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United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDR EW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets and Trade SUB973998-002 1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 E UROPEAN AND US BUTTER PRICES Jan u ary 1996 - July 1998 5,000 ,-------------------------., 4,000 \--___ .>oOoLL..!oL..'-_ _ ___ _ _ ____ _ _ -#-----i 3,000 ..... '-- ----j 1,000 CD 0) C m J $/MT •••• . ...... - ••• •• •••• -- N. Eur. M pt Fob '- ::J t) '" '- ..... a::> a. a. ::J () « J 0 0) « -, 0 0) C C m m J J EUROPEAN AND US C HEESE PRICES Jan uary 1 996 - July 1998 '- "3 J 4,000 ,-------------------------, . 3,500 1--- - - - --#-----1l-Olfltea€l6- -- - - - - - - - - ----I 2,500 ...... _ __ --- N- . _Eu--'-r._M --.. d ..... p_t _Fo_b _ ----j .... .... '- .. ...... •. CD 0) c m J Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA •• ••• ••

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Page 1: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998

$/MT

Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC,

World Markets and Trade SUB973998-002

1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

EUROPEAN AND US BUTTER PRICES January 1996 - July 1998

5,000 ,-------------------------.,

4,000 \--___ .>oOoLL..!oL..'-_ _ ___ _ _ ____ _ _ -#-----i

3,000 f-----I'----I--------~~lk____#"II. ..... '------j

1,000 CD 0)

C m

J

$/MT

•••• . ...... -• ••• • • •••• • --N. Eur. M pt Fob

'- ::J t) '" '- ..... a::> a. a. ::J ()

« J 0 0) « -, 0 0)

C C m m

J J

EUROPEAN AND US CHEESE PRICES January 1996 - July 1998

'- "3 ~ J

4,000 ,-------------------------,

. 3,500 1---- - - --#-----1l-Olfltea€l6---- - - - - - - - ----I

2,500 \--~_-----::-;J ...... ,-------.~ _ __ ---N-. _Eu--'-r._M--..d ..... p_t _Fo_b_ ----j .... .... '-........•.

CD 0)

c m

J

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

• •• •••••

Page 2: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

For Information Contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign AgriculttrraJ Service

Dairy, Livestock and Poultry Division AG Box 1044, South Agriculture Building, Washington, D.C. 20250- J 044

John J. Reddington, Director TEL: (202) 720-803 I FAX: (202) 720-06 J 7

Analysis Depu~j Director for Analysis

Max F. Bowser .. . ... .. . " (202) 720·]350 Head, Livestock roup

Lisa Hardy-Bass ......... . (202) 720-1 319 Head, Dairy and Poultry Group

Ralph Dutrow ... . . . . ..... (202) 720-7400

Beef Jocl Greeru: .. . ... . .. . . . . . . .. . Monica Castillo

Pork

(202) 720-6553 (202) 720-7285

Nancy Morrison . . . . . . . . . . . . .. (202) 720-8252 uzanne Miller . .... .. ..... . . . (202) 720-7715

Lamb, Mutton, and Goat Suzanne Miller .. . ... . . (202) 720-77 15

Tallow, Lard, Meat and Bone Meal Jose Rivera . . . ..... . .... . ... . (202) 720- 1349

Hides and Skins Jose Rivera . . . .. .. ... .. . .. .. (202) 720-1 349

Poultry Products Nancy Mo gan ............... (202) 720-1 372

Dairy Products Arthur Coffi ng

Beef Cattle, Swine, and Horses

(202) 720-3761

Monica Castillo . ..... .. ...... (202) 720-7285

Dairy Breeding Cattle, Embryos, Semen Monica Casti llo . . . ... .. ... ... (202) 720-7285

Mohair and Wool Furskins Leather

Market Promotion Programs Dairy E ort Incentive Program and

Export Enhancement Program

Marketing Deputy Director for Marketing

Roger Wentzel . . . .. . ... .. (202) 720- 1353 Head, Marketing Programs

Richard Petges . ... .. ... ,. (202) 720-246\

Donald Van de Wer 'en ... .... .. . Debra Pfaff . .. ... . . .. ..... . . . . . .

Donald Van de Werken Debra Pfaff .. .. . .. ... .

(202) 720-1 352 (202) 720-2208

(202) 720-13 52 (202) 720-2208

Willie Brooks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. (202) 720-3690

Willie Broo s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. (202) 720-3690

Anita Regmi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. (202) 720-7066

Vacant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202) 720-4884

Dale Cougot . . .. . ..... .. . . . . . . . " (202) 720·7571

Dale Cougot . .... .... ..... . . . . . .

Mary Ponomarenko .. .. .. . .. . .. . . Barbara Wolff . ... ... . .. . Willie Brooks .... . ... . .. . . ... . . . Willie Brooks . . . .... . . . . . ....... .

SPECIAL AREAS

(202) 720-7571

(202) 720-4455 (202) 720-4456 (202) 720.3690 (202) 720-3690

Richard Petges . .. . .. ...... . . . (202) 720-2461 Pau l Kiendl ... .... . . .. .. ... . . (202) 720-8870

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibi lS discrimination in all its programs and activ ities on the bas is of race , color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disabil ity, political beli<: fs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. ( ot all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program infonnation Braille, large print. aud iotape , etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TOO).

To file: a complaint of discrimination, write USD A, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326·W. Whitten Building, 14' and Independe .ce Avenue, S W., W:;sll ington, DC 20250·9410, or call (202) 720-5964 (voice and TOO). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.

Page 3: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DAIRY: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

Dairy Production and Trade Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

North America ................... . ............... 4 Europe, Asia, Africa ........... . ........ . . . ........ 7 Oceania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Milk and Dairy Products Supply, Demand, and Trade Tables:

Fluid Milk 11 Butter . . ............. . . ...................... , 14 Cheese ..... . ............... . ................. 19 Nonfa Dry Milk ........ . .............. . . . . . . . . .. 24 Whole Milk Powder ........... . ...... . ............ 29

Dairy Price Charts ... . ................ . . . . . .. . ...... . .. 34

Policy and Program Development Highlights ................. . . 39

Exports of Dairy Products from the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 4 1

Supplemental information on Imports . .......... . ....... . . . . 43

3

Page 4: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

Dairy Produc ion and Trade Developments

This update to the 'Dairy: World Markets and Trade' circular is based on reports from 12 leading producers and traders of dairy products and available secondary information. No changes were made in the data for countries not reviewed. That data is presented for consistency and context only.

Summary Cow milk production in selected countries for 1998 is estimated at 384.3 million tons, up marginally from the January forecast, and 1 percent above 1997. Compared to January, the United States and Canada account for most of the change. The estimate of milk cow numbers for 1998 has been rev· sed to 132.2 million head, slightly lower than in 1997.

Butter production in selected countries for 1998 is estimated at 5.2 million tons, up from both the January forecast and 1997. Prospects for butter trade have risen since the January report mainly due to higher shipments from New Zealand. Total 1998 butter exports are still expected to decline from 1997 due in part at least, to the Asian economic crisis. Historical Asian imports can be seen in the "Supplemental Imports" section.

Cheese production ·s expected to exceed 12 million tons in 1998, above the January forecast, and 2 percent higher than revised 1997. Compared to January, the United States, France and Australia account for most of the increase in total production. Export prospects for cheese are also up compared to the January forecast but are marginally below the revised estimate for 1997. Compared to

July 1998

4

1997, estimated 1998 cheese exports from the EU are off 35,000 tons and that decline is largely offset by small increases from other exporters.

Nonfat dry milk production in 1998 is estimated at 3.1 million tons, essentially unchanged from 1997 and the January forecast. Compared to the January forecast, the export potential for NDM is up about 3 percent as prices moved lower and surpluses developed, particularly in the EU and the United States.

North America United States: Milk production in the United States for 1998 is estimated at 71.7 million tons, up less that 0 e percent from the revised 1997 estimate 0[71.0 million tons. Cow numbers continue to fa ll , but a boost in per cow production will allow an overall production increase. Excessive rainfall early in the year hampered milk output in California and hot-dry weather in the southern states has caused some loss of yield potential, particularly in the April-July period. As of mid-1998, milk prices are up with the June Basic Formula Price (BFP) 22 percent above June 1997.

Dairy, Livestock and Poultry Div., FAS, USDA

Page 5: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

For the remainder of 1998, higher milk prices and reduced prices for concentrate feeds should yield favorable milk-feed price relationships providing additional incentives for expanding production. However, uncertainty about supplies of dairy-quality forage plus the need to project prices in a volatile environment may make many producers cautious regarding expansion.

u.s. butter production was down rather sharply during the first half of 1998 while demand for butterfat remained strong. As a result, butter prices rose sharply and set a new record during the second and third quarters of 1998. For the year, butter production is forecast at 505,000 tons, 3 percent below 1997. Butter and anhydrous milkfat exports are reported at 6,200 tons for the first 5 months of 1998 with most of those exports due to contracts made in 1997 when prices were lower. Little additional butter is likely to be exported until prices ease significantly.

u.s. cheese production in 1998 is now estimated at 3.5 million tons, up 3 percent from 1997. This compares with 2 percent growth in 1997. Cheese exports are expected to show modest growth as effective market development efforts offset the higher U.S. pnces.

Production of nonfat dry milk (NDM) during 1998 is estimated at 530,000 tons, 2 percent above the January estimate, but still down from 1997. NDM prices in the United States have been right at support during much of the spring and summer months. In response to low domestic prices, the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) has been very active since the start of the new program year on July 1. The Program is expected to

July 1998

5

continue to be active which should boost NDM exports to 105,000, above the January estimate but still down from 1997.

Additional infonnation on U.S. and Canadian policy developments is presented in the 'Policy and Program Developments Highlights' section.

Canada: Milk production in 1998 is estimated at 8.2 million tons, 1 percent above the revised estimate for 1997. With more milk production, exports of the major dairy products are generally expected to increase.

Based on preliminary data, the 1997/98 dairy year (Aug/July) is expected to show a 1 to 2 percent increase in total Canadian milk production despite a 3-percent cut in the quota for manufacturing milk (MSQ) for the year. A relatively mild winter in Quebec and Ontario, the two leading milk production provinces helped maintain the robust production pace that characterized the fall months. Much of the additional milk, compared to 1997, is expected to be made into cheese and whole milk powder and be exported. Even though milk output was running ahead of the 1996/97 pace (rather than being cut back as called for by the MSQ reduction) on February 1, the official target price for manufacturing milk was boosted 2 percent.

For the 1997/98 dairy year, most analysts expect that production of manufacturing milk will exceed the MSQ by 10 percent compared to a 6 percent excess in 1996/97. At this point, there has been no official word on whether or not the MSQ will be changed for 1998/99.

Dairy, Livestock and Poultry Div., FAS, USDA

Page 6: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

Current calender year forecasts call for 1998 cheese and butter prod uction and export to increase marginally compared to 1997. Success in exporting selected nOD-traditional dairy products has taken some of the pressure offNDM, traditionally he major product used to dispose of surplus milk production. As a result, production and exports ofNDM are expected to be stable in 1998 and that a level that is below recent years.

In addition to traditional products, Canadian exporters have also ODe well with some oth r products. With the reopening of trade, Canadian exports ofbeverag milk to the United States increased from 102 tons in 1995 to 3,658 tons in 1996 and 5,762 in 1997. Nearly all milk exports to the United States are ultra high temperature (UHT) milk moving from the provine of Quebec to P erto Rico

Canadian exports of condensed and evaporated milk have also shown significant ·ncreases. In 1995, 4,000 tons valued at $C 3.2 mil1ion were exported. In 1996, those totals moved to 25,000 tons and $C 41 .0 million respectively, while 1997 trade was report d at 39,000 tons and $C 58.8 million. Major 1997 destinations included Libya and Haiti.

Mexico: Milk utput in 1998 is forecast to increase slightly to 8.0 million tons compared to 7.9 million in 1997. The 1997 estimate has been revised upward since the January release. Some large dairies, particularly in the states of Coahuila and Durango, are adding to their herds but many of the smaller commercial dairies are culling their herds. In most areas of the country, expansion of dairy production is limited by both water and forage supplies.

July 199 8

Mexico's 1998 output of NDM is expected to rerum stable or perhaps increase slightly, as limited milk supplies are utilized in the mor profitable products. Imports of dairy products are expected to continue growing in 1998 as the general economy grows and that country remains well below self sufficiency in dairy products. Imports of powdered milk, particularly nonfat dry milk, are forecast at 125,000 tons, down slightly from 1997. Successful bids by U.S. suppliers in resp nse to a recent Mexican tender for NDM should help the United States increase its mark t share for the year as a whole.

Mexican consumption of dairy products continued to show further recovery in 1997 following 1995's sharp decline due to devaluation of the peso. Cheese conswnption in 1998 is forecast to increase again with the improving economy. Though inlportS ofhlgh quality cheese continue to be small, U.S. cheeses are continu to gain market share.

In addition to traditional dairy products, Mexico is also a major U.S. market for other dairy products. With the recovery in the Mexican economy, fluid milk imports from the U ruted States have also shown signs of rebounding. U.S. fluid milk exports to Mexico dropped from the pre-devaluation level of over 61 million liters, to only 17 million in 1995. Trade increased to 25 million liters in 1996 and 36 million in 1997. Early in 1998 fresh milk trade was down, probably due to the efforts of some Mexican states which banned sales of imported milk. Another con 'buting factor may have been the removal of price controls on fresh milk which likely made it more competitive relative to other uses of domestic milk. The problem of

Dairy, Livestock and Poultry Div. , FAS, USDA

6

Page 7: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

State restrictions on imports of fresh milk has been fully resolved and fresh milk trade is moving normally again.

Additional information on Mexican policy developments is presented in the 'Policy and Program Developments Highlights ' section.

Europe, Asia, Africa European Union (EU): Based on new reports from 6 countries, EU milk production in 1998 is now forecast at 121 million tons, up slightly from the January forecast. Producers' efforts to limit production during the first quarter, in an attempt to remain within the quota, seemed to be less effecti ve this year. Most of the reviewed countries were at or above EU quota for the 1997/98 (AprillMarch) year and are subject to penalties for over-quota production. Cow numbers are expected to continue their long term downward trend as improving productivity allows the quota to be filled with fewer and fewer cows.

On the trade side, EU trade commitments made under the Uruguay Round were under threat in 1997/98 (July/June WTO year) especially for quantitative limits for cheese and 'other' dairy products, (mostly whole milk powder). Though final figures are not yet available, both categories appear to have ended the year with subsidized exports at or above the limits of 384,000 tons and 1,072,000 tons for cheese and other dairy products respectively.

To stay within the export limit for cheese, the EU Commission shifted the structure of subsidies and stopped issuing licenses for several periods during the July/June year.

As part of the farm price package for 1997/98, the EU decided to leave the dairy support system largely unchanged. These are

July 1998

intervention prices for butter and NDM which will stay at ECU 3,282 and 2,055 per ton, respectively. These prices are designed to support the EU's target price for milk. The EU-wide production quota also remains at the 1996/97 level.

EU butter production for 1998 is now estimated at 1.72 million tons, approximately I percent below 1996 and 1997. EU butter exports are expected to decline 3 to 5 percent in 1998 due to weaker international demand. Roughly half of EU butter exports were taken by Russia in 1997.

EU cheese production in 1998 is now estimated at 5.8 million tons, up slightly from the January forecast and the year 1997. In a reflection of the implementation of WTO restrictions on export subsidies to non-EU countries, EU cheese exports are forecast to fall to 449,000 tons, down 35,000 tons from 1997. WTO commitments call for annual reductions of just over 20,000 tons.

French cheese production in 1998 is forecast at 1.7 million tons, only slightly higher than the 1997 level. Rising French consumption is expected to take most of the increase. In the UK, production is expected to remain at the 1997 level, but domestic consumption is forecast to show another healthy increase. Some of the boost in cheese consumption is due to continued fears about the safety of eating beef.

Loss of markets for feta cheese is expected to cause a further fall in Danish cheese exports to non-EU markets. Iran and Egypt were Denmark's principal markets for feta cheese. The decline in exports to non-EU countries as a result of reduced subsidies is making it difficult for Denmark to find alternative markets for its cheese.

Dairy, Livestock and Poultry Div., FAS, USDA

7

Page 8: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NDM production in the EU for 1998 is expected to decline slightly to 1.1 milLion tons. Low profitability of calf fattening throughout Europe has resulted in soft demand for NDM to be used in calf feed . In 1997, 500,000 tons ofNDM was used for calf feed, down from 700,000 tons 1996. Further strengthening of the U.S. dollar relative to EU currencies has enabled EU traders to undercut U.S. prices at times, however intervention buying has been needed to support EU producer prices for NDM. EU exports of NDM in 1998 are forecast at 300,000 tons, 6 percent below 1997. Mexico and Algeria were the EU 's major markets fo r NDM in 1997.

EU production of whole milk powder (WMP) . s estimated to increase less than 1 percent in 1998, to 1.04 mill ion tons. This follows growth of nearly 5 percent in 1997. EU production of WMP is growing as processors switch from drying NDM, which is viewed as having less favorable export prospects. EU exports of WMP are forecast at 547,000 tons in 1998, 2 percent above 1997. Relative to its WTO commitments, EU exports of WMP are part of the ' other dairy product' category which has bumped against it's limit in recent years. The WTO schedule calls for subsidized "other dairy products" to decline by 44,000 tons pe year. Algeria and Saudi Arabia are usually the major markets for EU exports of WMP.

Additional information on European policy developments is presented in the 'Policy and Program Developments Highlights' section.

Algeria: With only a smaJl dairy industry of its own, Algeria needs to import approximately three-fourths of its milk requirements. In addition to it' s limited

July 1998

8

production, operation of it's price control system tends to aid fresh cheese and yogurt production rather than the beverage milk market. This leaves reconstituted dry milk as the major source of beverage for the populace. Based on availabilities and price relationships, Algeria imports either WMP or NDM plus butterfat for reconstitution and sale, typically in one liter packs. Algeria often needs credit or other financial aids to finance its purchases.

For 1998, imports NDM and WMP are forecast at 63,000 tons and 83,000 tons respectively . The forecast for NDM is down fmm 1997 while WMP is essentially stable. These forecasts assume that controlled prices for reconstituted milk will be moved significantly upward which will affect demand. In addition, private traders have been ail owed to import cheese and some other dairy products and that appear to be having a negative impact on the demand for econstituted milk.

Japan: Milk output in 1998 in Japan is forecast at 8.6 million tons, j ust below 1997. The February 1998 cattle inventory showed further contraction of the dairy herd. While milking cow numbers were only slightly reduced from February 1997, the number of replacement heifers dropped 4 percent. The reduction in milk cow numbers contrasts with the Japan Dairy Council 's announced target for production growth of 0.7 percent which the Dairy Council says is needed to help offset growing imports.

On the consumption side, moderate growth is forecast for use of milk for processing, while beverage use declines. Also utilization statistics suggest Japanese consumers are drinking more processed milk at the expense of regular beverage milk. However, much of that trend is merely adding another stage of

Dairy, Livestock and Poultry Div ., FAS, USDA

Page 9: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

processing to make the product more desirable. Popularity of flavored milk and increasing sales of non-fat and low fat milk, calcium-enriched milk, and drinking yogurt (all considered to be processed milk) continued to grow in 1 997 and that trend is expected to continue in 1998.

Japan's cheese imports are expected to continue a pattern of steady growth in 1998, rising to 176,000 tons, 3 percent above 1997. In recent years, the U.S. share of the Japanese cheese market has been increasing, though Australia, with 38 percent of the market, remains the major supplier. Total cheese consumption exceeded 200,000 tons in 1997, but per capita use is still very low when compared to countries with similar income levels.

With somewhat more milk available for processing, imports ofNDM declined in 1997 and may sink again in 1998. Imports ofNDM in 1998 are forecast at 65,000 tons, down from the 75,000 ton level of the last two years.

Japanese ice cream production in 1997 is reported to have declined 23 percent, leading to an increase in imports. Japanese trade data indicate that 30,000 tons of ice cream were imported in 1997 and that the United States held 44 percent of the market. U.S. premium blends are very popular with consumers in Japan.

Oceania Australia: Milk output in 1998 ( actually July-June 1997/1998) is estimated at 9.6 million tons, 3 percent above 1997. Cow numbers are estimated at 1.98 million head, up even more that the production increase. Favorable prices relative to other enterprises in recent years have given producers the

July 1998

9

incentive to expand their herds. The 1997/98 dairy year started with good seasonal conditions in major production regions, but turned to excessively dry in January and February. As a result of the dry weather, monthly production increases dropped sharply below those from early in the season. The expansion in milk cow numbers puts Australia in line for another increase in 1998/99.

The majority of the increase in 1998 milk production will again be directed to manufacturing. The production of all manufactured dairy products, except for whole milk powder, is estimated to increase during 1997/98. Except for non-fat dry milk, the export volume of major dairy products is expected to show an increase during 1997/98.

When final data are released, average manufacturing milk prices are expected to be down 4 percent compared to 1996/97. A 12-percent decline was registered last year. These declines are due to reduced returns on export markets. The continuing economic crisis affecting much of Asia may mean even more serious problems in 1998/99 since that region takes 70 percent of Australia's dairy exports.

New Zealand: New Zealand's fluid milk production in the 1997/98 season (June/May) increased just over 1 percent to 11.6 million tons, well below the near 10 percent average of the past 2 years. An EI Nino caused drought was one of the reasons behind the slower growth. On a total milksolids basis, production moved from 882,000 tons in 1996/97 to 893,000 tons in 1997/98.

In recent years, much of New Zealand's production expansion had been driven by a steadily increasing national dairy herd brought about by conversions of many beef/sheep

Dairy, Livestock and Poultry Div., FAS, USDA

Page 10: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

farms to dairying. In 1997/98 under many new cooperative regulations, the increased costs of processing additional milk must be paid in the form of higher fees by those bringing forth the extra production, no matter whether they are new entrants to dairying or just farmers expanding their production. These significant new costs plus expectations of a lower New Zealand Dairy Board (NZDB) payout took away much of the incentive to either expand an existing herd or to start a new dairy fann .

The 1997/98 final NZDB payout to farmers has been set at $NZ3.00 per kg milksolids, a decline of 6 percent compared to the previous season which in tum, was down 12 percent. The main factor behind the lower payout was lower international dairy prices. In contrast to the two previous years, the New Zealand dollar depreciated against major currencies but the NZDB was hedged against foreign exchange fluctuations with the result that dairy farmers saw little benefit from the depreciation.

The NZDB's payout will be "topped up" with an additional payment from individual dairy cooperatives. Top-up payments normally vary considerably across the dairy cooperatives which supply the dairy products to the Board for export.

For example, in 1995/96 Alpine Dairy, a small cooperative in the South Island, paid no additional top-up, while the industry's dominant cooperative, New Zealand Dairy Group, paid an additional $NZO.50 per kg of milksolids.

July 1998

10

For the 1997/98 season, the two cooperatives that now account for three-quarters of production are expected to add ' top-up' payments in the $NZO.50 to $NZO.70 per kg of milk solids range. For 1998/99, the NZDB is predicting a 5 to 10 percent boost in its payout but there likely will be an increase in variability between cooperatives due to the new payment system. (See policy section).

Based of the first three quarters of the year, dairy trade estimates for 1997/98 season, reveal large volumes being sold despite the slow growth in milk production. On the strength of further large butter sales to Russia, butter exports are estimated to be only 3 percent below last year's record .

Cheese exports for 1997/98 are estimated at 240,000 tons, just above the 1996/97 level. For the first three quarters of the year, Japan and the EU were leading markets while the United States, Australia, and Russia made up a second tier of important markets.

Exports of non-fat dry milk powder dropped to 200,000 tons in 1997/98, 7 percent below the year earlier level. For New Zealand, the economic difficulties in Asia hurt the market for this commodity more severely than markets for butter or cheese. Overall sales of whole milk powder are also expected to show a decline for the year, but only in the 2 to 3 percent range.

Additional information on policy developments in New Zealand is presented in the 'Policy and Program Developments Highlights' section.

Dairy, Li vestock and Poult ry Div., FAS, USDA

Page 11: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA

Canada

Mexico

Unlled States

1993

1,223

6,480

2.m

MILK COW NUMBERS SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1 .000 H£AD)

1994

1,224

6,480

~

1995 1996

1,244 1,237

6,440 6,440

MSl! 2.16.l.

1998

1,253 1,242

6,500 6,600

USB 2J.1S s@t~tM ) .:.·";:,:}r:-::::: ___ .::~:/:::::<:::.,,:,::,:)::::: . :::\: it&~:}::::::::· J7i~AA :: -"., ·-.tJJl}._::.:Jr:: .. : )t;ij~ :: 11;oH: .. ··:·,· .. '. :· jM.ii

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Peru

Venezuela

Siill!NtM <·( ---

EUROPEAN UNION

Austria

Belgium-Luxembourg

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

'@'ii[iit*l~?:::(::H:i :::; ..

WESTERN EUROPE

SWitzerland

$J~:ii~lIJj:::),:::>:/ .

EASTERN EUROPE

Poland

Romania

~4",To~(·::t::

FORMER SOVIET UNION

Russia

Ukraine

~~jj:'T*~~ :

SOUTH ASIA

India 11

s.~ii.t~@i<

2,200

18,000

740

553

1.6lI ': kl~:,: ::::":::

818

792

708

423 4,674

5,365

233

1,262

2,317

2,300

17,500

760

563

62ll -· k'M);J ·

804

754

699

415 4,615

5,301

230

1,274

2,287

2,350

17,500

770

580

6.6ll ~MiilJ

747

720

703

413

4,754

5,273

210

1,269

2,167

1,747 1,698 1,709

381 375 368

1,360 1,379 1,351

490 490 482

U12 UJ..& l.lli .;:-:,::-.:.:;::.::: : ..... :ll;ij9'::: .. :::"'::·;:·/ @i;~~i .. ·· . ::,(:,:' @~J.M ·:·:·:-:

4,111 3,866

LSJll L1&Q . J@if::: ':.:: ~;~

152 -, .' ~;>~ij}}:.

'.,::

3,715

LlllI : :~~~~~: -

2,300

17,100

720

553

6118 ~';l81 __

698 682

7\2

399 4,672

5,229

205

1,267

2,100

1,664

366

1,350

2,400

17,220

725

575

6llO ii;$-lir :: :

689

660

670

393 4,562

5,195

200

1,272

2,100

1,660

364

1,300

2,500

17,300

730

600

/illS _ihh$

668

645

665

390 4,453

5,091

198

1,268

2,050

1,650

362

1,300

466 473 454

lJ.Jfi lJ..SO UlD .. :,,#~@ >+::(::::m::::#l~(:':/: ::\:::: :jj#iAj¥

ill : 1~t

3,442

l.TI!i : Mi~ ::.:

ill --- 7111,:::(\/;

3,550

Llli sMII

NIl i40

3,600

J..1QJl

MM'

20,243

8JIS1 :::.::::.~ : f/:;.' ',:' " ::;"::'::' t{fi~.~~ ··

19,800

l!JI1lI 18,400 17,450 16,200 15,500

: .' if,~?i:): :

J.lJ!IHI ll.SllO :::~j;il®::n:;t'l : i(;iioi) .:. ::.

.. -. i~ ,.:::: •• ::h':::}~::·:"::::5:· 'J~ ? {i. ~

JJJIOO :ji@"::':':"

JJ.5Dll :·::jj$AA( :: :.'

~ J5JllIlI . .... " M~lAAl n:\ (:·t, . ' lMO(j

1,715 1,885 2,138 2,552 2,600 2,650

lJlM LllSl 1.!IY LOJS 1JI.U lJIM

ASIA

China

Japan

~@Jj¢~t ~: . .- :'}".::":;:::::j;::'::<'»:: :::::?:/ ::(}:::JV •• ~~1:AA'::::(}:: . ~;~M::::::().:; ·•·.· .. ':·:)~~# ::;:··) ·}<r < }~( :;::(j?I:::: ~M~ ••• '\ ; :;:-:.:-.:¥.1~

OCEANIA

Australia 21

New Zealand 31 s~~j~tA ::· ..

TOTAL

(P)- preliminary

(I) - forec:ul

llYe.ar bealnnlnK April I of the year sbown.

lIYe.ar tndlnll June 30 of the year shown.

JlYeu endlna May 31 of tbe year shown.

1,760

l.lli .::.:: •• ::::::.::: :it;:::.:::f:i:":::::: '¥;ijJ ?"

135,370

1,762

UOlI iJi~ij) :: -::-- .

134,948

II

1,786 1,822 1,88-4 1,981

;tm llS..l JJ.6Il J.l1lI : a~1~, ;:::.: •. ::(· M,W~:tj:.ftt:tj# @J~ \ •... ........ ·:::)4~r

134,858 133,241 132,377 132,233

SOI.J'RC8; COUNSELOR/AITACHe REJ"OftTS. OfflCIAL STA nmes.

Page 12: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTII AMERICA

Canida MeIico

Uolted States

SllbToul

SOUfB AMERICA

ArgenUnl Brazil ChIle Peru Venezuela

Sub70tal

EUROPEAN UNION

Austria BeJglllm-Lulembourg

Denmar(1 Finland Fnnce Germany Greece Ireland Italy

Portugal Sp.a.ln

Sweden United KJnedom

SabTOUil ,

WESTERN EUROPE

Switzerland

S#bTotal

EASTERN EUROPE Poland

Romania . .

SUbTotal

FORMER SOVIET UNION Russia UkraIne

Sub·Totl)

1993

7,500

7,634

... . ..... .... . ~ ' B3~(j1

7,400

16,250

1,700

630

L6SS '" '' ", , 1.7,63!

3,237

3,liU

4,661

2,494

25,049

28,080

752

5,529

10,400

10,953 1,453

6,130

3,287

~

.. ' ll.o.~

12,650

~ 17;m

46,300

W11 ":64;617,

COWS MILK PRODUCTION SELECTED COUNTRIES

(\ ,000 METRIC TONS)

1994

7,759 1,547

WDl ~998

7,800

16,700

1,800

641

LJ.S2 .~ .

1995

7,920 7,399

1D.S.IlO. ,~;at9. ,

8,500

18,375

1,905

665

L3lllI ··· ·30,745,

3,245 3,Il6

3,607 3,645

4,641 4,673

2,510 2,473

25,322 25,413

21,866 28,621

150 690

5,598 5,655

10,365 10,500

10,964 11,294

1,485 l,li80

5,900 6,000

3,357 3,143

.... H.2ln. H.2lllI UQ,530 · · :ht~7jJ3<,

3..2lO. J.2J6 , 3,910 ,: 3,936

11,822 11 ,420

s.ns 5.88S "~037 ,17j(iS ::

42,800 39,300

18J.J.8 .L2,.l81 " ~38 ~6,.481

JlJl.QJl. 3l.5Dlt " ...

SOUTH ASIA

India 11

SIl~:r.OtAl ,. ':"" , . .. . .. . . . . ... .. - ... ... . . .. . .. ": -' .::

lMlllI , 30;600 '··· 31,0'00 12,!OO

ASIA China

Japan

~bJ)~"1 ,.

OCEANIA

Australia 2/

New Zealand 3/ 50Thul

(P) - pftllmllury (I) - rOn:ea1 l/1/ur b~lmrlnlAprU I ofth. yQuho VYtat odin, J ...... 30 of til. y r !ho ..... W_ adlnl Moy 31 of tho yur sho..".

4.990

. . . B.m iJ,611'

7,530

lI.1.lS

5,288

8488 13.676

8,300

Ul2 J*,~~l' . .... ' .

12

5,164

8J.8l ' : ,: 14,.146

8,433

2.6&4 '~~l.n :'

380,

1996 ) 1997

7,890 8,100 1,586 7,8!10

6U1l 1l.Q3S.

.85,44'1 ':' . . ' 86,98S

8,900 9,200

19,480 20,600

1,982 2,140

130 195

UlIl lJ.Sll )i~lU :n,885

3,004 3,090 3,655 3,645 4,695 4,633

2,431 2,460

25,083 24,957

28,776 28,700

685 680 5,677 5,614

10,800 10,600

11,013 11 ,100

1,730 1,780

5,900 5,900

3,319 3,303

HMO l.Ul!l , ,

·· 121,408 h1,291

l8S.6 J.MQ J.8~6 . . .. 3J1:fO

11,690 11,980

5A8B 5.SlllI. .... ",,178 n.l80 •

35,700 33,000

lAJlllll lUlI.ll .... 51;700. :0: \::::':' 47,60il •

3J.SlllI 34.sD.Il :h~oo 3~OO .

6,296 6,650

8MZ 8Ml 14,953 15M~ . .

8,957 9,307

~ ll.SJllI .. 19J:Ci'% ... . <: l"6;S0'i

( 1998

8,200 8,000

'Zl.6Sll . ~7;8S(J

9,100

11,800

1,270

870 1JJl.Q

·1$;810

3,040

3,600

4,625

2,480

24,700

28,700

680

5.634

10,500

11,400

1,770 5,900

3,303

WSJ) 110,982

3.8.4.0 . 3',8~~

11,200

5.3llQ

l1,soo

33,000

lJJllllI ~;006

7,000

a.s:ro. 15.57"9'

9,609

1.1MIl It.z..9

Page 13: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA Canada Mexico United States

~#Wt4#~ \: <,::;::' .)"':{:: .. SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina Brazil Chile Peru Venezuela ~f{¥~~~t:r:~~U[ ::::":::> ,' .... -.

EUROPEAN UNION Austria Belgium-Luxembourg Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom

~#:bjjiQl~k:::H:} ::: : ,: ,

WESTERN EUROPE

:.:.-.'.

FLUID MILK CONSUMPTION SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1,000 METRIC TONS)

1993 1994 1995

2,790 2,840 3,260 3,300

z.6.illi l6.6.S.l ",/::::: :J~~{ ':'< MA1.$~o:: }t

2,851 3,357

Z6.ill A~~~j

- ....

1,600 8,100

365 210 l6J

\~9~ "

1,104 768 570 707

4,471 7,380

865 665

4,100 1,974

760 4,200 1,412

1.ill :: ,}J6;U$.;j:·

2,000 8,650

379 211

ill ''' q14~t

1,129 776 564 699

4,391 5,770

870 674

3,950 1,726

815 4,385 1,398

. 1.lJlIl .. ::" ,\ltJJ;lI:'l'.<,:::·,···'·': ";::

2,100 11,025

399 216

lllll t~~40 ,

1,246 716 569 678

4,426 5,815

870 674

3,709 1,723

755 4,350 1,394

1.llll : jM.$~: :}:::

2,824 3,412

26.82ll 3.i;t~~:':.,:

2,140 11,400

410 488

l8ll, 14,~18 :

) 1997

2,820 3,553

16.ill .'.' 33~f1;)

2,180 12,100

420 520 ill

15j~ '.",

1,251 1,252 700 695 570 571 761 745

4,363 4,000 5,802 5,700

860 860 679 676

3,704 3,715 1,701 1,791

695 636 4,284 4,280 1,414 1,407

1.llll lim :: ·: .. ::,.' ~~;9S4::@i:::::, ·t~@8:::::> .

( 1998

2,820 3,600

~ ,··,,:,.,~3;129·

2,220 12,800

428 562 ill

16j$

1,252 690 568 730

4,000 5,700

860 677

3,615 1,800

641 4,285 1,400

6J.SlI :J~ili~

Switzerland 1.Il6 W 1lll Ii91I 100 ~##!9~~F\f:m:, ,., '.'.'", , ::'3:tM :.:·}:;:/::: · .. · ··: iW ))f:;): , "j 02?:::-::<+:;;':,: ::,: '~,~~,.:::,<::,)? ht::::"Lt.~:

EASTERN EUROPE Poland 6,265 6,040 5,781

4JI.QS 5,829

4JWI Y ~;M1::;:"

5,644 5,630 Romania 3AOll 3.1M l.12Q JMll

' #)l:lft~V ? .. ,,'.:., .....' :} >:,:::'/>:i: '.\/::';:,::}' .•. : ::::t.?~~,f ':' ,,:::i,. ::: @n"Y' " , , ::::; " M~ :' "'.' '. 9~~l':'·... ", ,;,:::::9~~~

FORMER SOVIET UNION Russia Ukraine

$liWt4~:r::?'

SOUTH ASIA

15,000

J.2.Oll :":?' ;;',;:,:: ;:", ',::::,: .'. ',:' '",.:.::::}~t~;90b

15,373 14,625 14,300 14,000

l.8lll 3.Silll UlIll l.B.OlI. ·"'. 19;jJ3' ':'\ "\:~$;125 .. " ... ' ,/\( j1;$99 ): : t/:\: I~'&~::":( .

I ndla II llIJI.OD WOlI l8.SllJl lll.SlI.!l J.lJIQll $#'!i':t.¥i'~ ::.", ..... :::::: ;.:;':;.~(;::;:;«:'}:::::::;:t:'r:.::\,:;~\:<n;.l:l® k<.::"";"':: :~7;$O~::\·: ?\:,: :·: ~l!.'~lW:;·;:- ... " "':' :3b$~~ :: .:}::::'::\' qi;1l,\lq, ::::::::

ASIA Cblna Japan $Wt#~f; ::, ,)':;)'\\

OCEANIA Australia 21

3,118

SJllJ. tti ,.;}:)i:r:tf:f(::::i-::\/ ii . +:t.~~U :j;:;

3,338 S,lJ8

,··.:: ~~t~ rr:

1,827 1,856

~ ill

3,510 3,928 4,143

s.ill. s.181 SJ.S6 W.M} ;:':::n .. :)M)~:',:::',Hn:g~ :

1,879 1,958 1,988 ~

14,000 l.6QD

(~;§09

3J.JI.Q!l ;.):,:,:::.~

4,495

SJl2S :?(:.,~

:@:;:::::::}\H':,:: · •• ,;:::t':f: : /t ~tF}:::/:;:,.·; f·.##.tj.: " ,:~:::.,: . . ... :: ~~ . .::,/. l~'r ~:~}\~:t.·:;::::-:.·.

1,978

~ V11

TOTAL (P) - preliminary (I) - rorteall IN .... bqlDalDl April I or til. yoar aho ..... . lIYar n"llDlll1D& 30 .r til. year Ibo ..... . lIY .... _I May 31 or til. yoar Ih .....

146,946 146,691

13

149,108 151,860 152,631 154,136 SOlfRCE.: COUNSELORII\TTACHE REPORTS. 0fFlCW.. STI\T1STJCS,.

Page 14: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

BUITER PRODUCTION SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1.000 METRIC TONS)

1993 1994 1995 1996 ( ) 1997 1998

NORTH AMERICA

Canada 83 88 93 93 89 90

Multo 22 22 2Z 13 15 15 UnIted States ill s.sa ill 531 ill Sll5

~t¢:r«!~L 10J 698" ::,688 639 ~76 "" " ~V~

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 36 43 51 52 56 65

Brazil 6S 6ll 6S 1Il 12 14 SnbTotal 101 . .. - . .. .. . .. . 103 116 lU 11& 139

EUROPE lINTON

Austria 43 42 42 42 42 42

Belglnm-Luxembourg 73 73 91 87 85 85

Denmark 59 59 54 56 50 49

Finland 54 54 53 54 SO 54

Fran~ 444 444 453 462 466 470 Germany 480 461 486 480 462 443

Greece 7 6 6 5 5 Ireland 135 136 150 150 148 143

Italy 73 77 81 81 81 81

Netherlands 184 159 132 112 134 136

Portugal 17 17 19 21 23 12

Spaln 25 19 25 23 20 20

Sweden 39 32 28 30 33 33 U nited Kingdom ill ill U!l ill 1J9. ua

$.jr~r<itll1 " '

' r.~8$ i.7.~3 ' ;: 1 ,!~9 ,';13~ " . ...... " '

j ;7::U 1,7"~

WESTERN EUROPE

Switzerland III fi ~ ~ !lO ~ "

S~Toi.1 38 ~1 42 ,',040 40 , , 42

EASTERN EUROPE

Poland 180 160 163 160 176 I~ I Romania ~ II 16 II II SobJ'otat ", ,; J9t : .... In i7~ , 113 188;; 19J

fORMER SOVIET UNION

Runla 732 488 419 290 250 250 UkraIne ill l~ ill l.6l ill lllI ~b7T~lai 1;044 741 638 )~S.3 ~70 '; 360

NORTH AFRICA Egypt S 2 6 2 B. Ii

.. ub.~~~l", ' ';.';',".' 5 , 7 6 7. ' " 8 , ~

SOUTHEAST ASIA

India I f LUll UlllI LJ!lO MO.Il M2D ~ " "

"

..... I.HO ,." SUb~a,1 " 1>200 *,300 ~,~OO 1,4rO ' ' t$40

ASIA Japan 1llJl 8Jl 28 8S 82 SA

"

abTo(al ,', ..... :.' lorc ,; 80 , 78 85 , ' 87 86 . . . . "

OCEANIA Australia 2f 131 147 138 153 154 160 Ne Zealand 3f ill m l8Jl llli 3lD ill

ful~ Tot.l , "

462 414 407; 444 4l~ ',. 474

TOTAL 5,493 5,221 5,215 5,123 5,129 5.m -p I ry SOURCE: CtXlNSUDRIA TT ACHE REPORTS, OFFlClAl. ST ",nsrtCS.

(I). forecut FASlCMPlDlAP IIY ... r b .. tnDlDC AprU I of the yur sbown. lIVe .. rndtnc JUDe 30 of the ye .. Ibown, 14 3IY .. r <lidia, MIY 31 of the y .. r Iho..."

Page 15: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA

Canada

Mexico

United States

s~ijirhl~~::HiJ:.::::.:!

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina

Brazil

s'Ji:ji~~r ·

EUROPEAN UNION

Austria

Belgium-Luxembourg

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Netherlands Portugal

Spain

Sweden

United KIngdom : ~6rM;;('?(:i)··::;·:t::: .. ..

WESTERN EUROPE

Switzerland

~~tm~:r"

EASTERN EUROPE

Poland

Romania

FORMER SOVIET UNION

Russia

1993

82 40

40

41 59 30 37

478 556

13 14

100 58 14 17 20

BUTTER CONSUMPTION SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1,000 METRIC TONS)

1994 1995

82

1996 ( ) 1997 1998

84 79 80 84 40 29 31 35 36

Sl8 ill Sll6 Sll6 ",: 649:)/:\,.).'::":' .' <lilt::::i?,';\'/' ,::,::::' ·.610.·······\/:;)::: }Kti

43 42 45

10 &1 ~ "::. ·.:;; n:} {o:>;:;· :i~~ ::j::>·::·: : .. . n$ ..

41 55 28 36

498 560

12 14

100 70 16 17

42 61 27 35

498 581

12 14

100 58 16 16

41 62 22 33

479 593

12 14

100 59 16 16

20 18 15

46 an

............. . l~~ )':;::;:\ (: :::

41 58 30 32

532 578

13

14 100 60 17 16 13

48 &1

!ii~

41 56 30 30

525 580

13

15 100 58 16 16 12

ill ~:~:i~j~'~~X;l~:~~~~[~~;:f:~:~:~! :'.':'.

ill lIllI. ill : ~ij¢jf':m?::t·/::t· . j;§}j: :;::::/: '?i· i;6~6'

ill .': '!~~jj;))!::.:/

ill ::t:··l,~

172 164

859 667

145 160

~

.':. 3:X ~~

169 171 1.4 15

1$»>· ; ::':'l#

570 483 510 Ukraine 182 ill ill 6S SS s~)b!~@ : );:::: J:. i/ o: .. ...... :: : .•• :::::::':-"::::.- ::::; : .•• • : .::::b::::it!;ffl. ::::: ;:;::.d{~ :.:':: }.:~:··· ,··:#w@:::r.:::·:m::; M~r:'·::6?).}t::: :~'.'::!:::::::::::':.:.:.

NORTH AFRICA

S~(~~~t J::::?// ;:/ >.::.::: .. ::::i:U:: :'}: ;:.::;:;{:::;./:·.i ':itr::·::::::IU:·· ~ C:: .. :. 58 ....AA

·:Qt}.:';::.: :::::.;: .• :.}: ".: :<~

SOUIllEAST ASIA

India 11 $Mif~Fi>t ::=:".:;}, \;::j;\:=:; ::::UUU· ::::;:::.:tW~ ? b::';::.': (i~:{.;:;:,

ASIA

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

~ . ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ i:: : ...... .. :..... ,,,.:;: ,{"" :.::: .::: @~i:.{?)i!{::::::'J9t. · :.H?/::; .\·::·.: H~n ::"},:':':::.i.:i:) •• :'~:''''. ··,.;:;::L:.: '·:;": M)' .::;::,:.::r 3tt ' .:

5,169 5,109 4,9~ 4,823 4,922 5,006 SOURCB; COUNSaOR/ATTACHE REPORTS. 0FFIcw.. STATlSTICS.

(I) - rOf"OQOl I/Y .... bqbuIbIl April 1 orth. yur ala." ... lIY .... nodIDl J .... 3O.r the yoar aIao ..... , 15 3IY .... ...tbol May 31 .r tho year ala ......

Page 16: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

BUTTER IMPORTS SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1 ,000 METRIC TONS)

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 (f) 1998

NORTH AMERICA

Canada I 0 3 3 3

Medeo 18 18 7 18 24 20

United StatCll 1 1 2 5 S .. .. lJ):

~I!b 1'911. "' :;~ ... .... J, .. .. ... :Ill 26 32 33

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina 2 2 I 0 I 0

Brazil S 10. J..(i lJ): 8 1 11 . 17 .. .

" ~. '7 abToW 7 19 ..

IEUROPE AN UNION (Ex. lufnl-trade)

AuUrla 0 0 0 0 0 0

~lglum·LUUJDbour 3 0 I 0 0 Denmark 0 0 1 2

'* Finland 0 0 0 0 0

FnlDu 5 8 )0

Gumany 1 0 3 S 5 5

Greece 0 0 0 0 0 0

Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0

lIaly 0 I I I 1

Netherlands 5 3 4 8 7 7 Portugal 0 0 0 0 0 0

SpaIn I 1 1

Sweden 0 0 0 0 0

Unlted KJngdom 55 66 6.5 6S. ts ts SUt!.T9~.1 .~5 1.4 18 : ~8 71 70

WESTERN EUROPE

Swl&urland Ii 3. 3. J. 4 1

~Il~. J.o~.! . 6 .. J 3. 3 A 3

EASTERN EUROPE

Poland 9 3 0 0 6 6

RomanIa 1 4 1 1 1 !l SubTotal 11 7 l .

..

1 8 10 ...

FORMER SOYJET UNION Ruula 162 151 241 11 3 275 275 Ukraine 1 10 S 1 1 1 .....

~.~T9tllL 1~9 161 246 U4 2711 278

NORTH AFRICA

Ecpt ~ SlI ~ Sll 511 52 ... .... Sll~r-9tal ' 34 Sf) 49: 50 51) 51

SOUfHEAST ASIA

Indli ll II 2 S Z 5 10 SabToW ' 0 ~ :.5 . 2 5: to

ASIA JapliD 1 1 1 1 .1 1 .... ... .

SllbTotal .. ~ . .. . 1 I .. J l

OCEANlA AlUlraJla 21 2 2 4 6 4 3 New Zealand 31 II II 0. il Jl II

SubTotal 1 2 4 6 " ... 3

TOTAL 317 338 414 301 462 467 (P) • pnlfmlnuy SOtJ"RCE: COl»l.::.EU1R1A !TACHE REPORTS, OFFlCIAL ~TAnsnCS,

(fl · (.recut FASlCMPIOt.&.P IIY_ f1: lnnln& Aprll I .f Ih. yur . hown. VY_ clldlnl Jun. 30 .r lb. year ,bo,"" 31Ya:r etldl.al ~1ay 31 ofth. yur tho .....

16

Page 17: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA

Canada

Mexico

United States

1993

BUTTER EXPORTS SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1 ,000 METRIC TONS)

1994 1995

6 2 6

1996 )1997 (f) 1998

13 12 13 o 0 0 0 0 0

ill ~ M ~ ~ W < Miimfr: '::;""-- -::,),U~(';V::} '.: •••••••• , •. -- ....... .. . . ...... .:) i::i~i<~ .nr ~{ -:, __ }:%~?; @::::r:\::;:" 9if)\{??:: ::::.,;:::.: (# :;::::::,::[;::;:{U M:::}!:::··;·:::_._.:·::'::lf:[\.:.:,:#

SOlITH AMERICA

Argentina

Brazil

EUROPEAN UNION (Ex. Intra-trade)

Austria

Belgium-Luxembourg

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece Ireland

Italy

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

~Th~P - /?

WESTERN EUROPE

Switzerland

0 10 15 17 33 22 0 5 0

88 0 0

20

3 32 34 16 20 23 19 19 19 4 26 0 0

14 9 0 0

56 46 0 I 4 0 8 6

ti ,:::Jiji7

" h'tii" • • }.:/.t •. ~\,." ."Yu:t %:,':!r.j:='\·(·::::::n:'::::?u.:::. r:: !~ fi"':.</H:::):/tit}lj {.?}.

EASTERN EUROPE

Poland

Romania &~b)tb~~trt:_ ::~>: .

FORMER SOVIET UNION

Russia

~".H~r~I~~, '" . JFI))(~l

NORTH AFRICA

Egypt

~~~t~~t

SOUTHEAST ASIA

India 11

$.:i~:tj)t.l '·,t:t:.:>:r::>·,

ASIA

Japan

~~~i~f ' OCEANIA

Australia 21 New Zealand 31

)ffi ·t&~t :":;::):::. ". TOTAL (P) - p ... Umlnary (I) - forecut IIY .. r bttiDnlD, April I afCb. year mown. 2IYear endia.& JaDe 30 ofthe yur shown. 3IYear mdlDl May 31 aflh. year .baWll.

o

1

78 ill

7 5

II 6.2 , .) j)} ,.:, {'·'-'·:·':··'74. "

94 lli

··:t ~~iL

678

17

85 ill

671

;:t?« ::::::::::::::-: :.;.:: ...... .

0 18 21 13

46 12 0

24 0

30 I 2 4 S

a'i~ '\':::'(" '0

5 2.S

0 38 21 0

34 25 0

19 0

34

2 10 1lI

'.:;:' ~jj

5

1.0

12 o

t.~

o 29 20 o

35 17 o

18 o

50

2 10 II

.~:'; ..•.•. :. ····;··(}] 05·

o """"""-':::- '0'

14 o

-"'''-:'-':'-:'-'- V~·

, ..... , " 100 '"::<.'::::.' 75 :<>'

o - "'(::i:··:'>iit;.:,::,,:

75 llH

'--·f'.: jX~ :'

641 764 745 SOURCE: COU'NSElORIA IT ACHE R.EJ>ORTS, OFFICIAL ST A nmcs.

Page 18: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

BUITER ENDING STOCKS SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1 ,000 METRIC TONS)

1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 NORTH AMERJCA

Canada 6 8 14 13 14 14 Mulco 0 0 0 0 4 United SfIIlet ill J.6 2 Ii !l 8

SJl~ .To(ll .. Jl7: .. ... ..44 · ll ::· . l~ 11,:: . lS

SOUTH AMERICA

Arltlltfna 7 8 8 9 16 21

Bnzil 0 0 Q n Q 0

SubTOUJ 7 3 8: : . .. ..... .. 9.. t6 21 ..

EUROPEAN UNION

AlDtrl. 4 :1 2 3 3 3 Iklglum-Luxen!bourg 8 6 20 5 5 Denmark 0 0 0 0 0 0 Flnlaod 6 1 1 :1

Fraote 20 22 24 28 15 15 Germany 15 14 39 18 12 10

Greece 2 2 2 2 2 2 Ireland 86 61 61 80 78 72

italY 23 26 36 SO 58 58 Netberlandll 37 21 18 20 26 23 Portugal 2 :1 0 0 0 0 Spain 41 18 9 4 1 0

Sweden 1 5 1 0 0 1

United Kingdom lit 2ll .. 11 8 Ii II

!:lt4l.'Io.",l.: .. J79 ~O , 208 234 ... "do , ~O2

WESTERN EUROPE

SW/lUrlaod 5 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ... . ... 4 SIlb. .T.I)taL 5 4 .. 4 4

EASTERN EUROPE Poland 17 8 16 3 3 4

Romania 1 1 Q 1 1 1 Sub Tata] 19 10

--",

16 ~ 4 5

FORME SOVlET UNIO N

RlIJsla 75 40 125 40 50 45 Ukraine 11 U 1 5 1 1 S~b-T~~

" ."'.' ..

40 ii6:' 4& 75 45. . 53

NORTBAFRICA Egypt II Il Q .0. {} 0

Sub-Total tl 0 0 C" 0 0 ............ .. ...

SOUTHEAST ASIA LDdJa II Q {} Q Q n 0

SII"':'£olal ,,0 ... . l). , .. . .. , .... l) ....... ~ j) 0

ASIA

Japan Sl !U 18 U 2ll l8 Sub Total :. .·,· .k .28

. .. " :"; " ,": ' .. 20

..

5~ ... "12 18

OCEANIA Aust ralia 2J 17 9 33 24 IS New Zealand 31 ill lli ill. lD1 SO

SabjOUJ 134.: . U8 . .. .... J:~9.: 1i5 95 ... ..

701 48% 531 496 459 418 ) - prdlmlalry SOURCE: COUNSELOR/A TT "CHD REPORTS, OFFICIAL ST A m'"T1CS.

(I)-r.~ FASlCMPIDLAP

ItY...,. fl lDnlnc April 1 .f Ibe year .b.wn, W ear t DdID& June J O .flh. yur Jbo .... , JIY ...... dIDI Miy 31 of lb. · .. r .hown.

18

Page 19: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA

Canada Mexlto UnIted States

1993

271

CHEESE PRODUCTION SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1 .000 METRIC TONS)

1994

282 118 116

1995 1996

277 289 116 110

226l Jll.Y 3.Llli ll14

) 1997 (f) 1998

329 330 112 115

·;;;;;ij·;.t::> .... ',::; ) ::::t"H';::· :,:::::: ':: : :):r;: ~,$(i ( :,::/\\ai4~ ':: ;::':: ~~~):;:::·:::::t\::·/·: d;~#( :·; ~. 1.46ll

:·:·:·;·;·f:·:::;:·~~1~}!< . :\:::=: "';: :?:;l~~

SOUTH AMERICA Argentina

Brazil Venezuela

::::i~:1.~~r/ )f,::)i:;: :::::;:' "

EUROPEAN UNION

AustrIa Belgium-Luxembourg Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden

$~~~~0Jt0:( :'} \::H::,::,:··t·· WESTERN EUROPE Switzerland

·.<: ; ~:iN~t:lft::

EASTERN EUROPE Poland Romania ~,@?Nm) ;:

FORMER SOVIET UNION

350 385 370 310 330 360

II 14 16 ',,::'4:j~ ::::;:::::~::ttt: ":{':::d~:, .'. : " ll~~>

84 84 79 54 56 54

321 286 311 77 80 83

1509 1541 1579 821 855 875 203 202 200 94 92 80

885 913 942 637 648 680

65 69 70 162 160 165 126 133 128

ill ill J.S4 '::.: •• ): .. : .;:":"':'" ::::(r~:~::;;~~ n ::iqt.: Slii::W':: ;';~;~W :

ill ..... . Uf: :.,:.

113 129 123

II 9.Jl :iiri'ij: .~;. ':;' " . ~f~ ... ...........

Russia 313 285 217 Ukraine lIll llIS II

',,::!;:

•. #'bfl 4.M/{:) .. :; . :::{\ .• :~k::;:::::r~;;{::;/; ::;·?:::i{::·: ~~,t:(!: :··:· .: .. :::: ;:'3~(F :::·):i:/:::::n ~l~ }::· .... ........ .

NORTH AFRICA

390 405 420 385 405 425

Tl 10 10 :.

:::::' ~51 :: i$O 91'S

81 84 85 64 65 66

298 290 287 83 79 80

1594 1645 1670 947 988 1,001 195 190 190 92 89 92

950 945 945 688 700 702

71 72 71 160 161 162 127 115 115

3M ill JHll .{;[5#1'4\.· .': ~~(\,}.:\::.: .. 5~":6 "

ill l4ll. l4.O ··'·::' P~i:::\? i ;'f:@:~4W?: '::"\,:'::!\::; '( :I~~

133 145

21 ~

#~ 140 ';:-"

173 150

6Jl 15 .4b fr::::{:::····.\::::'i::, ti~ L

150

!M ::14ij

170

iO ;:':?4Hr

Jllll JUS llll ill J!ll lSll ·;:.~~~·:):Ut~ ;}:::;:~~.\?~;;/i~:/{ :::::::-::;:: .-.-.:.::::-: . :::;. -:"; :~~:~;·:~~~::·-t:::t:t:: ::::::::::: :::- .:::::~::.: t~\:t? ::: .. ·.:.:.<J(H~~ij.{~~ ~I:~. · ':'-.': )~~[lHk::~J6 ._._._._ ........ :.) ... :::;:;:: .. :.. f~~~rn~~f~ ;;;" . ~:)~ : ... ;:

Japan ~'ki6taf ;,;,; ~;:;

OCEANIA Australia 21 New Zealand

TOTAL (I) _-f.~0CUI ory

' .. : ... ... ... ' ....• : .. -:-.......... ;. : .. :;.:.:::;.

IN ... r botiDDlDc Apm 1 of the yeor ShOWD. Wear endlnc JUDe 30 of' tbe year ,hOWD. 3/Y..,. endlDc M.y 31 of lb. yeor IbOWD.

211

10,895

234

ill ·:);'*4? '

11,194

19

II Y y .... :,:?:,:j::)4: ';' :;,~:l: K •• :::::.j:~::::i}{):\:34 .'

241 268 290 300

ill lllI l4D. ill ;::::<;:~jjq~j . ::: :.:;'ltf:;:;t ::~li( {~~~Il:~:' -'~~; : :.:.:. \(::r::;":: . =S5S[

11,349 11,686 11,949 12,199 A A

Page 20: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA

Cmada Mexico United StitH

$lIJ. r~I::

SOUTH AMERICA

ArgentlllJl

Brazil Venezuela ~bTot.i'(:

EUROPEAN UNION

Austria Belgium-Luxembourg

Dtomark FInlAnd

Franu Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherl.ncb

Portugal SpaID Sweden

United Kingdom $ii~j~tat . ,;'

WESTERN EUROPE

Switzerland ab.Tofal · ,;:, ., .. , ..

EASTERN EUROPE

Poltnd Romania

Sab:t6t.t:· '::,<".

FORMER SOVIET UNION Ruula Ukraine

SulJ.:,Total ..

NORTH AFRICA

EiYpt b:-Totar:

ASIA

Japan ~~Total

OCEANIA AUJCnUall New Zealand 31

S~~Total·

( :lo_ IlYur btpaWol Apt1l J of W year ... _ . W ear adlq JIDlfI 30 of 110,,_ ok ..... JIY .... nodlqMay 3J ofWyoar olt .....

CHEESE CONSUMPTION SELECTED COUNTRIES

(UJOO METRIC TONS)

J993

285

148 3.O2ll

..:: ::, : ~;sn

350 316

.,.,.,.,.w".:.".,.,.;.,.;: .. 76 ·.151

1994

195 lSI

lID. 3~~

372

367 76

,·,·,,·/·, j U5

69 73 119 120 80 77 S9 59

1113 1219 9t6 943 235 145

J8 20 1040 1060 lJ8 213 68 72

206 146 1« 145 flO ru

:: .. : .. :~.:; .... ; .. /~~

lD! ..... . ::;\J.9.?/:

115 ~

:.:2ij\ ::\]:::{\:::. ' ..

113

21 204

1995

191 134

3ill 3,699

360 449

1i ·88S

76 120 103 61

1248 972

248

10 1070 227 75

216 141 511

_ 5.o9J '.',

.uu ····,:./(01

III U

.... :: ~#:: ) ...

331

n ":41,·

354 300 1JU 6S ;.IS! . '.' ., ">'::> l~ '::

.... ~ .. ill . ..... .. ..... ...... J,18 . .. ', .... ; .. ; ..... .. :,:, .. ; ......... ~H :;}17 . ,:<,321

ill ill W ,':· i{i.1}~ :?' ·:: · .. : ... ~ .73 .·.;.; ;. ·j;·it~t'·18f .

151

1lI ·':.::'r'£itt ::.; .

10,550

158 12

'\:::::.~8i ::?:·,;:; .

10,897

20

148 3.0

. 11f

11,035

1996

297 130

lliD M81

379 417

~

} 1j:50: ... "

90

129 119

71 1233 977 249

21 1130 119 77

119 141 5lS

· >};::5~1 ::

120 U

: <:::u(\.i

309 S1

~66.

171

Jl .;. ~9.~ ):( . ..

11,301

) 1997

321 138

.MSl 1,911

384 430

71 .... :.: ~~ ... .

96 130 85 75

1323 996

250 21

n.o 132

79

11S 142 S1D

": ~;3§4

133 is

";;:;/#i'

344 ~

1998

324 145

3S6l .4,031

392 «1

2S . /,;:~ .::m:

JOl 131

85 74

1345 1,013

250 22

1140 134

79 226

141 6QQ

' ~3

ill 11%;

136 is

:,:(j::;ftul

..'l~ .. ::;::;:.,.,,::,.

386

3i 4~.

m :::···,~:t\;:,:

202 3J

".l3$

11,685

no :: '.. ":;~:{ ~~~ii':

Page 21: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

1993 NORTH AMERICA

CHEESE IMPORTS SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1.000 METRlC TONS)

1994 1995 1996 (P) 1997

Canada 22 21 21 23 23 Mexico 30 35 18 20 26 United States ill .1M lS.l lSl ill •...••• ~f< i:.}:/\,}t::!t:··:: '< » ;' .. i:·:·· /': i#f ':':?f? ?:~1 '·:'·'<' ::;itH:~i. <: )\;@.'< Wi~~ / •• : ..••. . ;:::::·'·@i·:\J®

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina

Brazil

Venezuela

EUROPEAN UNION

Austria Belgium-Luxembourg

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Netherlands

Portngal

Spain

Sweden

y~I~!2~~~()m . '.' .... . Sill>.;fi)'''l' '':: />:< <H' :

WESTERN EUROPE

3

8

l

4 14 3

3 13 20 3 o

34 6

o 4 3

12 .:: •.•... : •. ·;· ; · .·:t{'::::I[ : b~ ::

6 37

5 14 2 6

12 17 6

o 24

6

o 13 4

111 ....• »):::#'1::: '

3 89

5

6 10 16 5 o

21 7 1

2

6 32 l

4t

2 4 2

10 19 5 0

18 13

I

3

3 25 l

"::~ f j { '

2 7 4 0

13

21 5 0

20 15 I

3 1 1 0

n li JD : ) W)').i;' . :·::::::,:: : j9~::::::):(:':;,r:\: :\::. :::::i~~

(f) 1998

22 30

1SD .m

3 17 l

: .... :#'

2 7 5 o

10 23 5

o 20 13 I

3 o

JD . ""'" iriJn%il~

Switzerland JD II II ~#ijT~;n:: ;{·}j:1U :'UYH\\i?Qf?# ? ... lr :· ;' Hi):::::i~'::%\ :U"jf::~(:I@ :IM·.·:::::;}.·}n )t:;}·.{!.:· •• ••.•• .:·MY ::('}:::W::::lip::;:::;::·:, '(::::);41

EASTERN EUROPE

Poland

Romania

FORMER SOVIET UNION

Russia

Ukraine

~£f~WF{

NORTH AFRICA

Egypt @4%oo::',:,:

12 2

20 76 79

2

133

3

II '.~'::"

200

11 H ::,{{:.<'}i4 · .'

3

II J

220 1

··}.;~d

II IJ:

ASIA

Japan 1Al ill 1M ill ill : :: :jI~ @~t@m :r' · ........ ,:::,{{::.::::::; ·r::: )4t :.::·f:·::-··\:::j#~\: •• ,:·::::::.:, ... '::)M :~:·?f'.::::}::i:.})71 :

OCEANIA

Australia 21 25 27 New Zealand 31 1 1

1~~'t~iV .. ii:m(::://r::fIl::): •••• :), \.},jI):.:.::{: .• : · ~~W}:::::i·.:;~ .

TOTAL (I) _-(.recut ary

lIVe .. bOl:1Dnln1 April I of the year .hOWD. lIYear endlDc JUDe 30 of the year shown. 3IVear eDdm, May 31 of the yoar IhOWD .

577 684

21

28 33 32 33

704 795 822 so A I\C C 1\

FASJCMPIDLAP

Page 22: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA

C:mada Mexico Ualled States

5.b':(9(8t

SOUfH AMERICA

AraeatlDa Brazil Venezuela

sUb'Tatal

EUROPEAN UNION

Austria Belglllm-Lu:sembourg Denmark Finland FTioCe Germauy Gr«ee

Ireland Italy Netherllluds

Portugal Spalll Sweden untted Klogdom

S""TQ~t' .

WESTERN EUROPE Swltzerlud ubTotaj ..

EASTERN EUROPE Poland Romaola

Sub Total

FORMER SOVIET UNION Russia Ukraine

Stab-Total .

NORtH AFRICA

EIYJll ~ToraJ

ASIA Japan

~~b rC)tal !

OCEANIA Australia 2/ New Zealalld 3/

SabTotai·

TOTAL -

(I) - Orecu! IlYnr bot:U>Dln1 April I . , Ib, year .wo. VVur uClLae J UDe 30 of tbe Ye!lr mown. 31Ycu....sm Ma J l ofllu _ sh . .....

1993

9 o

a ···18'

3 o II

...•. .1 .. .

12

5 163

21 96 70 ~

6 40

104 1 4

2

.. ..... . ll 553.

. 611 60

6

II 6

o 4

... , ·4

II. ·Hd).

84 ill lOS .

864

CHEESE EXPORTS SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1,000 MBTRIC TONS)

1994

8 o

lS 33

13 o II

.J~ .• ..

13

8 126 27

104 79

4

8 38

III I 6

I

•• •• H ••••••••• 1S. .. 55)

S9. S9

17 Il

... 17

2

5 7

11 I)

II. o

97 138 .23.5..

91 7

22

14 o

2li 42

IJ o II

:::·: . ::13 ...

16

7

liS 29

105 9S

4

4 37

III 3 5 2

. ~ 549

13

o 13

2 6 8

o

° o ",- .,- .:~. ::0

III l6i

.. . ·: Uo<

969

1996

IS o

31 41.

II o II it'

IS ~

85

o III 113

4

7 42

101 3 4

2 11

Sll

51 57

14

o · 14 ··

J

1 6

II o

II.

111 ill 284

.;-,

A A

1997

23 o

38 61

20 o o

····· 11'>

~

(j

85 o

96 135

4 6

40 87 J

" 3

ill 484

61 61

16 II

16'

2

1 ~ .

II 11

1,002

(f) 1998

28 o o . .H·

Zs

A

4 6

70 o

95 120

3 6

40 86 3

" I 1Jl

449

2 1 4

1)

o

128 l4il 308

994

Page 23: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA

Canada

Mexico United States ....... ............. ' ... -.-, .... ,.

SUb'TQUjl . ::.:' .. ,,, .. ,.,:,:,:,: :::.

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina

Brazil

Venezuela

1993

46 o

CHEESE ENDING STOCKS SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1 ,000 METRIC TONS)

1994 1995

46 39

1996 (P) 1997 (I) 1998

39 46 49 o 0 0 0 0

ill ?:l~1\ ' .:'.

m W ill ill ill ,:.: ')} j#. }{} :::{:i;'tiJ~iM:>:::':: \::i~~9 ':t,rm' ::')t,:,~:,: '2M }::\ :(;:: ::::::H) :;t7.4'i

20 20 26 30

~~fcf.taF:·:;r:·::.t:::(; .......... ,;:::':':::!,/%Jq::::'(:::(V:H/)i:,:i .. j~ •.•.•

o 2

,:"t ;:ier:

o II

..· .. ·:i{·.

o J1 :63

o l2 ];9.' ..

33 o

J1 to '

EUROPEAN UNION

Austria

Belgium-Luxembourg

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greeee

Ireland

Italy

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain Sweden

United Kingdom

@ij~~J.ij~~:m?)~:~r::~::;;~:::::: : : : ;~:;~{\;~~~;~~;::·:~: ....

WESTERN EUROPE

Switzerland

$~ijM~( ; : .

EASTERN EUROPE

Poland

Romania

$lI~Tht~r ' .

FORMER SOVIET UNION

Russia

Ukraine

~jiWt~~.r·::'·"

NORTH AFRICA

Egypt

$~Wt~tiil :,":){/ :: ':.

ASIA

~~p~~ ,'. ~b:.l:J)t~r:::: .

OCEANIA Australia 21

New Zealand 31 $~#:t9~i :/?::::r::;,···.· :,/':,::,:: ::.

8 4

50 8 6

66 86 15

722 105

0 28

6 5

40 8 5

35 94 14

755 109

0 28

7

4 40

6 20 35 97 16

798 111

o 38

37 42 40 ill l.5l ill

. ' \:':r:,::i\;: )##~ ;«::::,:U:\> <j~ '; :,::/i):: lJ60

1& , ::C i~

20 ~

.: :::;: ::: %4

20 1

:;:;-:-::-:'-::-:

12 .): ~~ :,:::;::::

20 Ii

.26:,

10

2 40 8

58 40 96 20

777 114

o 28 43

18ll ........ : ... :':;::i~~l~';':;'

u Jf?:

21 Ii

21.: .

10 9 2 2

30 30 7 7

62 62 35 30 89 86 18 17

747 717 134 129

o 0 28 28 35 27

ill 1P iffi,?·:j··;;;·;·,··· ·· M,1~

1.J III i.~ ::r : :":{flO

20 Ii

':::16

20 5

is

15 20 14 8 12 14

1 .. :l$'

11

1,727

11 1 J. 1 {~~::::,:::": :, : M::::? :::~: : ::':', ::J~#I:::::::,:' .... : n

1,767

23

90 ~

'j#<

1,825

11 .'.: ij : .

15 . ..• Jg

103 103 Ii2 M

.. ' ·"'(:fl'iZ /."'::::::::::t:·, ..... . :)#.\\, .

FAS/CMP/DLt:P

15 .}': .':: (5:

109 11

' ....•. ' .. j~~

1,816 A

Page 24: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA Canada Mtldco Uolt~ Stites

S.b Total .. ,.,.

SOUTH AMERICA Argeotloa Brazil Chile Peru Veoez1lela

Sltb..Tj)~ ... ..

EUROPEAN UNION Austrl. ~lglum-LllXembourg

Deomark Floland Franc Ge.rll1loy Greece Ireland Italy Nel.berlaods Portugal SpaiD Swedeo Uolt d Klogdom ~b Toul : . :.:: .

WESTERN EUROPE Switzerland

Sllb Total

EASTERN EUROPE Poland

SubTotal

FORMER SOVIET UNION Ruul. Ukraloe

S!'b!ToraJ;· .

NORTH AFRICA Algerl.

SllbToC·t ..

SOUTHASlA ludla 1/

S'll. Total .

ASIA China Jap.n

SabTotaJ·

OCEANIA AOltnlJa1J

(P) • prdl.aoJurJ (I) .fo_ IIY_ ~I April I 9f ttt r .... 111.0 ... . JlYur....n.. Jan 30 of I1tt 1-.... ...... lIY_ IMoy 3toJ ... y .... 0 ....

.. . ...

NOM PRODUCTION SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1,000 MBTRJC TONS)

1993 1994 1995 1996 ) 1997 (01998

S2 S9 71 65 65 65 18 20 30 119 127 130

ill 5.5B. 5S2 ill 59 SlD ....... ... ~D3 . 637 : . .. :.:6@;: 666

.. - ..... .. i41 m .. ," ' .. '-::.' .

22 27 37 37 40 45 51) 45 60 50 5S 61 5 6 6 6 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 J 1 ... 1 .. .. .1 3

. ll~. 81 ''i06 1J6 104 U5

25 23 20 16 17 18 52 50 52 55 50 48 20 21 18 18 23 21 14 15 13 5 29 30

346 347 367 364 369 370 427 374 399 396 334 331)

0 0 0 0 0 0 139 135 119 127 109 105

0 0 0 0 0 0

58 38 32 29 39 37 10 10 12 13 14 14 15 13 20 14 16 16 37 34 25 29 38 40 ill ill Wi ill lilB ill

:··:·t.l6B :·: '· l.ilB·. : , I tl9} 1~1~~ >. . ...... . 1.;~~ / .. .. l.l~

11 ~ ~ ~ III 11 n 24 .: .... 24 14 20

.. 21

lS{j W ill ill W ill '56 til 128 120 lil J15

130 l10 190 170 170 180 53 ~ 1.5. JlI JlI lS .. ; .... .......

.' ;-:~ /: ~\/. ,:: i$O 22$;:/ ::::::.::;.:;; 'i·lOO :-.' .. 100. ... -:.: .... : )05,

0. 0 41 ·· 0

~ ~ .95·:··

30 34 m 184 1$2 118 . . . . . . . . .. ... . . .

24

II j} ..

lIlIl. 100

35 ill

.. ~225 .. ·::X:'.::.

210 J1B

· ·· · · ~jf .. ::.:

II 0

10.5 105

36 lnD ... p6

119 ill

':':: 4~1···

3,

II 0

Ull .. "';:; . . 1111

38 ZIHl

•.. :llS "';:':; -

238 ill ... :+w:

II 0

Wi ··: d~.

40 l!1 . .. . 131

248 ill

:········"9::

~ COUNSEl....ORfAlTACHE REPORTS. 0f"FlClAl.. STA TISTiCS.

FASK;MPJ[)t..t;P

Page 25: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA

Canada

Mexico

1993

37

NOM CONSUMPTION SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1,000 METRIC TONS)

1994 ·

31

220

1995 1996 1998

27 40 30 35 205 251 255 255

ill Unltrosu~~; ... .••• ?i)<!!}:h:Jj.<jlj'{:ii?f:ji{)\ U< ... .• \yHi~i ?)~<j/(}.:)((~~?:t(i}}if0tAt~r}··:0:i);~<l;<\i~~:<tL;!1:;:.t:;tG~>~~0:if;W?::(}::,:: ;~1

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina

Brazil

Chile Peru

Venezuela

EUROPEAN UNION

Austria Belgium-Luxembourg Denmark

Finland France Germany

Greece Ireland

Iuly

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

25 28 80 90 15 15 7

6 8 41 23

10 15 15 12

342 320

90 80

8 7 11 11

161 143

188 215

11 14 40 41

15 15 16 17 108 128 140 150

14 15 15 15 8 9 10 11

S . ·Y:i:;r;.:. :::::-:.: · ~9i

7 10 13 15 9 13 14 14

12 13 15 12 10 7 7 7

305 283 287 285 90 54 112 110

7 7 7 6 11 11 11 11

118 126 130 130 210 195 206 200

12 12 13 13 40 33 35 3S

Swroen 22 21 16 19 20 20

Unltro Kingdom 81 . 'ili:tM~(?()}< ::/:f:{{}tHH} :<>·j:F~:::~/r::: (~}\}j))::: :)\f;j:n(lrhij:~:·.·~ .~'. "

II II ~ ~ ~ :, . :981 ·: .:):,.::: : ... <:926: :· ............ · . . .t$$~:(:: ::::\: .. · .W~K ,:,/,::::::·:·/:: 9.il:

WESTERN EUROPE Switzerland

EASTERN EUROPE

Poland ,:~(~i .,:('· .

FORMER SOVIET UNION

RussIa Ukraine

G62't~~~~ ,::;:,)!n: :,: .. NORTH AFRICA

Algeria $Mf~m ··

SOUTH ASIA

India 11 ~jjJ)!ri)~F

ASIA

.... ::. :.: . .J~t

iU 15 .. ,. : 40 . ..,.,.,.. :'·.:,::' ~~i; ';/ <,

15 3s1

230 176 17S 165 190

iU 15 ~ ~

.• , n~:i)'· ::tt~ti{t:'~i~}::{:ii::}i:{::::: i~~ :)':' .. ,.< f:f iii6 : ..

H.Il ill «\ii: iMW :":\ ,';: >:::aJ~ .•

36 54

l1ll 122

lOB. "ij, 4M",

55 ... $$

1ll \,IL·

49 SI

ill lli

195

1S (i:{ iM

China

Japan ~lilfl'*l.f;:' . <.::::: '·::.::t::::':) <"(,} .. :::':: ".:::'i::{::::""';:} :,::::: :::::",;,:.:,:::'::::?;::::~.o.~.:: ........ ,': .:,.<);;::,·,,~:r"

45

ill ~~1. .. . .... {:) . ,: }~9 :::·····,':."',) }~ ....

54

l.6J ·<::::.31:1:.

OCEANIA Australia 2J

s~'lA'~~~~?':,<· TOTAL

- pre ary (I) - f.rtcaJt

.......... ::;.

IlYear bfClnDlDC April 1 .ftbe yen .h.WD. 2IYear end"', JlIDe 30 .ftbe year .bown. 3IYear end"', May 31 .fthe year .b.WD.

33

." .. :, ..... "":,: ,., ... ".""".,::::::.::.:::,:" ~::'.',." ...... ' ..... . 2, 0

41 43 43 4S

,·,",:" Ml ••••••• : ... .... ,., .. ... ij" ,,:.,::: .. :::: .. . ::""';':::' ,:,:" .M ,:, ...... , ... : .. ,.:.,':'.::'> ::::, •• :.:,M.: .. " 2,656 2,567 2,562 2,652

SOURCE: COllNSELORIA IT ACHE REPORTS, Of'FlClAL Sf ATISllCS. FASlCMPIDL&.P

25

Page 26: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA Canada Mexico United States

Sebj:jiji.r ·\·· .:

SOUTH AMERICA

Arientlua Brazil Chile PUll Venezuela ~b:tot~i

... :,-:' .. ..

EUROPEAN UNION Austria Belgium-Luxembourg Denmark Finland France Ger many Greece Ireland 1~ly

Netberlands Portugal Spain Sweden United KJngdom

$.01) ''l'l;Iu1

WESTERN EUROPE Switzer land

~~ I:9tat

EASTERN EUROPE

Polaod

Silblotil '

FORMER SOVIET UNION Russia Ukraine

sll~lrow . NORTH AFRICA Alger ia

. ,*bTot~i ;

SOUTH ASIA India I I

S~.~.:rOlal

ASIA Cblna Japan

SabToJaJ

OCEANIA Australia 21 New Zealand 31

S.I,I.~Totat

-pre (I) - (orecut

•• 10,

IN .. r bealnnlDl April I .fth. y .. r .h."D. lIVur tDdlnl June 30 of the year ,bOWD.

3IYoar endlDI M.y Jl .(th. year ,h.,.".

"::{:::\': . . . ... .. . , .......

NDMIMPORTS SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1 ,000 METRIC TONS)

1993 1994 1995

5 6 2 200 200 180

1 1 .Il ,:·,,::tAA6'::,: ;:.;.

}O7 18i

6 5 2 32 33 59 10 7 8 7 10 6 1 6 6

';: ;~:' :.::: . .. ;: 61 .. ':::)j

0 0 0 2 4

5 10 8 0 0

4 2 2 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 16 18 0 0 1 8 7 5 1 4 0 II II II

33 54 ,.6

II II .II 0 0 0

.II ~ 1 ;·;::/lJ-· ':'4 1.

20 16 15 II II 0

::do. '16 . . .............. ':':' 15,: '"

tiD ill l!I8 . ·1:50· 111 His

1 1 J 2.

6 20 10 U 8.6 ill

.... ". ..J~6. .Uf .

1 1 1 II 11 II 1:: 1

548 561 550

26

1996 1998

3 I I 127 128 125

~ 1 Z

::" .~"':" . :::.:J3Z ·,: 'J)1 .. . )28'

2 1 71 75 87 10 9 10 9 10 11

Z 1 1 94 9'=: 111

I

4 5 4

I I I

I 0 0 6 6 5

19 27 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

31 35 32 0 0 0 5 5 4

0 0 0 II 0: II

68 80 rT

I) It 0 0 0 0

~ 3 l -,,:: .~~: . .:S

40 60 60 II II: 0

40:' 60 . ~

55 10 6J 55· ro 63

0. 0. II 0 ':'.::.:.~ . '.':.*

13 13 14 1.5 14 ~ . . .. .. ~f . 87 19

I 2 I

0 I) I) ....

..... ~ .. I

483 531 522 SOURCE: COlINSELORlA IT ACHE REPORTS, OfFICvu. Sf A nmes. FASlCMPI[)LAP

Page 27: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

1993

NOM EXPORTS SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1 ,000 METRIC TONS)

1994 1995 1996 ) 1997 (0 1998 NORTH AMERICA Canada 17 33 44 33 30 30 Multo o 0 0 0 0 0 United Stat" ill ill 1M 31 ill illS

~ii'IJ'TM.i :}i"':::",--}::::- ",,::,);:::: :,:: ... ".: ;<';:;.<:.;.::;:;:-:-- r:~:)~J$.$. ... :;.; ,ltt: trf!~~i~j(fi ~:~:)~~~:::t:::~::;:;~:~::~Q$/{: :::::::~ :::}:V:::~:.< :HH~$. :]: ,.,,:\ i:i:::t/: \f~~~:: .l#?: . : ... · .... ·~:~ :;:~:~::~]?>C[)(j'-:

SOUTH AMERICA Argentina 6 9 20 22 16 25

o o o o

Brazil 10 0 0 0 0 Chile 0 0 0 0 0 hru 0 0 0 0 0 Venezuela 0 0 0 0

__ JfTou t "::::/:: ::;::'::::: ,:,':;:/;;:;::;::L:;:::::::rJM }(: <--::::\i%:[:f : , - :'::::.\{{ ~~;,::n::::-':-::: : :: ------ ) 2.l. )<::'::: z::: >::~ #~ -""--------- - -' ,::25:,

EUROPEAN UNION Austria 23 Belglnm-Luxembourg 60 Denmark 13 Finland 3 France 14 Germany 45 Greece 0 Ireland 59 Italy 0 Netherlands 51 Portugal 0 Spain 3 Sweden 8 United KIngdom U

$ilb:1to~Ft)t(\:'tf\ :,::, ,.';:":"" ,,,:\ ,'::::i: ::::: :.:::;\:',/:._~~~d::

WESTERN EUROPE

FORMER SOVIET UNION Russia Ukraine $ulPt~iiI :j;)::: ,:, ::-

NORTH AFRICA Algeria @jM~H:)

SOUfHASIA india II $~Mt~( ' , ' "

20

o /::.::,,::;:. : :~ -"

o o

~:::.;:.::: .

ASIA China J apan

'~Wt.M~f :::::;'::::,:;:;: '-,-,----, ,:;:<::';-::)::::::,:;::' :- :::(::::,:_'::::;:::,?:::::;::::;;,::: -:':::'-: , 9::--:,{{:' 'i'::::::

OCEANIA Australia 21 New Zealand 31

131 ill

::::~~

17 29 13 3

18 33

0 26 0

21 0 0 6

]A

): J@;;::

ill · Hi ·

50

o -- ~

U ·:11:

II :3M

o o

· ...... A,:(

,::':':-.

10 I 112 58 57 52

13 II 6 7 6 6 21 23

23 37 39 35 73 43 47 50 0 0 0 0

46 34 50 30 0 0 0 0

86 26 48 48 0 0 0 0

6 6 6 I I 10 16

16 8 II 31 :/\ ~~tU;r- ,',' :4~r --

.... ::: :: MAA _ .....

2H II 2!l lDJl .... .. 77 :' . ':' :(§O :'" ·· · ..... .. .. ) M

30 45 40 45 000

I~~ :-::{:iMiEf::fU::::)(':::::(.?:: ~~::>. ,··:/)nf t'ijij{ .·:{:::{::H:::a> :~~

o

188 161

o o o

167 204 197 lSll ill lOll

Sat!/r~~t: :::':::~:::':'::: :::::::::':-i--'-- :-:':'::::\,/}'" --- -- -------- -----:::-:::':}';:: ':-:-::145:-

176 ill --- ------\::::n 1;:::'::-:-- ;:,:;-:-'--::_ -, :355_,: ::,: ::'::,, 31J'::' :\,:::::;::::,:;::::::: :::'::::~: :1U:}>::: ::::::::::))::):::{::::J91

- pr (0, for<CUt IlYe .. btVnDlD& AprU I o£the ye .. ahOWD. Wear eadID& Juue 30 o£the ye .. ahown.

3IYear eAdID& May 31 o£the year shown.

868 85

27

767 1, 41 1,01 SOURCE: CXJUNSELOR/ATTACHE REPORTS. OFFlClAL STATISllcs.

FASl'CMPIDl..4P

Page 28: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA Canada Mexlto United State!!

$lib ~1'6tal y( ','

SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Peru Venezuela

ii~}t'~l ',':,'

EUROPEAN UNION Austria Belgium-L uxembourg Denmark Finland Fraote Germany G rel!te IrelllJld lIaly Netherlands Portll&al Spain Sweden United K1nli\dom

c b'1):ijt.fi-:::':

WF..-STEItN EUROPE Swltzer laod

SiUi:T:,otaf ;,:,.;. -

EASTERN EURO PE PolfUld ~jb to~aF

FORMER SOVIET UNION Rnssla Ukraine

$'j"b:'1'~ijl ,

NORTH AFRICA Algeria

$i~tt9ht : ,

SOUTH ASIA Iodla 11

$ib4!~~1

ASIA Cb.loa J apan

.:.::- ..

1993

9 SS !U

NOM ENDING STOCKS SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1.000 METRIC TONS)

1994

10 5S S2.

1995

12 60 J2

': ,: ::::: .'::. 19S:}:::' ',' :t24 '::::.:.; . ott,!,:,," :

7 20 3 I II

, .. 31

4 3 o 3

20 9 o

87 o o o

..

2 8 1 3 Q .-.

2 5 0 3

26 20 0

84 0 0 0 0

22 16

6 19

1 II

27

3 0 0

35 0 0

20 0 0 0 2

21 11

:~::.:: .

11 14

,"';'.'. :~~ .: ... :::·/:;~~;:f·::::: ;:.·:: .. --:'->:l-5i: ~ 118: ,:, 93 \:',····

o II

,,,, i'l ,,,,:,

4 4

o 16

S

1

0

1Jl , . '):: 1'0

o II

,SIab'-lci'tiilt:::':':f~) "',',{'f :::,/D: '} :::::: :>

o SS

............. ~~ ....

OCEANIA Australia 2/ New Zealand 31

s,u~~~CI~ ~~,.,:: ~ ::::

- p ry (1)- roncaJl IIY ... bopaalq April I or III. year a/1o .... . Wear tadlal J g • • 30 or III. year ... 0 ... .

31Y_ tDdIq May 31 or 1110 yar .... "".

40 Jl

··73

28

,

1996 (P) 1997

7 13 55 SS 11 51 .9l ? :-::::.: ............ .:jls,'~",

8 12 1 I II

" i 3

1 4 0 3

44 10

79 0 0 0 0

26 3li

20S

:1 1

JJl lo i::

0 0 .,

1Jl .. '10

II

::?::{}:

.:" ,"

: .• :'~:i":<:'

o 41

..

17 1 2 1 II

2t

3 0 4

30 5 0

88 0 0 0 0

28 l2

198,'

1 1

II -, U ':\ :: ~.;-'.

0 0

' Jt

11" , ., '::':""

o fl

,, 41-'.:': ,·"'"

!t) 199!

14 55 SO

'49

21 0 3 I II

15

1 3 0 4

25 5 0

107 0 0 0 0

2S <1ll

110

1 1

~

" 0 Q

:; 0

Page 29: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA Canada Medco United State.s.

SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Peru Venezuela

EUROPEAN UNION

I 1993

10 o

111

81 160

51 1

11

WMP PRODUCTION SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1 ,000 MI!TRIC TONS)

1994

8 o

1.6.

102 175 54

3

6l

1995

6 o

.~.

146 200

61 3

6.0

1996

5 o

Al

162 220

63 4

Sl

(P) 19967

4 o

..55.

168 231 63 4

. ~.

(f)199~

8 o

s.s

174

242 63 5

.. ~ . : H::::: ":~~

Belgium-Luxembourg 50 66 73 68 63 65 Denmark 103 114 109 99 104 107 France 290 315 282 348 394 390 Germany 202 202 221 203 210 215 Greece 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ireland 32 36 34 30 34 35 Italy 1 0 0 0 0 0 Netherlands 143 135 122 123 112 11 5 Portugal 7 7 6 6 5 5 Spain 17 18 18 17 17 15

~~~~ II ~ ~ % n ~

~Wr@mc:·:::::: : ::::i:\:::f:::::::::: ::::: ::::}}::;::::: ??9:;:::: :: ::;;;: '~~ : :: :: : ~:i~ ) ":::::~:;:::"': (::: : ?:~~ )::i:: '~9 :·m~M ::.::?::f:L M*~

FORMER SOVIET UNION

NORTH AFRICA Algeria

~hlfJj ASIA

133

o o

120

o o

110

o

124

o o

China 165 165 ill ill ~~f.f.~~t : U :;:< : ::: ::::#:#;:;:::;::;:f{::;: :::::{:;:k@;t#l::;: :: ~~ :?::::{(,/:\ \§W: : i\;::X'::;: :"::~'l!t:: :;:()::::;:::::::::: J~~/ " ' .)

OCEANIA Australia 11 80 93 104 113 New Zealand 21 lOR ill ill ill

iG&ji~:m::t{:h: ':::·:·. ::i .. :. \( /:.:.:::::) )i;r ~iji.:ft:::::::t::]:r::: j~ ?) · · ;;:::~~'6J}: ;:: ::::t)~~(l tt::>

TOTAL 2,147 2,268 2,382 2,449

80

ill :;:, ::::$ffi\:\,

100

o o 0 :

JSO. ~$

134 125

ill ill ) ~r · {)':M9.7

2,529 2,587 (P) - prellmlD&ry I'I)-fo-

SOUR.CE.: COUNSELOR/ATTACHE REPORTS. OFFICIAL STATISTICS.

FAS1C'MYIOLAP

ItYear ... dlne JDDe 30 of the yur .bo ..... lIY ur eadin& MAy 3 I of the year sho .....

29

Page 30: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA ClDlda Medeo

United Staw Salt Tota( SOUTH AMERICA

ArgentJu

Brazil Chne Peru Ven zuels

Subi9jii EURO PEAN UNION 8elgJum-Luxembourg Denmark

France Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

United Kingdom

Siib fol~l

FORMER SOVIET UNION Russls

Sub 'Tctal "': ' "

NORTH AFRICA

Algeria

Egypt

SUbtotal

ASIA Cblna

S~bTOl1lt

OCEANIA Australia 11 New Ze.land 21

SvbT.o~1 "

:-. ;.:.

1993

6 35 56 .... . ... ·91 '

83 186 65 21 ill

":'----492:' . .

21 10

69 136

4 0

27 2 5

18 19.

"'," 31!

118 118'

WMP CONSUMPTION SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1 ,000 METRIC TONS)

1994

6 3S !t!

" ,:.90

90 228 68 30

lOll ~16

19 7

87 156

0 0

23 5 2

18 Z6

343

111 m

1995

S 29 51! '~ '

90 403

70 33

".,Ult 716

27 20 52

182 o o

25 15 6

18 2ll

365

130 , ' 130

118 112 70 IS

:: ~5,

17 18 .:: ::::: d '3S' , "" ", ...... .l.3.9", ,

Z1ll :' , ~i~, ,:

13 31 44

ill : )~, : '"

30

14 Jl 46

ill. ii(

18 II 49

1996

0

31

~ 75

102

310 74 40 82

615 .

21 18

128 158

0

0 34 25 7

17 31

439

159 . )!i9

52 23 '75,:",:;

.YB " j4$"':"':'"

20 II 51. ,

"

..

19967

0 41 fl 88

105 335

75 42 til ... ....

~19'

24 14

174 168

0 0

36 25

7 17

JS .. '

500

135 13S

81 2S

.",.106'

l68 3'6~ ,, '"

1995:

0 20 53 n

107 355

76 45 7S

",,658

26 13

170 168

0 0

36 25 7

15 1II

490

175 Vs.

83 30

113

m .' " " ,," ~,"

2S 31

... . , .. :::;:-::.' ', .56:

Page 31: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA Canada Mexico United States

SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Peru Venezuela

1993

3 35

4 26 27 27

WMP IMPORTS SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1.000 METRJC TONS)

1994 1995

4 2 35 29

7 7 53 211 17 18 28 30 ~ 6.6

1996 (P) 19967

3 31 41

6 9 5 113 100 100 23 10 15 35 38 40 61 lD :z.o

sW;oN~~(i:::::::.}::::,",( ... '-,.;;-::H:::;?@r:r:%~:~f:i:::·::i}:;~:: /::: ::?: \M~ /Y·::)(::·::: : ~~r::'::: ~~f:':: ::::(\:'}:}::::::: ~~9:\ . 'iii,:):.: ' . .. :'::186

EUROPEAN UNION Belgium-Luxembourg Denmark France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal SpaIn UnIted Kingdom

.. · ~Ii'tC)jW:i>\/:::::::::::: ,:)\: .... '

FORMER SOVIET UNION Runla

$Wr@i( }

NORTH AFRICA Algeria Egypt

$iffiI~t ·}

ASIA China [email protected])\:': .. :.

OCEANIA Australia 11 New Zealand 21

TOTAL (P) - preUmlnary

(I) - f."""" llVur md1a& JUDe 30 of the year &bOWD.

W .. r eIldlD, M.y 31 .ftbe year .b.Wll,

1 1 I 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11 ..... ... . :: S-...

5 16 25 40 60 80 : J~;

118 112 70 52 81 83 25

II II ~ ~ II 13 .. . :\:j j \\If{ t:~~:~~~::t\In~~~;~;;;~:\~~:~ /~;(\::':':';~:' ;;:::-:~;. -; .-.~/j~}' .. ......... .. .......... ·.· .. 30! :::.?.': .':': ~;:.:::::::;:((::~~~~

2

331 350 492

31

2 2 2

423 428 437 SOlIRCE: COUNSELOR/"n"CHE, REPORTS, OfF1ClAL STATISTICS.

FASlCMPJOIAP

Page 32: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA CnDada

Medeo

UnJled States ,sUb T61~i ... .. .

SOUTH AMERICA Argeulilla Brazil CbJle

Peru Venezuela

Sut) Total , .

EUROPEAN UNION Belg1um-Luumbourg Denmark Fraace Germany Greece Ire1aad Italy Nelherlaads Portugal

SpaiD UnJted KIngdom

S.bTotai

FORMER SOVIET UNION RllSslll

SlIb 'TQ(a! .

NOaTHAFRICA AJgerla

Egypt

~llf~taJ... ';"<·· ... ASIA China

$.liT~tll .....

OCEANIA AUltralla II New Zealand 21

b··Total

TOTAL (p) - prdlmilliry

(f) • (orecast

IlVlSr .. dlq JaM 30 of the yur Aha"".

2IV_ .. dlaa MIY 31 .r til. yu. ,baWD.

. . ...... ........ :.::, '.~ .

J993

6 o

15 :U

4

o 3 o II. .,.

70 84

107 35 o

22 o

225 o 4

11 '?:.>:.::':' .... }:::::.>.:!80

... . : .:.:.: : . : : :'~:' .

20 ":'10'

o o

960

WMP EXPORTS SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1 ,000 METRIC TONS)

1994 1995 1996 19967 (f)199

6 3 5 8 10 0 0 0 0 0

. .. 16 12. .. 1.8 . .. JJl .. . .. .. . H.1 3%. .n .... . :l3. 18 11

24 58 SS 5S 65 0 0 0 0 0

5 8 7 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 II II 1 1 1

), 6if '· 64 , !1 14

74 131 60 SS 60 94 90 82 85 89

103 73 122 138 140 12 12 J5 15 20 0 0 0 0 0

28 25 15 Z4 15 0 0 0 0 0

205 224 177 153 157 3 1 I 0 4 3 3 I I ~ 5JI S1i 5..l s.s

%7 ··"'(:'··:6M· 541 .•. ~: -:. :. .SM S41 "-:';.::'.

25 5 S S 5 2S

',-"

.~ ~ S

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

H~ 0 ::: (j

1 .. ~ .. . ...... 4 H H. 4 3

':, " :" ., ... 4

74 93 93 109 ltO llIti lIB ill * ~

.. ~:) . .... . . .~1l>. :.:;-;, ....... 368 .~: .. .:· ... 50

1,036 1,127 1,005 I, 73 1,097 SOURCE: COUNSEl..ORJA IT ACHE REPORTS, OfFlClAL STA TImes.

FASlCMPIOLlP

32

Page 33: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

NORTH AMERICA

Canada Mexico

United States

~bjj~~~ :.'?/;L: ..

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina

Brazil Cblle

Peru Venezuela

~#~;j~~F(: ':.\

EUROPEAN UNION

Belgium-Luxembourg

Denmark

France Germany

Greece Ireland

Italy Netberlands

Portugal

Spain United Kingdom

SBb::fjjt~t: .... ........ . ... ", .. :.,,:, .. :. ::---:.:-:

FORMER SOVIET UNION

Russia

·@lii. :f.~tai.:.\.:\f\

NORTH AFRICA

Algeria Egypt

sitil:::iiitat:: :":.:,:;": .. ::'. . ... :;::=:::\:::.':;;;:':: '::':;::": ', :.

ASIA

Cblna

~#:~~e \;;:: .. OCEANIA

Australia II New Zealand 21

S,Ub'Totijt >

TOTAL

(P) - prdlmlDary

(I) - r.recut IlYear rDdlo& JUDe 30 of the year showD.

Wear endln& May 31 of the year shown.

1993

o

11 o

23

2

5

WMP STOCKS SELECTED COUNTRIES

(1 ,000 METRIC TONS)

1994

o

6 o

21 3

~

1995

o

11 8

22 3

1ft .':}"'~: :: ':::::':":.:::'::",:.:,:::.'.' ·· ~W :;·'--:.:'· :::54

4

6 17 10 o 5 o o o o

o

10 o

:';;::"',;;: j \l .

14 fi

· 57 '

157

o 6

5 15 o 4

o o o o :z

. :3l.

o ii

10 o

.10.

139

33

4

5 20 10

o 4

o o o o 3.

10 o

"· 10 . . ..... ...... ..

159

1996

2 o

22 31 27

(P) 19967

o 3. • .. :\,+ :

39 27

25

(f)199

46 14 20

222

3.3. 3.1 28 lis .:·{ :,.:::::. :j~~:::._;;' ••.•• ': '.': . I·fli

2

I 25 10 o o o o o o 3.

o 2

23

10 o o o o o o 3.

.:-:::4t':::(::-::::·:··:·

10 o

16 SlI

..•• : ..• :74 '

245

o ·9· ,:, .... ".

10 o

· : i 6 ...

Q ":::'::/:;:0 .

248

o 3

23

10

o I

o o o o 3.

40

o I)

10 o

·.· 10'

11 o

11 4J! .... '.S9.

223

SOURCE: COUNSELOR/AITACHE REPORTS, OfToKIAL STATISTICS.

r-ASlCMPIDL&P

Page 34: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

$/Metric Ton

5,000

4,500

3,500

3,000 -

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000 LO ..: m co c :E m -,

Jan. 96 Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 97 Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun.

Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec . Jan. 98 Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul.

>- :; ci :> (IJ CI) 0

:E '"') en z

High FOB N. Europe

2,300 2,200 2,050 1,900

1,800 1,750 1,700 1,700 1,750 1,550 1,625 1,650 1,750

1,675 1,625 1,625 1,675 1,725 1,750 1,900 1,975 2,040 2,125 2,200 2,050 1,900 1,875 1,850 1,900 1,925 1,950

Source: USDAIFAS/DL&P, AMS

<0 0)

c co -,

WORLD BUTTER PRICES (82 Percent Butterfat - Unsalted)

• • , • • ,

• •

..: m :a: ~ :E

• • • • • .. « :. ; ..... , '.' • • f - • , • f • « '. .. . , I: : ~ :-.-

• • • • · . ., ; « •• ' · .-. . .. • " .tI .",-• «I. I. I • I.

• • I • : : II · ,_. I • -, I,

.; :> ,..., ..: >- :; .; :> co ..: >-:::::I Q. 0 0) (IJ (IJ a. 0 0) co co ..., CI) Z c: :E :!: ..., CI) z :E :E en en c

m co ..., -,

Low FOB U.S. Market-Chicago US. N. Europe eM -Salted) Support

2,050 1,763 1,435 1,950 1,590 1,435 1,900 1,590 1,435 1,700 1,820 1,435 1,650 2,205 1,435 1,600 2,975 1,435 1,600 3,320 1,435 1,600 3,385 1,435 1,600 3,385 1,435 1,450 3,385 1,435 1,450 1,620 1,435 1,475 1,984 1,435 1,475 1,990 1,435 1,475 2,365 1,435 1,500 2,555 1,435 1,475 2,255 1,435 1,500 2,130 1,435 1,600 2,490 1,435 1,600 2,425 1,435 1,625 2,410 1,435 1,700 2,450 1,435 1,750 3,230 1,435 1,800 3,505 1,435 1,800 2,870 1,435 1,800 2,630 1,435 1,750 3,068 1,435 1,750 2,965 1,435 1,750 3,040 1,435 1,750 3,410 1,435 1,775 4,105 1,435 1,800 4,563 1,435

'3 '"')

N. Europe High FOB

N. Europe LoW FOB

u.s. Market Chicago ......

u.s. Support

Page 35: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

WORLD CHEDDAR CHEESE PRICES (40 Pound Blocks Cheddar)

$/Metric Ton

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500 LO ~ >- ci. 0;; CD m CQ CQ :::J G> 0 m

:= := ...., en z c: c: CQ CQ ...., ....,

N. Europe High FOB

Jan. 96 2,550 Feb. 2,700

Mar. 2.650

/>fX. 2,800

May 2,650 Jun. 2.650 Jul. 2,550 Aug. 2,650 Sep. 2,575 Oct. 2,500 Nov. 2,500 Dec. 2,500 Jan. 97 2.550

Feb. 2,625 Mar. 2,650

/>fX. 2,700

May 2,675 Jun. 2,550

Jul. 2,500 Aug. 2,450 Sap 2,400 Oct . 2,550

Nov. 2.550 Dec. 2,500 Jan. 98 2,500 Feb. 2,450 Mar. 2,400

/>fX 2,400

May 2,350

Jun. 2,400

Jul. 2400

Source: USDAIFASIDL&P, AMS,

~ >- ci. 0;; r... ~ >- "3 C-CQ CQ :::J G> 0 m CQ CQ G> := := ...., en z := := ...., en c:

CQ ....,

N. Europe U.S. Market Low FOB (CME4O#)

2,250 3,040 2,200 3,035 2,200 3,060 2,200 3,1 60 2,200 3,290 2,200 3,290 2,300 3,445 2,300 3,605 2,350 3,735

2.250 3,480

2.250 2.m 2,250 2 ,7~

2,300 2,800 2,300 2.895 2,300 2.m 2.300 2.7~

2,300 2,555 2,300 2,570 2,300 2,700 2,300 3,020 2,300 3,070

2,250 3,075 2,250 3,115

2,300 3,160 2,200 3,150 2,200 3,135 2,200 3,028 2,200 2,806 2,050 2,725 2,050 3,345 2050 3365

O;; co ~

0 m CQ

z := c: CQ ....,

U.S. SUOOOfI 2.525 2.525 2,525 2,525 2,525 2,525 2.525 2,525 2,525 2,525 2.525 2,525 2,490 2.490 2,490 2,490 2,490 2.490 2,490 2,490 2,490 2,490 2,490 2,490 2,490 2,490 2,490 2,490 2,490 2,490 2490

>- -CQ :::J := ....,

N. Europe High FOB

N. Europe Low FOB

U.S. Market

u.s. Support

Page 36: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

WORLD NONFAT DRY MILK PRICES (Extra Grade)

$/Metric Ton

3,000

2,500

2,000

1.500

1,000 U') ~ >- 'S ci ~ <D ." CtI CtI ."

:E :!!E ~ G.I 0 c CI'J Z C CtI CtI ~ ~

N. Europe High FOB

Jan. 96 2,250

Feb. 2,225

Mar. 2,100

Apr. 2,050

May 2,000 Jun. 1,975 Jul. 1,950

Aug. 1,925

Sep. 2,000

Oct. 1,975

Nov. 1,975

Dec. 1,950

Jan. 97 1,950

Feb. 1,900

Mar. 1,875

Apr 1,825

May 1,800

Jun. 1,750

Jul. 1,725

Aug. 1,675

Sep. 1,775

Oct. 1,800

Nov. 1,700

Dec. 1,700 Jan. 98 1,650 Feb. 1,600 Mar. 1,600

Apr 1,575

May 1,560 Jun. 1,525 Jul. 1475

Source: USDAIFAS/DL&P, AMS

..: >- 'S Q. ~ "- ~ >- :; ci CtI CIS ." to CIS :!!E :E ~ (I) 0

:5 :!!E ~ ~ (f) z C CtI ~

N. Europe U.S. Market Low FOB (Central)

2,050 2,554 2,050 2,452 1,975 2,425

1,875 2,425 1,725 2,590 1,750 2,843 1,800 2,921 1,750 2,882 1,750 2,910 1,750 2,880 1,875 2,780 1,875 2,645 1,875 2,480 1,775 2,525 1,750 2,525 1,725 2,510 1,725 2,400 1,675 2,370 1,575 2,370 1,600 2,350 1,675 2,340 1,700 2,325 1,600 2,320 1,600 2,320 1,550 2,335 1,500 2,320 1,475 2,310 1,425 2,300 1,400 2,285 1,400 2,270 1350 2270

36

. ' ........ .

'> co ..: >-." to to 0

:E ::a z C CtI ~

U.S. Support

2,350 2,350 2,350

2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350

2,350 2,350 2,310 2,310 2,310 2,310 2,310 2,310 2,310 2,310

2,310 2,310 2,310 2,310 2,266 2,266 2,266 2,266 2,266 2,266 2266

-::l ~

N. Europe High FOB

N. Europe Low FOB

u.s. Market (Central)

u.s. SUpport

Page 37: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

WORLD WHO.LE MILK POWDER PRICES (26 PERCENT BUTIER FAT)

$/Metric Ton

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500 LO ~ >- ci. > m ~ ~ :::l Cl.l 0

~ ~ ...,

c: en z ~ ...,

Jan. 96 Feb. Mar. Apr.

Ma¥ Jun. Jul . Aug.

Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 97

Feb. Mar. Apr.

Ma¥ June Jut. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 98 Feb. Mar. Apr.

Ma¥ June

Jul.

Source: USDAIFAS/DL&P, AMS

(0 ~ m ~

c: ~ ~ ...,

N. Europe Hiqh FOB

2,250 2,100 2,025 2,000 1,950 1,950 2,010 1,950 1,990 1,990 2,000 2,000 2,020 1,925 1,900 1,875 1,850 1,825 1,775 1,800 1,850 1,950 1,975 1,925 1,850 1,825 1,800 1,775 1,800 1,825 1850

>- "S ci. > I"'- ~ >-:::l Co > ~ Cl.l 0 m ~ ~ Cl.l 0

~ ..., ~ ~

..., en z c: en z ~ ...,

N. Europe Low FOB

2,150 1,975 1,900 1,875 1,825 1,825 1,850 1,850 1,850 1,850 1,900 1,925 1,94{)

1,900 1,825 1,800

1,750 1,725 1,650 1,650 1,675 1,700 1,800 1,800

1,750 1,725 1,700 1,675 1,700 1,700 1750

37

co ~ m ~

c: ~ ~ ...,

U.S. Market (26% )

2,730 2,670 2,630 2,665 2,790 2,985 3,14{) 3,24{)

3,220 3,290 3,070 2,74{)

2,670 2,790 2 ,815 2,820

2,660 2,660 2,665 2,720 2,810 2,930 3,14{)

3,04{)

2,865 2,910

2,945 2,945 2,860 2,895

3285

>- "S ~

~ ...,

N. Europe High FOB

N. Europe Low FOB

U.S. Market (26% Nat.)

Page 38: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

$IMT

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON WORLD DAIRY PRICES 1979-1998

ESTIMATED FOB N. EUROPE

3,000 - .............................................................................................................. .................. ..... .

Cheese

2,500 - ........ .............................................................................................................. .................................................... .

Butter

/ 2,000 - ... ..... .

1,500 \ NDM .~

~ 7T"

1,000 -... /~~~."*" .. - ......... ...... . . .. .......................................................... .. ............................................................................. .......... ..... . ~ ~ ~

*" ~ " '*-*.. il ~ ~ 'iJL' 7I"%~'*"* .. m·ffi

500 _ .... "1 .... .. 1. ··I······r······1······1 ····I·····'[ .. T······r······I····'······I······r······r· .... , ····I······,······1······r ······I······,······r····r·····j·····,·····I······r ···r······,·······I······'····1······r······I··· .. "I· ··· r··· ··r······I·····

@@@@&@~~~@@&@@&@~~~~ ~$~Ri~~~~I~~$R$~~~~$ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Note: Prices are recorded biannually in the fall (f) and spring (s). Latest 1998 recorded price in July.

Page 39: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

POLICY AND PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT HIGHLIGHTS

Canada Largely as a result of pressure from farm groups, the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT) held hearings on imports of sugarlbutterfat blends. These blends are readily useable for making ice cream and certain other dairy products but are not subject to the steep tariffs that most other dairy imports pay. The CITT report, released in early July, discussed a number of possible actions, including (a) status quo, (b) reclassification of the blends as dairy products subject to higher tariffs, and (c) compensation for milk producers for their losses due to the imports. The report did not recommend which should be pursued.

United States Much of the focus of the U.S. dairy industry in the past year is on the reformulation of the Federal Milk Marketing Order system. Two major items of interest are the reduction of the number of marketing orders from the current 33 to between 10 and 14 and resetting the differentials between beverage milk classes and manufacturing milk classes. USDA's proposal was released in January. Since then corrunents from the public have been submitted and are being analyzed.

Within the dairy sector, the United States has active WTO investigations underway against Canada and the EU. The Canadian investigation has moved to the stage of naming a panel while the EU investigation has not yet moved to that stage. The January issue of this publication gave the background and details of the Canadian investigation. The EU investigation involves its method of

July 1998

39

applying subsidies to export processed cheese. Since making processed cheese usually involves use of natural cheese plus additional milk powder and butterfat, the EU claims that a portion of the subsidy needed to export processed cheese should be counted against WTO limits for milk powder and butterfat rather than just against the limit on cheese. This method of allocation allows the EU to exceed its limits on subsidizing cheese exports. In recent years, exports of butterfat and NDM have not been close to WTO limits while exports of cheese have been near or over WTO limits.

Mexico On December 31, 1997, Mexico removed its last remaining price controls on beverage milk. The change should help make internal allocation of milk more in accord with traditional economics. By late spring, retail prices had largely settled near the 4.70 peso­per-liter ($US 0.55) level. Also in late spring, the Government of Mexico indicated that private processors would be allowed to import NDM for their processing needs but not for direct resale. Some private imports ofNDM have been recorded.

European Union Development in the EU mainly concern reform of the dairy regime to make that sector more competitive in the next decade and to facilitate admission of new EU members. The Commission's draft proposal, released in mid­March calls for a I5-percent cut in intervention prices which is expected to spur both domestic consumption and exports The

Dairy, Livestock and Poultry Div., FAS, USDA

Page 40: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

proposal also suggests a 2 percent increase in the EU-wide quota with the increase directed towards young farmers and mountainous areas. To offs t the loss offann income due to the lower prices, the Commission proposes that farmers be eligible for up to 4 annual premiums based on a farm' s total milk quota. The proposal covers the 2000 to 2004 period. The Commission' s plans call for a consensus to be reached and final decisions made by the spring of 1999.

New Zealand New Payment System: On June 1, 1998, the New Zealand Dairy Board (NZDB) phased in a new commercial pricing model governing its payments to dairy processing cooperatives. The new system replaces a standard cost model which, over the past few years, has encouraged dairy cooperatives to build larger plants and increase production of commodity-type products.

The new payment system puts more focus on a product's market value instead of its cost of production. The new payment system has four different payment categories. Currently, more than 70 percent of New Zealand's output f products fall into the basic commodity

category, where NZDB payments will be pegged against monthly average internat ional commodity prices. Beyond the commodity category, firms will share in market premiums that are attributable to manufacturing, to marketing, or to some mix of manufacturing and marketing

Net revenues to the industry are expected to increase as production patterns better reflect market demand . However, the new payment system is expected to result in wider swings in individual cooperative earnings, particularly for those firms with limited production flexibility .

July 1998

40

Also under the new pricing system, dairy cooperatives that hold export licenses issued by the NZDB, have agreed to allow those licence agreements to lapse in favor of participation in the new pricing scheme. In the past dairy companies often marketed new or innovative consumer products themselves under an export licence issued by the Board. Except for dairy cooperatives, export rights will continue to be controlled by the NZDB and may be granted to food manufacturers and others for niche products.

Future of tlte NZDB: In a May 1998 budget announcement, the Government of New Zealand said that all producer and marketing bards, including the New Zealand Dairy Board should start planning for the time they will lose their statutory monopoly rights. The various boards were given until mid­November 1998 to develop strategic plans for that contingency. The announcement suggested that the affected boards would have 3 to 5 years to transition to a new commercial structure.

Other de elopments indicate the NZDB may not have that much time. New Zealand's two largest dairy cooperatives which process over 75 percent of the milk supply recently announced a strategic alliance to form a joint exporting company. The remaining several cooperatives have been invited to join and the next largest one has expressed an interest.

Dairy, Livestock and Poultry Div. , FAS, USDA

Page 41: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

EXPORTS OF TOTAL DAIRY PRODUCTS FROM THE UNITED STATES

Bureau of the Census data for the first 5 months of 1998 show that the pace of U.S. dairy product exports is running approximately 10 percent above that of 1997. For the first 5 months of 1998, the total value of dairy exports was $388 million compared to $342 in the same period of 1997. On a product basis, most of the increase is due to sharply higher shipments of nonfat dry milk as a result of the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP). Butter and anhydrous milkfat have also been aided by DEIP, but due in part at least, to the timing of shipments, butter exports are actually down rather than up in the first 5 months of 1998. On a value basis, the decline in butter exports is largely offset by increased exports of anhydrous milkfat. Ice cream and condensed milk have shown strong growth for the first five months of 1998 but that follows significant declines in 1997. Within the whey complex, exports of whey protein concentrate are running ahead of last year but not enough to offset the slower pace for dried whey. As a result, the overall value of whey exports is running 8 percent below comparable months of 1997. Dairy based food products (other dairy

products), continue to show rapid growth in value.

July 1998

41

On a regional basis, the Caribbean, Central America, and South America, are up significantly due in part at least to sharp increases in DEIP activity. Also, in the Western Hemisphere, Mexico and Canada have shown strong growth for the January­May period. Economic problems in Asia hurt U.S. exports to that region in early

1998. Exports for the first 5 months of 1998 are nearly $20 million below last' year's $150 million total for the same period. Most of the change is due to a broad array of products, not just to NDM, the major DEIP commodity shipped to the regIOn.

Dairy, Livestock and Poultry Div., FAS, USDA

Page 42: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

<--- QUANTITY (MT) ----> <----- VALUE ($1,000) -->

Jan-May Jan.-May. COMMODITY Un it 1996 1997 1998 1996 1997 19981

NON-FAT DRY I\<nLK MT 18,422 62,070 37,165 34,939 109,233 63,647 1

CONDENSED & EVAP. MILK MT 39,580 9,344 4,327 21,905 6.41 6 4,184

DRY WHOLE & CREAM MT 16,181 48,609 14,433 18,811 76,187 20,885

FLUID MJLK & CREAM 1000 Lt 37,296 43,650 16,692 28,596 34,287 13,509

YOGRT & OTHER FERM MILK MXD 2,983 2,687 1,079 8,861 7,356 2,900 1

BUTTER & MILKF A T MT 20,795 15,025 7,546 41,522 29.955 11,794 1

lCECREAM MT 39,765 36,767 19,484 90,233 83.263 40,034

CHEESE & CURD MT 32,428 37,436 15,600 104,809 123,333 47,320

CASEIN MT 3,096 3,927 2,518 18,237 20,445 8,270

WHEY MXD 4,613,2 14 2,071,295 898 125,894 124,464 51,028

OTIJER DAIRY PRODS. MXD 4,258,266 8,788,205 3,441,986 215,954 296,607 124,829

TO'liAl. 91)'41541 388,400

Source: U ..

[ CUMULATIVE U.S. DAIRY EXPORTS 1

$ Million

I

1,000

800

600

1997 400

200

0 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug . Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

I . "

Page 43: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION 0 IMPORTS

In an effort to provide additional information regarding international demand for dairy products, selected import data from the Food and Agricultural Organization (F AO) are included. Only the major dairy products for countries not included in this circular were included in these tables.

July 1998

43

As a note of caution, F AO procedures for collecting and maintaining its database make it likely that some of F AO's data may differ significantly from data maintained by USDA.

Dairy, Livestock and Poultry Div., FAS, USDA

Page 44: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

BUTTER IMPORTS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES AND REGIONS (METRIC TONS, FAO DATA)

I 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 II

ASIA CHINA 11,912 13,382 11,226 12,101 14,319 14,239 12,246 BONG KONG 6,696 7,064 9,148 10,388 16,771 15,798 15,239 INDONESIA 4,077 9,640 9,018 9,986 8,716 13,316 9,064 KOREA REP 110 2,508 371 514 515 498 513 MALAYSIA 6,840 9,964 9,895 9,692 10,273 10,222 8,986 PHILIPPINES 8,385 10,001 8,940 9,721 11,816 10,566 11,227 SINGAPORE 12,671 16, 198 17,052 16,386 16,819 18,734 1'7,101 THAD-AND 10,058 1 ,903 14,097 12,378 18,541 9,135 7,622 VIETNAM 1,400 3,314 2,700 4,000 5,500 7,300 5,100 .sub -r.ca I "

~149 83;974 -Sl:44'f 8~ fD3:l9lr 99:81J1f ,R'f.U9S:

SQI!IH AMERICA A~D CABIABEA~ ANTIC IA 160 140 100 125 100 70 90 ARUBA 292 100 220 200 200 100 120 BAHAMAS 995 826 704 700 601 604 690 BARBADOS 323 345 394 592 482 464 334 BELIZE 148 122 153 71 50 70 66 BOLIVIA 200 200 200 8 16 13 16 CAYMAN IS 40 20 90 60 55 60 60 CHILE 1,274 1,970 3,917 3,199 2,698 2,249 2,874 COLOMBIA 10 12 23 14 21 68 36 COSTARlCA 0 2 17 0 0 27 2 CUBA 12,200 15,800 7,300 8,500 8,400 3,000 1,200 DOMINlCA 28 to 5 12 IS J5 6 DOMINlCAN RP 1,800 1,500 1,600 1,200 1,900 2,200 2,100 ECUADOR 170 0 0 0 26 I 0 ELSALVADOR 36 33 136 106 331 554 393 FR GUIANA 266 251 280 366 243 186 186 GRENADA 27 39 30 30 40 30 43 GUADELOUPE 615 577 636 665 615 579 579 GUATEMALA 157 270 412 575 513 694 713 GUYANA 150 15 160 160 120 110 150 HAlT. 130 60 90 SO 40 50 50 HONDURAS 120 443 423 483 1,442 862 1,204 JAMAICA 1,536 3,373 676 2,437 975 2,055 1,743 MARTINIQUE 873 807 757 807 806 705 705 MONTSERRAT 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 NETH ANTILLE 225 266 207 223 183 254 254 NICARAGUA 1,522 295 913 33 314 359 518 PANAMA 599 334 1,065 498 787 1,031 900 PERU 3,599 1,81 7 2,343 2.014 3,241 2,527 2.912 SAINT LUCIA 253 240 335 361 347 255 228 STKITTS NEV 40 25 20 20 25 20 20 STVINCENT 35 33 37 30 40 SO 30 SURINAME 35 187 190 100 100 tOO 130 TRINIDAD TOBAGO 1,121 1,715 1,398 1,449 1,560 1,221 995 URUGUAY 0 0 0 0 59 60 20 VENEZUELA 231 292 639 808 519 601 601 _SuUot .. , 19.~17 32.116 , 25.472 lS,890"" 26,864 21,244 1-9"ill;

l"IQRIH AfRICA -MIDDI.E EAST ALGERlA 51 ,407 41 ,670 32,882 38,446 22,188 21 ,584 8,400 IRAN 24,700 15,086 20,069 24,679 5,189 17,000 26,900 IRAQ 3,700 7,800 12,700 8,500 7,200 7,tOO 3,000 Lm YA 9,401 7,514 6,100 7,300 2,000 2,844 2.400 MOROCCO 21,019 25,193 28,081 25,904 29,033 21,500 21,500 SAUDI ARABIA 28,160 26,203 10,424 9149 8,929 20,065 25,995 SYRIA 2,073 2,788 4,735 9,930 6,746 5,500 3,400 TUNISIA 6,388 3,353 5,035 6,101 2,248 2,482 814 TURKEY 2 403 5,670 7,134 5,598 3,580 3,207 3,444

1- SUb '[obll 149.251 l.1M![...=U1,{6iJ 1;JS.6D7 87113 lO128~' 9s:ilJa

TIITAL 240,61 7 251,377 235,079 246,669 21 7,267 222.334 202.919 11 Preliminary. I SOURCE: FAa DATABASE

Extracted : 7/02/98

44

Page 45: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

CHEESE IMPORTS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES AND REGIONS (METRIC TONS, FAO DATA)

[ 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1/ ASIA

CHINA 2,111 2,245 3,622 3,949 5,661 6,904 6,228 HONG KONG 4,002 4,139 4,591 5,306 6,061 5,946 6,789 INDONESIA 2,686 3,310 5,008 4,340 3,927 7,911 6,120 KOREA REP 122 121 200 265 3,121 11,074 15,023 MALAYSIA 1,743 1,728 1,930 2,152 2,715 2,812 3,410 PHILIPPINES 8,609 8,989 10,966 11,262 13,980 14,518 14,722 SINGAPORE 3,327 3,611 4,397 4,211 4,660 4,874 4,978 THAILAND 941 1,185 1,365 1,135 1,470 1,607 1,515 VIETNAM 0 100 240 600 730 1,100 780 ~Silb ·Total :n.571 25.328 32.079 3~ 41395 5S.~6 58,1.8.5J

SOUTH AMERICA AND CARIABEAN ANTIGUA 170 130 100 100 100 130 100 ARUBA 1,254 1,500 1,600 1,200 1,500 1,100 1,100 BAHAMAS 1,552 1,773 1,661 1,600 1,770 1,800 1,800 BARBADOS 1,935 1,673 1,503 1,563 1,587 1,834 1,709 BELIZE 1,906 2,694 2,356 1,501 1,071 893 866 BOLIVIA 61 65 67 183 292 352 300 CAYMAN IS 300 270 460 270 340 350 350 CHILE 96 116 248 2,891 4,544 5,284 5,902 COLOMBIA 69 71 359 488 393 486 1,010 COSTA RICA 384 490 416 322 661 250 179 CUBA 6,000 5,000 3,000 1,000 1,000 1,500 1,700 DOMINICA 190 180 150 183 204 220 240 DOMlNICAN RP 160 80 120 230 500 900 900 ECUADOR 20 12 95 79 72 95 96 ELSALVADOR 767 708 706 1,040 1,293 6,614 9,505 FRGUlANA 530 559 471 496 719 821 0 GRENADA 367 432 400 164 360 400 329 GUADELOUPE 2,043 2,409 1,691 2,568 2,565 2,832 2,832 GUATEMALA 184 182 440 456 670 1,052 1,322 GUYANA 120 300 580 680 830 1,100 1,000 HAITI 600 450 350 250 200 400 430 HONDURAS 12 98 18 97 165 256 413 JAMAICA 4,224 2,522 3,415 5,163 2,853 4,739 3,803 MARTINIQUE 2,078 2,356 2,381 2,846 2,533 2,920 2,920 MONTSERRAT 93 123 120 130 130 130 130 NETH ANTILLE 1,884 2,380 2,370 2,444 2,246 2,394 2,200 NICARAGUA 120 79 136 99 140 230 368 PANAMA 1,893 2,172 2,469 2,312 2,594 531 804 PARAGUAY 12 46 48 104 520 900 1,091 PERU 25 457 384 759 1,443 1,531 1,776 SAINT LUCIA 650 563 533 528 607 604 628 STVINCENT 189 189 204 160 150 150 140 SURINAME 256 341 360 250 110 230 320 TRINIDAD TOBAGO 3,938 4,172 4,600 3,404 4,228 4,319 4,111 -;-Sub"T"oW " c94.0gZ- 34.52f 3'3:11'11 ' 35.560 38i.391f .47.347. 50:314

ALGERIA 1,002 1 6,712 3,405 7,652 12,372 11,000 IRAN 82,000 92,452 48,129 52,178 19,880 26,000 26,000 IRAQ 10,000 1,100 1,100 1,200 1,000 1,000 1,000 LIBYA 12,324 8,307 5,000 9,000 7,200 6,577 6,900 MOROCCO 1,353 1,076 1,191 1,351 1,609 1,414 1,414 SAUDI ARABIA 54,444 61,776 21,564 18,500 21,149 54,087 74,272 SYRIA 1,355 406 197 73 136 32 32 TUNISIA 421 771 1,371 1,217 2,647 3,406 1,783 TURKEY 1,536 2,982 5,620 5,142 1,652 2,786 4,002 Suhll'otal 1"-=43lF J68.871 90.884 -gfo66 -62~92.S 107.674 l2~rl..oa

IQIAL 222,058 228,841 156,894 160,546 143,275 211,217 235,952 11 Preliminary .

I SOURCE: FAO DATABASE

Extracted: 7/02/98 45

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NDM IMPORTS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES AND REGIONS (METRIC TONS, FAO DATA)

I 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1/

ASIA HONG KONG 4,774 5,182 6,315 13,077 8,462 12,982 INDONESIA 38,180 38,658 36,637 44,060 60,692 45,91 6 KOREA REP 12,944 7,950 12,660 10,254 7,044 1,397 MALAYSIA 61,373 66,890 72,132 71,558 85,709 78,151 PHILIPPINES 75,786 75,126 75,559 88,424 103,592 83,704 SINGAPORE 27,034 27,617 26,432 36,117 40,861 31,740 THAILAND 50,905 62,147 52,375 71,749 79,919 67,174 VIETNAM 7,460 8,586 15,200 39,500 58,700 58,700 SubTotal 270,996 283,57(f Z8~,fy! 335.239 386,l7~ 311.U6'"4

SQUIH AMERICA A['tIID CARIABEA['tII ANTIGUA 50 60 30 70 70 70 ARUBA 930 1,070 1,300 1,400 1,000 1,000 BAHAMAS 455 450 1,200 900 650 650 BARBADOS 262 205 256 370 211 165 BELIZE 60 39 63 13 43 61 BOLIVIA 239 400 4,043 812 500 589 COLOMBIA 3,204 1,722 1,361 2,365 2,652 2,851 COSTA RICA 7 0 0 0 0 0 CUBA 43,000 27,000 45,000 41,000 40,000 26,500 DOMINICAN RP 26,574 20,000 22,000 23,500 22,000 24,000 ECUADOR 510 104 279 964 621 1,083 ELSALVADOR 1,120 1,362 974 1,176 1,833 998 FRGUIANA 97 151 67 105 72 72 GRENADA 52 0 0 0 0 31 GUADELOUPE 687 741 668 755 616 616 GUATEMALA 2,541 3,000 1,169 1,142 1,420 I ,OJ9 HAITI 4,100 3,400 4,300 2,900 3,100 1,900 HONDURAS 980 569 1,668 1,991 593 1,096 JAMAICA 2,825 1,878 2,9,05 1,329 1,354 996 MARTINIQUE 875 1,058 1,197 979 1,295 1,295 NETH ANTILLE 996 1,170 1,232 2,064 4,243 2,000 NICARAGUA 2,857 2,402 1,023 2,251 1,351 867 PANAMA 55 32 52 54 50 1,127 PARAGUAY 138 2,297 224 2,350 2,000 165 SAINT LUCIA 0 72 188 134 136 117 ST KJTTS 30 20 30 30 30 30 STVINCENT 100 220 100 100 150 150 SURINAME 1,710 2,000 1,200 700 1,400 1,400 TRINIDAD TOBAGO 3,736 3,329 2,450 3,515 4,305 3,480 Sub TJrtJI 98.190 14.151 9~79 J1~ 9\;62S_ 143181

IRAN 14,445 7,617 9,504 4,759 6,000 6,000 IRAQ 9,000 2,000 2,500 1,000 4,800 4,800 LIBYA 12,199 15,900 13,000 6,000 16,498 16,498 MOROCCO 8,328 9,818 7,008 12,267 18,477 9,330 SAUDI ARABIA 23,020 12,819 17,266 15,877 20,923 56,631 SYRIA 5,343 6,348 7,020 10,976 6,811 6,000 TUNISIA 7,372 11,940 8,223 5,955 4,539 2,100 TURKEY 4,920 4,493 3,063 2,606 2,013 3,688 Sub T'Oti( I 35;644 2~5)t 15:'004 H.1!9 17W8 27.298J

IOTAL 433,052 410,840 430,983 483,558 561,004 490,91 5 11 Preliminary.

I SOURCE: FAO DATABASE

Extracted: 7/02/98 46

Page 47: Dairy: World Markets and Trade · United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FD 2-98 July 1998 $/MT Dairy: ANDREW M. NOV AKOVIC, World Markets

WMP IMPORTS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES AND REGIONS (METRIC TONS, FAODATA)

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1/ ASIA

CHINAfHONG KONG 20,852 26,202 54,730 55,611 INDONESIA 2,660 2,718 1,971 2,885 KOREA REP 4,156 880 532 221 MALAYSIA 43,308 48,075 54,407 53,152 PHILIPPINES 29,865 29,965 34,239 36,476 SINGAPORE 33,114 31,069 29,923 25,958 THAILAND 18,286 24,744 41,192 50,430

b 152 '241 163 53 '21 ~ 3

SOUTH AMERICA AND CARIABEAN BARBADOS 686 424 763 581 727 1,564 BELIZE 470 1,163 1,167 1,152 1,005 892 BOLIVIA 4,271 1,710 1,791 3,077 4,199 6,297 COLOMBIA 842 2,875 4,467 1,299 4,117 4,117 COSTA RICA 46 32 11 5 0 0 DOMINICA 610 300 530 330 442 416 ECUADOR 333 18 423 528 523 1,397 ELSALVADOR 8,144 12,115 11,220 10,865 17,565 12,059 FRGUIANA 412 387 381 348 447 447 GRENADA 673 800 616 620 600 594 GUADELOUPE 1,534 1,552 1,667 2,241 1,898 1,898 GUATEMALA 8,018 10,232 9,026 11,962 9,148 11,028 GUYANA 600 1,300 2,800 2,100 3,100 2,500 HONDURAS 3,914 6,450 8,193 4,768 6,304 6,067 J AMAICA 7,464 6,516 6,683 6,927 7,169 MARTINIQUE 1,611 1,119 1,367 1,338 1,338 NICARAGUA 1,680 3,600 3,017 4,413 1,162 PANAMA 1,140 1,926 2,747 4,250 1,524 PARAGUAY 1,530 1,954 4,520 4,000 5,942 SAINT LUCIA 672 577 477 450 514 STVINCENT 220 200 250 270 510 TRINIDAD TOBAGO 6279

u To al 7 71

MOROCCO 3,238 1,565 1,204 SAUDI ARABIA 56,218 13,373 13,385 TUNISIA 7,735 10,093 TURKEY 1,338 2,650

TOTAL 272,675 265,399 251,465 300,570 348,880 322,326 11 Preliminary. SOURCE: FAO DATABASE

Extracted: 7/02/98

47

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