2012 01 06 migbank daily technical analysis report
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8/3/2019 2012 01 06 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MA
S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD Await fresh signal. Mild bias to longs.
USD/JPY Await new buy trade setup above 80.00.
USD/CHF Sell limit 3 0.9610 0.9500/0.9306/0.9176 0.9700
USD/CAD Awaiting new buy trade setup.
AUD/USD Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY LONG 3 119.40 120.50/121.50/122.00 118.90
EUR/JPY Possibly looking to buy short-term. Await signal.
EUR/GBP Look to sell higher.
EUR/CHF Sell Stop 3 1.2130 1.2010/1.1526/1.1002 1.2250
GOLD Stopped for profit at 1605. Two objectives met.
SILVER SHORT 2 34.1300 26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300
DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT6 January, 2012
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more pr ofit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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Hourly consolidation band remains intact for now.
• GBP/USD continues to trade within the confines of a month long trading
range between 1.5780 and 1.5362. A breakout is sought ahead of trade
positioning.
• Sterling is still perceived as a relative safe haven given the continued
elevated yields seen in the Italian sovereign bond market. With this in
mind, should the region near long-term trend-line support be tested,
currently at 1.5135, a degree of demand would be anticipated.
• For now a rise towards the 200 day moving average is possible,
maintaining the old range from last year. Further strengthening of the
USD may not be as aggressively witnessed in GBP/USD, given the
large move that took place in 2008.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal. Mild bias to longs.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Bears break from multi-day range.
• USD/JPY has weakened sharply beneath 78.24 (DeMark™ Level), asprice broke from a multi-day trading range (see hourly chart below).
• Confirmation beneath 77.25 (pivot level) now helps trigger a third price
retracement, that we had been expecting, back to pre-intervention levels
and potentially even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35.
• Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY
buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and
be the first to call the market bottom, within the end of this multi-year
contracting pattern.
• This may first inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through
psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move
would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,
which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.
• The medium / long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward
a major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle
inflection points to trigger over the next few weeks, offering a sustained
move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.
Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal VIDEO
Webinar: USD/JPY’s Long-Term Structural Change
Media Reports: CNBC / Squawk Box & Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting renewed buy trade setup above 80.00.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Strong resistance anticipated near 0.9550/0.9600.
• Sell limit adjusted slightly to 0.9610.
• USD/CHF has broken over 0.9470, increasing the likelihood of a return
to 0.9550 and then potentially 0.9600. However, the 0.9550/0.9600
region is expected to act as strong resistance.
• USD/CHF continues to be a tied to the fate of EUR/CHF and thus the
ability of the SNB to successfully maintain its floor in EUR/CHF at
1.2000. We remain focused on the 1.2130 level in EUR/CHF, below
which should increase the likelihood of selling towards the 1.2000 level.
Fresh highs are still anticipated in 10 year Italian sovereign yields, with
scope then for a minor pullback, maintaining downside pressure on
USD/CHF.
• 10 year yields in Spain and Italy are currently trading at 5.691% and
7.137% versus 6.478% and 7.355%, before the US Dollar based swap
agreement. In both case we can see that the effects of the swap
agreement appear to be wearing off. This reminds us that the
agreement was likely put in place due to a need for US Dollars by
European financial institutions. This is a clear warning sign. These
same yields were trading at 5.531% and 6.991% respectively yesterday.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.9610, Objs: 0.9500/0.9306/0.9176, Stop: 0.9700
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Unwinding from resistance at 1.0425.
• USD/CAD is unwinding sharply from intraday resistance at 1.0425, which
coincided with a short-term DeMark™ exhaustion signal.
• We prefer to wait for a strong directional confirmation higher before
initiating a buy trade setup.
• A sustained break under 1.0220 now suggests further downside into
1.0000.
• Meanwhile, the bulls need to push back above 1.0425 and 1.0524 (25
Nov swing high), in order to trigger a larger breakout from the rate’s multi-
month triangle pattern.
• In terms of the big picture, a directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still
needed to unlock the recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the
upside breakout from the rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of
a major Elliott wave cycle.
• EUR/CAD has breached the base of an important multi-month distribution
pattern. Sustained beneath 1.3393-79 (19th
Sept low/61.8% Fib), now
signals an important breakdown and provides substantial correlation
pressure on to EUR/USD.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting new buy trade setup above 1.0425.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Breaks higher out of triangular consolidation.
• AUD/USD has seen a clear break higher out of the triangular
consolidation that we highlighted last week. This now opens up a return
to 1.0753 over coming sessions.
• Elsewhere, the Aussie has weakened against the New Zealand dollar.
Near-term price activity has mean reverted back over the 200-day MA
and we watch for further setbacks over the multi-day/week horizon.
• The Aussie dollar is also pairing back its mild recovery against the
Japanese yen, while holding above the neck-line of its two-year
distribution pattern.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Scope still seen for a return to 122.00.
• GBP/JPY has found initial support just ahead of 119.00. However, a
higher low still needs to be registered to realise our favoured scenario of
a return to the 122.00 region. We view the recent failure to remain
under 119.38 as building the basis for a minor false break lower, which
will also benefit our near-term scenario.
• Failure to hold over 119.00 will suggest a re-test of the region close to
116.84. Strong support is anticipated close to this level, should
weakness persist.
• This is in line with our longer-term view, where it is perceived that there
is potential for a much larger recovery to develop with scope for a return
to 163.09 and then potentially on to 192.65. However, signs of basing
are still not evident in the medium-term timeframe.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Long 3 at 119.40, Objs: 120.50/121.50/122.00, Stop 118.90.
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Break under 98.66 negates falling wedge scenario.
• EUR/JPY has now broken under the recent hourly low at 98.66 negating
the prior potential for a false break lower in the daily timeframe.
•
This failure to recover to the 101.50 region instead targets 96.84, themid December low from 2000.
• The fate of this pair is still tightly bound to the movement in EUR/USD,
particularly given the rangebound nature of USD/JPY over recent weeks
and months. As with any pair that includes the EUR, we will continue to
monitor Italian yields, anticipating a test of the 7.5% level in the 10 year
maturity.
• In the absence of further stresses out of the core Euro-Zone it would be
expected that a degree of support would be found close to current levels
for a longer-term recovery. Thus event risk is high in relation to bond
market movement, particularly in Italy.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Possibly looking to buy short term.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY
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Short-term pullback sought to enter short positions.
• EUR/GBP has entered into a phase where it appears to be trading more
fluidly without being subject to countless false breaks in either direction,
which had become the hallmark of the pair over recent months.
Medium-term we continue to seek a return towards 0.8068 and
potentially lower. To facilitate better trade location a push higher is
sought ahead of trade formulation.
• The change in characteristics of EUR/GBP is partly attributed to the
breakdown in EUR/USD under 1.3146, which has assisted short
positioning in other EUR crosses too.
• As with all EUR crosses we need to keep a close eye on the core Euro-
Zone sovereign bond markets. Within this environment Sterling may
well be judged as a short-term safe haven, further adding to the
potential for downside pressure ahead. Focus remains on the Italian
bond market where yields are once again trading over 7.000%, with a
host of rollover auctions scheduled for the first half of the year.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Missed sell at 0.8425. Look to sell higher.
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Under 1.2133 to trigger an extension lower.
• This strategy will be negated on a push back over the lower high at
1.2242.
•
EUR/CHF is consolidating just above the key low at 1.2133. A return toand break under this level is anticipated, with scope then for a fresh
attempt at 1.2000. If a break under 1.2000 were to occur, the 1.1800
level would then become the main focus.
• Our trading bias is also affected by the failure over the last three months
to break over the 50 week moving average, warning that the longer-term
down-trend is still dominant. This suggests that a return to weakness
cannot be ruled out.
• Italian 10 year yields are once again trading above 7.000% warning of a
period of stress within the Italian sovereign market. Demand for Swiss
Francs is likely to be linked to yields in core Euro-Zone nations. Given
the longer-term structure, it is doubtful that 7.500% will cap this rate.
• In an environment where 10 year Italian yields are trading at, or near,
7.000% it is likely that the Swiss Franc will see a degree of demand
despite the low deposit rates available.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2010/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2250.
EUR/CHF daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Short-term recovery back towards the 200 day moving average.
• Stopped for profit at 1605, having met two objectives.
• Gold has re-tested its 200-day average, which was recently broken for the
first time in 3 years. The move was triggered by a multi-month trianglepattern breakout (see both daily and intraday charts).
• There is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly
close beneath $1600 and $1530 (swing low).
• A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this
benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze
lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000 (12-year channel–floor/see
top chart insert).
• Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached
a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold
positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would
ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity into summer 2012.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:
Special Report “Gold’s mountainous peak at risk…beneath $1600” VIDEO
Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short stopped for profit at 1605. Initial two objectives met.
GOLD
Gold daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Returns again towards the $30.0000 level.
• Silver’s weak recovery from oversold conditions has tested key support
turned resistance at $30.0000. A sustained close below here now triggers
a test of the previous swing low at $26.0700, reaching 26.1600 so far.
• Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following
the major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally
produces volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough
time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.
• Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000 - 26.0700 over the
multi-week / month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165
(61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain
silver’s long-term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for
the eventual resumption higher.
• Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio (see top chart insert) which
has now accelerated higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over
the next few weeks. This also helps explain recent divergences between
gold and silver.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 34.1300, Objs: 26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300
SILVER
Spot Silver hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
Spot Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or
have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
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distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to
buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act
of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal
use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK
makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions
expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes
financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be
made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before
making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no
guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the
content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 6 January, 2012
www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]
14, rte des Gouttes d’OrCH-2008 NeuchâtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00
Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]
CONTACT
Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]