68.3

Jan-13 59.0 74.6 52.4 74.7 71.5

Feb-13 65.1 79.3 51.5 72.7 75.4

Mar-13 66.1 83.7 53.0 71.7 80.8

Apr-13 64.4 84.8 52.9 73.7 81.0

May-13 63.4 84.9 54.1 67.1 81.1

Point Change (0.9) 0.1 1.1 (6.5) 0.1

42%

43%

15%

Traffic Levels Versus Expectations

More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected

72%

12%5%

26%

69%

27%

2%

20%

68%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell

How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare tothe Prior 30 Days...

Increased Remained the same Decreased

Source: Credit Suisse


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May 13Slide 3

Table of ContentsKey Housing Markets: Key Housing Markets Continued:

4 Atlanta, Georgia 26 Orlando, Florida5 Austin, Texas 27 Philadelphia-Southern New Jersey6 Baltimore, Maryland 28 Phoenix, Arizona7 Boston, Massachusetts 29 Portland, Oregon8 Charleston, South Carolina 30 Raleigh, North Carolina9 Charlotte, North Carolina 31 Richmond, Virginia

10 Chicago, Illinois 32 Sacramento, California11 Cincinnati, Ohio 33 San Antonio, Texas12 Columbus, Ohio 34 San Diego, California13 Dallas, Texas 35 San Francisco, California14 Denver, Colorado 36 Sarasota, Florida15 Detroit, Michigan 37 Seattle, Washington16 Fort Myers, Florida 38 St. Louis, Missouri17 Houston, Texas 39 Tampa, Florida18 Inland Empire (Riverside-San Bernardino), California 40 Tucson, Arizona19 Jacksonville, Florida 41 Virginia Beach, Virginia20 Las Vegas, Nevada 42 Washington, D.C.21 Los Angeles, California 43 Wilmington, North Carolina22 Miami, Florida Appendix:23 Minneapolis, Minnesota 45 Historical Trends by Market24 Nashville, Tennessee 50 Agent Recommendations25 New York-Northern New Jersey 52 Survey Methodology


4/55

May 13Slide 4

Atlanta, GA Steady Demand, but Rising Prices Start to Concern Buyers, Especially with Low Inventory

Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau

(9,146 single-family building permits in 2012, 5th largest market in the country)

Comments from Real Estate Agents:

Insufficient inventory for buyer demand. Buyers seem to begiving up after being beat out by multiple offers too manytimes.

Finally....the market traffic is at expected levels for buyers.

The seller traffic is still lagging behind and it will requiremore media attention on the appreciation numbers for sellersto get on board and list their homes.

Buyers are increasingly coming off the fence with theanticipation that rates will move upward.

Sellers want high dollar.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic levels were unchanged in May and in-line withagents expectations, as our index edged down to 53 from 54in April (in-line with a neutral reading of 50). Agents noted

buyers seem to want to get off the fence, particularly with ratesnow rising, but are increasingly frustrated by the competitionfor a limited number of quality listings.

Home prices continued to march higher, as our price indexjumped to 93 in May from 82 in April.

Inventory levels continued to decline, along with the time tosell, which should lead to further pricing power for sellers.

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BuyerTrafficIndex

50 - Exceeds Expectations

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HomePriceIndex

50 -Higher than Prior Month

Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexDec-12 53.3 55.6 43.8 75.0 68.8

Jan-13 45.5 36.4 45.5 90.9 59.1

Feb-13 73.1 84.6 42.9 92.9 76.9

Mar-13 63.6 83.3 50.0 75.0 87.5

Apr-13 53.6 82.1 46.4 57.1 71.4

May-13 53.1 93.3 43.3 65.6 81.3

Point Change (0.4) 11.2 (3.1) 8.5 9.8

31%

44%

25%



87%

20%6%

13%

73%

25%

0%7%

69%

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80%

100%





5/55

May 13Slide 5

Austin, TX Firing on All Cylinders as Local Job Growth Underpins Strong Demand and Home Prices


(7,970 single-family permits in 2012, 7th largest market in the country)


Everyone wants to move here and no one wants to leave!Prices are rising rapidly, motivating buyers to act and takeadvantage of low rates too.

Jobs and new people to the city and state are driving the

consistent increase in traffic. May was the feel good month of the year, so far... We hear

many buyers saying they'll buy now rather than later whenthe same house will cost more as sales prices rise.

Builders getting way too greedy; appraisals are not comingclose in many cases to their prices.

Our Take:

Traffic remained at high levels above agents expectations inMay, as our traffic index was little changed at 81 vs. 82 inApril. Rising buyer confidence is underpinned by a very healthy

local economy with strong job growth. Every agent surveyed noted higher prices in May vs. April, as

our home price index came in at 100 vs. 96 in April.

Inventory levels continue to lag the strong demand trends,leading to increasing pricing power. We expect higher pricesto ultimately lead more sellers to list their homes, but thisadjustment may be gradual.

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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexDec-12 53.1 78.1 53.1 71.9 71.9

Jan-13 57.1 82.1 57.1 64.3 75.0

Feb-13 76.7 93.3 66.7 85.7 93.3

Mar-13 76.7 96.7 63.3 63.3 93.3

Apr-13 81.8 95.8 69.2 76.9 92.3

May-13 80.8 100.0 63.6 75.0 87.5

Point Change (1.0) 4.2 (5.6) (1.9) (4.8)

69%

23%

8%



100%

9%0%0%

55%

25%

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75%

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80%100%

120%





6/55

May 13Slide 6

Baltimore, MD Demand Remains Below Expectations, though Home Prices Continue to Move Higher




Insufficient inventory. Buyers may have stayed awaythinking there was nothing to see.

People are more anxious; could be the press or maybeconcerns about the interest rate going up.

Rates are still low and buyers are making the move beforerates increase.

Interest rates are still very good, buyers are takingadvantage of that.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic bounced back a bit in May after the sharp declinein April, but remained below expectations. Our traffic indexincreased to 39 from 25, below a neutral 50. The lack of

economic improvement is likely most to blame, though agentsalso cited a lack of inventory and concern over rising rates.

Nevertheless, home prices continued to move higher. Ourprice index slipped to 83 from 100, still above a neutral 50.

Inventory and time to sell trends remained positive, but overtime we still need better demand/economic activity to supporthigher home prices.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexDec-12 38.9 50.0 33.3 83.3 66.7

Jan-13 33.3 55.6 62.5 87.5 72.2

Feb-13 66.7 58.3 50.0 91.7 91.7

Mar-13 61.1 80.0 55.6 75.0 65.0

Apr-13 25.0 100.0 50.0 100.0 87.5

May-13 38.9 83.3 43.8 66.7 88.9

Point Change 13.9 (16.7) (6.3) (33.3) 1.4

22%

33%

45%



67%

25%

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63%

22%

0%13%

78%

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100%




0102030405060708090

100

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HomePriceIndex



7/55

May 13Slide 7

Boston, MA Pent-Up Demand Being Unleashed as Buyer Confidence Improves




5 years of pent up demand and continuing low interestrates.

Lower rates and lack of inventory.

Confidence in the market moving up.

If you assume a 60 day normal closing cycle, clients arerunning out of time to purchase a home and enroll the kids inthe school district. Basically, we have about another thirtydays or so.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic slipped sequentially but remained at healthylevels, as our traffic index came in at 67 vs. 75 in April (stillabove a neutral 50). Agents noted improving confidence

leading to unleashed pent-up demand, though the lack ofinventory is a limitation along with some seasonal slowing.

Home prices continued to rise in May, as our price index wasunchanged at 92. Nearly all agents indicated higher prices.

Falling inventory levels and a shorter time to sell will likelycontinue to drive home prices higher in the coming months.

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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexDec-12 50.0 70.0 60.5 84.2 72.5

Jan-13 61.1 80.6 52.8 76.3 81.6

Feb-13 73.3 86.7 53.6 73.3 76.7

Mar-13 80.8 88.5 65.4 60.7 82.1

Apr-13 75.0 91.7 60.0 79.2 75.0

May-13 66.7 91.7 59.1 70.8 91.7

Point Change (8.3) 0.0 (0.9) (8.3) 16.7

42%

50%

8%



83%

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82%

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8/55

May 13Slide 8

Charleston, SC Buyers Want in Before Prices and Rates Rise; Second-Home Buyers More Active




No inventory, sellers starting to raise prices. More loansavailable.

Clients feel if they are going to buy they should do it now.

Scared that rates will rise significantly.

Many second-home buyers.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic improved in May, though activity has been volatileas of late. Our traffic index jumped to 64 from 33 in April,indicating better than expected traffic. Agents indicated that

buyers want to get in before prices and rates move muchhigher, and second-home buyers are also more active.

Our home price index increased to 86 in May from 67 in April,pointing to higher home prices sequentially.

Favorable trends in both inventory levels and the time neededto sell a home should support further price increases over thecoming months.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexDec-12 50.0 70.0 40.0 41.7 66.7

Jan-13 25.0 75.0 50.0 25.0 62.5

Feb-13 25.0 66.7 50.0 50.0 37.5

Mar-13 57.1 85.7 50.0 57.1 78.6

Apr-13 33.3 66.7 50.0 66.7 66.7

May-13 64.3 85.7 50.0 64.3 78.6

Point Change 31.0 19.0 0.0 (2.4) 11.9

43%

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9/55

May 13Slide 9

Charlotte, NC Buyers Continue to See Opportunity Given the Still-Low Prices and Rates




Prices are rising and mortgages are still low.

Record low inventory of homes, low rates, opportunity tobuy now.

Rising rents and fear of home prices and interest rates

increasing are getting the buyers out. Activity remains brisk and sales are only slowed by the lack

of inventory.

Fewer showings than February, March and April. Noexplanation except perhaps more inventory is now available.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic remained at similar levels in May vs. April, stillabove agents expectations as our index increased slightly to67 from 65 in April (above a neutral 50). Agents said the main

driver remains the attractive affordability of for-sale housing,especially given the rising rents.

Home prices also increased further, as our home price indexcame improved to 88 in May from 83 in April.

Inventory levels ticked lower, while it also took less time to sella home in May. Both are positive leading indicators for homeprices.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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100

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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexDec-12 50.0 72.2 44.4 83.3 61.1

Jan-13 75.0 85.0 54.5 86.4 75.0

Feb-13 86.4 81.8 45.5 72.7 63.6

Mar-13 90.9 100.0 63.6 72.7 95.0

Apr-13 65.4 83.3 46.2 46.2 73.1

May-13 66.7 87.5 66.7 62.5 91.7

Point Change 1.3 4.2 20.5 16.3 18.6

50%

33%

17%



75%

8% 8%

25%

50%

0%0%

42%

92%

0%

20%

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80%

100%





10/55

May 13Slide 10

Chicago, IL Home Prices Continue to Recover as Demand Improves




Great mortgage rates, selling prices, and strong customerconfidence.

Greater market demand, due to affordability and lack ofproduct.

I think people are feeling more confident about the jobmarket.

People are scared the prices will go up, low interest rates;lots of competition.

Shortage of properties, pent-up demand, fear the mortgagerates will go up.

Our Take:

Traffic increased in May and beat agents expectations, as ourtraffic index improved to 68 from 60 in April (above a neutral50). This matches the highest level of the year. Agents widely

cited an unlocking of pent-up demand driven by increasedconfidence and affordability, along with buyer fears of missingout if they dont buy now.

Our home price index reached its highest level since July 05,rising to 81 in May from 70 in April.

Falling inventory levels and a shorter time to sell shouldsupport further price increases.

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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexDec-12 46.4 44.6 50.0 81.5 62.5

Jan-13 60.6 62.0 50.0 78.0 59.2

Feb-13 68.3 60.9 57.4 64.1 68.8

Mar-13 63.5 76.4 51.6 77.8 75.0

Apr-13 59.6 70.0 41.7 61.5 73.1

May-13 68.3 81.3 50.0 68.8 77.4

Point Change 8.7 11.3 8.3 7.2 4.3

50%

37%

13%



72%

14% 10%19%

71%

26%

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65%

0%

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80%





11/55

May 13Slide 11

Cincinnati, OH Steady Traffic and Lower Inventory Lead to Higher Prices




It's been moderately steady all year.

Buyers see prices gong up and now are afraid they will paytoo much.

Economy and interest rates.

Fewer homes for sale.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic levels were unchanged in May vs. April and alsoin-line with agents expectations for this time of year, as ourindex came in at a neutral 50.

Home prices continued to trend higher on the back of steadydemand and lower inventory, as our home price index came inat 79 in May vs. 81 in April.

Inventory levels continued to trend lower, though there arehints that supply is beginning to come back to the market, asour home listings index dropped to 57 from 81, just barelyabove a neutral reading of 50.

0102030405060708090

100

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-1

1

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb-1

2

Mar-1

2

Apr-1

2

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-1

2

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb-1

3

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

BuyerTrafficIndex


0

1020

30

40

50

60

7080

90

May-11

Jun-11

Ju

l-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oc

t-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Ma

r-12

Ap

r-12

May-12

Jun-12

Ju

l-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oc

t-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

May-13

HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexDec-12 59.1 54.5 55.0 81.8 68.2

Jan-13 71.4 57.1 42.9 92.9 71.4

Feb-13 70.0 60.0 50.0 60.0 80.0

Mar-13 66.7 58.3 58.3 83.3 83.3

Apr-13 50.0 81.3 50.0 81.3 81.3

May-13 50.0 78.6 57.1 57.1 71.4

Point Change 0.0 (2.7) 7.1 (24.1) (9.8)

28%

43%

29%



57%

0%14%

43%

86%

29%

0%14%

57%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%





12/55

May 13Slide 12

Columbus, OH Lack of Inventory Hurts Traffic, Helps Sellers Achieve Higher Prices




Limited inventory has cut down on number of showingsneeded to get homes sold. Properties are selling quickly.

Definitely low inventory and low interest rates play a role.

Low inventory. Lots of buyers but few sellers, including

REO. Buyers are feeling more confident in the market.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic dipped back into neutral territory in May, as ourtraffic index fell to 50 from 69 in April (in-line with agentsexpectations for this time of year). Agents largely blamed the

lack of inventory for limiting sales activity. Sellers are gaining pricing power given the lack of supply. Our

home price index increased to 83 in May from 79 in April, thefifth straight month of rising prices.

Inventory levels ticked higher in May, as more sellers started tocome out in response to the higher level of demand and homeprices. This could limit the pace of home price appreciation.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-1

1

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb-1

2

Mar-1

2

Apr-1

2

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-1

2

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb-13

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

BuyerTrafficIndex


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

May-11

Jun-11

Ju

l-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oc

t-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Ma

r-12

Ap

r-12

May-12

Jun-12

Ju

l-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oc

t-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

May-13

HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexDec-12 50.0 54.5 35.0 72.7 59.1

Jan-13 50.0 75.0 50.0 66.7 83.3

Feb-13 57.1 68.8 42.9 68.8 87.5

Mar-13 40.0 60.0 40.0 80.0 90.0

Apr-13 68.8 78.6 50.0 78.6 92.9

May-13 50.0 83.3 41.7 41.7 75.0

Point Change (18.8) 4.8 (8.3) (36.9) (17.9)

16%

67%

17%



67%

17%

0%

33%

83%

50%

0% 0%

50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%





13/55

May 13Slide 13

Dallas, TX Strength in Demand and Home Prices Continue, though Expectations are Moving Higher Too


(17,821 single-family permits in 2012, 2nd largest market in the country)


Not much inventory and more buyers coming in from out ofstate. Any good area and the home is priced right is gettingmultiple offers.

People are just ready and are still hoping to find a deal.

They think prices have bottomed and interest rates are goingup. It appears to be true today.

Seller market. Buyers do not want to lose out.

The lack of listing inventory has created a buyer frenzy.

Appraisers are loosening up a bit.

Our Take:

Our buyer traffic index fell again in May, though it remained athealthy levels and the decline may be more reflective of higherexpectations from agents following months of strength, as

nearly all comments were still positive. Our traffic index camein at 65 vs. 80 in April, still above a neutral 50.

Agents overwhelmingly indicated higher home prices in May,as our price index came in at 90 vs. 97 in April.

Home prices appear poised for further gains given the soliddemand combined with lower inventory levels and a shorterlength of time needed to sell.

0102030405060708090

100

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

BuyerTrafficIndex


0102030405060708090

100

May-11

Jun-11

Ju

l-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oc

t-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Ma

r-12

Ap

r-12

May-12

Jun-12

Ju

l-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oc

t-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

May-13

HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexDec-12 58.3 54.2 45.0 72.7 63.6

Jan-13 56.3 81.3 50.0 75.0 65.6

Feb-13 70.8 79.2 50.0 75.0 79.2

Mar-13 91.7 83.3 54.5 70.8 95.8

Apr-13 80.0 96.7 67.9 78.6 90.0

May-13 65.0 90.0 66.7 65.0 100.0

Point Change (15.0) (6.7) (1.2) (13.6) 10.0

40%

50%

10%



80%

0% 0%

20%

67%

0%0%

33%

100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%100%

120%




D CO M k R i H l h S ll M b M Willi Li Gi R P i G i


14/55

May 13Slide 14

Denver, CO Market Remains Healthy; Sellers May be More Willing to List Given Recent Price Gains




Low rates and super low inventory are driving business.Buyers are in a frenzy anxiously awaiting new listings to hitthe market. The minute they show up in the MLS buyersscramble in hordes to see them and make offers.

Buyer confidence improved starting in February andbecame certain in April and May. A lot of pent-up demandfrom the past 4 years with very little inventory.

There's still a lack of confidence in the younger age buyers.This makes it difficult to move up. Also, a lot of people stillcan't afford to move because they are underwater.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic slipped sequentially but still exceeded agentsexpectations, as our traffic index fell to 69 from 75 in April.Agents noted improving buyer confidence, but also a lack of

inventory to meet those buyers needs. In addition, some citednegative equity as a drag despite recent home price gains.

Home prices continued moving higher, as our home price indexcame in at 86, down from 94 but well above a neutral 50.

Inventory may be starting to adjust to meet higher demand, asour index was only modestly above a neutral level, though themarket remains supportive of higher prices.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

BuyerTrafficIndex


0102030405060708090

100

May-11

Jun-11

Ju

l-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oc

t-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Ma

r-12

Ap

r-12

May-12

Jun-12

Ju

l-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oc

t-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

May-13

HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexDec-12 56.8 65.9 50.0 93.2 73.8

Jan-13 69.6 82.1 51.9 76.8 76.8

Feb-13 73.9 87.5 52.2 84.8 93.8

Mar-13 70.8 89.6 54.5 69.6 76.1

Apr-13 75.0 93.8 65.0 77.1 79.2

May-13 68.8 85.7 60.9 56.5 82.6

Point Change (6.3) (8.0) (4.1) (20.6) 3.4

46%

46%

8%



76%

4% 0%

19%

70%

35%

5%

26%

65%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%




D i MI B M C fid b S ill W i i f h Ri h H Hi h M k


15/55

May 13Slide 15

Detroit, MI Buyers are More Confident but Still Waiting for the Right Homes to Hit the Market




We have normal buyer traffic for this time of year, but ashortage of sellers still. Multiple offers continue to increasesales prices.

Actually has slowed some, but still the best market was

have had in many years; still a value driven market for themost part.

Lack of viable inventory. Buyers are there but only activelylooking for specific properties in specific areas.

The buyers have been waiting for too long and are finallyready to buy.

Our Take:

Traffic continued to downshift a bit in May, but remains in-linewith agents expectations for this time of year, as our indexcame slipped to 54 from 57 in April (in-line with a neutral 50).

While agents mostly noted continued interest among buyers,finding the right home at the right price is still a challenge giventhe low levels of inventory.

Home prices continued to recover, as our home price indexwas little-changed at 88 in May vs. 89 in April.

Inventory levels and the time needed to sell a home bothcontinued to trend favorably in May, a positive for home prices.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

BuyerTrafficIndex


0102030405060708090

100

May-11

Jun-11

Ju

l-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oc

t-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Ma

r-12

Ap

r-12

May-12

Jun-12

Ju

l-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oc

t-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

May-13

HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 37.5 79.2 40.9 79.2 66.7

Jan-13 40.0 66.7 60.7 86.7 63.3

Feb-13 58.3 86.1 55.6 75.0 79.4

Mar-13 67.5 85.0 55.3 72.5 84.2

Apr-13 57.1 89.3 57.7 78.6 82.1

May-13 53.8 87.5 45.5 83.3 83.3

Point Change (3.3) (1.8) (12.2) 4.8 1.2

23%

62%

15%



75%

9%0%

25%

91%

33%

0% 0%

67%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




Ft M FL L k f S l Add t U K i S Bi d A d L th U l


16/55

May 13Slide 16

Ft. Myers, FL Lack of Supply Adds to Urgency, Keeping Snow Birds Around Longer than Usual




Market remains healthy for this late in our tourist season. Ithink that a shortage of properties has encouraged buyers tokeep buying.

Inventory down, prices increasing results in less choices for

buyers in the entry level stage. Short supply, buyers still scouring for deals.

Fewer REO deals and seasonal slow down.

Snow bird market and they are back north.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic improved relative to seasonal expectations in May,as our index increased to 58 from 54 (above agentsexpectations). Agents seemed encouraged that traffic levelsremained healthy despite what is normally a slower period assecond-home buyers return home, crediting the tight supply forcreating increased buyer urgency.

Home prices increased again in May, as our home price indexcame in at 75 vs. 79 in April (well above a neutral 50).

Home listings continued to decline, and it is also taking lesstime to sell a home positive leading indicators for pricing.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

BuyerTrafficIndex


0102030405060708090

100

Ma

y-11

Jun-11

Ju

l-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oc

t-11

No

v-11

De

c-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Ma

r-12

Ap

r-12

Ma

y-12

Jun-12

Ju

l-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oc

t-12

No

v-12

De

c-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-13

HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 28.6 85.7 50.0 71.4 75.0

Jan-13 47.4 85.0 40.0 72.5 77.5

Feb-13 50.0 75.0 38.9 83.3 66.7

Mar-13 37.5 77.3 45.5 72.7 63.6

Apr-13 53.3 78.6 42.9 82.1 82.1

May-13 58.3 75.0 41.7 79.2 83.3

Point Change 5.0 (3.6) (1.2) (3.0) 1.2

42%

33%

25%



50%

33%

0%

50% 50%

33%

0%

17%

67%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

70%




H t TX G th i J b d P l ti C ti i t D i St T ffi d H P i


17/55

May 13Slide 17

Houston, TX Growth in Jobs and Population Continuing to Drive Strong Traffic and Home Prices


(28,568 single-family permits in 2012, largest market in the country)


This month cooled off.

Market for historical neighborhood near downtown is on firewith two-thirds of the homes selling at asking or over askingprice as oil companies continue to relocate employees to

Houston and little inventory to sell. Houston is booming. Lots of newcomers. Local buyers are

coming off the fence. Rising interest rates are motivatingbuyers also.

Shortage of inventory, rise of interest rates.

Good economy and corporate relocations.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic pulled back slightly relative to expectations butremained extremely strong, as our traffic index came in at 78vs. 92 in April. A solid local economy with good populationgrowth is continuing to underpin the improving housingdemand and home prices.

Nearly all agents noted rising home prices, as our home priceindex increased to 97 in May from 87 in April.

The number of home listings and the length of time needed tosell a home both continued to trend lower in May, suggestinghome prices are likely to rise further in coming months.

0102030405060708090

100

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

BuyerTrafficIndex


0102030405060708090

100

Ma

y-11

Jun-11

Ju

l-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oc

t-11

No

v-11

De

c-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Ma

r-12

Ap

r-12

Ma

y-12

Jun-12

Ju

l-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oc

t-12

No

v-12

De

c-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-13

HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 50.0 79.4 44.1 82.4 88.2

Jan-13 61.9 83.3 45.2 76.2 87.5

Feb-13 77.8 81.6 50.0 78.9 77.8

Mar-13 62.5 79.2 45.8 92.3 83.3

Apr-13 91.7 86.8 47.4 78.9 89.5

May-13 77.8 97.2 62.5 91.2 88.2

Point Change (13.9) 10.4 15.1 12.2 (1.2)

67%

22%

11%



94%

0% 6%6%

75%

12%0%

25%

82%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




I l d E i CA T ffi R i Ab E t ti b t ith S U O H P i G i


18/55

May 13Slide 18

Inland Empire, CA Traffic Remains Above Expectations, but with Some Unease Over Huge Price Gains




Buyers are becoming disappointed with lack of availablehomes for sale.

Lack of in inventory! Causing appraisal issue all around.

Buyers are aware of multiple offers and rising prices on

many properties. Buyers are in near panic mode trying to not miss the

market. Prices are rising at an alarming rate.

It feels like another bubble is forming.

Appraisers uncomfortable with these huge price jumps.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic remained above agents expectations in May,driven by a heightened sense of urgency as inventory remainslow and prices are rising significantly. Several agents notedsome uneasiness emerging, but buyers dont want to miss out.Our traffic index came in at 63 in May vs. 65 in April (above aneutral 50).

Homes price gains continued unabated, as our price indexincreased to 97 in May from 90 in April.

Price improvement is unlikely to stall in the near-term, as homelistings and the time to sell continue to shrink.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

BuyerTrafficIndex


0102030405060708090

100

Ma

y-11

Ju

n-11

Ju

l-11

Au

g-11

Se

p-11

Oc

t-11

No

v-11

De

c-11

Ja

n-12

Fe

b-12

Ma

r-12

Ap

r-12

Ma

y-12

Ju

n-12

Ju

l-12

Au

g-12

Se

p-12

Oc

t-12

No

v-12

De

c-12

Ja

n-13

Fe

b-13

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-13

HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 66.7 78.1 60.0 90.6 80.0

Jan-13 70.8 83.3 45.5 95.8 70.8

Feb-13 63.6 81.8 59.1 85.0 86.4

Mar-13 71.1 89.5 41.7 76.3 77.8

Apr-13 65.0 90.0 50.0 90.0 80.0

May-13 63.2 97.4 61.1 84.2 92.1

Point Change (1.8) 7.4 11.1 (5.8) 12.1

37%

53%

10%



95%

6% 0%5%

67%

16%

0%

28%

84%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




Jackson ille FL B ers Feeling Better Dont Want to Miss O t on Deals


19/55

May 13Slide 19

Jacksonville, FL Buyers Feeling Better, Dont Want to Miss Out on Deals


(4,582 single-family permits in 2012, 23rd largest market in the country)


People feel it is the right time to buy.

Pent-up demand, stronger economy.

Concern that interest rates may rise.

Stronger consumer confidence.

Appraisals are finally making sense.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic improved further in May, as our traffic indexincreased to 71 from 69 in April, indicating levels aboveagents expectations for this time of year (readings above 50).Agents cited the combination of stronger consumer confidencealong with fear of missing out on low prices and low rates.

Home prices continued to rise, though potentially at a slowerpace, as our home price index came in at 71 vs. 88 in April(still well above a neutral 50).

Lower inventory levels and a shorter time to sell remainsupportive of further home price increases.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

BuyerTrafficIndex


0102030405060708090

100

Ma

y-11

Ju

n-11

Jul-11

Au

g-11

Se

p-11

Oct-11

No

v-11

De

c-11

Ja

n-12

Fe

b-12

Ma

r-12

Ap

r-12

Ma

y-12

Ju

n-12

Jul-12

Au

g-12

Se

p-12

Oct-12

No

v-12

De

c-12

Ja

n-13

Fe

b-13

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-13

HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 56.3 75.0 31.3 62.5 62.5

Jan-13 75.0 75.0 35.7 75.0 62.5

Feb-13 68.8 87.5 43.8 87.5 93.8

Mar-13 66.7 91.7 58.3 83.3 91.7

Apr-13 68.8 87.5 37.5 81.3 78.6

May-13 71.4 71.4 50.0 71.4 71.4

Point Change 2.7 (16.1) 12.5 (9.8) (7.1)

43%

57%

0%



43%

20%14%

57% 60%

29%

0%

20%

57%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

70%




Las Vegas NV Frenzied Buyers Still Searching for Inventory Which May be Starting to Come Back


20/55

May 13Slide 20

Las Vegas, NV Frenzied Buyers Still Searching for Inventory, Which May be Starting to Come Back




Everyone is in a panic that there are no homes to buy.Builders are raising prices, and the investors seem to wantto buy at any price. Looks like 2004 all over again.Protection this time as over-paying has been in CASH fromthe buyers.

Buyer traffic is consistent. The demand is greater than thesupply.

Rising prices/values as each month passes. Shortage ofavailable offerings although short sales, investor flipping andtypical seller offerings are increasing.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic continued at a healthy clip in May, as our trafficindex slipped to 66 from 75 but remained above agentsexpectations (which have increased as of late). Its still allabout inventory, or the lack thereof, as buyers are franticallylooking and worried that they missed the bottom.

Home prices continued to improve in May, as our home priceindex came in at 98 vs. 100 in April.

This month brought signs that inventory may finally be startingto come back to market, as our home listings index dropped to64 from 93, just modestly above a neutral reading of 50.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

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Feb-12

Mar-12

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Jul-12

Aug-12

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13

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Apr-13

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 63.3 93.3 56.7 66.7 73.3

Jan-13 61.9 97.6 57.1 78.6 78.6

Feb-13 60.9 97.8 65.9 75.0 84.1

Mar-13 65.2 97.9 66.7 77.1 85.4

Apr-13 75.0 100.0 57.5 92.5 95.0

May-13 65.9 97.6 73.8 64.3 81.0

Point Change (9.1) (2.4) 16.3 (28.2) (14.0)

41%

50%

9%



95%

5% 0%5%

43% 38%

0%

52%62%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




Los Angeles CA Fear of Missing the Boat is Leading to Multiple Offers on Most Good Properties


21/55

May 13Slide 21

Los Angeles, CA Fear of Missing the Boat is Leading to Multiple Offers on Most Good Properties


(4,921 single-family permits in 2012, 22nd largest market in the country)


Agents hoarding listings like they are their last meal.

Buyers are still facing a shortage of homes for sale in ourarea - rising prices and escalating competition amongbuyers. Most properties sell for more than the list price.

Buyers feel that the interest rates will go up so they shouldbuy soon.

More investors from LA are impacting the prices and lowerend market.

Buyers are tired of being beat out in multiple offers. Sellerswould sell if they had somewhere to go.

Our Take:

Our buyer traffic index improved to 77 in May from 67 in April,the highest level since our survey began in 2005, Agents saidthe strong traffic levels were driven by a rising sense of buyerurgency as rates begin to tick higher and quality listings remainhard to find (with multiple offers common).

Strong home price gains continued through May, as our homeprice index was unchanged at 97.

There is still no respite from inventory shortages, though risinghome prices should begin to encourage more owners to sell.The length of time needed to sell also declined further.

0

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May-

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 68.0 88.0 57.1 93.5 79.2

Jan-13 66.7 83.9 59.5 86.2 77.6

Feb-13 59.3 94.4 48.0 75.0 75.9

Mar-13 66.7 98.0 52.3 80.0 88.0

Apr-13 66.7 96.6 63.5 70.7 81.0

May-13 76.5 97.1 65.0 65.3 83.3

Point Change 9.8 0.6 1.5 (5.4) 2.3

62%

29%

9%



94%

10% 6%6%

50%

22%

0%

40%

72%

0%

20%

40%

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Miami FL Buyers Becoming More Frantic Trying to Compete with Investors for Desirable Homes


22/55

May 13Slide 22

Miami, FL Buyers Becoming More Frantic Trying to Compete with Investors for Desirable Homes


(5,048 single-family permits in 2012, 21st largest market in the country)


People who qualify to buy want to right now as prices aregoing up. But there are not enough properties out there andthey are being bought up by cash buyers, finance deals arehard right now.

Buying frenzy on a diminishing inventory. Cash is king. Rentals are getting expensive and are hard to find in

desirable neighborhoods.

Prices going up frees some owners who are above waterand can sell now.

Buyers see prices rising and inventory decreasing.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic improved in May and exceeded agentsexpectations again, as our traffic index increased to 76 from67. Agents noted strength from both traditional buyers andinvestors, with owner-occupants growing more franticespecially after losing out on multiple bids.

Home prices continued to rebound in May, as our price indexedged up to 94 from 92 in April.

Supply of quality homes for sale remains tight, leading to ashorter time to sell which will likely drive prices higher.However, higher prices should also allow more people to sell.

0

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 55.3 88.2 45.9 85.9 69.2

Jan-13 60.3 92.6 50.0 80.0 78.6

Feb-13 57.6 88.2 48.5 89.7 75.0

Mar-13 69.7 92.1 54.5 87.8 82.9

Apr-13 66.7 92.4 40.0 87.9 89.4

May-13 75.8 93.9 51.6 72.6 87.9

Point Change 9.1 1.5 11.6 (15.3) (1.5)

58%

36%

6%



88%

16%

0%12%

65%

24%

0%

19%

76%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




Minneapolis MN Buyers Gain Motivation as They Watch Prices Continuing to Move Higher


23/55

May 13Slide 23

Minneapolis, MN Buyers Gain Motivation as They Watch Prices Continuing to Move Higher




Pent-up demand and short inventory.

Growing realization that prices are going up.

Higher buying interest is hindered by low inventory.

Values rising, inventory shrinking.

More talk in the media about the housing market gettingbetter and buyers are in competition so gives sellersmotivation to list their properties.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic continued to improve in May, as our traffic indexincreased to 73 from 60 in April (readings above 50 point tobetter than expected traffic levels). Agents noted increasingbuyer confidence and urgency as they see prices rising andinventory continuing to shrink.

Home prices increased again in May, as our home price indexcame in at 89, down slightly from 93 in April but still a verystrong reading (well above a neutral 50).

Inventories and the time needed to sell continued to decline,though rising home prices could give more sellers motivation.

0

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May-

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Jan-

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 39.5 78.6 55.3 88.1 81.0

Jan-13 57.4 83.3 48.6 84.7 81.9

Feb-13 64.3 87.9 42.3 89.3 84.5

Mar-13 52.9 80.6 47.2 69.4 77.8

Apr-13 60.0 92.9 42.9 78.6 92.9

May-13 73.1 88.5 41.7 83.3 88.5

Point Change 13.1 (4.4) (1.2) 4.8 (4.4)

46%

54%

0%



77%

25%

0%

23%

67%

23%

0%8%

77%

0%

20%

40%

60%

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100%




Nashville TN Local Economy Continues to Improve Draws Buyers into the Market


24/55

May 13Slide 24

Nashville, TN Local Economy Continues to Improve, Draws Buyers into the Market




Prices have stabilized, interest rates are low, and buyershave more confidence in their job stability.

Rates are favorable, and buyers have a fear that they wontfind a home with how fast inventories are falling.

People are feeling better about the local economy.

We have people coming into the area looking for jobs. Themarket has been improving and that has helped the demandfor housing around here.

The local economy has been getting better.

Our Take:

Traffic slipped in May, but remained above agentsexpectations, as our buyer traffic index came in at 73 from 81in April. Agents credited a strong local economy, rising pricesand falling inventories for Mays traffic levels.

Prices improved again in May, as our home price index came inat 82 from 73 in April.

Inventories and the time to sell both fell in May. Given thestrong demand environment, we would expect prices tocontinue to improve in the coming months.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 61.1 50.0 55.6 66.7 66.7

Jan-13 61.1 77.8 68.8 66.7 72.2

Feb-13 83.3 83.3 50.0 70.8 83.3

Mar-13 75.0 70.8 70.8 91.7 83.3

Apr-13 80.8 73.1 65.4 53.8 88.5

May-13 72.7 81.8 68.2 72.7 86.4

Point Change (8.0) 8.7 2.8 18.9 (2.1)

45%

55%

0%



64%

0% 0%

36%

64%

27%

0%

36%

73%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%




New York-Northern NJ Rising Interest Rates Motivate Buyers to Act Now


25/55

May 13Slide 25

New York-Northern NJ Rising Interest Rates Motivate Buyers to Act Now




Demand continues to improve and with very lowinventories, buyers are willing to place multiple offers onlistings.

We have some buyers wanting to get in before interest

rates start to rise, as they are somewhat concerned. There are fewer homes on the market. We have more

multiple bids and buyers are anticipating higher interestrates.

Buyers in the area feel more and more confident that theNY/NJ market has finally turned.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic bounced back in May, coming in above agentsexpectations. Our traffic index came in at 60 from 51 in April.Agents suggested that the threat of higher interest rates drewbuyers into market, while other had more confidence about thelocal housing market.

Home prices increased further in May, as our price indeximproved to 70 from 66 from in April.

Inventories and the time to sell fell again in May. As demandremains solid we would expect to this lead to higher prices inthe coming months.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 32.6 41.5 54.9 70.2 40.4

Jan-13 45.8 47.9 53.8 69.8 52.1

Feb-13 57.5 59.6 45.5 64.4 62.5

Mar-13 62.3 68.6 48.9 68.9 66.0

Apr-13 51.0 66.3 51.1 64.4 72.1

May-13 60.4 69.8 57.1 65.1 72.6

Point Change 9.4 3.5 6.1 0.7 0.5

40%

41%

19%



51%

6% 9%

38%

73%

36%

11%20%

55%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%




Orlando FL Low Inventories Drive Buyers to Market on Fears of Missing Out


26/55

May 13Slide 26

Orlando, FL Low Inventories Drive Buyers to Market on Fears of Missing Out




Inventory keeps falling which causes some buyers to getdiscouraged. For others, it is a strong motivator to go outand buy before its too late.

The urgency remains very strong, though the rate of price

increases is still catching some buyers off guard. Everything is selling fast. An investor bought a short sale 5

days after it was placed on the market.

Everyone wants to beat the rising prices. We had a housevalued at $240, asking $250 and offered at $258 and thebuyer didnt get it.

Our Take:

Traffic improved sharply in May and exceeded expectations, asour traffic index increased to 62 from 34 in April. Agentssuggested that low inventories continued to ignite urgency, asbuyers indicate they do not want to miss potentialopportunities.

Home prices continued to improve in May, as our home priceindex increased to 91 from 81 in April.

Our home listings and time to sell indexes pointed to furtherdeclines in both metrics in May. We view each of these as apositive indicator for future pricing trends.

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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 35.7 80.0 40.0 86.7 83.3

Jan-13 34.6 73.1 53.8 73.1 69.2

Feb-13 47.1 73.5 47.1 82.4 79.4

Mar-13 52.9 82.4 38.2 67.6 67.6

Apr-13 34.4 81.3 50.0 84.4 75.0

May-13 61.8 91.2 58.8 79.4 90.6

Point Change 27.4 9.9 8.8 (5.0) 15.6

47%

29%

24%



82%

6% 0%

18%

71%

19%

0%

24%

81%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




Philadelphia PA-Southern NJ Buyers Hope to Beat Rising Interest Rates


27/55

May 13Slide 27

Philadelphia, PA Southern NJ Buyers Hope to Beat Rising Interest Rates




Buyers are willing to be flexible on price. Our listings arereceiving more attention and buyers are willing to bidhigher.

Buyers want to move forward because they are concernedabout missing out particularly first time homebuyers. Pricesare rising and now so are interest rates.

Low inventory and low prices with a fear of rising interestrates is pushing pent up demand off the curb!

Demand is better, but we still have plenty of first-time homebuyers getting their applications rejected.

Our Take:

Traffic exceeded expectations again in May, though levels fellslightly. Our traffic index came in at 57 from 61 in April. Agentsindicated that buyers were looking to beat rising interest ratesand capitalize on the recovery, though lending remains thoughfor first-time homebuyers.

Prices increased further in May, as our home price index camein at 66 from 64 in April.

Agents pointed to very broad declines in inventories in May,while the time to sell fell further. As a result, we would expectprices in the region to continue to move higher.

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Jan-13

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Dec-12 54.5 47.7 57.9 77.3 63.6

Jan-13 63.9 47.2 70.0 86.1 63.9

Feb-13 63.0 54.3 50.0 77.3 69.6

Mar-13 57.1 67.9 50.0 73.1 88.5

Apr-13 61.1 63.9 50.0 52.9 77.8

May-13 56.8 65.9 50.0 67.5 75.0

Point Change (4.3) 2.0 0.0 14.6 (2.8)

32%

50%

18%



32%

11% 5%

68%79%

40%

0%11%

55%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




Phoenix, AZ Confidence is Strong, Rising Prices Encourage Buyers to Enter Market


28/55

May 13Slide 28

Phoenix, AZ Confidence is Strong, Rising Prices Encourage Buyers to Enter Market


(11,859 single-family building permits in 2012, 3rd largest market in the country)


The buyers are out there, but theyre still stymied by lowerthan normal inventories.

If a home is priced well, well get multiple offers within 5days or less.

Renters are hoping they can find something to buy beforetheir leases are up.

Buyers recognize that prices are rising and that it is a goodtime to buy. However, there is still a shortage of qualityinventory in certain price ranges.

Our Take:

Traffic came in just above agents expectations in May, as ourindex came in at 56 from 58 in April. Agents noted demandwas driven by better confidence in housing and rising rentalrates, which continues to push buyers into the for-sale market,though higher inventories could work to further improve traffic.

Home prices continued to improve in May, as our home priceindex came in at 92 from 93 in April.

Inventories fell further in May, as did the time needed to sell.We view these both as positive indicators for future pricingtrends.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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credit suisse monthly survey of real estate agents results may 2013

Documents