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MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD SHORT 3 1.4205 1.3840/1.3770/1.3410 (Entered 05/08/2011) 1.4205GBP/USD Buy limit 3 1.6190 1.6265/1.6476/1.6747 1.6115USD/JPY Awaiting Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.USD/CHF SHORT 1 0.7997 0.7600 (Entered on 27/07/2011) 0.7750USD/CAD Await Trade Buy Setup.AUD/USD Awaiting Sell Trade Setup.GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP Missed sell at 0.8800. Await fresh signal.EUR/CHF Await fresh signal.GOLD Await Trade Setup.SILVER Await Trade Setup.
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT5 August, 2011
Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtotheentry
pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis
published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports.
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
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EURUSD price activity remains bearish ahead of US Non-Farm.
Lowered stop to breakeven. EUR/USDs price activity remains bearishahead of todays US Non-Farm Payroll release. Indeed, yesterdays price
confirmed a third consecutive bearish reversal pattern, weighed down by
additional failed breakouts from the major Bermuda triangle pattern.
Volatility is expected to spike ahead of todays US employment release.The chart below helps remind us that last times results were much worse-
than-expected at 18k, which extended a slide beneath the historical
resistance zone between 210-340k. Next support holds at -200k.
Our long standing bearish view remains in play while the downtrend (fromMay) holds. A resumption of lower will target 1.3938 (200-DMA), where a
large amount of die-hard trend followers will be watching closely for
repeat support or a big squeeze lower. Only a close above 1.4580 will lead
to a reassessment of this view.
Inversely, the US dollar index is resuming its oversold bounce from keysupport at 73.50-73.00. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of
defence), helping launch a rebound back into 80.00 over the multi-week/month horizon.
SPECIALREPORT:EUR/USDAFallFromGrace?DeclineTargets1.3770/1.3410.Please select link: REPORT VIDEO
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3 at 1.4205, Obj: 1.3840/1.3770/1.3410, Stop: 1.4205
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
US Dollar Index Non-Farm Payroll chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EURUSD's BERMUDA TRIANGLE
REVERSALPATTERN
AT 200 DMA(1.3938)
FAILEDBREAKOUTS
REVERSALPATTERN
PIVOT ZONE
KEY RESISTANCE ZONE(210-340k)
US NON-FARMPAYROLL(2003-2011)
18k
-200k
KEY13 SUPPORT
(73.50)
US DOLLAR INDEX
(Daily 2 years)
9
200-DMA(76.91)
TDBUY
EXHAUSTIONSIGNALS
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf -
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Further leg higher anticipated.
GBP/USD exhibits a number of characteristics on longer-term charts thatare suggestive of further gains. These include a bounce from the 50 week
moving average, currently at 1.6022, and a push above the resistance of a
daily bear channel, warning of a return to 1.6547 and then 1.6747.
Furthermore, long-term trend-line resistance off 2.1162 has been tested assupport, suggesting that the recovery from 1.4231, in the weekly
timeframe, remains intact. (not shown).
We view the price action in the shorter-term as being representative of acorrective phase, with scope for a return to the 1.6200 region. We still
favour the formation of a lower high in this region, for a fresh swing to the
upside.
Failure to remain above 1.6200 will warn of a fresh relapse towards 1.5781,in the longer-term timeframe.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 1.6190, Objs: 16265/1.6476/1.6747, Stop: 1.6115.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Unwinding after recent BOJ intervention.
USD/JPY is unwinding sharply after yesterdays surge higher (above thatall-important level at 80.00), following the BOJs Intervention.
We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, watching for stable pricemoves to initiate a buy trade setup and sustained resumption of the
preferred new structural bull-cycle.
To sustain the impulsive move higher, we still need a close above strategiclevels at 80.00, then 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post
Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).
The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await Buy Trade Setup above 80.00
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
82.00
83.30
WAVE 5
MAJOR TRIANGLE(WAVE IV) SIGNALSFINAL MOVE DOWN
NEW POST WWIIRECORD LOW !!!
(76.25)
84.50
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)
EARTHQUAKESHOCK!
CONFLUENCEZONE
POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR)
POSTG7
MOVEHIGH
BOJ
INTERVENTION(PART II)
MONTHLY TDBUY SIGNAL
USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)
ENDINGDIAGONAL
PATTERN
ZONE(88.00)
EXHAUSTION
BREAKOUTTARGET
13
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Falling wedge formation now potentially complete.
Stop lowered to 0.7750. USD/CHF continues to consolidate in the hourly timeframe after breaking
out of a multi-month falling wedge last Friday.
In the short-term hourly timeframe we still see scope for a return to 0.7600,but would expect strong support to manifest there.
Considering what is taking place in other risk markets we see the potentialfor USD demand to pick up over coming sessions, thus placing a near-term
floor on USD/CHF. In the hourly timeframe we see a slowing of
momentum.
With this in mind we view the current region as potentially offeringmedium-term scope for USD/CHF long positioning. However, we remain
wary of issues in the Eurozone periphery which have been responsible for
the extreme pricing we see now. We await the appropriate short-term set
up.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 1 at 0.7997, Obj: 0.7600, Stop: 0.7750.
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHFUSD/CHF
USD/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Accelerated recovery hits 200-dMA (0.9824).
USD/CADs accelerated recovery has just hit its long-term 200-dMA at0.9822. A sustained close above this area will signal an important change
in the primary trend, into positive territory around parity 1.0000.
However, price activity remains very extreme at the moment and should bedue some unwinding into near-term support at 0.9751 and 0.9670. We
look to buy on these potential dips for the major move higher.
Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is still holding strong having recently breached its200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.3379 (61.8% Fib).
In contrast, CHF/CAD is still very overbought, having recently accelerated
to a new 2011 high. The overall move has strengthened the uptrend and
continues to signal further unwinding of risk appetite in the global markets.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Buy Trade Setup.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
CHF/CAD (Daily)
61.8%(1.3379)
MAJOR RESISTANCE
EUR/CAD(Daily)
50%(1.3466)
DOJI PATTERNSIGNALS
EXHAUSTION
USD/CAD(Weekly )
BULLISH
REVERSALPATTERNEXTENDS
HIGHER
EXPANDING
PATTERN
USD/CAD (Daily)
MAJOR LOW(0.9446)
REVERSAL
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Key support at 1.0440.
AUD/USDs sharp slide lower is now holding at key support near 1.0443(TDST line). We are watching price reactions into this area closely.
Probabilities favour an temporary oversold bounce around this area, whichwould look to sell into for a break lower into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then 1.0205
and 0.9990.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar.The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds
beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2500/1.2463.
The Aussie dollar has given back gains against the Japanese yen and onceagain resumed its pattern breakout. Next support can be found at 80.42.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Sell Trade setup.
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-DMACAPSBEARMKT
AUD/NZD
(Daily)
KEY SUPPORT1.2500 / 1.2463
38.2%(84.09)
61.8%(80.42)
EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNAL
50%(82.25)
AUD/JPY
(Daily)
13 TD
200-DMA(83.75)
BREAKOUT
ADDS TORISK
AVERSION
AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)
200-DMA(1.0303)
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Volatile rangebound trade persists.
GBP/JPY broke over daily falling channel resistance yesterday, but hasfaced initial resistance close to the 200 day moving average, returning to
trade within the confines of the old bear channel.
Intervention by the Bank of Japan, which originated close to the 126.97level, will need to remain above there in order to have been deemed
effective.
For now we remain wary of extremely volatile range bound trade. Longer-term we remain biased to a return to the region near 190.00.
However, any attempt at long positioning needs to be driven by short-
term structure that is suggestive of further gains in the hourly timeframe at
the very least.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting signal.
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Meets initial demand at the base of a possible daily channel.
EUR/GBP appears to have completed the rising phase seen since 0.8285. Yesterday saw a re-test of the 200 day moving average, this being our
near-term target. We have thus removed our sell recommendation,
preferring to wait for a better set up.
Initial support has also been noted at the base of a possible rising dailychannel, making todays low (0.8655) key for further potential gains.
We also note that a push under 0.8611 is required to break down thecurrent longer-term bullish structure.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Missed sell at 0.8800. Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBPEUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Maintains break of falling channel support.
EUR/CHF continues to print fresh all-time lows, reaching 1.0711 thus far. In fact, short-term structure suggests a fresh low remains probable, ahead
of any potential recovery.
Given the strong connection between EUR/CHF and stresses in theEurozone periphery, we need to monitor the periphery bond yields, with
Spanish and Italian yields both trading above 6% currently. If a sustained
break higher in these yields can be achieved this has the potential to causefunding problems for the banks in both of these economies. This would
place further downside pressure on EURCHF.
We thus keep in mind that in the absence of further stresses from theEurozone periphery, a strong recovery higher would become likely, due to
the probable extreme short positioning in this market
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Gold now targets psychological level at 1700.00.
Gold prices now targets psychological level at 1700.00. However, theyellow metal still needs to break above its recent high at 1681.72 in order
to get there. We are watching for a potential trade setup here.
In terms of the big picture, we continue to watch price activity which hastentatively pushed above the 12-year trend-channel, that had also recently
developed a unique long-term DeMark exhaustion signal.
Keeping this in mind, there is still potential for a sharp unwinding lower,which would be healthy following such a powerful surge higher.
Near-term support can be found at 1640.40 (recent low) and 1600(previous psychological level). A sustained close beneath here would warn
of a sharp reversal lower.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await Trade Setup.
GOLD
Gold daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
GOLD Weekly LOG Chart (1999-2011)
TREND
CHANNEL
12 YEARS
ACCELERATION INLONG POSITIONS
GOLD COTNet LargeSpeculationPositions
GOLD Daily (April 2010-2011)
10 consecutiveHigher Closes
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Sharp bearish reversal warns of further downside.
Silver sharp bearish reversal pattern warns of further downside, while alsosignaling an important divergence from Gold. Only a push back above
42.2300 (recent high) will expose our next target zone at 43.1136-43.8477.
Near-term support can be found at 38.2100 (20 th July low). A break herewould trigger downside risk into 34.0519 (200-dMA).
Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and wouldstill mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.
We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, whichis currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await Trade Setup.
SILVER
Spot Silver daily, weekly, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
BULLMARKET
FROM1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
13
OVER BASE
38.2%(32.3135)
50%(26.9150)
30YEAR
61.8%(21.5165)
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High!TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS
UNWINDING 37%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver Ratio
37%13 YEAR LEVEL
TARGET 2(43.1136/43.8477)
Silver (Daily) 13
200 dMA(32.9235)
50%(41.0513)
LEGAL
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Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have
or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or
distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or
recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect
any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by
MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and
are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no
representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and
opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In
particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other
advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made
solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a
qualified expert before making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be
reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,
whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and
complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or
recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect
any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by
DIS
CLA
IMER
LEGALTERMS
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www.migbank.comHoward FriendChief Market [email protected] [email protected]
Technical StrategistBjioy Kar
Tel.+41 32 722 81 00CH-2008 Neuchtel14, rte des Gouttes dOr
www.migbank.com
[email protected] StrategistRon William
CONTACT
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]