demonstration: fvs-fee with svs1 forest change and fire in colorado’s front range a presentation...

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS 1

Forest Change and Fire

in Colorado’s Front Range

A presentation that uses computer-generated drawings and animations to describe the results of forest succession and fire behavior modeling.

Jane Kapler SmithUSDA Forest Service

Rocky Mountain Research StationFire Modeling Institute

20 May 2002


Forests change.Forests change.

More time… more (& bigger) More time… more (& bigger) trees.trees.

c. 1903c. 1903

19919999


18961896

nownow

????????futurefuture


To understand Forest Change:To understand Forest Change:A Mathematical ModelA Mathematical Model

““Forest Vegetation Forest Vegetation Simulator” Forest Simulator” Forest

succession, fuels, & firesuccession, fuels, & fire


19991999

futurefuture??

c. 1903c. 1903


““Model”?Model”?

Models help us Models help us understand… and understand… and predictpredict


Mathematical model:Mathematical model:

•Use data to find patterns Use data to find patterns from the pastfrom the past

•Understand the presentUnderstand the present•Predict the futurePredict the future


““Mathematical Mathematical model”?model”?

Model ofFront Range Precipitation Patterns

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan-Feb Mar-Apr May-Jun Jul-Aug Sep-Oct Nov-Dec

Time of Year

To

tal

Pre

cip

itat

ion

, in

May 1979May 1979


1.1. How do forests change How do forests change over time?over time?

2.2. How do fires influence How do fires influence forests, and forests forests, and forests influence fires?influence fires?

3.3. How do our choices How do our choices influence forests… and influence forests… and fires?fires?


PonderosPonderosa pine in a pine in ColoradoColorado


Cheesman Reservoir: Cheesman Reservoir: Historic data on Ponderosa Pine ForestsHistoric data on Ponderosa Pine Forests

Thanks to: Merrill Kaufmann, Thanks to: Merrill Kaufmann, Paula Fornwalt, Laurie Huckaby, Paula Fornwalt, Laurie Huckaby, and Jason Stoker, Rocky Mtn. and Jason Stoker, Rocky Mtn. Research StationResearch Station


1.1. How do forests change over How do forests change over time?time?


3.3. How can our choices How can our choices influence forests… and influence forests… and fires?fires?


The players:The players: ponderosa ponderosa pine…pine…

0.5 0.5 inchinch


3+ inches3+ inches

Fire resistant buds & bark at 7 years oldFire resistant buds & bark at 7 years old


… … and Douglas-and Douglas-firfir

0.1 to 0.2 0.1 to 0.2 inchinch


Reproduces well even in shadeReproduces well even in shade


18991899

20002000


18961896

18991899

c. c. 19031903


Data DescribingPatches on the Landscape, 1900 and 2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

1900 2000

% o

f la

nd

scap

e

open

medium

dense

Medium-Medium-46%46%

Dense-Dense-70%70%

Open-Open-18%18%

Modeled Modeled examplesexamples

::


20002000M

odele

d

Modele

d

20002000

Dat

Dat

aa

~1896~1896

Dat

Dat

aa


Modeled Modeled Patches on Patches on

the the LandscapeLandscape

19001900

20002000


19001910192019301940195019601970198019902000

Modeled Modeled Succession:Succession:


19001910192019301940195019601970198019902000


19001900 1900190019101910192019201930193019401940195019501960196019701970198019801990199020002000


Data Describing Number of Trees by Size

0

100

200

300

400

1900 2000

tree

s/ac

re

< 6"

> 6"


1900

1900

1910192019301940195019601970198019902000

Modeled Modeled SuccessioSuccessio

nn


1900

19001910192019301940195019601970198019902000

““ladder fuels”ladder fuels”


Data Showing Number of Small Trees by Species

0

50

100

150

200

1900 2000

tree

s/ac

re <

6"

dia

met

er

Ponderosa

Doug-fir

Spruce

Aspen


Data Showing Number of Small Trees by Species

0

50

100

150

200

1900 2000

tree

s/ac

re <

6"

dia

met

er

Ponderosa

Doug-fir

Spruce

Aspen1900190019101910192019201930193019401940195019501960196019701970198019801990199020002000


1900190019101910192019201930193019401940195019501960196019701970198019801990199020002000


How do Front Range forests change over time?

• Increased crown cover

• Increased number of small trees

• Small Douglas-firs outnumber all other species and all other sizes.



2.2. How do fires influence forests, How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires?and forests influence fires?

3.3. How can our choices influence How can our choices influence forests… and fires?forests… and fires?


All fires All fires are not are not equalequal

Surface Surface firefire

Passive Passive crown firecrown fire

Active crown Active crown firefire


20002000M

odele

d

Modele

d

20002000

Dat

Dat

aa

~1896~1896

Dat

Dat

aa


Modeling Cheesman Historic Modeling Cheesman Historic Fires:Fires:


Cheesman Historic Fires AgainCheesman Historic Fires Again


18991899


1900

2000


Model fire behavior:Model fire behavior:

• One patch of forestOne patch of forest

• 1900 (open crown cover)1900 (open crown cover)

• vs. 2000 (medium to dense vs. 2000 (medium to dense crown cover)crown cover)


Modeled fire spread: 5 mph Modeled fire spread: 5 mph windswinds

19001900

20002000


5 mph winds again5 mph winds again

19001900

20002000


Active Active crown crown firefire

Passive Passive crown crown firefire

Surface Surface firefire


Surface & Passive Surface & Passive CrowningCrowning

Active Active CrowningCrowning

Open

Open

(1900

(1900

))

Dens

Dens

e e

(2000

(2000

))

Modeled Potential for Active Modeled Potential for Active Crown FireCrown Fire

0 10

20

30

40

50

Win

d,

Win

d,

mp

hm

ph

60


19001900 20002000

5 mph wind5 mph wind

40 mph 40 mph windwind

After After fire– fire– modeled modeled view view from from aboveabove


Model Predictions of Fuel Consumed

0

10

20

30

1900 2000

T/a

c 5 mph wind

40 mph wind


Model Predictions of Smoke Production

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1900 2000

T/a

c p

arti

cula

te m

atte

r <

2.5

5 mph wind

40 mph wind


How has succession in Front How has succession in Front Range Range forests influenced fire?forests influenced fire?

• Greater risk of active crown fireGreater risk of active crown fire

• More smokeMore smoke

• Greater likelihood of erosionGreater likelihood of erosion


18991899

20002000



2.2. How do fires influence forests, How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires?and forests influence fires?

3.3. How can our choices influence How can our choices influence forests… and fires?forests… and fires?


Modele

d

Modele

d

20502050

No

dat

a

No

dat

a

20502050

20002000

Modele

d

Modele

d

20002000

Dat

Dat

aa~1896~1896

Dat

Dat

aa


Modele

d

Modele

d

20502050

Modele

d

Modele

d

205020501900-1900-20002000

Data

Data

?? ??

Modele

d

Modele

d

20502050


20002000

????

??

????

????

20502050

Choice 1: Choice 1:

““Hands off”Hands off”

20502050

Choice 2: Choice 2:

Thin from below, Thin from below, prescribed burnprescribed burn


2050 2050 - - 1: “hands off”1: “hands off” 2050 2050 - - 2: Treat 25%2: Treat 25%

2000200019001900


20002000

20502050

Choice 1: Choice 1:


20502050

Choice 2: Choice 2:



1900

170 trees/ac

2000

409 trees

200020102020203020402050

547 trees

Modeled Modeled SuccessiSuccessi

onon


200020102020203020402050

547 trees


19001900

20002000

Modeled Modeled SuccessionSuccession

200020002010201020202020203020302040204020502050


Den

seD

en

ser r (2

05

0(2

05

0))

Surface & Passive CrowningSurface & Passive Crowning Active Active CrowningCrowning

Op

en

O

pen

(1

90

0(1

90

0))

Den

se

Den

se

(20

00

(20

00

))

Modeled Potential for Active Modeled Potential for Active Crown FireCrown Fire0 1

020

30

40

50

Win

d,

Win

d,

mp

hm

ph

60


20002000

20502050

Choice 1: Choice 1:


20502050

Choice 2: Choice 2:



Modeled Treatment and Modeled Treatment and SuccessionSuccession20012007– after thinning &

fire20102020203020402050

Ponderosa Ponderosa pinepine

Douglas-Douglas-firfir

AspeAspenn


20012007– after thinning & fire20102020203020402050


tr

eate

treate

d

d

(2010)

(2010)

tr

eate

treate

d

d

(2050)

(2050)

Surface & Passive CrowningSurface & Passive Crowning Active Active CrowningCrowning

Dense

D

ense

(2

000)

(2000)

Modeled Potential for Active Modeled Potential for Active Crown FireCrown Fire0 1

020

30

40

50

Win

d,

Win

d,

mp

hm

ph

60


20002000

???? ?? ???? ????20502050

Choice 1: Choice 1:


20502050

Choice 2: Choice 2:



PonderosPonderosa pine in a pine in ColoradoColorado


1.1. How do forests change How do forests change over time?over time?


3.3. How do our choices How do our choices influence forests… and influence forests… and fires?fires?



2.2. How do fires influence How do fires influence forests, and forests influence forests, and forests influence fires?fires?

3.3. How can our choices How can our choices influence forests… and fires?influence forests… and fires?

1896 2000


““Models”Models”


Thank you!Thank you!Thanks for help:Thanks for help:

Arapaho-Roosevelt N.F., Bitterroot N.F., Amy Arapaho-Roosevelt N.F., Bitterroot N.F., Amy Smith, Carol Akerelrea, Cass Cairns, Dennis Smith, Carol Akerelrea, Cass Cairns, Dennis Simmerman, Denver Water (photo archives), Simmerman, Denver Water (photo archives), Don Zimmerman, Duncan Lutes, Dwain Smith, Don Zimmerman, Duncan Lutes, Dwain Smith, Fire Use Management Team, Jason Stoker, Jim Fire Use Management Team, Jason Stoker, Jim Menakis, Joe Scott, John Hutmacher, Joint Fire Menakis, Joe Scott, John Hutmacher, Joint Fire Sciences Project, Larry Bradshaw, Laurie Sciences Project, Larry Bradshaw, Laurie Huckaby, Merrill Kaufmann, Mick Harrington, Huckaby, Merrill Kaufmann, Mick Harrington, Nick Crookston, Paul Moore, Nick Crookston, Paul Moore, Paula Fornwalt,Paula Fornwalt, Rick Fletcher, Sherry Ritter, Rick Fletcher, Sherry Ritter, Staff at Forest Staff at Forest Management Service CenterManagement Service Center, Steve Arno, , Steve Arno, Wayne CookWayne Cook


Publications documenting some of the information in this presentation:

Kaufmann, Merrill R.; Fornwalt, Paula J.; Huckaby, Laurie S.; Stoker, Jason M. 2001. Cheesman Lake– a historical ponderosa pine landscape guiding restoration in the South Platte watershed of the Colorado Front Range. In: Vance, Regina K.; Covington, W. Wallace; Edminster, Carleton B., tech. coords. Ponderosa pine ecosystems restoration and conservation: steps toward stewardship; 2000 April 25-27; Flagstaff, AZ. Proceedings RMRS-P-00. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Kaufmann, Merrill R.; Huckaby, Laurie; Gleason, Paul. 2000. Ponderosa pine in the Colorado Front Range: long historical fire and tree recruitment intervals and a case for landscape heterogeneity. In: Neuenschwander, L. R.; Ryan, K. C.; Gollberg, G. E.; Greer, J. D., eds. Crossing the millennium: integrating spatial technologies and ecological principles for a new age in fire management, Vol. 1. Moscow, ID: University of Idaho and International Association of Wildland Fire: 153-160.

Kaufmann, Merrill R.; Regan, Claudia M.; Brown, Peter M. 2000. Heterogeneity in ponderosa pine/Douglas-fir forests: age and size structure in unlogged and logged landscapes of central Colorado. Canadian Journal of Forestry Research. 30:698-711.

demonstration: fvs-fee with svs1 forest change and fire in colorado’s front range a presentation...

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