DEMIFER: DEmographic and MIgratory Flows affecting European Regions and cities

Johanna Rotoon behalf of the DEMIFER team

ESPON on the Road transnational event in Vilnius November 11 2014

Demographic State

• At present > 1/4 of the NUTS2 regions in the ESPON area experiences population decline

• Main demographic changes across Europe:• slowing of population growth• Ageing of the population• Decreasing growth rate of working

age population• Increasing importance of intra- and

extra-Europe migration

Demographic State – Population change 2000-2007

Population change by main components

Population increaseOverall population increasePositive migration balance & natural population declineNegative migration balance & natural population increasePopulation declinePositive migration balance & natural population declineNegative migration balance & natural population increaseOverall population decline

Regional differentiation

• Therefore there is not one unambiguous effect of migration and demography on the competitiveness of European regions and thus

Policy strategies• Different types of regions face different challenges -> Policies stimulating i.e. mobility

may have different impacts on different types of regions• Different challenges ask for different mix of policies • Bundles of policies -> need for cross-sectoral thinking

Case studies- Sub-regional variations- More spatial detail

TYPOLOGY OF REGIONS

Typology of the Demographic Status in 2005

• Based on: share of both young adults and elder population, natural population change and net migration rate.

• Retaining favourable trends:• 'Euro Standard'• 'Family Potentials types'

• Dealing with population decline: • 'Challenge of Labour Force'• 'Challenge of Decline'

• Challenging disparities:• 'Challenge of Ageing'• 'Young Potentials‘

• Overseas

Projections

Impact of migration on population change and to labour force

Three reference scenarios:1. Status quo projection - the base period rates and flows

are held constant until 20502. No migration projection - the base period rates and flows

are held constant until 2050 but all migration rates and flows are set to zero (This gives a natural increase only projection)

3. Free movement within Europe but no extra-Europe migration - the base period rates and flows are held constant until 2050 but all extra-Europe migration rates and flows are set to zero

Status Quo

• Under the Status Quo scenario the population declines by 40 million over the 45 years.

• Over 75% of the regions are gainers of migration, and in 1/4 of the regions the 2050 population size will be 30% higher.

• Without changes in demographic and migratory flows, 1/3 of the regions will face considerable population decline (> 20% by 2050).

Future Trends in the Population Change – BSR - STQ

ET2050 - Baseline

• Both calculations based om MULTIPOLES model (CEFMR, IOM)

• Change of base year from 2005 to 2010

Policy scenarios

• Population scenarios are important devices for thinking about alternative futures, taking into account both the mutual relationship between demography & economy and the linkages between economic & social policies and demographic & migratory developments

• Policy scenario implications for:• Mortality• Fertility• Migration

• Population ageing remains the most important demographic challenge in all scenarios

Policy scenarios

Population Change in 2005-2050 - Scenarios

• GSE: Large decreases in mortality, large increases in fertility. Migration levels and regional inequalities increase significantly.

• EME: sustainable economic growth and strong competitive goals. Less favorable developments in mortality and fertility, large increases in migration

• LSE: relatively small decreases in mortality, constant fertility patterns and declining migration levels.

• CME: low economic growth, environmental challenges are not met, and strong competitive goals. Decreasing mortality & fertility, constant migration levels

Development in the BSR region

Labour Force Change in 2005-2050 - Scenarios

• The growth of the labour force does not just depend on the size of the working age population but also on the level of labour force participation rates (that are expected in general to be high especially in Norden)• GSE and EME: high economic growth

will lead to an increasing trend in labour force participation rates.

• LSE: the poor economic and environmental developments lead to falling activity rates everywhere

• CME: activity rates are falling due to a sustained economic downturn. Disparities are growing

• In the future a lot of regions will be struck by a shrinking labour force. In Norden the polarization bw major city regions – rest of the country will increase

Labour Force & Population Change in 2005-2050 – Scenarios for BSR

• Diverse pattern• Nordic challenge with

increasing population but decreasing labour force• Similar development in

Scotland, North-East France and in some Spanish regions

• Sjælland & Midtjylland (DK) and Etelä-Suomi (FI) are the regions with highest difference bw population and labour force change

Labour Force Change in 2010-2030 – ET2050

• We believe policy and demography are linked.• Different policy bundles will influence the direction of change in

future population of Europe, its countries and regions.• If the status quo holds for the next forty years, Europe’s population

will decline and age .• If successful policies, Europe’s population could grow by ~20%.• If policies are not so successful, Europe’s population will hover around

500 million.

• No matter what scenario comes to fruition, life expectancies will increase substantially and the populations of European regions will age dramatically.

• Many regions will lose population through out-migration but the net welfare of today’s population will be improved

Some conclusion

Policy Bundles/Combinations - Migration

• Immigration • May be an answer in many regions and help narrow the gap between

Eastern/Southern regions and Northern /Central Europe. But these policies must be complemented by policies to help the integration of newcomers (language, skills).

• Inter-regional migration• Policies aimed at increasing mobility between European regions may

reduce cohesion, not increase it. Thus policies aimed to stimulate migration are only effective as part of policy bundles to improve living condition in poor regions (jobs, housing, schools).

• Extra-European migration• Immigration policies to facilitate economic migration must be coupled

with successful integration policies to attract higher skilled migrants

• Increasing number of persons and years on labour market• Policies aimed at increasing the age of retirement should be

combined with policies stimulating healthy behaviour• Raising labour force participation results in decreasing

disparities only if the labour market performs well. Thus policies to reduce gender equalities and improve work/child care balance and integration of immigrants are needed for this.

• Economic growth/labour supply• Growth in labour productivity can be raised by technology,

capacity building and investments in education and training, but to be effective these measures need to be complemented by measures to compensate the effects of ageing

Policy Bundles/Combinations - Labour Markets and economy

In conclusion…

• Policies aimed at affecting demographic and migratory flows should not be considered in isolation from other policies, such as housing, labour market, integration of migrants, education, innovation and environmental quality

Thank You!

The DEMIFER project team• NIDI (The Hague, Netherlands) – Lead Partner, state of the art

• Joop de Beer, Nicole van der Gaag, Rob van der Erf, Peter Ekamper• UNIVIE (Vienna, Austria) – Demographical typology

• Heinz Fassmann, Ramon Bauer• IOM/CEFMR (Warsaw, Poland) – Multipoles Projection

• Marek Kupiszewski, Dorota Kupiszewska• Nordregio (Stockholm, Sweden) – Policy & Dissemination

• Daniel Rauhut, Johanna Roto, Lisa van Well• University of Leeds (Leeds, United Kingdom) – Scenarios & population change

• Phil Rees, Peter Boden, Adam Dennett, John Stillwell• PBL (The Hague, Netherlands) – Scenarios & labour force change

• Andries de Jong, Mark ter Veer• CNR (Rome, Italy) – Case studies

• Frank Heins, Corrado Bonafazi, Giuseppe Gesano