‘Disaster and Emergency Relief Framework’

IRDA, NDMA & FICCI Seminar

A Presentation A Presentation

Man-made Disasters versus Act of Godbyby

Mr. Yogesh LohiyaMr. Yogesh LohiyaCMD, GIC ReCMD, GIC Re

1111thth August 2010, New Delhi August 2010, New Delhi

Section ISection IAct of God?

-A Global Perspective

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DisastersNatural Vs Man-made

• Man-made (generally localized) Industrial accidents.

• Natural (Act of God) (area of spread is vast) Earthquakes/ Tsunami/ Cyclones.

• High Volume of losses in both cases. • Mitigation (long term process) & relief

measures (immediate) cannot be largely different.

• Preventive measures are not a general trend and largely ignored by the society.

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• People do not voluntarily adopt simple and cost effective loss prevention measures

• Underestimate the likelihood of a disaster more so happening to them.

• Myopic behavior impedes the process of loss prevention.

• Faith in the government to take steps to prevent & protect from disasters.

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DisastersNatural Vs Man-made

Catastrophes : Some Facts

• There are twice as many people on Earth today as there were in 1950.

• A greater concentration of values than in 1950.– 4 times more globally– 6 times more in third world countries

• Most of the growth concentrated in coastal areas– More prone to weather risks (cyclones)

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Catastrophes: Some Facts• Catastrophes are more frequent now

–3 fold increase in numbers as in 1950

• Catastrophes are more severe in intensity–8 fold increase in severity as in 1950

• Increase in insured losses- 15 X.

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Catastrophes in 2009

• Total Catastrophes: 288– Natural Catastrophes: 133– Man made Catastrophes: 155

• Loss of lives: 15,000– Natural Catastrophes: 9,000– Man made Catastrophes: 6,000

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Number of Cat Events-1970-2009

8Swiss Re, sigma No 1/2010

Nat Cats in 2009

• Hydrological disasters (floods) remained the most common disasters in 2009, accounting for 53.7 percent.

• Followed by storms (hurricanes) accounting for 25.4 percent.

• Geophysical disasters (earthquakes, volcanoes) accounted for 2.7 percent.

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Nat Cat :1970-2009Number of Victims

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Catastrophes in 2009

• Economic damages: US $ 62 billion– Natural Catastrophes: US $ 41 billion – Man made Catastrophes: US $ 21 billion

• Cost of Man-made disasters (insured losses): US $ 4 billion

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Insured Cat Losses 1970-2009

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Section IISection IIExposure to Natural Catastrophes in India

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INDIA – INDIA – Vulnerability To Natural Catastrophes Vulnerability To Natural Catastrophes

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• Indian sub-continent Indian sub-continent considered one of the considered one of the most hazard-prone most hazard-prone countries in the worldcountries in the world

• 85% of land area 85% of land area

vulnerable to various vulnerable to various types of Natural types of Natural CatastrophesCatastrophes

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EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

• Seismically active• 59% of prone to EQs

• Four EQs above 8 & ten above 7.5 on Richter Scale in the last 100 years.

• Seven in the last 2 decades

• Dense Population & Old Construction adds to the problem.

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CYCLONES•8041 km long coastline•Large Coastline; large population; large destruction.

•Tropical Cyclones generally strike Eastern coast•Western Coast too is struck•Thunderstorms (Nor’westers) common in NE, NW, Central & SW India

•Cyclone associated strong winds & rains compound the destruction. •Floods & Coastal Inundations too are a risk.•15 cyclones have struck the Indian coast in last 100 years.

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FLOODS• India is the 2nd most flood

affected country after Bangladesh

• 40 mln hectares land mass prone to floods; 8 mln hectares affected annually.

• Rising population; developmental activities in flood plains make it more disastrous.

• Climate change also makes weather volatile leading to disasters.

• Avg. Annual Loss: US$ 400Mln.

• Urban Floods & Inundations are a new phenomena now.• Mumbai Floods (2005)

Section IIISection IIIAre Natural Catastrophes

Act of God?

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Cat Events in India

• “Disastrous Weather Event” in Leh on 6.8.10• IOC Jaipur Fire 2009• Mahul Oil Installations in Mumbai• Surat Floods 2005 • Mumbai Floods 2005 • Plague/H1N1 Flu/ Bird Flu- 1994/ 2009 & 2010

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Catastrophic Events- Impact on India

• Loss of Life & Property on a large scale• Majority of the affected uninsured• Direct Losses due to natural disasters

amount to (average per annum)-– 2% of India’s Gross Domestic Product– 12% of Federal Government’s Revenues

• All alleviation/ mitigation efforts post-event

• Disruption of Trade & Commerce

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Catastrophic Events- Impact on India

• Some of the worst CAT losses have occurred in India

• Top in natural-disaster-caused mortality in 2009: 1806 victims in India

• Low values & Low penetration are the causes• Catastrophe Risk Mapping is not complete• Detailed data is not available• Geographical Position makes us vulnerable

to events occurring in neighbouring areas. – (Tsunami/ Earthquakes)

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T h a n k Y o u

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