cruise the crop markets 2010 day 2
TRANSCRIPT
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies
Cruise The Crop Markets
by John Roach
January 17 - 24, 2010
Day 2
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
How Should I Market My Crops?
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Chicago December Corn Futures, 1990-2005 average1-
Jan
1-Fe
b 1-M
ar
1-Apr
1-M
ay
1-Ju
n
1-Ju
l
1-Aug
1-Se
p
1-O
ct
1-N
ov
1-D
ec
230
235
240
245
250
255
260
265
approximate dates
cents
per
bus
hel
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Chicago November Soybean Futures, 1990-2005 average1-
Jan
1-Fe
b
1-M
ar
1-Apr 1-
May
1-Ju
n
1-Ju
l
1-Aug 1-
Sep
1-O
ct
1-N
ov
570
575
580
585
590
595
600
605
610
approximate dates
cent
s pe
r bu
shel
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Roach Ag Sales Plan1. Make as many of your sales as possible
during the months of March, April, May and June. Avoid October and November
2. Sell in increments to take advantage of several market peaks using Roach Ag Sell Signals
3. Buy puts on unsold new crop production with either profit goal or insurance goal
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
•Focus the majority of sales in the 1st half of the year
•March through June is usually best
Rule # 1
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
December 2007 Corn
Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Roach Ag Sell & Buy SignalsYour Digital Thermometer For Prices
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Roach Ag Sell SignalsWhen Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
•Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal
Rule # 2
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
•Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level
Rule # 3
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
•Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop using your best ever yields
Rule # 4
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
•Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harvest to generate necessary cash-flow from harvest through February
Rule # 5
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
•Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal
Rule # 6
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
December 2009 Corn Sales
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Roach Ag Marketing Plan Worksheet
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
7601 N. Federal HwySuite 265-B
Boca Raton, FL 33487
800-622-7628
[email protected] http://www.roachag.com