Does Frustration lead to Violence?

Does Frustration lead to Violence?

By Taleisha Jones, Daniel Peterson, Itzcally Ponce and Tran Vuong

OverviewOverview

• Introduction - Taleisha

• Research Procedures- Tran

• Results & Long Term Applications - Itzcally

• Critiques - Everyone

• Analysis of:

• Duhem - Tran

• Kuhn & Popper - Daniel

• Conclusion - Taleisha

IntroductionIntroduction

• Does Frustration Lead to Violence? Evidence from the Swedish Hooligan Scene by Mikael Priks

• Sweden, 2010

• Italian Soccer Game, 2007• 100 people injured• One officer killed

Background Background

• Hooliganism

• Assistant Professor at Stockholm University

• Research interests: Political Economics, Public Finance and Law and Economics.

Research ProceduresResearch Procedures

• An economic research with 3 analyses examining:

• Relationship of spectators frustration and position of their supporting team

• Psychology patterns of spectators: violence level when the game is played on home field or away

• Norm-breaking behavior from participants in organized hooligan violence

Model and Data SourceModel and Data Source

• Model: Multi-variable Linear Regression

• Data Source:

• Analysis 1 & 2: from referees at the Swedish league Allsvenskan stadium

• Analysis 3: Swedish hooligan organization Firman Boys

ResultsResults

• Table Two: Frustration and Unruly Behavior

• Team performs worse in terms of position in the league, supporters are more likely to be disorderly.

• One drop in league position leads to an increase on the number of incidents in a game by 6 percent.

• Absolute position in the league does not affect unruly behavior

• Based on the results, supporters do not seem aggressive when their favorite team performs consistently bad.

ResultsResults

• Table Three: Frustration and Unruly Behavior by Home and Away Supporters

• Home supporters act more unruly when their team under performs and falls in league standings. The chance of incidents increases by 9%.

• Supporters do not respond to a negative change in their team's league standing, when at away games.

ResultsResults

• Table Four: Frustration and the Number of Supporters Per Game

• No significant correlation to suggest that fans base their decision to go or not go to a game based on the previous match's result.

• Improved absolute position in the league does increase the number of organized supporters.

• A one-position improvement leads to 31 more organized supporters or a 5 percent increase in supporters.

ResultsResults

• Table Five: Frustration and Norm Breaking• Frustration due to a one-position drop in standings

does not affect the number of incidents when hooligans use weapons in fights

• Frustration due to a one-position drop in standings

affects the number of bottle throwing incidents by

15 %.• Frustration due to a one-position drop in standings

affects norm-braking of kicking someone when they are on the ground by 25 %.

Interpretation of ResultsInterpretation of Results

• Team's worsen performance, relative to team's position in league standings, can trigger aggressive behavior.

• Therefore, Hooligan violence is not spontaneous.

Long Term ApplicationsLong Term Applications

• This information can help police officers asses how frustrated fans might be before a match.

• This will allow them to coordinate a strategy to prevent and stop hooligan violence

Long Term ApplicationsLong Term Applications

• Information can also help law enforcement with group violence (e.g. street gangs) in general.

• This information can help policy makers formulate a strategy to prevent and stop group violence.

CritiquesCritiques

• Flaws in research gathering methods:

• Research is all second hand sources from referee's in Swedish soccer league

• Referee's reports maybe unreliable since there first priority is to officiate the soccer match, thrill seeking and immediate frustrations).

CritiquesCritiques

• How can they be so certain what fans, home or away, are acting unruly?

• If the reports are of single incidents, we can factor in many more reasons for disorderly conduct (Alcohol, thrill seeking and immediate frustrations).

CritiquesCritiques

• Alcohol Consumption• Altercations• Misguided frustration

• Conformity• Frustration or following the crowd?

Critiques Critiques

Why is it irrelevant to: Labor Supply• Unemployment: Seasonal, Structural, Cyclical and

Frictional.

• Frictional unemployment: small portion in total & not follow Supply & Demand

• High-paid jobs and the unemployed are not willing to accept lower paying jobs until they find good ones.

CritiquesCritiques

Why is it irrelevant to: Price-Setting

• Firms target a reference price point when they launch a new product which demand is too hard to estimate.

• Firms adjust price after having some understanding about market and demand.

CritiquesCritiques

Linear Regression Model: Very low R2

-How probable the observations/variables can explain for Y?

-How confident the model can be explanatory to the theory?

Answer: R2 needs to be high, ~ 80%

-Research provided: R2 <30%

Critiques based on Duhem’s work

Critiques based on Duhem’s work

• Is the researcher open-minded or blinded by desire for certain results?• Influence

• Data collection bias

• Is the researcher aware of holism of theory, apparatus, and auxiliary hypotheses?• Eliminating a subset of evidence

Popper’s ViewPopper’s View

• Falsifiability is described as the situation in which (1) no positive result can either confirm or verify a hypothesis, yet (2) any single negative result has the ability to disprove it.

• Is it violated?

• Is it followed?

Popper’s View – Violated?Popper’s View – Violated?

• Frustration-Aggression Hypothesis:

Thwarted expectations from a reference point that should lead to aggression.

• The results found to be a confirmation of the hypothesis, a positive result (1). This means the issue of falsifiability is violated.

Popper’s View – Followed?Popper’s View – Followed?

• It was not explicitly stated that falsifiability was followed.

• Falsifiability: (2) any single negative result may disprove the hypothesis.

• Priks allowed for this negative result

Kuhn’s ViewKuhn’s View

• Community Paradigm:

• Source bias: Stockholm University: Department of Economics

• Busy work or New Paradigm?

• Paradigm & Political Agenda

Kuhn’s View - BiasKuhn’s View - Bias

“The data is ideal since I know which team’s supporters are involved in the unruly behavior. I can therefore study how a team’s performance affects the unruly behavior by its supporters.” - Priks

Kuhn’s View – Busy WorkKuhn’s View – Busy Work

• It is not a new paradigm, but busy work that this research underscores.

• The research grasps for validation of the frustration-aggression hypothesis.

Kuhn’s View – ParadigmKuhn’s View – Paradigm

• The paradigm is essentially underscored by this statement from Priks:

“this notion [Frustration-Aggression Hypothesis] can help explaining youth violence, terrorism, and aggression in the workplace”

(research citations removed)

Kuhn’s View – ParadigmKuhn’s View – Paradigm

• Does this paradigm lend to the study of such specific validating research as Swedish Hooliganism?

• This underlying agenda suggests a bias for the research results, and discord between the results and the truth of the hypothesis.

ConclusionConclusion

• Does Frustration Lead to Violence?

ReferenceReference

• Priks, M. (2010). Does Frustration Lead to Violence? Evidence from the Swedish Hooligan Scene. Kyklos, 63(3), 450-460.

doi:10.1111/j.1467-6435.2010.00482.x.

QuestionsQuestions