2011 12 05 migbank daily technical analysis report

8/3/2019 2011 12 05 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MA

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY Await new buy trade setup above 80.00.

USD/CHF Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD Awaiting new buy trade setup.

AUD/USD Awaiting new buy trade setup.

GBP/JPY Sell limit 3 123.00 122.00/121.00/120.00 124.00

EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8700 0.8565/0.8485/0.8285 0.8835

EUR/CHF Sell stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230

GOLD Awaiting new sell trade setup.

SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300

DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT5 December, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry

point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.



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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 5 December, 2011

www.migbank.com

Sharp recovery following positive news.

EUR/USD extended sharply higher, as six central banks, reduced their USD

funding costs to ease the debt crisis. The impact was very positive for

investors around the world and has encouraged traditional “risk appetite”

markets, such as EUR/USD, AUD/USD and S&P500 to turn back higher.

Expect the recovery to be limited into 1.3610, then 1.3730 and perhaps

even 1.3850-90. Probability still favours a bearish reversal at these levels.

Meantime, support can be found at 1.3380 and 1.3146. A sustained close

beneath 1.3146 (Oct swing low) will re-establish the larger downtrend from

April and target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870 (2011 major low).

Inversely, the USD Index is maintaining its recovery higher and still targetsits recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%).

Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs

(3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain

strong and help resume the USD’s major bull-run from its historic oversold

extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

Special Report: EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

MIG Bank Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.”

US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embedded


http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54




http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/

mailto:[email protected]










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Meets resistance close to a 50% retrace, in the daily timeframe.

GBP/USD has met initial resistance close to the 50% retrace of the 1.6167 –

1.5423 fall. A further push under 1.5577 in the hourly timeframe will

continue to weaken the near-term structure, warning of an increasedlikelihood of continuation back towards 1.5423. Alternatively, a push back

over 1.5726 will warn of a fresh leg higher in the recovery from 1.5423.

A return to stresses in the Euro-Zone, driving sovereign yields higher, is

anticipated and thus Sterling has the capacity to be deemed as a safe

haven.

With the above in mind it may be advantageous to sell into a break under

the recent 1.5577 low, for a near-term return to 1.5423.

Alternatively buying at lower levels for a return to range bound trading is a

medium-term option.


Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







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Minor rebound capped at 78.24 (DeMark™ Level).

USD/JPY’s minor rebound is still being capped at 78.24 (DeMark™ Level) .

Moreover, downside risks remain, with the growing probability of a third

price retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR III) and potentiallyeven a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL).

Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying

pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first

to call the market bottom.

This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

The medium / long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained

move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal

Webinar: USD/JPY’s Long-Term Structural Change

Media Reports: CNBC Bloomberg


Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf

http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21




http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.html









http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf



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Back over 0.9252 will suggest end of corrective phase.

USD/CHF exhibits an hourly structure in the fall from 0.9331 – 0.9066 that

suggests the correction from the former may now be complete. However, a

push back over 0.9252 is required to confirm this, negating a re-test of the0.9000 level.

We are wary of selling at current levels as downside pressure from rising

Euro-Zone yields has eased somewhat following the reduction in the interest

rate offered on USD based swap lines. Spanish and Italian government

bonds remain elevated, currently trading at 5.337% and 6.264% versus

6.478% and 7.355%, before the six party central bank agreement.

Looking at the German sovereign yield curve in particular we note that

yields are lower across all maturities when compared with a week ago (withthe exception of 6 months). Assuming German yields are not pressured to

the upside, this should also act to ease downside pressure in USD/CHF.

Movement in USD/CHF is likely to be affected by EUR/CHF should the latter

rate get closer to the 1.2130 region, which marks the lower end of the recent

trading range.


Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







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Sharp Setbacks hold steady.

USD/CAD’s sharp setbacks are holding steady today, following the recent

short-term DeMark™ exhaustion sell signal.

A directional confirmation above 1.0658 is still needed to unlock the

recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the

rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

Only a sustained close beneath 1.0120 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks

into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9852 and 0.9726 (31st

Aug low).

EUR/CAD remains beneath its 200-day MA, still within a large multi-month

trading range. The strong multi-month distribution pattern is likely to

breakdown further into support levels at 1.3570 and 1.3380.

CHF/CAD has also broken back beneath its 200-day MA at 1.1375, while

breaching a multi-week trading range. This follows the dramatic price slide

lower (which was triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has

retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.


Awaiting New Buy Setup.


USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







7


www.migbank.com

Extended recovery beneath 200-day MA.

AUD/USD has extended its recovery into key resistance at 1.0340 (61.8%

Fib-Oct 28th

decline) and 200-day MA which is currently holding at 1.0412.

The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside

pressure on the rate’s multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand

dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-

day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day horizon.

The Aussie dollar has triggered a mild recovery against the Japanese yen

and is now trading back above the neck-line of its two-year distribution

pattern. Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would

signal further unwinding of risk appetite.


Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

AUD/USD


AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







8


www.migbank.com

Rising wedge warns of exhaustion.

GBP/JPY appears to be losing upside momentum, forming a rising wedge in

the hourly timeframe. This suggests that the corrective phase from 119.38

may be reaching exhaustion.

The bias now returns to negative again, with scope for a degree of support

to manifest, should a fall to the 120.00 region materialise.

We now seek a break over the resistance of the rising wedge, to complete

this formation. In particular we seek a slow-down in momentum ahead of a

potential period of weakness.

A failure to hold over 119.38 will warn of a return to 116.84.

Over a longer period of time a substantial recovery higher is favoured,

initially towards 163.09.


Sell limit 3 at 123.00, Objs: 122.00/121.00/120.00, Stop: 124.00

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







9


www.migbank.com

In the final phases of a short-term correction higher.

EUR/JPY appears to be in the final phases of a correction higher from the

recent low at 102.49.

We also view the fall that has taken place since 111.60 as being correctivein nature, suggesting potential for a return to this same level.

However, the EUR component of this pair is highly affected by the

movement in EUR/USD. A break under 1.3146 in EUR/USD will end the

rising phase seen since 2010. This would likely be associated with a fall

back down to 100.76 and potentially lower.

Given the above clash between the structure and events in the Euro-Zone,

we prefer to wait on the side lines.

A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the medium-

term outlook more bullish.


Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY







10


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Failed downside break warns of a larger corrective phase higher.

EUR/GBP failed to gain momentum again, this time in the hourly timeframe,

after breaking under 0.8528. This now warns of a larger rise higher, back

towards the 0.8700 region. As has already been seen, following the recent

push under 0.8530/31, this failure to garner momentum is a hallmark of this

currency pair in recent trade. Thus the strategy remains to sell, but at

higher levels.

Given the precarious situation in the Euro-Zone, it is anticipated that if yield

curve deterioration continues then Sterling could be viewed as a safe haven.

Italian and Spanish government bond yields have eased back somewhat

after the coordinated cut in USD based swap lines amongst selected central

banks. However, a lasting solution still appears a long way off with the

recent intervention simply easing a dire situation.

Our bias remains mildly bearish with trade continuing under both the 200

day and 50 week moving averages. We keep an eye on the 1.3146 level in

EUR/USD. A push under this level will mark a clear breakdown of

confidence in the EUR, which would then likely have a knock on effect on all

EUR crosses.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8700, Objs: 0.8565/0.8485/0.8285, Stop: 0.8835.

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP








11


www.migbank.com

A re-test of the 1.2123/31 region favoured.

EUR/CHF continues to trade in a tight range failing to meet the 1.2500 level.

Following the recent six bank dollar swap rate coordination, yields in many

Euro-Zone sovereign bond markets have fallen back, easing the downside

pressure in EUR/CHF.

Our strategy is to trade opportunistically from a momentum perspective,

awaiting a return to the 1.2000 region. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region

take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end

of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to

this level.

Near-term, a break back under 1.2226 will warn of a failure to re-test the

1.2500 region, suggesting an earlier return to 1.2123/31. In any case, a re-

test of the base of the recent trading range is anticipated over coming

sessions.

The failure of this pair to break over the 50 week moving average over

recent weeks is also an initial warning that the prior downtrend may not be

over. The large cluster of stops that is likely to be placed around the 1.2000

level is also anticipated to aid any short positioning, questioning the ability of

the SNB to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP








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Remains negative beneath $1800.

Short-term price activity remains negative beneath resistance at $1800,

despite the recent push higher. Only a close above here would develop a

more sustained recovery into $1845.

Meanwhile, there is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we

confirm a weekly close beneath $1600/04 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing

low), which has not been breached in 3 years!

A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this

benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000.

Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached

a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would

ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

Special Report “Gold’s mountainous peak at risk…beneath $1600” VIDEO

Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)


Awaiting new sell trade setup.

GOLD

Gold weekly and daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP


http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FA




http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202

http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.html












http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202






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Key support at $30.0000.

Lowered stop to 34.1300, breakeven, thereby ensuring a risk-free trade.

Silver is holding around key support at 30.0000. Only a sustained close

below here would trigger a test of the previous swing low at 26.0700.

Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the

major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces

volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to

recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

multi-week / month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver’s long-

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

resumption higher.

Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio which has now accelerated

higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

This also helps explain recent divergences between gold and silver.


SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300

SILVER

Spot Silver daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP








14


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including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or

have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

DISCLAIMER

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to

buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act

of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal

use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK

makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions

expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes

financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be

made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before

making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no

guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the

content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

LEGALTERMS



15


www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

MIG [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 NeuchâtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]



http://www.migbank.com/





http://www.migbank.com/



2011 12 05 migbank daily technical analysis report

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