Divided Korea:

Genesis of a Nuclear Flashpoint

Whence the “Axis of Evil?”

Two Koreas Today

South Korea GDP Per Capita

$20,400 Military Expenses

$21.06 billion Military as share of

GDP 2.6% Population 48,846,823 Infant mortality

6.16 deaths/1,000 live births

North Korea GDP Per Capita

$1,800 Military Expenses

$5.21 Billion Military as share of

GDP 31% Population 23,113,019 Infant Mortality

23.29 deaths/1,000 live births

Geography

Geography Division roughly

along the 38th Parallel

North Korea: Communist, anti-American

South Korea: Capitalist, pro-American

Korean History 1910 Japanese Annexation

Western and US Complicity Taft-Katsura Agreement

Domestic Independence Movements March 1st Movement, 1919

Independence Movements in Exile US Based: Syngman Rhee China and Soviet Based: Kim Il Sung

Korean History Repression under Japan

Japanese Language Japanese Names Japanese Education Forced labor and military service, “Comfort Women”

WW II in Korean History

World War II

Pearl Harbor

US Plan: Germany first, then Japan

WW II in Korean History

Cairo Conference: 1943

Korea to be occupied

Korean Independence “in due time”

WW II in Korean History

Yalta Conference: Feb. 4—11, 1945 USSR to join war on Japan 3 months after

German surrender USSR to participate in occupation of Korea

Potsdam Conference July 17—Aug. 2, 1945 Yalta Conference arrangements for Korea

Confirmed

WW II in Korean History August 6, 1945, Atom bomb on Hiroshima August 8, 1945, Russians enter the war

against Japan, fulfilling their Yalta Conference agreement

August 9, 1945, Atom bomb on Nagasaki August 10/11, 1945 (about midnight), young

colonels, Dean Rusk and Charles Bonesteel, under orders from Gen. McArthur, draw a division line at the 38th parallel, keeping the capital city, Seoul, in the American area.

August 15, 1945, Japan Surrenders.

Cold War History: Korea USA/USSR tensions emerge almost at

once

USA envisions capitalist democracy

USSR envisions communist government

South Korean History October, 1945

Syngman Rhee returned to South Korea from the US

Welcomed as a nationalist resistance leader by US leadership.

North Korean History October, 1945

Kim Il Sung returns to North Korea from Manchuria

Welcomed by Soviets as a nationalist resistance leader

Cold War History: US Containment

1947

George Kennan writes Mr. X article

Coins term and policy of Containment

Two Koreas Emerging Cold War conflict between USA

and USSR Joint elections impractical Two separate Korean Governments

established 1948 “Elections” in both North and South

Korea

Two Koreas Republic of

Korea (South)

Syngman Rhee’s Government 1948-1960

Pro-American Capitalist Anti-communist Pro Christian Authoritarian Corrupt Inept

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North)

Kim Il Sung’s Government 1948-1994

Pro-Soviet / Pro-Chinese Anti-American Communist Becomes anti-religion Authoritarian Isolationist

Korean War January 12, 1950 United States Secretary of

State Dean Acheson US Press Club: RE: America's

Pacific defense perimeter Implies that the U.S. might

not fight over Korea This omission encouraged

the North and the Soviets

Korean War War begins June 25, 1950: North Korea

Invades Incheon landing, September 15 -

September 28, 1950 Chinese entry, October, 1950 January 4, 1951, Communist Chinese and

North Korean forces recapture Seoul. MacArthur was removed from command by

President Truman on April 11, 1951. Stalemate, July, 1951

Korean Division

Originally 38th parallel

Post Korean War: Red line called the DMZ

Korean War Ends

Cease Fire July 27, 1953 Neither Korea Signed Armistice State of war continues

Both Koreas considered themeslves the only legitimate authority

Both Koreas had aurhoritarian dictatorships at least through 1987

Post Korean War History South Korea: 40,000 US troops

remain to guard South Korea US supports pro American authoritarian

regimes

North Korea: Chinese troops leave North argues that South Korea is an

occupied country, not independent North sees US troops as a threat

South Korean History

South Korea

Corruption, incompetence, and cheating on elections leads to Syngman Rhee’s departure 1960

Military Coup brings Military to power in South Korea

South Korean History Park Chung Hee

leads South Korea Military Dictator Harsh discipline Anti-communist Economic

development for national security

Fantastic economic growth

Terrible human rights

North Korean History Kim Il Sung in North

Korea Juche Ideology

National independence

Aligned with USSR and China

Plays them off against each other until 1991

Standard pattern of brinksmanship to get what he wants

North Korea North Korea sees 40,000 US troops on its

southern border as a major threat South Korea is simply a colony of the US. NO need to work with SK, it is the US that matters.

Develops Juche ideology of independence Economic independence Military independence Focus on People’s needs

In reality, Juche is a failure both in independence and in People’s needs.

North Korea Authoritarian

Anti religious persecution

Inefficient production, very little economic growth

Becomes progressively less secure as South Korea outgrows the North

North Korea Cold War ends Communist Block Collapses 1991 North Korea can’t play China and Russia

against each other

South Korean President Roh Tae Woo (1988-1993) launches “Norde Politic” drive and normalizes relations with China and Russia, Isolating North Korea

Northern Crisis Isolated North Korea has difficulty

feeding its population Bad weather Communist incentive structure Poor distribution No more cheap resources from China and

Russia 25-30% of GDP spent on military

Nuclear Crisis North Korea launches Nuclear program, 1990 1994: NK Withdraws from membership with

International Atomic Energy Agency Jimmy Carter visits Korea representing Clinton

Administration

1994 Agreed Framework negotiated N. Korea gives up nuclear weapons for energy

support Korean Economic Development Organization

(KEDO) formed to help N. Korean energy development.

Relevant History Kim Il Sung dies in 1994

Kim Jong Il succeeds his father and continues his father’s government patterns

US and most experts expected North Korea to collapse under economic strains and leadership transition.

Nuclear Crisis 1994 Agreed Framework

DPRK's nuclear power plants would be replaced with light water reactor (LWR) power plants by a target date of 2003.

Oil for heating and electricity production would be provided while DPRK's reactors were shut down, until completion of the first LWR power unit.

Nuclear Crisis 1994 Agreed Framework

The two sides would move toward full normalization of political and economic relations.

The U.S. would provide formal assurances to the DPRK, against the threat or use of nuclear weapons by the U.S.

The DPRK would take steps to implement the Korean Peninsula Denuclearization Declaration.

Nuclear Crisis 1994 Agreed Framework

The DPRK would remain a party to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.

IAEA ad hoc and routine inspections would resume for facilities not subject to the freeze.

Existing spent nuclear fuel stocks would be stored and ultimately disposed of without reprocessing in the DPRK.

DPRK would come into full compliance with its safeguards agreement with the IAEA

Nuclear Crisis US compliance with Agreed

Framework is spotty

North Korea doesn’t get adequate energy

NK continues pattern of “brinksmanship” to improve their position

South Korean Response

President Kim Dae Jung (1998-2003) Initiates “Sunshine Policy” Attempts for the

first time to engage NK with positive incentives

Negotiates some trade and family exchanges

Axis of Evil and Bush Doctrine

2002 State of the Union President Bush includes North Korea in “Axis of Evil” with Iraq and Iran

Iraq Invasion

President Bush declares the “Bush Doctrine” of preemptive war

US invades Iraq

North Korean Reaction 2003 Withdraw from Nuclear

Non-proliferation Treaty

Declares NK a nuclear power

Insists on addressing only US, not 6-party talks

South Korean Response

President Roh Moo Hyun (2003--) Continues Sunshine policy Disagrees with

Bush administration on hard line approach

Conclusions North Korea’s Nuclear threat derives

from North Korean perception of insecurity

Korea’s division created that insecurity

North Korea sees US as the core threat (40,000 US troops aimed at them)

Bush Doctrine and US behavior since 2001 reinforces perception of threat

Conclusions North Korean leadership is NOT crazy

nor suicidal

North Korea uses aggressive negotiating tactics to achieve its ends

North Korea is unlikely to USE nuclear weapons

Panic or over-reaction to North Korean provocations are counterproductive