credit suisse monthly survey of real estate agents results june 2013

CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES (USA) LLC

0102030405060708090

100

Jun-1

1

Jul-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

Nov-

11

Dec-

11

Jan-1

2

Feb-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-

12

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

Nov-

12

Dec-

12

Jan-1

3

Feb-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-

13

Jun-1

3

Ho

me P

rice In

dex

50 - Higher than Prior Month

Home prices continued to increase through June, as sellers capitalize on healthy demand and a lack of competing listings

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND

THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/ researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Disclosure:

Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that

could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

July 9, 2013

Daniel Oppenheim, CFA

Homebuilding & Building Products

212-325-5726

[email protected]

Michael Dahl

212-325-5882

[email protected]

William Alexis

212-538-3992

[email protected]

Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents June 2013

Source: Credit Suisse

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun-1

1

Jul-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

Nov-

11

Dec-

11

Jan-1

2

Feb-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-

12

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

Nov-

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Dec-

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Jan-1

3

Feb-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

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May-

13

Jun-1

3

Bu

yer

Tra

ffic

In

dex

50 - Exceeds Expectations

Our traffic index moderated, but remains at healthy levels as agents note urgency upon initial rise in rates

June 13 Slide 2

June Survey of Real Estate Agents:

Rising Rates Scare Buyers...Into Acting; Inventory Remains Lim iting

Traffic remains healthy in the face of rising mortgage rates, continuing to push prices higher: While there were spotty reports of some buyers being turned off by the sharp increase in mortgage rates, the majority of agents comments across markets said the move is driving a heightened sense of urgency among buyers, who fear missing out if

they wait. More often, comments in the markets with lower traffic readings pointed to frustrations over an insufficient

supply of quality listings, as well as agents having higher expectations (so that levels which would have warranted a

more than expected response several months ago is now a meets expectations). This is leading to higher prices, though we would expect to see a moderation in demand and home prices if rates rise too much further in the near term.

Prices march higher; index hits another new high: Our home price index increased to 87.3 in June from 84.9 in May, with rising prices noted in all 40 markets and an index of 80 or higher in 35 of the 40 markets. This continues to

point to broad price appreciation, though we still note further increases in our index will be difficult to achieve from these

high levels. Markets in California and Florida led the pack along with Vegas, Phoenix, Houston, and Seattle.

Modest decline in our traffic index not bad, all things considered: Our buyer traffic index edged down to 60.5 in June from 63.4 in May, remaining at levels indicative of traffic exceeding agents expectations for this time of year. Only seeing a slight decline is encouraging to us, given how quickly mortgage rates moved up during the month. Atlanta, New

York Metro Area, Orlando, Washington D.C., and Detroit were among the weakest markets, while San Diego, Inland

Empire, Houston and Dallas were the strongest.

Tight supplies persist, contributing to a shorter time needed to sell: Our home listings index fell to 61.8 in June from 67.1 in May, pointing to overall inventory levels continuing to remain tight, though more markets showed signs of

sellers beginning to emerge. Meanwhile, the time needed to sell continued to trend lower, as our index came in at 75.9

vs. 81.1 in May. This is a positive for pricing, though increasing inventory levels could temper the pace of recent gains.

Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 59.0 74.6 52.4 74.7 71.5

Feb-13 65.1 79.3 51.5 72.7 75.4

Mar-13 66.1 83.7 53.0 71.7 80.8

Apr-13 64.4 84.8 52.9 73.7 81.0

May-13 63.4 84.9 54.1 67.1 81.1

Jun-13 60.5 87.3 54.1 61.8 75.9

Point Change (2.9) 2.4 0.1 (5.3) (5.2)

39%

43%

18%

Traffic Levels Versus Expectations

More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected

76%

12% 9%

22%

68%

30%

2%

20%

61%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell

How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...

Increased Remained the same Decreased

Source: Credit Suisse

June 13 Slide 3

Table of Contents

Key Housing Markets: Key Housing Markets Continued:

4 Atlanta, Georgia 26 Orlando, Florida

5 Austin, Texas 27 Philadelphia-Southern New Jersey

6 Baltimore, Maryland 28 Phoenix, Arizona

7 Boston, Massachusetts 29 Portland, Oregon

8 Charleston, South Carolina 30 Raleigh, North Carolina

9 Charlotte, North Carolina 31 Richmond, Virginia

10 Chicago, Illinois 32 Sacramento, California

11 Cincinnati, Ohio 33 San Antonio, Texas

12 Columbus, Ohio 34 San Diego, California

13 Dallas, Texas 35 San Francisco, California

14 Denver, Colorado 36 Sarasota, Florida

15 Detroit, Michigan 37 Seattle, Washington

16 Fort Myers, Florida 38 St. Louis, Missouri

17 Houston, Texas 39 Tampa, Florida

18 Inland Empire (Riverside-San Bernardino), California 40 Tucson, Arizona

19 Jacksonville, Florida 41 Virginia Beach, Virginia

20 Las Vegas, Nevada 42 Washington, D.C.

21 Los Angeles, California 43 Wilmington, North Carolina

22 Miami, Florida Appendix:

23 Minneapolis, Minnesota 45 Historical Trends by Market

24 Nashville, Tennessee 50 Agent Recommendations

25 New York-Northern New Jersey 52 Survey Methodology

June 13 Slide 4

Atlanta, GA Traffic Below Expectations as Frustrated Buyers Take a Summer Break

Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau

(9,146 single-family building permits in 2012, 5th largest market in the country)

Comments from Real Estate Agents:

Buyers are frustrated due to the shortage of homes for sale on the market.

Fewer buyers. Buyers do not have a sense of urgency..

Low inventory levels/purchase options.

In many areas of the Atlanta market, there are many more buyers than there are properties for sale. I think that rising

interest rates are also getting many buyers who have been

on the fence to get more motivated to buy sooner, rather than later.

Rates edging up has some buyers jumping off the fence.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic fell in June and dipped below agents expectations, as our index fell to 43 from 53 (below a neutral

50). Most agents cited low supply, whether they noted

stronger or weaker trends. Those who said traffic weakened

said buyers have become frustrated and are taking a break,

while others said the lack of supply is creating urgency.

Home prices increased again, as our price index came in at 80 vs. 93 in May, still well above a neutral 50.

Inventory levels fell, but there are signs that sellers are becoming more willing and able to sell at current levels.

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Feb

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Ma

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Jun-1

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Jan-1

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3

Apr-

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Tra

ffic

In

dex


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Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Ho

me P

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nd

ex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 45.5 36.4 45.5 90.9 59.1

Feb-13 73.1 84.6 42.9 92.9 76.9

Mar-13 63.6 83.3 50.0 75.0 87.5

Apr-13 53.6 82.1 46.4 57.1 71.4

May-13 53.1 93.3 43.3 65.6 81.3

Jun-13 42.9 80.0 35.7 56.7 70.0

Point Change (10.3) (13.3) (7.6) (9.0) (11.3)

21%

43%

36%



67%

29%

13%

27%

71%

33%

7%0%

53%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%




June 13 Slide 5

Austin, TX Traffic Dips but Remains at Solid Levels, Supported by a Healthy Local Economy


(7,970 single-family permits in 2012, 7th largest market in the country)


It's all about interest rates and diminishing supply.

Builders prices have risen too high and too fast, so this housing boom is leaving re-sales as our only avenue.

A little more inventory is creeping on the market.

We're on a roll. While there is no price bubble, our housing market is strong and solid. Qualified buyers rule. Because of

multiple offers, we are asked to provide proof of funding not only for the mortgage, but also for the down payment to

give the offer more credibility. Builders are still blowing

through any inventory left.

Our Take:

Traffic appeared to fall seasonally in June, but remained above agents expectations. Our traffic index fell to 63 from 81 in May, still above a neutral 50. Continued job growth, rising

rates, and tight inventory levels were all cited as primary

drivers.

Home prices continued to march higher, as our home price index came in at a still-strong 86 vs. 100 in May.

Low inventory levels and a shorter time to sell continue to point to rising prices in the months ahead, though more sellers will

likely start to emerge.

0

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Jan-1

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Jun-1

3

Bu

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Tra

ffic

In

dex


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100

Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 57.1 82.1 57.1 64.3 75.0

Feb-13 76.7 93.3 66.7 85.7 93.3

Mar-13 76.7 96.7 63.3 63.3 93.3

Apr-13 81.8 95.8 69.2 76.9 92.3

May-13 80.8 100.0 63.6 75.0 87.5

Jun-13 63.3 85.7 65.4 60.7 76.7

Point Change (17.4) (14.3) 1.7 (14.3) (10.8)

40%

47%

13%



71%

0%7%

29%

69%

33%

0%

31%

60%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%




June 13 Slide 6

Baltimore, MD Demand Remains at Tepid Levels; Economic and Affordability Concerns Weigh




Buyers think that prices have risen more than they have and that interest rates may not be as good as they were several

months ago.

Severe lack of inventory.

Interest rates starting to go up; this has scared buyers into making decisions.

Buyers are still out there looking at new inventory.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic remained weaker than expected in June, as our traffic index fell to 30 from 39 in May, below a neutral 50.

Agents responses were similar to last months, centering around the relatively weak local economy and employment

conditions along with the recent increase in prices and rates.

Home prices increased again despite the weaker traffic, as our price index increased to 100 from 83. However, better demand

will likely be needed to sustain these increases.

Inventory levels flattened out in June, while the time needed to sell decreased.

0

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-12

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Apr-

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Ma

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Jun-1

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Jul-1

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Jan-1

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Tra

ffic

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 33.3 55.6 62.5 87.5 72.2

Feb-13 66.7 58.3 50.0 91.7 91.7

Mar-13 61.1 80.0 55.6 75.0 65.0

Apr-13 25.0 100.0 50.0 100.0 87.5

May-13 38.9 83.3 43.8 66.7 88.9

Jun-13 30.0 100.0 60.0 50.0 70.0

Point Change (8.9) 16.7 16.3 (16.7) (18.9)

20%

20%60%



100%

0%

20%

0%

80%

20%

0%

20%

60%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%




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100

Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

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1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

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2

Apr-

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2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

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No

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June 13 Slide 7

Boston, MA Buyer Urgency On the Rise Alongside Higher Rates




A slight rise in interest rates helped fuel an already active market.

More inventory has come on the market allowing buyers something to buy.

Buyers are jumping in to buy because they are hearing interest rates are going up.

Development of the waterfront district is spurring strong trends in South Boston.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic remained at similar, solid levels in June vs. May, as our traffic index edged up to 68 from 67 (above a neutral

reading of 50). Agents cited increased buyer urgency as

mortgage rates began to increase, while additional inventory in

some areas has provided more options.

Home prices increased broadly in June, as our price index came in at 93 vs. 92, with almost all agents noting higher

prices.

Lower inventory levels and a shorter time to sell are positive leading indicators for near-term home price trends.

0

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30

40

50

60

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1

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Sep-1

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Jan-1

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Feb

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Apr-

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Jun-1

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Jul-

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No

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2

Jan-1

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3

Apr-

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3

Jun-1

3

Bu

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Tra

ffic

In

dex


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Jun-1

1

Jul-

11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-

12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

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12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

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3

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 61.1 80.6 52.8 76.3 81.6

Feb-13 73.3 86.7 53.6 73.3 76.7

Mar-13 80.8 88.5 65.4 60.7 82.1

Apr-13 75.0 91.7 60.0 79.2 75.0

May-13 66.7 91.7 59.1 70.8 91.7

Jun-13 67.9 92.9 53.6 67.9 82.1

Point Change 1.2 1.2 (5.5) (3.0) (9.5)

43%

50%

7%



86%

7% 7%14%

79%

21%

0%14%

71%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




June 13 Slide 8

Charleston, SC Demand Treads Water at the Start of Summer; Prices Continue to Rise




Sales had been increasing the last several months and now mid-June starting to slow down again.

I do not see an increase in buyers. I have no REO buyers, just two that are interested in buying. Buyers are wishy-

washy just like last year is my experience.

Prices seem to be rising along with mortgage rates.

Appraisers are doing better.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic slipped in June vs. May, though levels still met agents expectations for this time of year. Our traffic index registered a neutral 50, down from 64 in May. Agents noted a

sequential slowing and suggested buyers remain a bit hesitant

as rates and prices move higher.

Our home price index increased to 92 from 86 in May, indicating prices continued to rise in June.

Inventory levels declined again, while it also took less time to sell a home both are positive indicators for home prices.

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ic In

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x


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Jun-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

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No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

r-1

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Ap

r-1

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Ma

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Ju

n-1

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Ju

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 25.0 75.0 50.0 25.0 62.5

Feb-13 25.0 66.7 50.0 50.0 37.5

Mar-13 57.1 85.7 50.0 57.1 78.6

Apr-13 33.3 66.7 50.0 66.7 66.7

May-13 64.3 85.7 50.0 64.3 78.6

Jun-13 50.0 91.7 58.3 66.7 58.3

Point Change (14.3) 6.0 8.3 2.4 (20.2)

34%

33%

33%



83%

17% 17%17%

50% 50%

0%

33% 33%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




June 13 Slide 9

Charlotte, NC More Buyers Get Off the Fence as They Fear Missing the Boat




Seems like the market has leveled off a bit since the spring flurry. Mortgage rates moved up as anticipated.

Rising interest rates are getting buyers off the fence, but lack of inventory is frustrating in the better school districts.

Rising interest rates have spurred buyers to search for housing.

Summer is always a bit slower but with the low inventory, buyers are regularly checking the market for their dream

home.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic levels remained healthy in June, as our traffic index came in at 60 vs. 67 in May, still indicating levels above

agents expectations. Agents suggested the combination of low inventory levels and rising mortgage rates is fueling buyer

urgency.

Home prices increased again in June, as our home price index increased to 90 from 88 in May.

Inventory levels and the time to sell trends remained favorable in June, pointing to higher home prices in the months ahead.

0102030405060708090

100

Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Bu

yer

Tra

ffic

In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

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Ma

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Jun-1

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 75.0 85.0 54.5 86.4 75.0

Feb-13 86.4 81.8 45.5 72.7 63.6

Mar-13 90.9 100.0 63.6 72.7 95.0

Apr-13 65.4 83.3 46.2 46.2 73.1

May-13 66.7 87.5 66.7 62.5 91.7

Jun-13 60.0 90.0 70.0 65.0 70.0

Point Change (6.7) 2.5 3.3 2.5 (21.7)

30%

60%

10%



80%

0%10%

20%

60%

40%

0%

40%50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




June 13 Slide 10

Chicago, IL Pent-Up Demand Emerging as Home Prices and Mortgage Rates Increase




Has slowed down a bit from hot spring, but this is typical for end-of-school-year lull.

Increased comfort; market shifting so clients want to beat the increasing prices; still great interest rates.

The rise in interest rates is finally making the buyers buy, plus many people who sold 5 years ago short are now back

in the market.

No fresh inventory...it's the same junk that's been on the market for months! Higher rates spooked fence sitters...now

they're waiting for rates to go back down.

Our Take:

Traffic remained at solid levels above agents expectations in June, as our traffic index edged down to 64 from 68 but

remained above a neutral 50. Agents noted a growing sense of

urgency among buyers following the rise in prices and now

rates, though there is still a lack of quality inventory holding the

market back.

Home prices continued to recover in June, as our home price index was essentially unchanged at 80 vs. 81 in May.

Lower inventory levels and a shorter time to sell should continue to support higher prices in the coming months.

0

10

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30

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Jun-1

1

Jul-1

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1

Sep-1

1

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-12

Ma

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2

Apr-

12

Ma

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2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

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No

v-1

2

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c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

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Jun-1

3

Bu

yer

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ffic

In

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

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Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

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1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

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2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

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Jun-1

3

Ho

me P

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 60.6 62.0 50.0 78.0 59.2

Feb-13 68.3 60.9 57.4 64.1 68.8

Mar-13 63.5 76.4 51.6 77.8 75.0

Apr-13 59.6 70.0 41.7 61.5 73.1

May-13 68.3 81.3 50.0 68.8 77.4

Jun-13 64.0 80.0 45.2 76.0 79.2

Point Change (4.3) (1.3) (4.8) 7.3 1.7

44%

40%

16%



68%

19%8%

24%

71%

25%

8% 10%

67%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%




June 13 Slide 11

Cincinnati, OH Price Gains Appear to Moderate as Higher Rates Pressure Traffic




Traffic is still pretty good; but buyers are pausing before making a move due to interest rate hikes. It's not that mid

4's are so high; it's how quickly it happened.

Improved confidence in the market.

Buyers are on vacation.

Baby boomers are out.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic levels declined in June and fell short of agents expectations for this time of year, as our index fell to 33 from

50 in May (below a neutral reading of 50). Agents cited a

pause in buying decisions given the sharpness of the recent

move higher in rates.

Home prices increased, though our reading dipped sharply to 58 in June from 79 in May, suggesting the gains were not as

broad-based as in recent months.

Inventory levels continued to trend lower, though our time to sell index fell closer to a neutral level.

0102030405060708090

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Jun-1

1

Jul-

11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-

12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Bu

yer

Tra

ffic

In

dex


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jun-1

1

Jul-

11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-

12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

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No

v-1

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Jan-1

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Feb

-13

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3

Apr-

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 71.4 57.1 42.9 92.9 71.4

Feb-13 70.0 60.0 50.0 60.0 80.0

Mar-13 66.7 58.3 58.3 83.3 83.3

Apr-13 50.0 81.3 50.0 81.3 81.3

May-13 50.0 78.6 57.1 57.1 71.4

Jun-13 33.3 58.3 50.0 66.7 58.3

Point Change (16.7) (20.2) (7.1) 9.5 (13.1)

0%

67%

33%



33%

17%

33%

50%

67%

17%17% 17%

50%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%




June 13 Slide 12

Columbus, OH Sellers Take Advantage of Increased Buyer Urgency and Limited Competition




Low inventory has buyers scrambling.

Lack of inventory offers little choice. Some buyers are holding off until the market opens up a little more.

Increased buyer confidence, fear of increasing interest rates, and lower levels of inventory are leading to buyer

competition.

Appraisers seem to be a bit behind the price curve.

Our Take:

Our buyer traffic index jumped to 70 in June from 50 in May, pointing to better traffic levels, ahead of agents expectations for this time of year (a reading of 50). While the lack of

inventory is still somewhat limiting, agents said buyers are

scrambling to find homes and want to get in before mortgage rates increase much further.

Every agent surveyed pointed to higher home prices over the past 30 days, as our price index increased to 100 from 83.

Inventory levels increased again, though, which could slow price gains.

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Oct-

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x


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

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g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

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2

Ju

n-1

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g-1

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Oct-

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v-1

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 50.0 75.0 50.0 66.7 83.3

Feb-13 57.1 68.8 42.9 68.8 87.5

Mar-13 40.0 60.0 40.0 80.0 90.0

Apr-13 68.8 78.6 50.0 78.6 92.9

May-13 50.0 83.3 41.7 41.7 75.0

Jun-13 70.0 100.0 40.0 40.0 90.0

Point Change 20.0 16.7 (1.7) (1.7) 15.0

60%20%

20%



100%

20%

0%0%

80%

20%

0% 0%

80%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%




June 13 Slide 13

Dallas, TX Buyers Continue to Clamor for Listings and Sellers are Capitalizing on the Strong Demand


(17,821 single-family permits in 2012, 2nd largest market in the country)


Buyers and sellers are ready and thinking this is a great time to buy or sell. They are uncertain how long the window

will last and want to capitalize on the current market.

More buyers, jobs, confidence and the fear that rates will go up.

Rising interest rates, and fast growing population base!

Buyers are coming out of foreclosure ready to buy again.

Lack of renovated housing in higher price ranges.

Inventory is low. New home builders need to start building ASAP.

Our Take:

Our buyer traffic index bounced back a bit in June after declining in April and May, pointing to traffic levels remaining

well above expectations. Our index improved to 70 from 65.

Agents noted increased confidence from both buyers and

sellers, along with healthy local job growth and a desire to lock

in current prices and rates.

Agents continued to point to broad price gains, as our price index came in at 87 in June vs. 90 in May.

Rising home prices seem to finally be encouraging more sellers, as our home listings index fell closer to a neutral level.

0102030405060708090

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Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Bu

yer

Tra

ffic

In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

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me P

rice I

nd

ex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 56.3 81.3 50.0 75.0 65.6

Feb-13 70.8 79.2 50.0 75.0 79.2

Mar-13 91.7 83.3 54.5 70.8 95.8

Apr-13 80.0 96.7 67.9 78.6 90.0

May-13 65.0 90.0 66.7 65.0 100.0

Jun-13 70.0 86.7 53.3 56.7 93.3

Point Change 5.0 (3.3) (13.3) (8.3) (6.7)

46%

47%

7%



73%

13%7%

27%

67%

0%0%

20%

93%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




June 13 Slide 14

Denver, CO More Inventory Coming to Market; Potential to Slow Price Appreciation in Coming Months




Inventory is finally up a little, but no slowdown in bidding wars on the low end.

We have been working the price range $150,000 to $350,000 the past 30 days. Homes are under contract in

days with multiple offers. It is a combination of pent up

demand and low interest rates.

Rates are creeping up and all those that were on the fence are now in the mood!

New home communities are popping up, but there is a lack of innovation and I'm seeing many buyers choose resale.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic continued to exceed agents expectations, as our traffic index slipped to 64 from 69 but remains above a neutral

50. Agents noted more inventory coming to market to meet the

healthy demand levels, while buyers continue to look to lock in

deals before prices and rates increase too much.

Home prices increased again, as our home price index was little changed at a strong 87 in June vs. 86 in May.

Inventory increased in June, the first increase seen in our survey in two years. A further increase in inventory would likely

slow the pace of price appreciation over the coming months.

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50

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Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

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No

v-1

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c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

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Ma

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2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

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Ma

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3

Jun-1

3

Bu

yer

Tra

ffic

In

dex


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Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

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3

Jun-1

3

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nd

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 69.6 82.1 51.9 76.8 76.8

Feb-13 73.9 87.5 52.2 84.8 93.8

Mar-13 70.8 89.6 54.5 69.6 76.1

Apr-13 75.0 93.8 65.0 77.1 79.2

May-13 68.8 85.7 60.9 56.5 82.6

Jun-13 63.2 86.8 44.1 28.9 76.3

Point Change (5.6) 1.1 (16.8) (27.6) (6.3)

42%

42%

16%



79%

18%5%

16%

76%

37%

5% 6%

58%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




June 13 Slide 15

Detroit, MI Buyers Still Active in their Search, though Some Pull Back due to Lack of Inventory




The shortage of inventory is frustrating buyers . There are fewer parties interested right now.

Lower re-sale inventory is causing some buyers to shift into the new home market.

Higher home prices and rising mortgage rates have spurred buyers into action.

Inventories continue to fall while prices rise. Many buyers feel theyve missed the boat and want to get in the game before they also miss out on low interest rates.

Our Take:

Traffic edged lower again in June, but levels still came in and met agents expectations, as our traffic index came in at 48 from 54 in May. Agents indicated that while some buyers were

upset with the lack of inventory, others were motivated by

higher prices and fears over rising interest rates.

Home prices continued to move higher, as our home price index came in at 90 from 88 in May.

Inventories continued to decline, though agents indicated more sellers are taking advantage of rising prices. Meanwhile, the

time to sell fell further, a positive for future pricing.

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30

40

50

60

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80

Jun-1

1

Jul-

11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

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No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

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2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-

12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Bu

yer

Tra

ffic

In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jun-1

1

Jul-

11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-

12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

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Ma

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3

Jun-1

3

Ho

me P

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nd

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 40.0 66.7 60.7 86.7 63.3

Feb-13 58.3 86.1 55.6 75.0 79.4

Mar-13 67.5 85.0 55.3 72.5 84.2

Apr-13 57.1 89.3 57.7 78.6 82.1

May-13 53.8 87.5 45.5 83.3 83.3

Jun-13 47.5 90.0 50.0 60.0 73.7

Point Change (6.3) 2.5 4.5 (23.3) (9.6)

25%

45%

30%



80%

16% 11%20%

68%

32%

0%

16%

58%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




June 13 Slide 16

Ft. Myers, FL Low Inventory Continues to Motivate Buyers




Buyers are watching the market and see that prices are rising while inventories are falling. They want to get in on the

action.

Buyers are still active, even entering our slow season. The lack of inventory and steadily rising prices are making

multiple offers common.

The movement in interest rates is driving buyers into the market. They dont want to miss out.

Buyers are showing no quit this year. They are committed to securing a property.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic exceeded agents expectations again in June, as our index came in at 60 from 58 in May. Agents indicated that

low inventories, rising prices, and concerns over higher rates

all drew buyers into the market.

Home prices continued to improve in June, as our home price index increase to 83 from 75 in May (above a neutral reading

of 50).

We would expect prices to continue to improve, as our home listings index came in at 87 from 79 in May, pointing to fewer

listings, a positive for future pricing.

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Ap

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Ma

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Ju

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Au

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Se

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Oct-

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No

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De

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Ja

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Fe

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Ma

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x


0102030405060708090

100

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

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3

Ap

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Ho

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 47.4 85.0 40.0 72.5 77.5

Feb-13 50.0 75.0 38.9 83.3 66.7

Mar-13 37.5 77.3 45.5 72.7 63.6

Apr-13 53.3 78.6 42.9 82.1 82.1

May-13 58.3 75.0 41.7 79.2 83.3

Jun-13 60.0 83.3 43.3 86.7 76.7

Point Change 1.7 8.3 1.7 7.5 (6.7)

54%

13%

33%



67%

27%

7%

33%

60%

33%

0%

13%

60%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%




June 13 Slide 17

Houston, TX Improving Local Economy Draws More Newcomers, Helps Keep Traffic Strong in June


(28,568 single-family permits in 2012, largest market in the country)


An improving economy, corporate relocations, and higher interest rates are helping to keep traffic in the area strong.

All kinds of buyers are getting off the fence because of rising prices and interest rates.

There is a shortage of homes for sale. Buyers recognize this and want to try and beat the crowd.

Buyers see conditions improving and are eager to get their hands on some property. Multiple offers on homes are

common.

Relocation traffic has picked up a great deal.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic dipped slightly in June, as our traffic index came in at 71 from 78 in May, though levels still beat expectations.

Agents indicated that the improving local economy continues

to attract newcomers, while also making buyers increasingly

confident in placing multiple offers on homes.

Agents again pointed to higher prices in June, as our price index came in at 92 from 97 in May, above a reading of 50.

Inventories and the time to sell both exhibited broad declines in June, suggesting that pricing will continue to improve in the

coming months (declines are a positive for future pricing).

0102030405060708090

100

Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Bu

yer

Tra

ffic

In

dex


0102030405060708090

100

Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Ho

me P

rice I

nd

ex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 61.9 83.3 45.2 76.2 87.5

Feb-13 77.8 81.6 50.0 78.9 77.8

Mar-13 62.5 79.2 45.8 92.3 83.3

Apr-13 91.7 86.8 47.4 78.9 89.5

May-13 77.8 97.2 62.5 91.2 88.2

Jun-13 71.4 92.3 66.7 88.5 96.2

Point Change (6.3) (4.9) 4.2 (2.7) 7.9

57%29%

14%



85%

8%0%

15%

50%

8%0%

42%

92%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




June 13 Slide 18

Inland Empire, CA Traffic Improves as Low Inventories and Favorable Affordability Motivate Buyers




Due to a shortage of listings, prices are going up. Buyers are worried they will soon get priced out of the market.

Every month the story is the same. Inventory is low and buyers want to get in before it is too late.

Buyers realize that interest rates are still low and prices are still affordable. Inventory is extremely tight though and this

makes it tough for buyers to capitalize on opportunities.

Nearly half of my buyers are all cash.

It can still be tough to get buyers to the finish line because appraisals can still be an issue.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic was higher in June, as our traffic index increased to 75 from 63 in May, pointing to better than expected traffic.

Agents credited low inventories and affordability for the

positive effect on traffic, as buyers were said to not want to

miss out on deals.

Home prices continue to move even higher in June, as our home price index increased to 100 from 97 in May.

We expect prices to continue to increase, as our home listings and time to sell indexes pointed to declines in both metrics.

These declines are positive indicators for future pricing.

0

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1

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Sep-1

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Jan-1

2

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-12

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2

Apr-

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Ma

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Jun-1

2

Jul-1

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Sep-1

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Oct-

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No

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Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

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3

Apr-

13

Ma

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3

Jun-1

3

Bu

yer

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ffic

In

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Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

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3

Jun-1

3

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 70.8 83.3 45.5 95.8 70.8

Feb-13 63.6 81.8 59.1 85.0 86.4

Mar-13 71.1 89.5 41.7 76.3 77.8

Apr-13 65.0 90.0 50.0 90.0 80.0

May-13 63.2 97.4 61.1 84.2 92.1

Jun-13 75.0 100.0 45.8 87.5 95.8

Point Change 11.8 2.6 (15.3) 3.3 3.7

59%

33%

8%



100%

25%

0%0%

58%

8%0%

17%

92%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%




June 13 Slide 19

Jacksonville, FL Traffic Lower but Commentary Points to Continued Strength in June


(4,582 single-family permits in 2012, 23rd largest market in the country)


Buyers want to take advantage of low interest rates now before both home prices and rates jump too high.

Traffic is still healthy because buyers are anticipating an increase in interest rates.

Large investors remain active in the marketplace.

There is a lot of traffic, but not a lot of listings. Some buyers want in before rates move too high, while many sellers have

their hands tied because their homes are underwater.

Weve seen slightly better traffic because of the move in rates.

Our Take:

Our buyer traffic index fell to 55 from 71 in May, with levels still meeting expectations. However, commentary remained very

positive and we think the lower reading is a result of agents higher expectations. Agents highlighted continued demand

from investors and traditional buyers, who were driven by

lower inventories, higher prices and rates.

Home prices continued to increase in June, as our home price index came in at 75 from 71 in May.

Inventory was flat in June following months of declines, which suggests pressures in the market may soon begin to ease.

0

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Sep-1

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Jun-1

1

Jul-

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Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

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11

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v-1

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c-1

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Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

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2

Jul-

12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

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No

v-1

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c-1

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Feb

-13

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r-1

3

Apr-

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 75.0 75.0 35.7 75.0 62.5

Feb-13 68.8 87.5 43.8 87.5 93.8

Mar-13 66.7 91.7 58.3 83.3 91.7

Apr-13 68.8 87.5 37.5 81.3 78.6

May-13 71.4 71.4 50.0 71.4 71.4

Jun-13 55.0 75.0 45.0 50.0 75.0

Point Change (16.4) 3.6 (5.0) (21.4) 3.6

20%

70%

10%



50%

30%

10%

50% 50%

30%

0%

20%

60%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%




June 13 Slide 20

Las Vegas, NV Investors Dominate, Helping Keep Inventory Low, but Price out Traditional Buyers




Investment groups are still buying up the lower priced properties in bulk, helping to maintain the shortage of homes

for sale for traditional buyers.

Some buyers are starting to panic over higher rates. Many think 4.5% is too high how quickly we forget.

Buyers are feeling more confident about the housing market. Add in higher prices and rates and buyers are faster

to act.

Some of my buyers are frustrated with the lack of inventory and swiftly rising prices.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic fell slightly in June, coming in at 61 from 66 in May, though agents indicated levels still came in above

expectations. The lack of inventory remains the headline story,

as it draws some buyers to the market, while others prefer

more of a selection. Investors still remain very active.

Home prices continued to rise, as our home price index came in at 100 from 98 in May. Our price index has remained above

90 for six consecutive months.

Inventories fell further in May, as did the time to sell. These are both positive indicators for future pricing trends.

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Jun-1

1

Ju

l-1

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g-1

1

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p-1

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Oct-

11

No

v-1

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De

c-1

1

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n-1

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b-1

2

Ma

r-1

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Ap

r-1

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Ma

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n-1

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Ju

l-1

2

Au

g-1

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Oct-

12

No

v-1

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 61.9 97.6 57.1 78.6 78.6

Feb-13 60.9 97.8 65.9 75.0 84.1

Mar-13 65.2 97.9 66.7 77.1 85.4

Apr-13 75.0 100.0 57.5 92.5 95.0

May-13 65.9 97.6 73.8 64.3 81.0

Jun-13 61.1 100.0 61.8 63.9 79.4

Point Change (4.8) 2.4 (12.0) (0.4) (1.5)

33%

56%

11%



100%

18%6%0%

41%29%

0%

41%

65%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%




June 13 Slide 21

Los Angeles, CA Low Inventories cause Some Buyers to Pause, Pull Others off the Fence


(4,921 single-family permits in 2012, 22nd largest market in the country)


Some buyers are taking a back seat until there is more inventory to choose from.

There is very little inventory. Cash buyers are still dominant and there are multiple offers on my listings. However, low

down payment buyers are being affected by higher rates.

There are buyers who are tired of looking for overpriced homes. They are still interested, but only willing to look if

they feel the price is justified.

There is no inventory and prices are still rising. This is still motivating some of my buyers to enter the market.

Our Take:

Our buyer traffic index came in at 63, down from 77 in May, but levels still exceeded agents expectations for this time of year. Agents indicated that while low inventories caused some

buyers to shy away, others cited it as a source of motivation,

especially as prices continued their upward trajectory.

Prices moved higher in June, as our home price index came in at 96 from 97 in May (any reading above 50).

Inventories and the time to sell both declined in June. We view these both as positive indicators for future pricing power.

0

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Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

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1

Sep-1

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Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

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Ma

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2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Bu

yer

Tra

ffic

In

dex


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Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

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12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

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3

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me P

rice I

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 66.7 83.9 59.5 86.2 77.6

Feb-13 59.3 94.4 48.0 75.0 75.9

Mar-13 66.7 98.0 52.3 80.0 88.0

Apr-13 66.7 96.6 63.5 70.7 81.0

May-13 76.5 97.1 65.0 65.3 83.3

Jun-13 63.0 95.7 53.1 71.4 84.1

Point Change (13.4) (1.5) (11.9) 6.2 0.8

52%

22%

26%



91%

13% 14%9%

69%

5%0%

19%

82%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




June 13 Slide 22

Miami, FL Motivation to Beat Higher Prices and Rates Drives Traffic in June


(5,048 single-family permits in 2012, 21st largest market in the country)


Inventory is still very low, though prices are moving a bit too fast for some buyers to feel comfortable stepping in.

Traffic is still high, but buyers have also become much more demanding and want value for their money. Sellers are also

becoming unrealistic with their asking prices.

My listings increased slightly, but the move still wasnt enough to keep pace with the increase in demand. That is

still rising faster than inventory.

People are more positive on the economy. Rising prices and rates also create the need to buy now.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic fell in June, though levels still managed to beat expectations, as our traffic index came in at 64 from 76 in May.

Agents indicted that buyers were driven by low inventory,

higher prices and concerns about rising interest rates. Buyers

were also said to be more confident about the economy.

Home prices improved further, as our home price index came in at 86 (from 94 in May), still above a reading of 50.

Inventory was still lower in June, though the pressure could begin to ease, as our home listings index came at 65 from 73

in May. Meanwhile, the time to sell continued to decline.

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ffic

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Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

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c-1

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Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

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Ma

y-1

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2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

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No

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Feb

-13

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 60.3 92.6 50.0 80.0 78.6

Feb-13 57.6 88.2 48.5 89.7 75.0

Mar-13 69.7 92.1 54.5 87.8 82.9

Apr-13 66.7 92.4 40.0 87.9 89.4

May-13 75.8 93.9 51.6 72.6 87.9

Jun-13 64.3 86.1 48.6 65.3 77.8

Point Change (11.5) (7.8) (3.0) (7.3) (10.1)

40%

49%

11%



75%

14%6%

22%

74%

33%

3%11%

61%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%




June 13 Slide 23

Minneapolis, MN Low Inventories, Threat of Higher Rates Keep Urgency High in June




Traffic eased a bit, but I think it is mostly because of the summer.

Buyers want to lock in interest rates before it is too late.

People are excited to look because they are worried about higher interest rates and with low inventories, they are also

worried about higher home prices.

Inventory is down and prices are going higher while interest rates are still at attractive levels.

We are keeping busy with real buyers, not so many tire kickers.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic fell sharply in June, as our traffic index came in at 55 from 73 in May. However, levels still met agents expectations and commentary remained fairly positive. Agents

noted that buyers were motivated by low inventories and

higher rates/prices, while other agents highlighted that

demand was real and buyers werent window shopping.

Home prices continued to rise, as our home price index increased to 92 from 86 in May.

Inventory was lower, but more sellers are capitalizing on higher prices. Our home listings index came in at 61 from 83 in May.

0

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Ma

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Jul-

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Aug-1

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Sep-1

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Apr-

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Ma

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3

Jun-1

3

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ffic

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Jun-1

1

Jul-

11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

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c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-

12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

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No

v-1

2

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c-1

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Jan-1

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r-1

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 57.4 83.3 48.6 84.7 81.9

Feb-13 64.3 87.9 42.3 89.3 84.5

Mar-13 52.9 80.6 47.2 69.4 77.8

Apr-13 60.0 92.9 42.9 78.6 92.9

May-13 73.1 88.5 41.7 83.3 88.5

Jun-13 55.3 92.1 52.8 60.5 84.2

Point Change (17.8) 3.6 11.1 (22.8) (4.3)

26%

58%

16%



84%

11%5%

16%

72%

21%

0%

17%

74%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




June 13 Slide 24

Nashville, TN Buyers Driven to Market by Low Inventories, Rising Interest Rates, and Home Prices




Buyers are still waiting in line for listings, and when a good home does come to market it receives multiple offers.

Inventory is still very low.

Buyers feel the need to be careful with their bids. Inventory is so low that sellers are capitalizing and being aggressive

with their asking prices.

Buyers are worried about higher interest rates and they are making sure to look now before they feel rates are too high.

Prices keep getting better and buyers dont want to miss out on the improving environment.

Our Take:

Traffic fell slightly in June, but levels still beat agents expectations. Our traffic index came in at 68 from 73 in May.

Buyers were said to remain motivated by low inventories, and

the effect that higher rates and prices could have on

affordability.

Agents pointed to rising prices, as our home price index came in at 82, unchanged from our reading in May.

Inventories and the time to sell both declined in June. This is a positive indicator for future prices and suggests that urgency in

the market remains high.

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Ju

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No

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Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 61.1 77.8 68.8 66.7 72.2

Feb-13 83.3 83.3 50.0 70.8 83.3

Mar-13 75.0 70.8 70.8 91.7 83.3

Apr-13 80.8 73.1 65.4 53.8 88.5

May-13 72.7 81.8 68.2 72.7 86.4

Jun-13 68.2 81.8 70.0 72.7 86.4

Point Change (4.5) 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0

36%

64%

0%



64%

0%9%

36%

60%

9%0%

40%

82%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




June 13 Slide 25

New York-Northern NJ Buyers Take a Summer Breather, Higher Rates Give and Take Away Traffic




Interest rates are rising and buyers are looking for bargains that just arent there anymore.

Seasonal pressures combined with higher rates have caused the pace of the market to level off.

Higher interest rates are causing some buyers to shy away from the market, but for others, the move higher is acting as

a motivator. Buyers want to act quickly before rates rise even

further.

Buyers concerns that rates will move higher, along with the lack of inventory, is keeping some buyers in the market.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic slipped in June, but still managed to meet agents expectations, as our traffic index came in at 47 from 60 in May

(in-line with a neutral reading). Agents noted that traffic eased

on seasonal factors and higher rates, though some were quick

to note that higher rates continue to bring buyers off the fence.

Home prices continued to improve in June, as our traffic index came in at 65 from 70 in May, above a reading of 50.

Inventories were flat in June, as we think more sellers are beginning to take advantage of the improved pricing

environment. Meanwhile, the time to sell edged lower.

0

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Jun-1

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Jul-1

1

Aug-1

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Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Bu

yer

Tra

ffic

In

dex


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Apr-

12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Ho

me P

rice I

nd

ex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Jan-13 45.8 47.9 53.8 69.8 52.1

Feb-13 57.5 59.6 45.5 64.4 62.5

Mar-13 62.3 68.6 48.9 68.9 66.0

Apr-13 51.0 66.3 51.1 64.4 72.1

May-13 60.4 69.8 57.1 65.1 72.6

Jun-13 46.7 64.8 59.0 52.2 56.7

Point Change (13.6) (5.0) 1.8 (12.9) (16.0)

28%

37%

35%



41%

8%

22%

48%

67%

42%

11%

26%36%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%




June 13 Slide 26

Orlando, FL Buyers Becoming Frustrated, Hoping to Lock In Attractive Affordability Levels


(7,240 single-family building permits in 2012, 8th largest market in the country)


Steady buyer traffic levels, still difficulties for owner occupant buyers to make purchases due to investor

competition and lack of available inventory.

Home buyers are trying to get set before interest rates rise even more.

Multiple offers; buyers are discouraged in the resale market due to still-low inventory.

More cash buyers! Sold $360,000 and $333,000 and both buyers said real estate a better investment now. Do see a

drop in low end buyers with loan requirements tougher.

Our Take:

Traffic softened in June, continuing the volatility seen in our index in recent months, but levels remained essentially in-line

with agents expectations. Our index fell to 45 from 62.

credit suisse monthly survey of real estate agents results june 2013

Documents

higher index

prices higher

higher prices

expectationsour traffic

buyer traffic index

rising prices

higher expectations

levels indicative of