2011 11 29 migbank daily technical analysis report

8/3/2019 2011 11 29 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MA

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD SHORT 3 1.3480 1.3140/1.3000/1.2860 (Entered 16/11/2011) 1.3480

GBP/USD Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup.

USD/CHF Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.

AUD/USD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

GBP/JPY Buy limit 3 120.25 121.20/123.00/125.72 119.30

EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP Look to sell higher.

EUR/CHF Sell stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230

GOLD SHORT 3 1680 1595/1450/1300 (Entered 23/11/2011) 1740

SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 35.6880

DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT29 November, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been h it the stop will be moved to the entry

point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.



2

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 29 November, 2011

www.migbank.com

Temporary unwinding from oversold conditions.

EUR/USD is temporarily unwinding from oversold conditions. However, it is

still likely to see the bearish impulsive move extend from key overhead

resistance (primarily a 2 year trend and its long-term 200-day average).

Bearish sentiment also remains anchored by heightened contagion fears

driven from the greater European sovereign debt risk.

A sustained close beneath 1.3146 (Oct swing low) will re-establish the larger

downtrend from April and target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870

(2011 major low). Expect resistance to cap at 1.3610 and 1.3730.

Keep an eye on highly correlated risk-related proxies, such as the S&P500

and AUD/USD, which both continue to exhibit downside presssure.

Inversely, the USD Index is maintaining its recovery higher and is fast

approaching the recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%).

Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs

(3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain

strong and help resume the USD’s major bull-run from its historic oversold

extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

Special Report: EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

MIG Bank Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.”

US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

SHORT 3: 1.3480, Objs:1.3140/1.3000/1.2860, Stop: 1.3480

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMA (1.4094)

BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED

BREAKOUTS

UPTREND(2 YEARS)

EUR/USD (Daily)

BREAKOUTZONE

1.4000

1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL) 1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)

+

-

USD INDEX(4 YEARS)

DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL

+27% +19%

TRIGGER(15000)

COT LIQUIDITY

+10%SO FAR

EXTREMENET

US $ SHORTPOSITIONS

9 KEY SUPPORT (73.50-73.00)

1

USDINDEX

200-DMA(75.75)

DEMARK™ BUY SIGNALS

BREAKOUT ZONE

EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP11.9%CAD 9.1% SEK 4.2% CHF 3.6%

9 MONTHHIGH

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embedded


http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54




http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/

mailto:[email protected]










3


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Second leg higher initiated in recovery phase.

GBP/USD saw a minor recovery higher in the hourly timeframe. Today’s

break back over 1.5566 has likely initiated a second leg higher in the

recovery from 1.5423. Scope is now seen for a return to the 1.5700 region.

We remain wary of the generally rangebound nature of the market in the

medium-term timeframe, favouring a return to 1.6167.

A sustained break under 1.5272 is required to turn the medium-term bias

decidedly bearish.

We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in our formulation

of strategy.


Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







4


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Minor rebound capped at 78.24 (DeMark™ Level).

USD/JPY’s minor rebound is being capped at 78.24 (DeMark™ Level) .

Moreover, downside risks remain, with the growing probability of a third

price retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR III) and potentially

even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL).

Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying

pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first

to call the market bottom.

This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

The medium / long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained

move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal

Webinar: USD/JPY’s Long-Term Structural Change

Media Reports: CNBC Bloomberg


Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

82.00

83.30

USD/JPY(Daily1 YEAR)

QUAKESHOCK!

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

POSTG7

MOVE (I)HIGH

PIR II

80.24

POSTBOJ

MOVE (II)HIGH

DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

POSTBOJ

MOVE (III)HIGH

PIR III

MONTHLY DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 – 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERNANTICIPATE

SBREAKOUT(85-79)

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf

http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21




http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.html









http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf



5


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Break over 0.9316 strengthens medium-term outlook.

USD/CHF saw a break back over 0.9316 last week. This structural break

over the October high strengthens the medium-term structure. However,

scope is seen for a corrective phase lower, with resistance anticipated close

to 0.9600, should further strength follow. Demand for Swiss Francs is likely

to continue while yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds remain

elevated, currently trading at 6.570% and 7.320% respectively.

We continue to monitor the German sovereign yield curve with ten year

yields there currently trading at close to 2.259%. If yields in Germany

continue to rise, this will likely mark an acceleration of deterioration in the

Euro Zone.

Movement in USD/CHF is likely to be affected by EUR/CHF should the latter

rate get closer to the 1.2130 region, which marks the lower end of the recent

trading range.


Await fresh signal.

German yield curve comparison, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







6


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Sharp Setbacks.

USD/CAD has triggered a sharp setback, following a short-term DeMark™

exhaustion sell signal.

A directional confirmation above 1.0658 is still needed to unlock the

recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the

rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

Only a sustained close beneath 1.0230 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks

into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9849 and 0.9726 (31st Aug low).

EUR/CAD has broken back beneath its 200-day MA, still within a large

multi-month trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June

swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.

CHF/CAD is now retesting its 200-day MA at 1.1369, while maintaining a

multi-week trading range. This follows the dramatic price slide lower (which

was triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced

more than half of its 2011 gains.


Awaiting New Buy Setup.


USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD (Weekly)

CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

OPENSLARGER

RECOVERY

DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL

USD/CAD Dail

200-DMA(0.9849)

MAJOR RESISTANCE

50% (1.3570)

61.8% (1.3379)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

200-DMA(1.3871)

REVERSALPATTERN

CHF/CAD (Daily)

50%

(1.1488)61.8%

(1.0893)







7


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Unwinding from oversold conditions.

AUD/USD is still unwinding from oversold conditions, following its

accelerated decline through the 1.0000 psychological level.

The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside

pressure on the rate’s multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand

dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-

day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day horizon.

The Aussie dollar has triggered a mild recovery against the Japanese yen

and is now trading back above the neck-line of its two-year distribution

pattern. Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would

signal further unwinding of risk appetite.


Awaiting Renewed Sell Trade Setup.

AUD/USD


AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD (Weekly)

38.2% (0.9144)

50% (0.8546)

61.8% (0.7947)

3 YEARUPTRENDIS UNDER

PRESSURE

STRUCTURALLEVEL

KEYZONE

AUD/USD(1 YEAR)

DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS

200-DMA1.0405

REVERSINGINTO

200-DMA

AUD/NZD(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100

200-DMA

(82.61)

13

38.2% (76.70)

61.8% (68.47)

50% (72.58)

AUD/JPY(Daily)

DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL

RESUMPTION OF

BREAKDOWNADDS TO

RISK AVERSION







8


www.migbank.com

Higher low anticipated for a fresh leg higher.

GBP/JPY may be entering a corrective phase higher following the break out

of hourly bear channel resistance. With this in mind, a higher low is

anticipated ahead of 119.38, should a short-term pullback take place. This

is also supported by the minor recovery seen in equities globally and in

particular in the S&P500.

Although a break over 121.77 could not be achieved, a further leg higher is

anticipated to complete the corrective phase from 119.38.

A failure to hold over 119.38 will warn of a return to 116.84.

Bigger picture a substantial recovery higher is favoured, initially towards

163.09.


Buy limit 3 at 120.25, Objs: 121.20/123.00/125.72, Stop: 119.30

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







9


www.migbank.com

Enters into a near-term corrective phase.

EUR/JPY appears to have completed an initial corrective phase higher, with

scope now for a further swing to the upside. We view the fall that has taken

place since 111.60 as being corrective in nature, suggesting potential for a

further leg higher. The break out of the hourly falling channel that has taken

place during recent sessions is now suggestive of a larger corrective phase

higher.

However, the EUR component of this pair is highly affected by the

movement in EUR/USD. As the yields in Spanish and Italian government

bonds continue to rise, this puts more downside pressure on the EUR. A

break under 1.3146 in EUR/USD will end the rising phase seen since 2010.

This would likely be associated with a fall back down to 100.76 and

potentially lower.

A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the medium-

term outlook more bullish.


Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY







10


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Bias remains bearish.

EUR/GBP continues to frustrate, failing to garner any momentum following

the recent break of the key 0.8530/31 lows. Given the precarious situation

in the Euro-Zone, our mild bearish bias remains, favouring an eventual

return to weakness if core/periphery sovereign debt continues to be sold off.

It is anticipated that if the deterioration in the Euro-Zone continues then

Sterling could be viewed as a safe haven. Thus focus remains on the Italian

and Spanish government bond markets too.

An eventual fall back under 0.8486 is anticipated. With this in mind, the

formulation of a short strategy is still favoured, although a deeper pullback of

the 0.8831-0.8486 fall is required ahead of entry.

Our bias remains mildly bearish with trade continuing under both the 200

day and 50 week moving averages. We keep an eye on the 1.3146 level in

EUR/USD. A push under this level will mark a clear breakdown of

confidence in the EUR.


Look to sell higher.

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP








11


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Re-test of the base of the recent trading range now favoured.

EUR/CHF continues to trade in a tight trading range just under the 1.2500

level. Focus still remains on the yields on periphery and core Euro-Zone

sovereign debt. Over time, this may lead to a renewed desire for a safe

haven, with downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF.

Our strategy remains to trade opportunistically from a momentum

perspective, awaiting a return to the 1.2000 region. Should a re-test of the

1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would

warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability

of a return to this level.

Near-term, a break back under 1.2251 will warn of a failure to re-test the

1.2500 region, suggesting an earlier return to 1.2123/31. In any case, a re-

test of the base of the recent trading range is anticipated over coming

sessions.

It remains to be seen if the SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of

funds into Swiss Francs, that may occur, if further stresses lead to yet

higher yields in Italian/Spanish/French government bonds.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP








12


www.migbank.com

Remains negative beneath 1800.

Short-term price activity remains negative beneath resistance at 1800. The

bearish move is starting to be anchored once again by Gold’s last dramatic

20% capitulation in September.

There is heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly

close beneath $1600/03 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not

been breached in 3 years!

A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this

benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000.

Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached

a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

positions. This trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would

ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

Special Report “Gold’s mountainous peak at risk…beneath $1600” VIDEO

Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)


SHORT 3: 1680, Obj:1595/1450/1300, Stop: 1740

GOLD

Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP


TRENDCHANNEL (12 YEARS)

I

RISK ZONE III

CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000

26%

34%

20%SO FAR

25%

II

COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS

OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG

GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT

IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!

DEMARK™ SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLD’S OVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

BREAKOUT

$1704

$160

DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844

GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS

$153

DOUBLETOP

$1760

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FA




http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202

http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.html












http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202






13


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Key support at $30.0000.

Silver is weakening back into 30.0000 and favours a test the previous swing

low at 26.0700. Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside

risks, following the major sell-off in September.

Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This

allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed

buying interest.

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

multi-week / month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver’s long-

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

resumption higher.

Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio which has now accelerated

higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.


SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

SILVER

Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold /Silver “mint” ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP


BULLMARKET

FROM1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

38.2% (32.3135)

50% (26.9150)

61.8%

(21.5165)

I

II

OVER 30 YEAR BASE PATTERN

Silver HITS 1980 Spike DEMARK™ SELL

KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS

Silver (Daily)

200 DMA(37.0045)

13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 70% FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio







14


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MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,

including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material InterestsMIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or

have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

DISCLAIMER

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to

buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act

of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal

use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK

makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions

expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes

financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be

made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before

making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no

guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the

content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

LEGALTERMS



15


www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

MIG [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 NeuchâtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]



http://www.migbank.com/





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2011 11 29 migbank daily technical analysis report

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