dnb renewable energy roadshow vienna en 20120328
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DNB Renewable Energy
DNB ECO Absolute Return Long only and Long/Short products within the Renewable Energy sector
March 2012 - Vienna
Jon Sigurdsen, Portfolio Manager
The DNB GROUP • One of the world's leading Energy, Shipping and Offshore banks
• Represented at 274 locations in Norway with some 14.000 employees
• Represented in 20 countries with over 24 rep. offices and international branches around the world
Luxembourg
Established: 1990
Staff: 6
Sales and marketing
Chennai
Established: 1997
Staff: 2
Investments
Hong Kong
Established: 1995
Staff: 9
Investments
Scandinavia
Oslo (HQ) / Bergen
Established: 1966
Staff: 128
Investments, back office and
sales operations
Stockholm
Established: 1990
Staff: 74
Investments, back office and
sales operations
DNB Asset Management - Our footprint
2
DNB Asset Management
DNB is the third largest Asset Manager in the Nordic Region
• More than 75 portfolio managers and analysts with more than 61 billion EUR under
management
• A global manager with offices in Hong Kong, Chennai, Stockholm, Bergen and Oslo
• The asset manager is 100% owned by Oslo-listed DNB Group, the third largest
Financial Group in Scandinavia
• One of the largest Shipping and Energy banks in the world
We hold a strong commitment to hedge funds
• We manage both single style hedge funds and fund of hedge funds
• Total AUM in hedge funds approximately € 1,5 billion
• New funds are seeded with internal money
• Hedge fund management is a natural extension of our successful long only global
platform
3
The Team Jon Sigurdsen is lead portfolio manager for the long/short and long only renewable energy strategies with DNB
Asset Management. While starting up the Absolute Return strategy during the fall of 2099, Mr. Sigurdsen has
since June 2008 run the renewable energy long/short part of Skandia Global Hedge fund with great success.
Mr. Sigurdsen joined the technology team at DNB Asset Management in 2005 from Carnegie Securities where
he was an equity analyst. He was appointed co-manager for the Renewable Energy strategy in 2007 and has
also been responsible fro the managing the semiconductor universe in the Global Equity portfolio. Between 1998
and 2004 Mr. Sigurdsen was an equity analyst at Nordea Securities in Oslo, specializing in the IT, Telecom and
Media sectors.
He received his BA in Business from the Liverpool John Moores University and speaks Norwegian and English.
Christian Rom is co-portfolio manager for the long/short and long only renewable energy strategies with DNB
Asset Management, where he has been supporting Jon Sigurdsen since joining the team.
Mr. Rom joined DNB Asset Management in 2010 from Carnegie Securities where he was an equity analyst for
3.5 years.
He received his Master in Business and Economics from the Norwegian School of Management (BI) in Norway
and speaks Norwegian and English.
Investment results:
Long only renewable energy since April 2007: IR 1.66
Long only semiconductor since April 2006: IR 0.82
Long/short hedge renewable energy for Skandia FoHF since June 2008: IR 0.91
Running ~€500m in Renewable Energy mandates of which ~ €100m in hedge
Source: Internal 4
DNB Renewable Energy Fund Long only equity fund within the Renewable Energy sector
“DNB bucked the trend of negative returns among clean energy funds. The fund ended up taking the
top spot with a gain of 12.9%. It retained its top position even on a volatility adjusted basis. Selected
constitutions in the solar and energy efficiency sectors contributed to the gains made in 2010“
Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2010
Clean energy funds - Performance summary
Volatility
Fund 5 Year 3 Year 1 Year 5 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2010
DnB NOR 10.5 % -7.9 % 12.9 % 10.1 % -8.4 % 6.4 % 13.9 %
Vontobel Global Trend New Power 1.8 % -13.5 % 6.2 % 1.8 % -13.5 % 6.2 % 15.0 %
PowerShares Clean Energy -10.7 % -25.7 % 1.3 % -8.5 % -27.9 % -5.5 % 22.5 %
New Alternatives 0.1 % -9.4 % -1.5 % 2.6 % -12.0 % -8.1 % 19.6 %
Pictet Clean Energy NA -13.9 % -2.0 % NA -16.6 % -8.6 % 14.2 %
Sarasin New Power NA -21.9 % -6.2 % NA -21.9 % -6.2 % 14.2 %
Blackrock BGF New Energy -2.4 % -19.1 % -6.5 % 0.0 % -21.4 % -12.8 % 16.6 %
Sarasin New Energy -4.8 % -22.6 % -6.6 % -4.8 % -22.6 % -6.6 % 14.0 %
SAM Smart Energy 5.4 % -9.5 % -8.1 % 5.4 % -9.5 % -8.1 % 15.7 %
PowerShares Global Clean Energy NA -21.7 % -10.2 % NA -23.9 % -16.2 % 19.6 %
Lyxor New Energy NA -25.3 % -12.2 % NA -25.3 % -12.2 % 16.9 %
Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy NA -28.6 % -14.2 % NA -30.6 % -20.0 % 22.2 %
Calvert Global Alternative Energy NA -23.5 % -14.4 % NA -25.6 % -20.1 % 17.3 %
Blackrock New Energy IT -5.1 % -21.8 % -16.2 % -0.9 % -17.7 % -19.1 % 20.7 %
iShares S&P Clean Energy NA -33.5 % -23.2 % NA -30.0 % -25.8 % 19.4 %
Claymore MAC Global Solar / Guggenheim Solar ETF NA NA -23.6 % NA NA -28.8 % 29.7 %
Average -0.7 % -19.9 % -7.8 % 0.7 % -20.5 % -11.6 % 18.2 %
Median -1.2 % -21.8 % -7.4 % 0.9 % -21.9 % -10.4 % 17.1 %
WilderHill New Energy GI Index -2.8 % -20.1 % -8.4 % -0.4 % -22.4 % -14.6 % 15.1 %
Performance (EUR) Performance (Local)
DNB rated #1 clean energy fund by BNEF Rated #1 for all periods measured (1, 3 and 5 years)
6 Note: 5 year and 3 year performance reflects annualized % changes
DNB Renewable Energy
7 Source: Internal updated internal as of March 17, 2012. Please note that historical performance is no guarantee of future returns. Future returns will depend on market development, manager skill, portfolio / fund's risk exposure and the costs associated with the management / investment. The return can at times be negative
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
DNB Renewable Energy BM NEXUST
Performance distribution (arithmetic)
8 Source: Internal March 2012
Annual Outperformance Monthly histogram
Top holdings valuation
9 Source: Internal/Bloomberg February 2012
Stock Weight Bet P/E current P/Tang. Book Business
Johnson Controls 4.89 % 3.51 % 11.8 7.00 Energy storage/saving
Green Plains Renewable Energy 4.72 % 4.72 % 11.6 0.70 Biofuel
China Suntien 4.54 % 3.99 % 10.3 1.81 Wind farms
EDP Renovaveis 4.19 % 2.85 % 20.1 0.83 Wind farms
Prysmian 4.15 % 4.15 % 12.7 9.82 Grid
Renewable Energy Group 4.10 % 4.10 % 6.1 n.a. Biofuel
Acciona 3.55 % 2.15 % 19.7 0.88 Wind farms
China Metal Recycling 3.54 % 3.54 % 6.3 2.00 Energy saving
Tianneng Power International Ltd 3.53 % 3.53 % 6.2 1.87 Energy storage
General Cable Corp 3.42 % 3.42 % 11.8 1.60 Grid
AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group. 3.21 % 3.21 % 9.6 2.06 Equipment/metals
Abengoa 3.21 % 1.96 % 8.8 n.a. Biofuel and various
Veeco 3.17 % 1.50 % 26.1 1.54 LED
Verbund 2.91 % 1.06 % 14.0 2.05 Hydro
Nexans 2.62 % 2.62 % 12.6 1.22 Grid
Median 11.8 1.8
Sector allocation - Result from bottom-up stock selection
Source: Internal as of February 2012
Adding in Biofuel (16% 19%), funding with Power Gen (24% 21%)
10
23%
21%
15% 15%
11%
7%
6%
0%
24% 24%
10%
3%
7%
21%
4%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Savin
g
Pow
er G
en
Bio
fuel
Grid
Sto
rag
e /
Tra
nspo
rt
Sola
r
Ma
teria
ls
Win
d
Fund Index
Geographic allocation - Result from bottom-up stock selection
Source: Internal as of 31st January 2012
Adding in Americas (44% → 47%), funding with Europe (33% → 31%)
11
46%
3%
22%
30% Americas
Japan
APAC (ex JP)
Europe
DNB Renewable Energy - Fund profile
Fund managers: Jon Sigurdsen/Christian Rom
Strategy: Long only bottom-up equity fund
Fund type UCITS: FCP Long only equity fund
Benchmark: NEX - Wilderhill New Energy Global Innovation Index
AUM: EUR 350m
Target alpha: 7-12 % gross
Risk target: 8-12 % TE
Number of holdings: 45-75
Country range: Global
Turnover: ca. 200 %
Inception date: 16 August 2007
12
Terms - LU0302296149
13 As of November 2011
Liquidity and NAV: Daily
Management fee: 1.5 %
Performance fee: 20 %
Front end fee: Maximum 5 %
Back end fee: No
High watermark: No
Domicile: Luxembourg
Classes: EUR, SEK and NOK
Minimum investment: EUR 1000 / SEK 10 000 / NOK 10 000
DNB ECO Absolute Return Fund Long/Short equity fund within the Renewable Energy sector
15
Skandia Global Hedge – the pre-runner to ECO
Source: Internal updated internal as of March 17, 2012. Please note that historical performance is no guarantee of future returns. Future returns will depend on market development, manager skill, portfolio / fund's risk exposure and the costs associated with the management / investment. The return can at times be negative.
-20.00%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
-6.0 %
-4.0 %
-2.0 %
0.0 %
2.0 %
4.0 %
6.0 %
8.0 %
18.0
6.2
008
18.1
1.2
008
18.0
4.2
009
18.0
9.2
009
18.0
2.2
010
18.0
7.2
010
18.1
2.2
010
18.0
5.2
011
18.1
0.2
011
Accumulated Return
Daily Relative
Portfolio (Skandia Global Hedge MILJO)
Benchmark (OMRX TBILL)
16
DNB ECO Absolute Return
Source: Internal updated internal as of March 26th, 2012. Please note that historical performance is no guarantee of future returns. Future returns will depend on market development, manager skill, portfolio / fund's risk exposure and the costs associated with the management / investment. The return can at times be negative.
Performance +14.29 % return since inception in December 2010.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
DNB ECO Absolute Return EUR BM GETB1 BM
Accumulated return on long and short adj. for NEX return
Source: internal, Figures based on gross data before fees
* We run a historical simulation based on the current weights for both the absolute portfolio and the investment universe (NEX) and then perform a uniformly weighted least square regression using three years of data. The coefficient (slope) from the regression analysis represents the beta for the portfolio. This process is then repeated for different periods in time
17
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
31.1
0.2
010
30.1
1.2
010
31.1
2.2
010
31.0
1.2
011
28.0
2.2
011
31.0
3.2
011
30.0
4.2
011
31.0
5.2
011
30.0
6.2
011
31.0
7.2
011
31.0
8.2
011
30.0
9.2
011
31.1
0.2
011
30.1
1.2
011
31.1
2.2
011
31.0
1.2
012
29.0
2.2
012
Adj short Adj long
Net invested and beta development
18
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
28.1
0.2
010
28.1
1.2
010
28.1
2.2
010
28.0
1.2
011
28.0
2.2
011
31.0
3.2
011
30.0
4.2
011
31.0
5.2
011
30.0
6.2
011
31.0
7.2
011
31.0
8.2
011
30.0
9.2
011
31.1
0.2
011
30.1
1.2
011
31.1
2.2
011
31.0
1.2
012
29.0
2.2
012
Net Beta (3Y)
Source: Internal as of February 29, 2012
Current portfolio weekly performance vs NEX index
Source: Internal as of February 29, 2012
Completely uncorrelated to market moves
19
-4.0 %
-3.0 %
-2.0 %
-1.0 %
0.0 %
1.0 %
2.0 %
3.0 %
4.0 %
5.0 %
-8.0 % -6.0 % -4.0 % -2.0 % 0.0 % 2.0 % 4.0 % 6.0 %
Perf
orm
an
ce
Net regional exposure % of NAV Result of bottom-up picks but looking for <20% net exposure
Source: Internal as of February 29, 2012 20
14%
-16% -9%
0%
-10%
72%
17%
43%
32%
164%
57%
33%
52%
32%
174%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
North America Japan Asia (ex Japan) Europe Total
Net Long Short
Fund sector attribution since inception
Source: Internal as of February 29, 2012 21
-2.0 %
24.7 %
-4.6 %
1.9 %
4.4 %
-4.7 %
-6.3 %
6.0 %
0.1 %
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Net sector exposure % of NAV Result of bottom-up picks
Source: Internal as of February 29, 2012 22
-1%
-26%
20%
-14%
-34%
10%
17% 16%
3% 0%
15%
24%
14%
33%
10%
28%
25%
16%
1%
42%
4%
28%
67%
0%
11% 9%
13%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Wind Solar Biofuel Services &Suppliers
Energy Saving Hydrogen &Fuel Cells
PowerStorage
Grid &Transmission
PowerGeneration
Net Long Short
Geographical return since inception
Source: internal, Figures based on gross data before fees
8%
6%
4% 4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Asia (ex Japan) Europe America Japan
Performance – largest contributors YTD
24 Source: Internal as of February 29, 2012
Contributors Selection
OCI Co Ltd 3.82 %
Phoenix Solar AG 3.71 %
Capstone Turbine Corp 3.36 %
Wacker Chemie AG 3.05 %
Powercom Co Ltd 2.75 %
Gamesa Corp 2.64 %
Gintech Energy Corp 2.48 %
centrotherm photovoltaics AG 2.42 %
Dynapack International Technology Corp 2.33 %
EMCORE Corp 2.33 %
Detractors Selection
A Power Energy Generation Systems Ltd -4.84 %
Solar Millennium AG -4.46 %
EnerNOC Inc -3.65 %
Comverge Inc -3.65 %
China High Speed Transm. Eq. Group Ltd -3.53 %
Landi Renzo SPA -3.53 %
China Ming Yang Wind Power Group Limited - ADR -3.36 %
Advanced Battery Technologies Inc -3.21 %
STR Holdings Inc(New) -3.19 %
Exide Technologies -3.17 %
Largest positions
Source: Internal as of February 29, 2012 25
Long Positions Weight MCAP
Tianneng Power International Ltd 4.35 % 606
Darling International Inc 4.12 % 2,011
Renewable Energy Group Inc 4.08 % 69
Prysmian SpA 4.06 % 3,853
HORIBA Ltd 4.02 % 1,381
NGK Insulators 3.96 % 4,535
General Cable Corp 3.95 % 1,534
Veeco Instruments. Inc. 3.92 % 1,108
LS Corporation 3.91 % 2,484
Johnson Controls 3.88 % 22,744
Short Positions Weight
NICHICON -4.65 %
Novozymes ASB -4.51 %
Sanken Electric -4.48 %
Roper Industries --4.32 %
Power Integrations Inc -4.06 %
Cree Inc -4.00 %
Johnson Matthey PLC -3.93 %
MEIDENSHA CORP -3.90 %
Polypore International Inc -3.76 %
AeroVironment Inc -3.34 %
Long positions as of February 29, 2012 Short positions as of November 30, 2011
Valuation example Exide Technologies (selected parts)
Source: Internal as of September 2011
Target EBIT multiple 13 Increased from 12 to 13 in spring 2011
Attractive fundamental position a positive
Big parts still commodity oriented a negative
Normalized revenue Factors we are looking at:
- Transportation Americas 980 Historical levels
- Transportation Europe and Row 1,160 M&A
- Industrial Energy Americas 335 Point in industry cycle
- Industrial Energy Europe and Row 850 Point in product cycle
- Group 3,325 Point in economic cycle
Short- to medium term growth outlook
Normialized operating margin: Factors we are looking at:
- Transportation Americas 11 % Same as for revenue
- Transportation Europe and Row 10 % True one-off related items
- Industrial Energy Americas 9 % Mix shifts
- Industrial Energy Europe and Row 3 % Trends in Porters' 5 forces
Normalized EBIT:
- Transportation Americas 108
- Transportation Europe and Row 116
- Industrial Energy Americas 30
- Industrial Energy Europe and Row 26
- Unallocated -75 Historical levels adj for true one-offs
Normalized group EBIT 204
Value of operations 2,658
Net cash -628 Last available with possible adjustments
Minority items -15 Estimated share of normalized EBIT
Pension liabilities -107 Assumed fair value
Fair value of equity 1,908
# shares 77.5
Target 24.62
Upside ~400%
26
Exide Non-numerical analsysis example
• Start stop exposure: Purest play on start stop battery trend. Start stop batteries for automobiles saves a lot of energy and pollution at a low cost. Rule of thumb for battery suppliers is doubling in ASP and triple EBIT per unit.
• Secular growth: We have just seen the beginning of the impact of start stop in the numbers, as only European OEM market has been addressed so far. US will follow, and the important replacement market has not contributed at all yet. Great growth visibility.
• Transition: Exide stock is in transition from an indebted commodity player to gradually higher technology content and new growth markets. It is currently trading like an indebted commodity player, we believe perception will move towards the latter.
• Flexibility improving: Improving cash flow and debt profile will give Exide better financial flexibility. Should allow for pending investments that should yield strong returns
• Lead recycling assets: has good value as lead price is high and does not seem to weaken
• Market noise: (a common thing we are looking for). Market is overemphasising weakness in Transport Americas segment which is only ~1/4 of sales. From this was reported the stock fell 26% the two following days. Also, we believe the trends might revert
• Cyclicality overstated: The auto battery replacement cycles should only improve if new auto sales (OEM market) disappoint. Aftermarket is >3x bigger than OEM market.
• Earnings momentum next couple of quarters
27
Factor risk analysis, based on GRAM from Citi
• ~73% of risk attributed to alpha
• Risk target;
10-20% annual standard deviation
Source: Internal as of February 29, 2012 28
Exposures to 1 Stdev Factor Event
Higher commodity prices (ex-oil) 17.46% 1.70 %
Rising global yield 20.02% 0.39 %
Positive global market shock 11.04% 0.14 %
Global small caps beat large caps 4.50% 0.14 %
Global grow th beats value 3.65% -0.65 %
Global Credit Default Risk 52.68% -1.76 %
Stronger USD vs EUR 11.37% -2.87 %
Stronger USD vs JPY 10.78% -3.54 %
Rising emerging market yield 13.34% -5.04 %
Largest Factor Contributions to TE
Rising emerging market yield 12.46 %
Stronger USD vs JPY 10.41 %
Taiw an 8.40 %
Higher oil prices 4.10 %
Rising global yield 2.27 %
Global Credit Default Risk 1.11 %
Information Technology 0.69 %
Higher commodity prices (ex-oil) 0.60 %
Hong Kong 0.43 %
Japan 0.39 %
Estimated Risk
Estimated TE 16.73 %
Expl by Factors 27.6 %
Expl by Stock Specifics 72.4 %
Portfolio Statistics
Portfolio Size 58.2 MEUR YTD Excess Return -5.80 %
Cash 107.52 % MTD Excess Return -7.19 %
WTD Excess Return -0.20 %Stocks In Portfolio 146
Stocks In Benchmark Estimated TE 16.73 %
Gross Bet 318.85 % TE Daily Obs.
% Outside Benchmark TE Weekly Obs.
DNB ECO Absolute Return - Fund profile
Fund managers: Jon Sigurdsen/Christian Rom
Investment Universe: Global Renewable Energy
Strategy: Market neutral long/short equity fund
Fund type: UCITS compliant Luxembourg FCP
Benchmark: EUR – GETB1 BM, NOK – ST1X , SEK – OMRX TBILL
Target alpha: 7-12 % gross
Risk target: 10-20 % annual standard deviation
Number of holdings: 100-200
Turnover: 200–300 %
Exposure: 200–400 % gross and +/- 20 % net
Inception date: 17 December 2010 (Strategy 20th October 2010)
29
Terms - LU0547714286
Liquidity and NAV: Daily
Management fee: 1.5 %
Performance fee: 20 %
Front end fee: Maximum 5 %
Back end fee: No
High watermark: Yes - no resets
Hurdle rate: Yes
Domicile: Luxembourg
Classes: EUR, SEK and NOK
Minimum investment: EUR 1 000 / SEK 10 000 / NOK 10 000
30
Contact
For more information regarding our Renewable Energy Funds:
www.dnb.no/lu
Portfolio Managers
Jon Sigurdsen – Head of Renewable Energy
Øvre Slottsgate 3, 0157 Oslo, Norway
Christian Rom – Portfolio Manager
Øvre Slottsgate 3, 0157 Oslo, Norway
Sales
Mike Judith, Vice President
13, rue Goethe, 1637 Luxembourg, Luxembourg
T +352 45 49 45 503
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