daily commodity roundup as on - systematix...
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Daily Commodity Roundup as on Friday, November 02, 2018
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1
14.67CRUDE $
63.69
-0.08 -0.33 -2.48
IN
TER
NA
TIO
NA
L M
AR
KET U
PD
ATE GOLD $
1232.20SILVER $
USDJPY112.694
-0.01 -0.05 0.03EURUSD
1.1400GBPUSD
1.2987
LME
NICKEL
11810
-0.7 -0.79 -0.17
LME
COPPER
6096 LME
ZINC
2525
$ INDEX96.35
0 -0.33 0.02
LME ALUMINIUM
1976 LME
LEAD
1951
DJIA25116
-0.03 -0.06 0.97SENSEX
34432NIFTY
10380
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 2
NIKKEI21842
-0.7 1.09 0.71USDINR
73.68 S&P
INDEX
2712
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MCX Gold Dec 2018
Gold gained as the recent drop in metal prices and an easing of the U.S. dollar from multi-month highs stoked buying.
Gold on MCX settled up 0.45% at 31892 as the recent drop in metal
prices and an easing of the U.S. dollar from multi-month highs stoked
buying. Investors are wary of a potential saturation in currencies ahead of
the U.S. mid-term elections and amid other geo-political uncertainties.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping both
expressed optimism about resolving their bitter trade disputes ahead of a
high-stakes meeting planned for the two leaders at the end of November
in Argentina. Trump increased economic pressure on Venezuela’s leftist
President Nicolas Maduro with new sanctions aimed at disrupting the
South American country’s gold exports. The U.S. economy is expanding
at a 3.0 percent annualised rate in the fourth quarter, following the latest
data on manufacturing activity and construction spending, the Atlanta
Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed. The UK and the
European Union have made progress on a deal to give London’s dominant
financial centre basic access to EU markets after Brexit, two British
officials said, but no agreement has yet been clinched. SPDR Gold Trust
(GLD), the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its
holdings rose 0.90 percent to 760.82 tonnes on Thursday from 754.06
tonnes on Wednesday. Global demand for gold rose slightly in the third
quarter compared to the same period a year ago as resurgent buying
from central banks and retail consumers balanced huge outflows from
exchange traded funds, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Thursday.
Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop
in open interest by -0.3% to settled at 13387 while prices up 144 rupees,
now Gold is getting support at 31778 and below same could see a test of
31665 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 31971, a move
above could see prices testing 32051.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
31787
SUPPORT 3
32164 32051 31971 31778 31665 31585
31938 31745 31892 0.45 13387
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 3
Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 31665-32051.
Investors are wary of a potential saturation in currencies ahead of the U.S. mid-term elections and amid other geo-political uncertainties.
Indian gold demand in 2018 is expected to fall from the previous year as a rally in local prices to five-year highs is likely to dent purchases during key festivals.
Sales of gold coins and minted bars dropped 41 percent from September to 36,840 ounces, the mint said.
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MCX Silver Dec 2018
Silver gained as the dollar weakened after flirting with 10-week highs on the bullish private jobs report.
Silver on MCX settled up 1.89% at 38771 as the dollar weakened after
flirting with 10-week highs on the bullish private jobs report. Federal data
showed new applications for U.S. unemployment aid fell last week and
the number of Americans receiving benefits was the lowest in more than
45 years as labour market conditions tightened further. The economy’s
upbeat outlook was, however, tempered by news that manufacturing
activity slowed in October as a measure of new orders dropped to its
lowest level in 1-1/2 years. President Trump said in a tweet on Thursday
that he had a "long and very good conversation" with President Xi on
trade and North Korea and that the two planned to meet at the upcoming
G-20 summit. A British official said that London was close to a deal that
will grant UK-based financial services firms basic access to the rest of the
European Union markets. The Bank of England (BOE) announced it would
keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday and this also bolstered the
sterling, but the BOE also hinted at faster rate increases if Brexit goes
smoothly. Markets are also watching the U.S. congressional elections on
Tuesday, which will determine whether the Republican or Democratic
party controls the U.S. Congress, with some predicting increased market
volatility on the outcome. Investors will focus on Friday’s non-farm
payrolls data for further clues on the strength of the U.S. economy. Silver
sales were down 17 percent from September to 1,079,684 ounces, the
mint said. Technically market is under short covering as market has
witnessed drop in open interest by -19.74% to settled at 24031, now
Silver is getting support at 38218 and below same could see a test of
37665 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 39107, a move
above could see prices testing 39443.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
38025 38890
39996 39443 39107 38218 37665 37329
38001 38771 1.89 24031
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 4
Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 37665-39443.
The U.S. economy is expanding at a 3.0 percent annualised rate in the fourth quarter, following the latest data on manufacturing activity and construction spending.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping both expressed optimism about resolving their bitter trade disputes.
Silver sales were down 17 percent from September to 1,079,684 ounces, the mint said.
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MCX Crudeoil Nov 2018
Crude oil dropped amid signs of rising supply and growing concerns that demand might weaken on the prospect of a global economic slowdown.
Crudeoil on MCX settled down -4.7% at 4662 as rising crude supply met
the bearish combination of concern over global growth and weak equity
markets. Russia is pumping oil at a post-Soviet high, U.S. crude output
has topped 11 million barrels a day and a Reuters survey of OPEC
production shows the group more than made up for any declines in
Iranian shipments in October. U.S. Energy Information Administration
data showed crude oil inventories climbed for a sixth straight week. U.S.
crude production stood at 11.3 million barrels per day in August, up 3.8%
compared to July, and had surged 22.7% from August last year. Losses
were kept in check as looming U.S. sanctions on Iran, the third-largest
producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC), are widely expected to lead to a tighter market. The sanctions,
due to come into force Nov. 4, are being reinstated after U.S. President
Donald Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal earlier this year. Still,
Goldman Sachs reiterated a year-end forecast for Brent prices of $80
barrel. The bank said 2018 oil demand growth, though down slightly,
remains above consensus expectations, and said Chinese demand
continues to show resilience despite concerns over the world's second-
biggest economy. Meanwhile a Reuters survey found the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) boosted oil production in
October to its highest since 2016, as higher output led by the United Arab
Emirates and Libya more than offset a cut in Iranian shipments due to
U.S. sanctions, set to start on Nov. 4. Technically market is under fresh
selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 47.58% to
settled at 14466 while prices down -230 rupees, now Crudeoil is getting
support at 4574 and below same could see a test of 4487 level, And
resistance is now likely to be seen at 4804, a move above could see
prices testing 4947.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
4860 4860
5034 4947 4804 4574 4487 4344
4630 4662 -4.70 14466
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 5
Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4487-4947.
U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed crude oil inventories climbed for a sixth straight week.
U.S. crude production stood at 11.3 million barrels per day in August, up 3.8% compared to July, and had surged 22.7% from August last year.
A survey from showed that OPEC’s oil production in October was 33.31 million bpd, up 390,000 bpd from September and the highest since December 2016.
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MCX Copper Nov 2018
Copper rallied after the presidents of the United States and China both expressed optimism about resolving a trade row between the two countries.
Copper on MCX settled up 1.16% at 440.75 tracking firmness from LME
Copper prices which rose 1.6 percent to $6,089 per tonne as investors
greeted the latest batch of earnings optimistically amid signs of easing
trade tension. The dollar sank, and oil tumbled. Support seen with most
metals recovering from Wednesday’s dip amid a softer US dollar index
and a continued drawdown in LME inventories. Prices may see some
sentimental support as market participants were also betting on economic
stimulus measures in China after the world’s top metals consumer
pledged to boost domestic infrastructure spending to combat a perceived
slowdown in its economy. Last night most LME and SHFE base metals
ended in the black overnight with LME nickel being the best performer, up
2.5% on the day. LME copper and zinc surged 2.3%, lead jumped 1.75%,
aluminium rose by over 1%. The US dollar retreated from multi-month
highs on Thursday while the pound rose the most in nine months on
reports that London is close to a financial services deal with Brussels. A
British official said that London was close to a deal that will grant UK-
based financial services firms basic access to the rest of the EU markets.
The BOE announced it would keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday
and this also bolstered the sterling, but the BOE also hinted at faster rate
increases if Brexit goes smoothly. The US will release October nonfarm
payrolls, the September trade balance, durable goods orders and factory
orders. Technically market is under short covering as market has
witnessed drop in open interest by -7.79% to settled at 13976, now
Copper is getting support at 434.9 and below same could see a test of
428.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 444.3, a move
above could see prices testing 447.7.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
437.00
SUPPORT 3
453.7 447.7 444.3 434.9 428.9 425.5
441.70 432.35 440.75 1.16 13976
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 428.9-447.7.
Inventories of copper in LME-approved warehouses, at 143,125 tonnes, are down more than 60 percent since the 2018 peak near 390,000 tonnes.
The problem is compounded by cancelled warrants at nearly 54 percent of total stocks and a large holding of copper warrants between 50 and 79 percent.
Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 136675mt that is down by -950mt.
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 6
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MCX Zinc Nov 2018
Zinc prices ended with gains on concerns of an environmental crackdown in China.
Zinc on MCX settled up 0.88% at 188.65 gained on expectations of eased
US-China trade tension buoyed LME zinc to a high of $2,566/mt last
night. It regained most of its losses on Thursday and settled at
$2,544.5/mt. Total zinc inventories are at their lowest since 2008,
prompting one of the widest backwardations in the metal’s nearby
cash/three-month spread, recently seen at $63 per tonne. Prices may see
some sentimental support as market participants were also betting on
economic stimulus measures in China after the world’s top metals
consumer pledged to boost domestic infrastructure spending to combat a
perceived slowdown in its economy. Last night most LME and SHFE base
metals ended in the black overnight with LME nickel being the best
performer, up 2.5% on the day. LME copper and zinc surged 2.3%, lead
jumped 1.75%, aluminium rose by over 1%. The US dollar retreated from
multi-month highs on Thursday while the pound rose the most in nine
months on reports that London is close to a financial services deal with
Brussels. A British official said that London was close to a deal that will
grant UK-based financial services firms basic access to the rest of the EU
markets. The BOE announced it would keep interest rates unchanged on
Thursday and this also bolstered the sterling, but the BOE also hinted at
faster rate increases if Brexit goes smoothly. The US will release October
nonfarm payrolls, the September trade balance, durable goods orders and
factory orders. Technically market is under short covering as market has
witnessed drop in open interest by -6.3% to settled at 3080, now Zinc is
getting support at 187.2 and below same could see a test of 185.6 level,
And resistance is now likely to be seen at 190.6, a move above could see
prices testing 192.4.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
188.9
SUPPORT 3
194.0 192.4 190.6 187.2 185.6 183.8
190.9 187.4 188.7 0.88 3080
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 185.6-192.4.
China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) said that it will begin the second round of environmental reviews soon.
Stocks across Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin rose by 1,800 mt from Friday Oct 26 to stand at 150,700 mt as of now.
Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 144175mt that is down by -6850mt.
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 7
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MCX Nickel Nov 2018
Nickel ended with gains as expectations of eased US-China trade tension buoyed prices
Nickel on MCX settled up 1.2% at 867 prices gained on short covering
tracking LME Nickel rebounded from a 10-month low touched on
Wednesday, ending 2.7 percent higher at $11,785 tonnes. Nickel was the
best performer among MCX, LME and SHFE base metals overnight. Miner
and trader Glencore said it saw significant structural deficits continuing in
the nickel market due to limited supply and demand being “much
stronger than most market participants recognise”. Support also seen as
Miner and trader Glencore said it saw significant structural deficits
continuing in the nickel market due to limited supply and demand being
“much stronger than most market participants recognise. Prices may see
some sentimental support as market participants were also betting on
economic stimulus measures in China after the world’s top metals
consumer pledged to boost domestic infrastructure spending to combat a
perceived slowdown in its economy. Last night most LME and SHFE base
metals ended in the black overnight with LME nickel being the best
performer, up 2.5% on the day. LME copper and zinc surged 2.3%, lead
jumped 1.75%, aluminium rose by over 1%. The US dollar retreated from
multi-month highs on Thursday while the pound rose the most in nine
months on reports that London is close to a financial services deal with
Brussels. The BOE announced it would keep interest rates unchanged on
Thursday and this also bolstered the sterling, but the BOE also hinted at
faster rate increases if Brexit goes smoothly. Technically market is
getting support at 854.4 and below same could see a test of 841.7 level,
And resistance is now likely to be seen at 876, a move above could see
prices testing 884.9.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
856.9
SUPPORT 3
897.6 884.9 876.0 854.4 841.7 832.8
872.2 850.6 867 1.20 14451
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 841.7-884.9.
China's manufacturing sector barely grew last month after stalling in September, after the country's official PMI showed the slowest growth in over two years.
Production of nickel pig iron in Jiangsu province is unlikely to be affected by provincial winter curbs this year as the restrictions mainly target blast furnaces.
Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 218868mt that is up by 6mt.
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 8
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NCDEX Jeera Dec 2018
Jeera prices dropped on profit booking after prices gained on crop concern due to water shortage in producing centres of Gujarat and Rajasthan.
Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 1.65% at 20980 amid concerns over
production amid prevailing high temperature. During monsoon season,
Jeera producing districts of Gujarat received scanty rains, which will affect
its production in next season. The prevailing water crisis may curtail jeera
sowing by about 25% from last year’s 7.80 lakh ha. Jeera exports (both
in seed and powdered form) down 20% on year in August 2018 to 11,324
tonnes (Vs 14,283). However, jeera exports in 2018/19 (Apr-Aug) has
crossed 1 lakh tonnes, up 54.8% compared to exports last year for same
period as per data released by Commerce Ministry. Seasonally, the
exports of Jeera dip during the 4th quarter of the calendar year. However,
those regions which have good irrigation facilities will have good output.
According to the initial trade estimate, there may not be any increase in
the sowing area of jeera because of dry weather. However, if the
producing states receive good rains in November, then the sowing area
could see an increase. The overseas demand for Indian jeera is expected
to increase as the supply from other origins like Turkey and Syria are
limited and of poor quality. Although Indian jeera is priced higher in the
global market, it is drawing more buyers because of superior quality. As
per the Ministry of Agriculture, Cumin production in India for 2017-18 is
estimated at 5 lakh tonnes as against 4.95 lakh tonnes in 2016-17. In
Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 400 Rupees to
end at 20003.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting
support at 20750 and below same could see a test of 20515 level, And
resistance is now likely to be seen at 21125, a move above could see
prices testing 21265.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
20880
SUPPORT 3
21225 21115 20980 20735 20625 20490
21005 20760 20840 -0.67 3387
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6947-6947.
Sowing was expected to be higher due to prevailing high prices but lower rains in producing areas may impact the yield and overall output.
NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 101 tonnes to 2791 tonnes.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 20320 rupee per 100 kg.
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 9
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NCDEX Turmeric Dec 2018
Turmeric prices dropped on profit booking and on expectations of better crop this season.
Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.97% at 6730 on profit booking
and on expectations of better crop this season. Turmeric sowing in all the
major producing states is higher than last year and weather also
remained favourable. According to the Department of Horticulture and
Plantation Crops of Tamil Nadu, acreage of turmeric in Erode may jump
nearly 80% on year to 5,300 hectare in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) because of
very good rainfall this year and availability of other water sources. In
Telangana, turmeric acreage rose to 47,790 hectare compared to 44,956
hectare a year ago, state government data showed. In Andhra Pradesh
farmers planted turmeric over an area 18,000 hectares up from 14,000
hectares a year ago. During the September, arrivals of turmeric have
been higher at 12,478 t (Vs 10,978 t) compared last year, as per data. As
per data released by Commerce Ministry, turmeric exports during the
month of August 2018, increase by 51.6% on year to 12,045 tonnes (Vs
7,944 tonnes). As per trade information, currently all India Turmeric
stocks are reported around 24 - 25 lakh bags as compared to last year 32
– 34 lakh bags down by around 24 per cent. Currently turmeric stocks in
Nizamabad (both old and new crop) were estimated around 3.90 lakh
bags as compared to around 2.80 lakh bags same period last year. In
Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7087.5 Rupees
remains unchanged at0 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling
as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.76% to settled at
6610 while prices down -66 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at
6686 and below same could see a test of 6640 level, And resistance is
now likely to be seen at 6804, a move above could see prices testing
6876.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
6830
SUPPORT 3
6922 6876 6804 6686 6640 6568
6830 6712 6730 -0.97 6610
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 6640-6876.
Turmeric sowing in all the major producing states is higher than last year and weather also remained favourable.
NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 279 tonnes to 3185 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7087.5 Rupees remains unchanged at0 Rupees.
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 10
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MCX Menthaoil Nov 2018
Mentha oil prices rallied due to bullish demand outlook from domestic market as well as exporters.
Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 0.28% at 1820.2 due to bullish demand
outlook from domestic market as well as exporters. Spot markets are also
witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. Bumper
crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving
upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal stood at
400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies
rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to preliminary
estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton
against last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be chances of
crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition.
Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices
are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in
production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the
demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around
80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production
stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between
30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in
India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. Mentha oil
spot at Sambhal closed at 1941.60 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by
Rs.20.80/-.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has
witnessed gain in open interest by 2.99% to settled at 1516 while prices
up 5 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1805.8 and below same
could see a test of 1791.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at
1830.3, a move above could see prices testing 1840.4.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
1805.10
SUPPORT 3
1854.8 1840.4 1830.3 1805.8 1791.4 1781.3
1826.00 1801.50 1820.20 0.28 1516
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1791.4-1840.4.
Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1941.60 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.20.80/-.
Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies.
Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users.
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 11
TIME ZONE Forecast
CommodityLME STOCK Stock
COPPER -950 136675
ALUMINIUM -625 1047325
NICKEL 6 218868
LEAD 300 113550
ZINC -6850 144175
4040 22550 20840 4635 6730 4176 571.3 3407
DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL
COMMODITIESNCDEX CHANA Dec
2018
NCDEX Cotton Nov
2018
NCDEX Jeera Dec
2018
NCDEX Guarseed10
Dec 2018
NCDEX Turmeric
Dec 2018
NCDEX Rmseed Dec
2018MCX CPO Nov 2018
NCDEX Soyabean
Dec 2018
NCDEX
Ref.Soya oil
Dec 2018
759.35CLOSE
P. POINT 4031 22440 20870 4646 6758 4172
4067 22740 20980 4687 6804 4203
RESISTANCE
4130 23240 21225 4779 6922 4260
570.4 3390 758
770
4094 22940 21115 4738 6876 4229 575.3 3454 765
578.2 3494
573.3 3430 763
4554 6640 4115 565.5 3326 751
4004 22240 20735 4595 6686 4146 568.4 3366
749
Cng in OI 5.34 -1.97 1.53 7.37 15.76 6.69 -2.30 11.12 11.92
SUPPORT
3941 21740 20490 4503 6568 4089 563.5 3302
756
3968 21940 20625
Fresh Buying
LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA
DATA Previous
12:30pm EUR German Import Prices m/m 0.004 0
TREND Fresh Buying Short Covering Fresh Selling Fresh Selling Fresh Selling Fresh Buying Short Covering Fresh Buying
1:15pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance 0 -97.3B
1:45pm EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 51 51.4
2:15pm EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 49.7 50
2:20pm EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 51.2 51.2
2:25pm EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 52.3 52.3
2:30pm EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 52.1 52.1
6:00pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.002 0.003
6:00pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 191K 134K
6:00pm USD Unemployment Rate 0.038 0.037
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 12
-950-625
6300
-6850
-8000
-7000
-6000
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC
LME STOCK
NEWS YOU CAN USE
The International Lead and Zinc Group (ILZSG) has just drastically revised its estimate of supply-demand balance in the lead market. At its October meeting the group
lifted its assessment of the supply deficit this year to 123,000 tonnes from its April forecast of 17,000 tonnes. While projected demand growth has been slashed to just
0.2 percent from 2.7 percent, the supply side of the equation has come in for even more radical revision. Mine supply, which was expected to grow by a robust 4.2
percent in April, is now expected to fall by 0.2 percent this year. That in turn will drag refined metal production growth down to just 0.4 percent from a previous forecast
of 3.8 percent. The ILZSG's estimates are broadly in line with those of Wood Mackenzie, although the research group has a slightly different deficit timeline. But,
according to Farid Ahmed, Woodmac's lead analyst, "what is certainly true is that our 2018 mine supply figures have continued to fall throughout the year" to the tune of
around 450,000 tonnes, split fairly evenly between China and the rest of the world. Current deficit in the lead market mirrors that in the zinc market and reflects the
closure over the last few years of major mines which produced both "sister" metals. Environmental crackdown in China, meanwhile, has hollowed out the country's
traditional role as swing producer of both metals during periods of tightness.
There is no risk of contagion from Italy’s budget crisis in the European Union but the euro zone is not prepared enough to face a new economic crisis, French Finance
Minister Bruno Le Maire told daily Le Parisien. The European Commission rejected Italy’s draft 2019 budget earlier this week for breaking EU rules on public spending, and
asked Rome to submit a new one within three weeks or face disciplinary action. “We do not see any contagion in Europe. The European Commission has reached out to
Italy, I hope Italy will seize this hand,” he said in an interview. Euro zone officials have said that Rome’s unprecedented standoff with Brussels seems certain to delay the
reform process and probably dilute it for good. Le Maire also said French banks with branches in Italy had issued corporate and household loans totaling 280 billion euros.
India's vegetable oil imports fell 2% on year to 1.49 mln tn in September, according to data from Solvent Extractors' Association of India. During Nov-Sep, the country
imported 13.8 mln tn of vegetable oil compared with 14.3 mln tn a year ago. Despite rupee depreciation, import of vegetable oil in Aug-Sep was higher compared to
previous months due to lower stocks of edible oil in the pipeline and as fall in palm oil prices encouraged purchases, the association said. During Nov-Sep, palm oil
imports fell to 7.9 mln tn from 8.5 mln tn a year ago, while import of soft oils were largely unchanged at 5.4 mln tn. Meanwhile, as of Oct 1, India had 923,000 tn of
edible oil lying at ports, with another 1.63 mln tn in the pipeline. India's total demand for edible oils during 2017-18 (Nov-Oct) is estimated at 23 mln tn. On a monthly
basis, the country requires 1.9 mln tn of edible oil. The country has over 2.55 mln tn edible oil in stocks, enough to meet demand for 40 days, the association said.
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 13
Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 14
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