2011 08 25 migbank daily technical analysis report

8/4/2019 2011 08 25 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

M

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD Await Directional Trade Setup into 1.4060 or 1.4580.GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY LONG 3 77.20 80.20/81.50/83.30 (Entered 25/08/2011) 75.90USD/CHF Await signal. Possibly looking to buy lower.USD/CAD Await Buy Trade Setup above 0.9810.AUD/USD Sell stop 3 1.0310 0.9930/0.9705/0.9540 1.0540GBP/JPY Possibly looking to sell.EUR/JPY Sell limit 3 113.70 112.70/110.00/108.00 114.70EUR/GBP Await fresh signal.EUR/CHF Await fresh signal.GOLD Await Sell Trade Setup.SILVER SHORT 3 40.3310 37.0005/34.9750/33.4750 (Entered 25/08/2011) 42.8180

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT25 August, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit w ill be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry

point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in mor e profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
http://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/http://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/


2/15

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EURUSD remains bearish under resistance at 1.4420/1.4580.

EUR/USD remains bearish, despite the recent sharp reactionary bouncewhich eventually stalled around resistance at 1.4420 (pivot zone). This

confirms yet another bearish signal, weighed down by additional failed

breakouts (see red arrows) from this major Bermuda triangle pattern,

which has proved costly to most investors and traders.

We prefer to open a trade setup once this pattern triggers a meaningfuldirectional breakout into either 1.4160 or 1.4580 (on a closing basis).

According to our cycle analysis, there is a heightened probability for

increased volatility next week.

Our bearish view remains in play while the downtrend (from May 04th)holds. A resumption lower will target 1.3971 (200-DMA), where a large

amount of die-hard trend followers will be watching closely for repeat

support or a big squeeze lower toward our initial objectives at 1.3770 and

1.3410. Only a close above 1.4580 will lead to a reassessment of this view.

Inversely, the US dollar index is maintaining consolidation above keysupport at 73.50-73.00. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of

defence), helping launch a rebound back into 80.00 over the multi-

week/month horizon. COT liquidity readings are currently neutral and must

return back to our upside trigger level of 15000 net long contracts.

SPECIAL REPORT :EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.Please select link: REPORT VIDEO

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Awaiting Directional Trade Setup into 1.4160 or 1.4580.

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

US Dollar Index daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

REVERSALPATTERN

AT 200 DMA(1.3971)

PIVOT ZONE

(1.4420-50)

TREND2 YEARS(1.3900)

REVERSALPATTERNS

FAILEDBREAKOUTS

EURUSD's BERMUDA TRIANGLE

+

-

STILLUNWINDING!

US$ INDEX(Weekly)(4 YEARS)

TD EXHAUSTIONBUY SIGNAL

+27% +19%

TRIGGER(15000)

COT LIQUIDITY

KEYSUPPORT

(73.50-73.00)

13

US DOLLAR INDEX(Daily 2 years)

9

200-DMA(76.49)

TDEXHAUSTIONBUY SIGNALS
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf


3/15

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Break under 1.6421 opens up return to 1.6256.

GBP/USD has broken lower after consolidating in the prior sessions. Wenow see scope for a return to the 1.6256 higher low and then potentially

lower.

Short-term structure also suggests scope for a lower high ahead of 1.6436. To eliminate the potential for a further swing higher in the medium-term,

we require a push back under 1.6111. With this in mind we see scope for a

higher low versus 1.6111.

Failure to remain above 1.6104 (200-day MA) will warn of a fresh relapsetowards 1.5781, in the longer-term.


Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


4/15

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Potential BUY signal after NEW Record Low.

USD/JPY has developed a potential DeMark exhaustion buy signal, afterlast week's new post WWII record low which was carved out at 75.95. The

reversal signal is also taking place following the second post intervention

retracement (PIR II) in 2011, which is holding around multi-day support

near 76.30-25.

We remain bullish in the medium/long-term, watching for a sustained moveabove our initial upside trigger level at 77.00-77.20. This would initiate our

buy trade setup, offering a resumption of the preferred new structural bull-

cycle into the all-important psychological level at 80.00, near 80.24 (post

BOJ intervention II high).

Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-termmonthly DeMark exhaustion signal, with TD Risk lines still holding at

79.83 and 76.79. Remember, only a sustained weekly close below here and

76.25 will lead to a reassessment of our view.


Long 3 at 77.20, Obj: 80.20/81.50/83.30, Stop:75.90


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

WAVE 5

83.30

USD/JPY(Daily 1 YEAR)

EARTHQUAKE

SHOCK!

POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT(PIR I)

POSTG7

MOVEHIGH

82.00

PIR II

80.24

POSTBOJ

MOVEHIGH

TDEXHAUSTIONBUYSIGNAL AFTER

NEW POST WWII LOW(75.95)

MONTHLY TDEXHAUSTIONBUYSIGNAL

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERNBREAKOUT

TARGET(88-85)

13


5/15

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Breakout from hourly consolidation sought.

USD/CHF when viewed from a weekly/daily perspective has theappearance of a possible false break lower. With this in mind, we continue

to favour the formation of a higher low versus 0.7071 for a further recovery

leg higher.

However, we are inclined to wait for a pullback before committing to longpositioning, expecting a breakout from the recent tight hourly

consolidation between 0.7770 and 0.8017, with a bias to the downside.

The price action that we have noted above, in both the weekly and dailytimeframes, is typically associated with reversals. Thus, we see scope for

the current region to act as a possible accumulation zone for long

positioning.

However, the potential for adverse events in the Eurozone remains everpresent, implying that the safe haven status of the Franc may be called

upon yet again. We thus continue to monitor periphery government bond

yields and view trade positioning as being key to any long strategy that

may be employed.


Await signal. Possibly looking to buy lower.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHFUSD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


6/15

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Unwinding beneath 1.0000.

USD/CADs accelerated recovery is finally unwinding, having reached thatall-important 1.0000 level.

However, expect to see further unwinding into near-term support at0.9751 and 0.9670, before a resumption higher. We are watching for a

renewed buy trade setup, favouring a major upsurge into 1.0210 plus.

Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is still also unwinding from overbought condition,having recently accelerated above its 200-day MA. Key resistance at

1.4379 (June swing high) is likely to hold.

CHF/CAD is consolidating after its sharp decline from extremelyoverbought conditions, having triggered a bearish reversal pattern. Key

support can be found at 1.2260 (17 th Aug swing low), then 1.1880 and

1.1240.


Await Buy Trade Setup Above 0.9810.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD(Weekly )

BULLISHREVERSAL

PATTERNEXTENDS

HIGHER

TDEXHAUSTIONBUYSIGNAL

USD/CAD(Daily)

MAJOR LOW(0.9446)

200-DMA(0.9805)

REVERSALPATTERN

CHF/CAD (Daily)

200-DMA(1.0932)

MAJOR RESISTANCE

50%(1.3466)

200-DMA(1.3676)

61.8%

(1.3379)


7/15

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Sharp decline unwinds from 1.0000 (parity).

AUD/USDs sharp decline is unwinding after reaching key level at 1.0000(parity). We are watching for new sell trade setup into this bounce.

The current oversold bounce is likely to hold for a few sessions and wewould look to sell into this for a resumption back into 1.0000 and 0.9706.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar.The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds

beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320.

The Aussie dollar is unwinding against the Japanese yen, following itssharp pattern breakout which extended beneath key support at 80.42

(61.8% Fib). The move adds to current risk aversion in the global financial

community.


Sell Stop 3 at 1.0310, Objs: 0.9930/0.9705/0.9540, Stop: 1.0540

AUD/USD


AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)

TD RISK(1.0935)

TD RISK(1.1102)

TDEXHAUSTIONSELLSIGNALS

200-DMA(1.0305)

200-DMACAPSBEARMKT

AUD/NZD(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100

13

38.2%(84.09)

61.8%

(80.42)

50%(82.25)

AUD/JPY(Daily)

TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNAL

BREAKOUTADDS TO

RISKAVERSION

200-DMA(84.04)


8/15

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Further weakness anticipated.

GBP/JPY has potentially registered a lower high at 127.34, with scope nowfor a return to 123.31 ahead of a possible recovery.

We remain mildly biased to the downside noting that the weeklytimeframe continues to contain price within a falling channel. We expect

strong support to manifest between 118.85 and 122.36, should the pair

weaken to those levels.

Longer-term we remain biased to a return to the region near 190.00,although any attempt at long positioning needs to be driven by evidence

in the short-term that is suggestive of extended gains in the hourlydaily

timeframe at the very least. A break back under 118.85 is required to

change this longer-term bias.


Possibly looking to sell. Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


9/15

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Breaks over the recent 111.10 peak.

EUR/JPY has broken out of its near-term consolidation pattern to theupside.

Given the daily/weekly bear channel that has been noted in prior analysiswe remain bearish, but look to sell at a higher price location, potentially

closer to the bear channnel resistance.

Bigger picture, we view the push under 116.00 that occurred earlier in theyear as being significantly bearish, with an expectation of a return to

108.03 initially and then 105.44 further out.

We would require a push over 114.18 to negate the possibility of a returnto weakness.

With the above in mind we look to sell higher.


Sell limit 3 at 113.70, Objs: 112.70/110.00/108.00, Stop: 114.70.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPY


10/15

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A return to 0.8886 is now favoured.

EUR/GBP has found support close to the key low at 0.8643 registering ahigher low (0.8654).

We continue to view 0.8643 as a key level, under which is likely to trigger areturn to weakness, with scope then for 0.8068 over time.

While above this level a fresh recovery leg higher is feasible, potentiallyback towards 0.8886, where a lower high would be favoured to form.

We also note that a push under 0.8643 will begin to break down thepositive structure seen since 0.8285, warning of a longer-term return to

weakness.


Look to sell closer towards 0.8900.

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBPEUR/GBP



11/15

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Rangebound trade continues.

EUR/CHF has left a possible false break lower out of a falling channel. Weawait a push over 1.1892 to confirm this formation.

The recovery in EUR/CHF has been driven by a fall in Spanish and Italian 10year yields. Provided the 6% level is not breached again to the upside, we

see scope for a further recovery leg higher.

With this in mind, we note that hourly structure has been consolidatingover the last eight trading days. We continue to seek a break out of the

1.11165-1.1555 range ahead of the formulation of strategy.

We will keep our options open, also looking for signs of exhaustion,as wemay be tempted to trade with the larger trend and sell into what we

initially expect to be a corrective swing lower.

Stronger signals from short-term structure are awaited ahead of tradepositioning.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



12/15

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Gold drops over $200 in 3 days!

Gold has dropped over $200 in only 3 days, having recently triggered aconfluence of bearish signals (including DeMark exhaustion sell signal),

amidst extremely overbought conditions.

The sharp decline in gold can also be seen against key currencies(including FX majors; EUR, GBP, CHF and commodity-driven AUD & ZAR).

In terms of the big picture, we are closely monitoring Golds reaction backinto the 12-year trend-channel which is currently holding around 1610. The

recent parabolic move is also still pressured by a unique long-term

DeMark exhaustion signal, which coincides with an important cycle

peakon Gold.

We also remind our readers, the bearish risk for Gold was helped by theCMEs recent hike in margins, which often occurs during major highs (akin

to Silvers crash in April). Watch support at 1640.40. A break warns of an

extended reversal lower through the previous psychological level at

1600.00.


Awaiting Sell Trade Setup.

GOLD

Gold daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)

RISKZONE

I

II

III

GOLD Weekly LOG Chart (1999-2011)

GOLD UNWINDS ACROSS KEY FX RATES

GOLD in USD

GOLD in EUR

GOLD in CHF

GOLD in AUD

GOLD in ZAR

BREAKOUT!

GOLD Daily (April 2010-2011)

10 CONSECUTIVEHIGHER CLOSES

KEY LEVEL

(1934-35)

BEARISHREVERSALTRIGGERS

200$ DECLINEIN 3 DAYS!


13/15

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Sharp decline extends lower.

Silver's decline extends lower, beneath our target zone at 43.8477-80 andfollowing a DeMark exhaustion sell signal, which also appeared on Gold

ahead of its reversal.

Near-term support can be found at 38.2100 (20th July low). A break herewould trigger downside risk into 34.8096 (200-dMA).

Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and wouldstill mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.

We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, whichis currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.


SHORT 3: 40.3310, Obj:37.0005/34.9750/33.4750, Stop: 42.8180

SILVER

Spot Silver daily, weekly, Bloomberg Finance LP


OVER 30YEAR BASEBULL

MARKETFROM

1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

38.2%(32.3135)

50%(26.9150)

61.8%(21.5165)

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS

UNWINDING 37%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver Ratio

37%13 YEAR LEVEL

Silver(Daily)

13

200 DMA(34.1853)

TARGET II

TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNAL


14/15

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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,

including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have

or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and

are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no

representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and

opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In

particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other

advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made

solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a

qualified expert before making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to bereliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,

whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and

complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

DISC

LAIMER

LEGALTERMS


15/15

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www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

MIG [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

2011 08 25 migbank daily technical analysis report

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