2011 07 14 migbank daily technical analysis report+

8/6/2019 2011 07 14 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+

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MIG BANK 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD SHORT 2 1.4420 1.3660/1.3410 (Entered on 06/07/2011) 1.4305

GBP/USD Await fresh signal, with a mild bearish bias.

USD/JPY Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF Sell limit 3 0.8330 0.8200/0.8080/0.7800 0.8400

USD/CAD Await buy trade setup (neutral).

AUD/USD Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY SHORT 3 128.00 127.00/124.65/122.36 129.00

EUR/JPY SHORT 1 117.70 105.44 (Entered on 04/07/2011) 115.70

EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8900 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285 0.9005

EUR/CHF SHORT 1 1.1805 1.1000 (Entered on 11/07/2011) 1.1805

GOLD Await fresh signal.

SILVER Await fresh signal.

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 14 July, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtotheentry

pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis

published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports.



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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT14 Jul , 2011

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Rises back into the confines of the old triangular consolidation.

EUR/USD resumed its bearish activity breaking out of the triangular

consolidation pattern earlier in the week. This has since been reversed in

what is currently viewed as a corrective swing higher. Back over 1.4376

will warn of a stronger recovery.

Our short position favours sustained weakness to potentially unlock an

accelerated impulsive (wave 3) into 1.3670 (61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 uptrend).

Only a sustained close above 1.4653 and most importantly 1.4711/30 will

lead us to re-evaluate.

Inversely, the US dollar index has broken above 76.36 (23rd May high),

possibly confirming a multi-month w-shaped base pattern for an extension

into 77.01 and 78.03 (50%/61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 Decline). Back under 74.00

will begin to weaken the outlook again.

SPECIALREPORT:EUR/USDAFallFromGrace?DeclineTargets1.3770/1.3410.

Please select link: REPORT VIDEO

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Short 2 at 1.4420, Objs: 1.3660/1.3410, Stop: 1.4305

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf



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Sharp reversal re-tests triangular support as resistance.

Short stopped.

GBP/USD Broke briefly under the 200 day moving average. However, a

sharp bout of strength has seen a return to the old triangular support,

potentially re-testing it as resistance.

Although we remain mildly bearish this return over the 200 day moving

average returns us to the sidelines awaiting the evolution of structure that

can assist us in our directional view.

We also note that the 50 week moving average continues to contain the

price on the downside, so await resolution there too.

A reasonable downside target lies at 1.5345.


Await fresh signal with a mild bearish bias.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP




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Another failed breakout.

USD/JPY has suffered yet another failed breakout above our second

trigger point at 81.40 (multi-week triangle pattern). We remain bullish in

the medium to long-term, but are switching to a more cautious footing,

watching for a sustained resumption of the potentially new structural bull-

cycle. We note that this cycle would be negated on a push under 76.25.

To signal an impulsive move higher, we still need a sustained close above

strategic levels at 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post

Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).

The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto

88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).


Await fresh signal.


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP




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A further test of channel support is now favoured.

USD/CHF continues to trade within the confines of a daily/weekly wedge,

after failing to gain momentum last week following the minor beak over

wedge resistance.

Shorter-term structure suggests scope for a re-test of the channel support

which has seen one test already. In fact, a break under this support is

eventually sought ahead of a potential recovery.

We look for a break back over 0.8551 before considering longs.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8330, Objs: 0.8200/0.8080/0.7800, Stop: 0.8400

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHFUSD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP




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Resumes downtrend.

USD/CAD unwound from oversold conditions, amidst key support near

0.9550. Corrective activity was originally triggered after the rate’s

expanding pattern initially failed at key resistance into 0.9906-0.9915

(38.2% Fib-Sept 2010 decline & 200 DMA).

Meantime, our medium/long-term perspective has been neutralised by a

failed breakout from the multi-month wedge pattern.

Indeed the bulls must recapture 0.9913/15 (27th June swing high/38.2%

Fib), to achieve a sustainable recovery into 0.9968 (17th March high) and

1.0000 (parity level). In the meantime, a resumption of the larger

downtrend appears possible.


Awaiting trade setup (Neutral).

USD/CAD


USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP




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Reactive bounce still weighed by exhaustion signal.

Short stopped.

AUD/USD’s reactive bounce from key support at 1.0443 (TDST line), is still

weighed down by a DeMark™ exhaustion signal last seen at the May peak.

Keep alert to the fact that our DeMark™ indicator has also flagged

exhaustion sell signals across both weekly and daily timeframes. Meantime,

our downside trigger level remains at 1.0443 (TDST line), to unlock

extended downside scope into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then 1.0205 and 0.9990.

Back over 1.1012 will negate our bearish bias.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar,

after its recovery failed into key resistance at 1.3169 (61.8% Fib). The pair

is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath this

level.

The Aussie dollar has also weakend against the Japanese yen, after

triggering a daily reversal pattern. The bearish signal is now pushing back

lower into the multi-week triangle pattern. We continue to favour a

potential downside breakout, which would signal further risk aversion in

the financial community.


Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD


AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP




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A return towards channnel support remains favoured.

GBP/JPY has tested below the 61.8% retrace of the 122.36-140.03 rise

seen earlier in the year and broken clearly under it.

This now alters the near-term structure in favour of a relapse towards

122.36, thus also greatly weakening the longer-term recovery structure

that we had previously expected.

Focus remains on the daily bear channel that has been developing for the

last three months.

A lower high is now in place at 130.85 for a continuation of near-term

weakness.

Although the area around the daily channel support has been tested, we

continue to favour a return to this region and potentially a clear break

under this support ahead of any potential recovery.


Short 3 at 128.00, Objs: 127.00/124.65/122.36, Stop: 129.00

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP





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Further weakness anticipated while below 113.50.

EUR/JPY has likely completed an extended recovery from the 2010 low at

105.44 after reaching 123.33 and then failing to hold over 116.00.

Recent trade has seen a break under the platform near 113.42/50, which

also constitutes a push under the 200 day moving average.

The structure present since 117.90 now warns of the potential for a shallow

retrace and a further extension lower back towards 105.44. This is

however dependent on the perception of risk as partially dictated by

periphery spreads versus bunds.

We also note that the recent sharp fall has also pushed under the 50 week

moving average. This turns the longer-term outlook negative again.

Although further losses are anticipated we are maintaining our stop on our

final short unit at 115.70 to protect a portion of the profit already

generated.


Short 1 at 117.70, Obj: 105.44, Stop: 115.70.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/JPY




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Under 0.8848 weakens near-term bullish structure.

EUR/GBP has suffered in the same manner as other EUR crosses given the

stresses experienced in the periphery bond markets.

With this in mind, the break higher that occurred at the beginning of the

month to 0.9084 may mark the end of the recovery structure seen since

0.8285, with a return to the 200 day moving average now favoured. This

currently lies near 0.8665.

It is thus our strategy to wait for a bounce higher to evolve for the creation

of a lower high and the resumption of weakness.

A break under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-term

bullish structure.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8900, Objs: 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285, Stop: 0.9005.

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBPEUR/GBP





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Under 1.1806 negates multiple bullish signals.

EUR/CHF had exhibited a number of bullish reversal signals in different

timeframes. All of these were negated with the push under 1.1806.

Given the continued uncertainty regarding periphery spreads versus

bunds, we continue to view the downside as being vulnerable.

With this in mind we next target the 1.1000 region.

The close link between movements in EUR/CHF and periphery spreads

versus bunds makes this pair a prime candidate for sharp moves as new

information regarding events in the periphery becomes available.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Short 1 at 1.1805, Obj: 1.1000, Stop: 1.1805.

EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP





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Prints fresh highs.

Yesterday’s break over 1577.57 now suggests a resumption of the larger

rising trend is now in force, negating our prior bearish bias for the near-

term.

Infact, while the 200 day moving average remains below the price action

the trend is likely to be biased to the upside.

The next immediate target lies at 1600.00 from where a pullback of sorts

may materialise.


Await fresh signal.

GOLD


Gold daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP




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Breaks over the 38.8000 ceiling.

Silver has broken back over the 38.8000 ceiling that we have been

referring to in recent reports. This now warns of a larger corrective phase,

with scope for a further rise to re-test the 45.0000 region

Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and would

still mean that silver’s long-term uptrend remains intact.

We also continue to watch silver’s relative performance against gold, which

is currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.

Now above 38.8475 (26th May high), we next target 39.4825 (11th May

high), ahead of 40.0000 (old psychological level).


Await fresh signal.

SILVER

Spot Silver hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Spot Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP





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www.migbank.comHoward FriendChief Market [email protected]

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes d’OrCH-2008 NeuchâtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

MIG BANK [email protected]

Ron WilliamTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

http://www.migbank.com/

2011 07 14 migbank daily technical analysis report+

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