current challenges of official statistics in oic member countries

CURRENT CHALLENGES OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS

IN OIC MEMBER COUNTRIES

PROF. SAVAŞ ALPAY

DIRECTOR GENERAL

SESRIC

CONTENTS

Background

Introduction

Statistical Capacity and the Performance of OIC Countries

O-Stat Programme and New Avenues for OIC-StatCaB Programme

Conclusions

STATISTICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH AND TRAINING CENTRE FOR ISLAMIC COUNTRIES

BACKGROUND

“Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write.”

(Herbert George Wells, 1903)

“Statecraft, namely, the practical application of political science, is a mere sham without a statistical foundation.”

(Ernst Engel [1821-1896],

Director of the Royal Prussian Statistical Bureau)


BACKGROUND

PATHS of STATISTICS

Academic

*Very formalized

*Theoretical: Aims to produce academic research that should provide the theory and the methodological basis for developing innovative analytical tools and estimating

*Needs rigorous mathematics and scientific analysis

*Taught and trained in university departments

Official

*Very difficult to formalize

*Practical: Aims to inform society and policy makers as official statistics should provide the basis for the quantitative assessment of the state of the society and the economy.

*Needs intense labour, craft and administrative skills

*Not taught in university departments, generally not well trained in the mathematical aspects of statistics


STATISTICAL CAPACITY

Official statistics produced by National Statistical Offices (NSO) and other agents of National Statistical System (NSS) are expected to provide information that will facilitate sound policy making and efficient monitoring on all walks of life.

In this regard, the main objective and also the main challenge of NSO is to provide accurate, relevant and timely statistics.

To attain the high quality data mentioned above, the NSOs need to build statistical capacity on a continuous basis.

Statistical Capacity?

The ability of countries to meet user needs for good quality official statistics which are produced by governments as a public good.


STATISTICAL CAPACITY

To quantify the statistical capacity of countries, an approach has been proposed by the World Bank; i.e.,

Statistical Capacity Indicator (SCI). SCI tries to give an overall picture of statistical capacity of 146 developing countries (of which 50 of them

are OIC Countries) in 2012.

Based on a diagnostic framework, the SCI is a composite indicator with a scale between 0 – 100.

The composite score has is comprised of the average score obtained from three dimensions:

1) Statistical Methodology

2) Source Data

3) Periodicity & Timeliness.


OVERALL STATISTICAL CAPACITY SCOREThe average Overall SCI Score of OIC Countries group is below that of the other groups in 2009 and 2012.

Group SCI 2009

SCI 2012 Change

OIC 61.5 62.4 +0.9

Non-OIC 66.1 67.7 +1.6

All Countries 64.5 65.9 +1.40

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2009 2012 2009 2012 2009 2012

OIC Countries Non-OIC Countries All Countries

Dispersion of Overall SCI Scores(2009 vs. 2012)

Change of Overall SCI Scores(2009 vs. 2012)


OVERALL STATISTICAL CAPACITY SCOREWhen examined in more detail, it is observed that 50% of the OIC countries managed to increase their SCI from 2009 to 2012.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Scor

es

Percentile

2009 Scores 2012 Scores

Overall SCI Change for OIC Countries by Percentile( 2009 vs. 2012)

Group

OIC 48% 2% 50%

Non-OIC 42.7% 6.3% 51%

All Countries 44.5% 4.8% 50.7%

Performance in Overall SCI by Direction of Change (2009 vs. 2012)

OVERALL STATISTICAL CAPACITY SCOREPerformance of OIC Countries in Overall SCI

(2009 vs. 2012)

GAB TKMYEM COM

SYRGUY MRT

CMRSUR

UZB IRNSEN

PAKBGDMAR

MYSTUN

AZETJKALB

IDNTUR

KGZEGY

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Yea

r 20

12

Year 2009

SOM

LBYSDN

DJIIRQ AFGGNB

BENSLE

TGO GINTCDCIVLBN MDV

MLIGMBNERUGA

BFAPALJORNGA

MOZ

KAZ

Non-OICAll

DZA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Yea

r 20

12

Year 2009

Progress

Regression


STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY

Statistical Methodology (SM): First dimension of the SCI

It quantifies the extent that a country follows and implements internationally recommended statistical standards and methods

10 criteria including national accounts, balance of payments, CPI, production index, external debt, import/export prices, government finance, reporting to UNESCO, vaccine reporting, and SDDS are equally weighted to score this dimension.


STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY

The group of OIC Countries achieved the highest SM score increase from 2009 to 2012, though its group average being the lowest among others in both years.

Group SM 2009

SM 2012 Change

OIC 46.4 49.4 +3.0

Non-OIC 56.4 59.1 +2.7


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2009 2012 2009 2012 2009 2012


Dispersion of SM Scores(2009 vs. 2012)

Change of SM Scores(2009 vs. 2012)


1) STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY

24 of the OIC Countries managed to increase their SM scores from 2009 to 2012

whereas 14 of them recorded a decrease

and 12 of them maintained their scores in both years.

KGZTUR

IDNTUN

AZECMR

TCDSLESURTKM

MARPAK

IRN

MYS

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

KAZEGY

MRTSEN

BGDTGOUGA

LBYSDNYEM

COMSOM

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

PAL

CIVAFGGMBGUY

JORALBMDVTJK

DZAMOZSYR

LBNNGAUZB

BENBFADJINER

GABGINGNBMLI

IRQ

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Performance of Individual OIC Countries(2009 vs. 2012)


STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY% of OIC Countries with Full Scores in SM Components

(2009 vs. 2012)

84%

80%

68%

40%

52%

50%

32%

34%

16%

8%

92%

80%

78%

66%

54%

34%

34%

30%

20%

6%

Balance of payments

External debt

Reporting to UNESCO

CPI

Vaccine reporting

National accounts

Production index

Government finance

SDDS

Import / Export prices

2009 2012


SOURCE DATA

Source Data (SD): Second dimension of the SCI

It reflects whether a country takes into consideration the internationally recommended periodicity in its data collection activities, and whether data from administrative systems are available and reliable for statistical estimation purposes.

5 criteria are included: Periodicity of population and agricultural censuses, the periodicity of poverty and health related surveys, and completeness of vital registration system coverage.


SOURCE DATAAll groups recorded score decreases in SD, though the OIC Countries group average being the lowest among others in 2009 and 2012.

Group SD 2009

SD 2012 Change

OIC 59.8 58.4 -1.4

Non-OIC 65.8 64.3 -1.5

All Countries 63.8 62.4 -1.4

Dispersion of SD Scores(2009 vs. 2012)

Change of SD Scores(2009 vs. 2012)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2009 2012 2009 2012 2009 2012



SOURCE DATA

KGZAZE

GMBIRNSUR

TUNCOMMARUZB

DZAYEM

TKM

ALBTJK

CIVSEN

GUYMRT

GABSYR

PAK

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

EGYKAZ

BGDIDNMYSMLI

MOZNGATUR

JORCMRGIN

AFGLBY

SDNSOM

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

PALLBN

TCDGNBTGO

BFAUGA

NERIRQMDVSLE

BENDJI

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


13 of the OIC Countries managed to increase their SD scores from 2009 to 2012

whereas 21 of them recorded a decrease 16 of them maintained their scores in

both years.


SOURCE DATA

% of OIC Countries with Full Scores in SD Components, 2009 vs. 2012

78%

82%

61%

54%

24%

80%

75%

59%

54%

24%

Population Census

Health Survey

Poverty Survey

Agricultural Census

Vital registration system

2009 2012


PERIODICITY AND TIMELINESS

Periodicity and Timeliness (PT): Third and last dimension of the SCI

It tries to measure the extent to which data are made accessible to users through transformation of source data into timely statistical outputs.

10 criteria are included: Periodicities of the indicators including income poverty, child malnutrition, child mortality, immunization, HIV/AIDS, maternal health, gender equality in education, primary completion, access to water, and GDP growth.


PERIODICITY AND TIMELINESSThe OIC Countries group outperformed the others in 2009. All groups achieved nearly the same average PT score in 2012.

Group PT 2009

PT 2012 Change

OIC 78.3 79.5 +1.2

Non-OIC 76.1 79.6 +3.6


Dispersion of PT Scores(2009 vs. 2012)

Change of PT Scores(2009 vs. 2012)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2009 2012 2009 2012 2009 2012



3) PERIODICITY AND TIMELINESS

26 of the OIC Countries managed to increase their PT scores from 2009 to 2012

whereas 18 of them recorded a decrease

6 of them maintained their scores in both years.

TURDJI

IDNEGY

GUYMAR

AFGGAB

SENBEN

MYSMDV

TCDUZB

IRN

YEM

BGD

COM

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

BFAGIN

CMRNER

DZAJOR

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

MRTLBN

GNB

GMBSOM

KGZSDN

KAZSLE

NGAMLI

UGAMOZ

ALBTUN

CIVIRQ

SURSYR

TKM

TJKPAK

PALLBY

AZETGO

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100



PERIODICITY AND TIMELINESS% of OIC Countries with Full Scores in PT Components

(2009 vs. 2012)

100%

98%

76%

95%

82%

76%

61%

69%

73%

52%

100%

98%

98%

92%

82%

82%

65%

65%

59%

54%

Mortality (under 5)

Measles immunization (under 1)

Improved water source

GDP per capita growth

HIV (adults aged 15-49)

Attended births

Malnutrition (under 5)

Primary completion

Ratio of girls to boys (prim & sec)

Poverty (below $1/ day)

2009 2012


SUMMARY OF SCI

Based on the overall SCI scores, the OIC Countries group was behind the average Statistical Capacity of of the Non-OIC and All Countries groups in 2012.

At the SCI dimensional level, the OIC Countries group on average performed weaker than the Non-OIC and All Countries groups in of Statistical Methodology and Source Data in 2012.

Only in the Periodicity and Timeliness dimension, the OIC Countries as a group attained almost the same average as the other groups did in 2012.


SUMMARY OF SCI

The following areas require sound and immediate actions to enhance the statistical capacity of OIC Countries:

Statistical Methodology

Import/Export prices (6% of OIC countries with full score)

Special Data Dissemination Standard (20% of OIC countries with full score)

Government finance (30% of OIC countries with full score)

Production index (34% of OIC countries with full score)

National accounts (34% of OIC countries with full score)

Source Data

Completeness of vital registration system (24% of OIC countries with full score)


O-STAT PROGRAMME UNDER OIC-STATCOM

O-Stat Programme for “Accreditation of Statistical Professionals” under OIC Statistical Commission One of the key issues to be considered in statistical capacity development is the improvement of the

statistical competency of the statisticians working in the national statistical offices.

The main objective of the “Accreditation of Statistical Professionals” program is to certify the expertise and knowledge under an official context for the professional conduct of statistical work of statistical specialists. The primary target audience includes currently employed statistical professionals in the NSOs and relevant line ministries in OIC Countries.

A TCE on “Development of a Certification and Accreditation Programme for Statistical Professionals” was established in 2012 in order to develop conceptual and methodological background of the accreditation program for professional statisticians working for statistical organisations of the OIC Countries.

As being the permanent ex-officio members of OIC-StatCom, IDB and SESRIC fully support the TCE.


NEW AVENUES FOR OIC-STATCAB PROGRAMME

Since 2007, experts from the member NSOs deliver short-term trainings under the OIC Statistical Capacity Building Programme (StatCaB)

More than 50 trainings have been delivered; nearly 1000 experts were trained.

Provider and beneficiary NSOs are matched based on the responses collected through the bi-annual StatCaB survey.

OIC-StatCaB Surveys have been continuously enhanced since 2007.



OIC-StatCaB Trainings: Efficient and focused on needs... Of the conducted StatCaB trainings, 26 of them were on economic

statistics domain.

Of those trainings on economic statistics, 11 of them were on national accounts (34% of the member countries had a full SCI score in 2012).

NSO experts from provider member countries with extensive knowledge and equipped with field experience have a competitive advantage in leveraging the outcome expected by the beneficiary NSOs.



OIC-StatCaB Survey for 2014-2015, based on Classification on Statistical Activities (CSA) Rev. I tries to identify the needs and capacities of member NSOs in

statistical domains

in accordance with the OIC-StatCom Executive Work Plan, also asks them to state the relationship between the statistical domains, under which data are collected/compiled, and national development objectives of the member countries.



Overall statistical capability can be achieved if continuous improvement can be sustained both in technical knowledge and soft skills.

In accordance with the OIC-StatCom Executive Work Plan, OIC-StatCaB Survey for 2014-2015 includes a new section: Professional Skills for Official Statisticians

For now, the survey will identify the needs and capacities under: Effective Communication, Leadership and Personal Development in an Official Statistics Setting, and Stakeholder Relations and Statistical Literacy


CONCLUSIONSTo provide timely, accurate, reliable, relevant and quality data to users, all actors of NSSs need

sustainable financial, technological and human resources.

NSOs, being the main producers and coordinators of official statistics, need to make the best and optimal use of these resources to raise their capacity to provide information for evidence based policy making.

Human resources of official statistics should not only be supported with technical knowledge and IT-related skills but also with data sense and soft skills to achieve overall statistical capability.

NSOs should keep an open channel with all the international and regional organizations to inform them about their needs and capacities through responses to relevant surveys.

The NSOs of OIC Countries should actively participate in the OIC-StatCom sessions and working groups.

Apart from that, the NSOs of OIC Countries with relevant expertise should keenly seek ways to become a member in the expert groups of UN Statistical Commission and other pertinent international statistical organisations to better voice and reflect their demands and needs.


CONCLUSIONS

NSOs also need to reach out the citizens by initiating statistical awareness programmes with the aim of promoting the data they produce and their profession to attract new generations as official statisticians.

As a collaborative approach, massive open online courses (MOOC) on official statistics can be used as an outreach tool focused on common public.

The traditional education techniques should also be diversified. In this perspective, interested OIC Countries can pay study visits to other OIC Countries with a sound established level of higher education institutions in official statistics, such as the STIS under the administration of BPS–Statistics Indonesia.

To foster the statistical capacity, various universities in different OIC Countries with a sufficient level of infrastructure should be supported in financial, technological and human resources to initiate post-graduate degree programmes in official statistics comprehending a mutually agreed common curricula with additional course topics specific to the needs of the country of establishment.

To properly assess the statistical capacities of the OIC Countries, the feasibility to construct a more comprehensive SCI should be studied.


THANK YOU!

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TELEPHONE: (90-312) 468 61 72 FAX: (90-312) 467 34 58 / (90-312) 468 57 26

URL: http://www.sesric.org

E-MAIL: [email protected] / [email protected]

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