2011-05-10 migbank daily technical analysis report

8/6/2019 2011-05-10 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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MIG BANK 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD SHORT 2 1.4490 1.4150/1.4000 (Entered on 06/05/2011) 1.4490GBP/USD Sell limit 3 1.6620 1.6490/1.6308/1.6166 1.6750USD/JPY Buy limit 3 80.50 81.50/82.83/85.54 79.50USD/CHF Buy limit 3 0.8655 0.8760/0.8879/0.9012 0.8550USD/CAD Buy stop 3 0.9714 0.9825/1.0000/1.0210 0.9630AUD/USD Biased towards shorts under 1.0830.GBP/JPY Buy limit 3 130.50 131.50/134.27/136.12 129.50EUR/JPY Possibly looking to buy.EUR/GBP Buy limit 3 0.8740 0.8840/0.9043/0.9150 0.8640EUR/CHF SHORT 1 1.2730 1.2350 (Entered on 06/05/2011) 1.2660GOLD Sell Stop 3 1474 1442/1411/1380 1490SILVER Await fresh signal.

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT10 May, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthe stopwillbemovedtotheentry

pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis

published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports.


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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT10 Ma , 2011

www.migbank.com

Initial demand seen close to trend-line support.

EUR/USDs sharp correction, which was helped by a confluence of DeMarkexhaustion signals, is weighing on the major trend.

We now require a break under 1.4158 to confirm a false break over dailychannel resistance last week at 1.4941.

Todays failure to break under yesterdays 1.4256 low suggests that we arepotentially in the midst of a corrective phase. We have also seen initial

demand close to trend-line support from 1.3429.

Scope is now seen for a return to 1.4420 initially and then possibly the1.4500 region. Above 1.4680 is required to dampen the current short-

term bearish stance.

L-T TREND STRATEGY

Short 2 at 1.4490, Obj: 1.4150/1.4000, Stop: 1.4490.

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]


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Lower high sought for a continuation of the corrective phase.

GBP/USD has broken back below 1.6431 weakening the near-termstructure.

Last week also saw the formation of a weekly bearish engulfing candlestickreversal pattern, warning of further losses ahead.

This now reduces the potency of the prior break over long-term trend-lineresistance off 2.1162.

Below 1.5937 is required to weaken the medium-term bullish structure. We view the fall from 1.6747 to 1.6270 as being the initial leg in a

corrective phase. Scope is now seen for a swing higher and the formation

of a lower high in the region between 1.6574 and 1.6625.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Sell limit 3 at 1.6620, Objs: 1.6490/1.6308/1.6166, Stop: 1.6750.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Initial support seen close to 61.8% retrace.

USD/JPYs sharp bearish slide has found initial support near 80.00.

We note that so far demand has been witnessed close to the 61.8% retraceof the 76.25-85.54 rise, at 79.80. We see scope for a higher low to form in

this region, but await the development of short-term structure to help

confirm a recovery.

Only a sustained close below 80.00 would offer risk to 78.80, which wouldpossibly lead to a selling climax before a resumption higher.

Bulls need to push back above strategic levels at 82.00 (post G7intervention high) and 83.30 (post Earthquake shock high), then 84.50

(16th Dec peak), to resume the new long-term bull cycle.

A close above here opens up 85.52/85.93 (September 2010 peak), to addfurther confirmation that a longer-term upside reversal is in place.


Buy limit 3 at 80.50, Objs: 81.50/82.83/85.54, Stop: 79.50.


USD/JPY

USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Scope for further recovery potential.

USD/CHF has possibly completed the phase of weakness initiated from0.9340, where an extension lower has subsequently met 0.8554.

This broke below the support of a daily channel formation meeting ourtarget zone near 0.8650.

Failure to find support in the 0.8650 region then led to the evolution of anhourly falling wedge. This bullish structure has since triggered a recovery

higher, confirming a false break lower.

We now seek a short-term squeeze lower, for the creation of a higher lowand a further recovery leg.

A return back towards 0.8835 would be sought initially.



USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHFUSD/CHF

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Sharp reversal from multi-year lows.

USD/CAD has reversed sharply from its multi-year lows, after breakingbelow the support of a multi-month falling channel. Back over 0.9974 is

required to confirm a false break lower, weakening the prior bearish

structure.

Bulls need to sustain a close above 0.9722 (18th April high) to offer furtherupside extension into 0.9825 (TDST line) and 0.9968 (17th March high),

then towards 1.0000 (parity level).

Immediate support can be found at 0.9565 (old wedge pattern ceiling),then 0.9446 (29 April low) and 0.9286 (projection). Only a close below here

would unlock eventual probes towards the 2007 major low at 0.9059.

.


Buy stop 3 at 0.9714, Objs: 0.9825/1.0000/1.0210, Stop: 0.9630.

USD/CAD


USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Below 1.0830 maintains our near-term bearish stance.

AUD/USDs sharp reversal has found initial support close to the 38.2%retrace of the 0.9706-1.1012 rise, at 1.0513. This reversal was triggered by

an evening star pattern in the daily timeframe.

We now look for a sustained break below 1.0513, to open furtherweakness into 1.0443 (TDST line) and 1.0359 (50% Fib).

While below 1.0830 the bounce from 1.0537 is viewed as being correctivein nature, with a further bout of weakness anticipated.

With this in mind, we seek a lower high and will monitor short-termstructure, should weakness re-assert.


Biased towards shorts under 1.0830.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Approaches a region where longs are favoured again.

GBP/JPY continues to exhibit features on long-term charts that suggest alarger recovery remains possible.

We have seen a confirmed false break lower to 122.36 and in the process apush back over the 50 week moving average. Combined with this, long-

term trend-line resistance has been tested as support.

Recent trade has also seen an initial test of the 50% retrace of the 122.36-140.01 rise. We view this region as offering a reasonable zone for the

consideration of longs.

Combined with this we have also re-tested the 50 week moving averageafter pushing back over it earlier in the year.

A final squeeze lower is now sought within the short-term timeframe forthe creation of a higher low versus 122.36.

Longer-term a push back under 122.36 is required to dampen the recoverypotential.



GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Approaches a region where demand is expected to manifest.

EUR/JPY has experienced a strong recovery higher from 106.61, peakingat 123.33.

The corrective phase that has followed has broken under the 38.2% retraceof the 105.44-123.33 rise and also tested the region near 115.68/116.00 as

support.

We will now monitor shorter-term price action with the intention ofstructuring a long trade.

A break back under the key 113.56 level will considerably weaken theevolving recovery, warning of further weakness ahead.

Thus trade in the current region is key to maintaining the recovery seensince 105.44.


Possibly looking to buy.

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPY

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Strong support expected in the current region.

All three objectives met, closing out our short position. Look to buy. EUR/GBP has maintained its long-term bullish structure after basing at

0.8068, suggesting that the correction off 0.9812 is complete.

The pullback that we have been expecting has followed after the formationof a rising wedge in the daily timeframe and a rising channel in the hourly

timeframe.

Weakness has today tested the region where we expected demand tomanifest. We thus switch back to the longer-term bias and look to buy, as

we view the current zone as one where a higher low is favoured to form.

Back under 0.8672 is required to dampen the current longer-term bullishstructure.


Buy limit 3 at 0.8740, Objs:0.8840/0.9043/0.9150, Stop: 0.8640.

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBPEUR/GBP

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



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Under 1.2730 triggers a developing bear flag.

Second objective met. Stop moved to 1.2660. Final objective moved to1.2350.

EUR/CHF appears to have completed a three legged recovery from the all-time low made at 1.2402, with the 200 day moving average acting as

resistance, ahead of recent weakness.

Also, daily structure has seen the formation of a bear flag, with scope for areturn to 1.2433 now that a sustained break of 1.2730 has been achieved.

Also noted is that the break under 1.2730 constitutes a push under the61.8% retrace of the 1.2433-1.3243 rise, further weakening the near-term

outlook.

A move back over the lower high at 1.2749 is now required to dampenbears.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Short 1 at 1.2730, Obj: 1.2350, Stop: 1.2660.

EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



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Sharp correction holds steady near 1474 (38.2% Fib).

Golds sharp correction has found support near 1474.69 (38.2% Fib). Themajor reversal was triggered after puncturing above its multi-year bull-

channel ceiling, while also developing a DeMark exhaustion signal.

We continue to watch Golds COT net speculation positions which iscurrently unwinding lower and should soon play catch up with the s/t

bearish price activity.

Bulls need to push back above 1518 and 1543.24 (04 May), in order tooffer a recapture of the all-time high at 1577.57. Only a close above there

would confirm a resumption of the major uptrend into the next

psychological glass-ceiling at 1600.00.


Sell Stop 3 at 1474, Obj, 1442/1411/1380, Stop: 1490.

GOLD


Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Gold daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Lower high sought for fresh losses.

Silver recovering after unwinding from extreme oversold conditions, afterits sharp reversal fell just over 30% in only 5 days.

The move, (which also followed a confluence of DeMark exhaustion signalsacross daily/monthly charts), smashed through key support levels at

40.0000 (psychological) and 39.7660 (61.8% Fib).

This suggests further deterioriation of the parabolic upside move whichgained 90% this year. Keeping this in mind, we favour a further downside

extension into 31.7819 (24th Feb low) and 30.0000 (old psychological

level).

We continue to watch silver relative performance against Gold, which iscurrently unwinding from extreme oversold conditions.


Await fresh signal.

SILVER

Spot Silver hourly,Bloomberg Finance LP

Spot Silver daily,Bloomberg Finance LP


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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,

including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have

or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and

are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no

representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and

opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In

particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other

advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made

solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a

qualified expert before making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to bereliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,

whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and

complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

DISCLAIM

ER

LEGALTERMS


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www.migbank.comHoward FriendChief Market [email protected]

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

MIG [email protected]

Ron WilliamTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT
http://www.migbank.com/

2011-05-10 migbank daily technical analysis report

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