DAILY I FOREX REPORT

22TH

JULY 2013

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Dollar Retreating From Chart Resistance, S&P 500 Sets New High

US Dollar Has Held On, But Next Move Likely Lower

Forex markets have slowed down as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke eased market tensions and sent volatility lower. Here are the trades we think might do well in current markets.

Don’t Fight the Fed - Bernanke's Words Will Drive US Dollar Lower

The US Dollar fell against major currencies except the Japanese Yen as the S&P 500 surged to fresh record-highs…

Euro Stability in the Face of Financial Trouble a Sign of Strength?

Can this benchmark currency exploit its fundamental buoyancy and drive EURUSD above 1.3200 this week?

British Pound Looks Higher Ahead of 2Q GDP as BoE Votes Unanimously

The Euro finished the week mixed overall, sliding another -1.41% against the US Dollar…

Yen Could Weaken as ‘Abenomics’ Affirmed by Japanese Elections

The Japanese Yen will have a difficult time this coming week with elections around the corner.

Australian Dollar Has Room to Recover if CPI Data Cooperates

The Australian Dollar appears increasingly likely to launch a recovery…

TRADING TIPS

BUY EURUSD ABOVE

1.3160 TGT 1.3180/1.3200

SL 1.3130

SELL USDJPY BELOW 99.50

TGT 99.30/99.10 SL 99.80

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5270 TGT 1.5290/1.5310

SL 1.5240

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0030 (BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 62 (BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDJPY CHART

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ANALYSIS

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>37(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

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ANALYSIS

GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>61(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>39(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARIISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>.0138(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>35(BEARISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun

Jul 14

CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

0.7% 0.3%

22:30

NZD Performance Services Index (JUN)

Medium 55.0

56.0

23:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (JUL)

Low 0.3%

1.2%

23:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (JUL)

Medium 4.8%

2.7%

Mon

Jul 15 01:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (JUN)

Low 4.0%

0.0%

01:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Low 7.1%

0.2%

02:00

CNY Business Climate Index (2Q)

Low 120.6

125.6

02:00

CNY Real GDP YTD (YoY) (2Q)

High 7.6% 7.7% 7.7%

02:00

CNY Entrepreneur Confidence Index (2Q)

Low 117.0

122.4

02:00

CNY GDP (YoY) (2Q) High 7.5% 7.5% 7.7%

02:00

CNY Real GDP (QoQ) (2Q)

High 1.7% 1.8% 1.6%

02:00

CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 9.3% 9.3% 9.4%

02:00

CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 8.9% 9.1% 9.2%

02:00

CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 20.1% 20.2% 20.4%

02:00

CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 12.7% 12.7% 12.6%

02:00

CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Medium 13.3% 12.9% 12.9%

07:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUN)

Low 0.1% 0.1% -0.3%

07:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUN)

Low 0.2% 0.2% -0.2%

12:00

USD Fed's Tarullo Speaks on Banking Regulation in Washington

Low

ECONOMIC CALLENDER

12:30

USD Empire Manufacturing (JUL)

Low

5 7.84

12:30

USD Advance Retail Sales (JUN)

High

0.7% 0.6%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Less Autos (JUN)

Medium

0.4% 0.3%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (JUN)

Low

0.3% 0.3%

12:30

USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (JUN)

Low

0.4% 0.3%

13:00

CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

3.6%

14:00

USD Business Inventories (MAY)

Medium

0.2% 0.3%

21:00

USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

Low

22:45

NZD Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (2Q)

Medium

0.3% 0.4%

22:45

NZD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (2Q)

Medium

0.8% 0.9%

Tue

Jul 16 01:30

AUD RBA Policy Meeting - July Minutes

High

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Low

49.20%

06:00

EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (JUN)

Low

-5.9%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-0.2% -0.3%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)

Low

4.2% 2.2%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.1% 0.0%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

1.9% 1.2%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.1% 0.1%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

1.1% 0.8%

08:30

GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (MAY)

Low

2.8% 2.6%

08:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

-0.1% 0.2%

08:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

High

3.0% 2.7%

08:30

GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

High

2.3% 2.2%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (JUN)

Low

250 250

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.0% 0.2%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

Low

3.4% 3.1%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (JUN)

Low

3.4% 3.1%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

0.1% 0.1%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN F)

High

1.6% 1.6%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (JUN F)

High

1.2% 1.2%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (MAY)

Low

16.2B 16.1B

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (MAY)

Low

12.0B 14.9B

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL)

Medium

30.6

09:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (JUL)

Medium

9 8.6

09:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL)

High

40 38.5

12:30

CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (MAY)

Low

1.0% -2.4%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

0.3% 0.1%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

High

1.6% 1.4%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN)

High

1.6% 1.7%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (JUN)

Low

233.267

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (JUN)

Low

233.25 232.95

13:00

USD Total Net TIC Flows (MAY)

Low

$12.7B

13:00

USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAY)

Medium

-$37.3B

13:15

USD Industrial Production (JUN)

Medium

0.003 0

13:15

USD Capacity Utilization (JUN)

Low

0.777 0.776

13:15

USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JUN)

Medium

0.20% 0.10%

14:00

USD NAHB Housing Market Index (JUL)

Medium

51.0 52.0

18:15

USD Fed's George Speaks on Economic Conditions and Agriculture

Low

23:50

JPY Bank of Japan June 10-11 meeting minutes

High

Wed Jul 17

00:30

AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (MAY)

Medium

0.6%

02:00

CNY Conference Board China June Leading Economic Index

Low

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUN F)

Medium

-12.4%

08:30

GBP Bank of England Minutes

High

08:30

GBP Claimant Count Rate (JUN)

Medium

4.5% 4.5%

08:30

GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUN)

Medium

-8.0K -8.6K

08:30

GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/(YoY)) (MAY)

Low

1.4% 1.3%

08:30

GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/(YoY)) (MAY)

Low

1.1% 0.9%

08:30

GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAY)

Medium

7.80% 7.80%

08:30

GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (MAY)

Medium

82K 24K

09:00

CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (JUL)

Medium

2.2

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (MAY)

Low

2.0%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY)

Low

-6.6%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 12)

Low

-4.00%

12:30

CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (MAY)

Low

14.91B

12:30

USD Housing Starts (JUN)

Low

950K 914K

12:30

USD Housing Starts (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

3.9% 6.8%

12:30

USD Building Permits (JUN)

Low

1000K 974K

12:30

USD Building Permits (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

1.5% -3.1%

14:00

CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (JUL 17)

High

1.00% 1.00%

14:00

USD Fed's Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to House

High

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 12)

Low

-9874K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 12)

Low

-2634K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 12)

Low

3038K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 12)

Low

0.002

16:30

USD Fed's Raskin Speaks at Exchequer Club in Washington

Low

18:00

USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

High

22:00

NZD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-1.7%

Thu

Jul 18 00:00

AUD Conference Board Leading Index (MAY)

Low

0.3%

01:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (JUL)

Low

123.9

01:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.20%

01:30

AUD NAB Business Confidence (2Q)

Medium

2

01:30

CNY China June Property Prices

Low

01:30

AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (JUN)

Low

490M

01:30

AUD RBA FX Transactions Other (JUN)

Low

33M

03:30

AUD RBA FX Transactions Govt. (JUN)

Low

05:30

JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Low

2.6%

05:30

JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Low

5.1%

06:00

CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (JUN)

Medium

2.22B

06:00

CHF Exports (MoM) (JUN)

Low

1.7%

06:00

CHF Imports (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.9%

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (MAY)

Low

19.5B

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (MAY)

Low

15.3B

08:30

GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.2% 2.1%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

1.6% 2.1%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.4% 2.1%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

1.8% 1.9%

12:30

CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAY)

Low

0.2%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 12)

Medium

360K

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (JUL 6)

Low

2977K

14:00

USD API Monthly Statistical Report

Low

14:00

USD Fed's Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to Senate

High

14:00

USD Philadelphia Fed. (JUL)

Medium

6.8 12.5

14:00

USD Leading Indicators (JUN)

Medium

0.003 0.001

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 12)

Low

82.0

22:45

NZD Net Migration s.a. (JUN)

Low

1740

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 12)

Medium

¥973.1B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 12)

Medium

-¥14.1B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 12)

Low

¥3.5B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 12)

Low

¥486.9B

Fri Jul 19

EUR G20 Finance Ministers' and Central Bank's Deputies Meeting in Russia

High

EUR G20 Labour Ministers Meeting in Russia

High

EUR G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Russia

High

03:00

NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-0.6%

03:00

NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

2.4%

04:30

JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAY)

Medium

1.2% 0.4%

05:00

JPY Leading Index (MAY F)

Medium

110.5

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (MAY F)

Low

105.9

06:00

EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-0.1% -0.3%

06:00

EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (JUN)

Low

0.6% 0.2%

08:30

GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JUN)

Medium

3.1B

08:30

GBP PSNB ex Interventions (JUN)

Medium

9.0B 8.8B

08:30

GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (JUN)

Medium

9.3B 10.5B

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

0.1% 0.2%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

High

1.3% 0.7%

12:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

-0.3% 0.2%

12:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUN)

High

1.3% 1.1%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.1%

12:30

CAD Core CPI s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.0%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (JUN)

Low

123.0

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