2011 08 05 migbank daily technical analysis report+

8/6/2019 2011 08 05 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+

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MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD SHORT 3 1.4205 1.3840/1.3770/1.3410 (Entered 05/08/2011) 1.4205GBP/USD Buy limit 3 1.6190 1.6265/1.6476/1.6747 1.6115USD/JPY Awaiting Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.USD/CHF SHORT 1 0.7997 0.7600 (Entered on 27/07/2011) 0.7750USD/CAD Await Trade Buy Setup.AUD/USD Awaiting Sell Trade Setup.GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP Missed sell at 0.8800. Await fresh signal.EUR/CHF Await fresh signal.GOLD Await Trade Setup.SILVER Await Trade Setup.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT5 August, 2011

Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtotheentry

pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis

published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports.

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com


2/15

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EURUSD price activity remains bearish ahead of US Non-Farm.

Lowered stop to breakeven. EUR/USDs price activity remains bearishahead of todays US Non-Farm Payroll release. Indeed, yesterdays price

confirmed a third consecutive bearish reversal pattern, weighed down by

additional failed breakouts from the major Bermuda triangle pattern.

Volatility is expected to spike ahead of todays US employment release.The chart below helps remind us that last times results were much worse-

than-expected at 18k, which extended a slide beneath the historical

resistance zone between 210-340k. Next support holds at -200k.

Our long standing bearish view remains in play while the downtrend (fromMay) holds. A resumption of lower will target 1.3938 (200-DMA), where a

large amount of die-hard trend followers will be watching closely for

repeat support or a big squeeze lower. Only a close above 1.4580 will lead

to a reassessment of this view.

Inversely, the US dollar index is resuming its oversold bounce from keysupport at 73.50-73.00. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of

defence), helping launch a rebound back into 80.00 over the multi-week/month horizon.

SPECIALREPORT:EUR/USDAFallFromGrace?DeclineTargets1.3770/1.3410.Please select link: REPORT VIDEO

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

SHORT 3 at 1.4205, Obj: 1.3840/1.3770/1.3410, Stop: 1.4205

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

US Dollar Index Non-Farm Payroll chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EURUSD's BERMUDA TRIANGLE

REVERSALPATTERN

AT 200 DMA(1.3938)

FAILEDBREAKOUTS

REVERSALPATTERN

PIVOT ZONE

KEY RESISTANCE ZONE(210-340k)

US NON-FARMPAYROLL(2003-2011)

18k

-200k

KEY13 SUPPORT

(73.50)

US DOLLAR INDEX

(Daily 2 years)

9

200-DMA(76.91)

TDBUY

EXHAUSTIONSIGNALS
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf


3/15

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Further leg higher anticipated.

GBP/USD exhibits a number of characteristics on longer-term charts thatare suggestive of further gains. These include a bounce from the 50 week

moving average, currently at 1.6022, and a push above the resistance of a

daily bear channel, warning of a return to 1.6547 and then 1.6747.

Furthermore, long-term trend-line resistance off 2.1162 has been tested assupport, suggesting that the recovery from 1.4231, in the weekly

timeframe, remains intact. (not shown).

We view the price action in the shorter-term as being representative of acorrective phase, with scope for a return to the 1.6200 region. We still

favour the formation of a lower high in this region, for a fresh swing to the

upside.

Failure to remain above 1.6200 will warn of a fresh relapse towards 1.5781,in the longer-term timeframe.


Buy limit 3 at 1.6190, Objs: 16265/1.6476/1.6747, Stop: 1.6115.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


4/15

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Unwinding after recent BOJ intervention.

USD/JPY is unwinding sharply after yesterdays surge higher (above thatall-important level at 80.00), following the BOJs Intervention.

We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, watching for stable pricemoves to initiate a buy trade setup and sustained resumption of the

preferred new structural bull-cycle.

To sustain the impulsive move higher, we still need a close above strategiclevels at 80.00, then 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post

Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).

The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).


Await Buy Trade Setup above 80.00


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

82.00

83.30

WAVE 5

MAJOR TRIANGLE(WAVE IV) SIGNALSFINAL MOVE DOWN

NEW POST WWIIRECORD LOW !!!

(76.25)

84.50

USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)

EARTHQUAKESHOCK!

CONFLUENCEZONE

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR)

POSTG7

MOVEHIGH

BOJ

INTERVENTION(PART II)

MONTHLY TDBUY SIGNAL

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERN

ZONE(88.00)

EXHAUSTION

BREAKOUTTARGET

13


5/15

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Falling wedge formation now potentially complete.

Stop lowered to 0.7750. USD/CHF continues to consolidate in the hourly timeframe after breaking

out of a multi-month falling wedge last Friday.

In the short-term hourly timeframe we still see scope for a return to 0.7600,but would expect strong support to manifest there.

Considering what is taking place in other risk markets we see the potentialfor USD demand to pick up over coming sessions, thus placing a near-term

floor on USD/CHF. In the hourly timeframe we see a slowing of

momentum.

With this in mind we view the current region as potentially offeringmedium-term scope for USD/CHF long positioning. However, we remain

wary of issues in the Eurozone periphery which have been responsible for

the extreme pricing we see now. We await the appropriate short-term set

up.


Short 1 at 0.7997, Obj: 0.7600, Stop: 0.7750.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHFUSD/CHF

USD/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


6/15

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Accelerated recovery hits 200-dMA (0.9824).

USD/CADs accelerated recovery has just hit its long-term 200-dMA at0.9822. A sustained close above this area will signal an important change

in the primary trend, into positive territory around parity 1.0000.

However, price activity remains very extreme at the moment and should bedue some unwinding into near-term support at 0.9751 and 0.9670. We

look to buy on these potential dips for the major move higher.

Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is still holding strong having recently breached its200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.3379 (61.8% Fib).

In contrast, CHF/CAD is still very overbought, having recently accelerated

to a new 2011 high. The overall move has strengthened the uptrend and

continues to signal further unwinding of risk appetite in the global markets.


Awaiting Buy Trade Setup.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

CHF/CAD (Daily)

61.8%(1.3379)

MAJOR RESISTANCE

EUR/CAD(Daily)

50%(1.3466)

DOJI PATTERNSIGNALS

EXHAUSTION

USD/CAD(Weekly )

BULLISH

REVERSALPATTERNEXTENDS

HIGHER

EXPANDING

PATTERN

USD/CAD (Daily)

MAJOR LOW(0.9446)

REVERSAL


7/15

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Key support at 1.0440.

AUD/USDs sharp slide lower is now holding at key support near 1.0443(TDST line). We are watching price reactions into this area closely.

Probabilities favour an temporary oversold bounce around this area, whichwould look to sell into for a break lower into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then 1.0205

and 0.9990.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar.The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds

beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2500/1.2463.

The Aussie dollar has given back gains against the Japanese yen and onceagain resumed its pattern breakout. Next support can be found at 80.42.


Awaiting Sell Trade setup.

AUD/USD


AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMACAPSBEARMKT

AUD/NZD

(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2500 / 1.2463

38.2%(84.09)

61.8%(80.42)

EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNAL

50%(82.25)

AUD/JPY

(Daily)

13 TD

200-DMA(83.75)

BREAKOUT

ADDS TORISK

AVERSION

AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)

200-DMA(1.0303)


8/15

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Volatile rangebound trade persists.

GBP/JPY broke over daily falling channel resistance yesterday, but hasfaced initial resistance close to the 200 day moving average, returning to

trade within the confines of the old bear channel.

Intervention by the Bank of Japan, which originated close to the 126.97level, will need to remain above there in order to have been deemed

effective.

For now we remain wary of extremely volatile range bound trade. Longer-term we remain biased to a return to the region near 190.00.

However, any attempt at long positioning needs to be driven by short-

term structure that is suggestive of further gains in the hourly timeframe at

the very least.


Awaiting signal.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


9/15


10/15

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Meets initial demand at the base of a possible daily channel.

EUR/GBP appears to have completed the rising phase seen since 0.8285. Yesterday saw a re-test of the 200 day moving average, this being our

near-term target. We have thus removed our sell recommendation,

preferring to wait for a better set up.

Initial support has also been noted at the base of a possible rising dailychannel, making todays low (0.8655) key for further potential gains.

We also note that a push under 0.8611 is required to break down thecurrent longer-term bullish structure.


Missed sell at 0.8800. Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBPEUR/GBP



11/15

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Maintains break of falling channel support.

EUR/CHF continues to print fresh all-time lows, reaching 1.0711 thus far. In fact, short-term structure suggests a fresh low remains probable, ahead

of any potential recovery.

Given the strong connection between EUR/CHF and stresses in theEurozone periphery, we need to monitor the periphery bond yields, with

Spanish and Italian yields both trading above 6% currently. If a sustained

break higher in these yields can be achieved this has the potential to causefunding problems for the banks in both of these economies. This would

place further downside pressure on EURCHF.

We thus keep in mind that in the absence of further stresses from theEurozone periphery, a strong recovery higher would become likely, due to

the probable extreme short positioning in this market

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



12/15

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Gold now targets psychological level at 1700.00.

Gold prices now targets psychological level at 1700.00. However, theyellow metal still needs to break above its recent high at 1681.72 in order

to get there. We are watching for a potential trade setup here.

In terms of the big picture, we continue to watch price activity which hastentatively pushed above the 12-year trend-channel, that had also recently

developed a unique long-term DeMark exhaustion signal.

Keeping this in mind, there is still potential for a sharp unwinding lower,which would be healthy following such a powerful surge higher.

Near-term support can be found at 1640.40 (recent low) and 1600(previous psychological level). A sustained close beneath here would warn

of a sharp reversal lower.


Await Trade Setup.

GOLD

Gold daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GOLD Weekly LOG Chart (1999-2011)

TREND

CHANNEL

12 YEARS

ACCELERATION INLONG POSITIONS

GOLD COTNet LargeSpeculationPositions

GOLD Daily (April 2010-2011)

10 consecutiveHigher Closes


13/15

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Sharp bearish reversal warns of further downside.

Silver sharp bearish reversal pattern warns of further downside, while alsosignaling an important divergence from Gold. Only a push back above

42.2300 (recent high) will expose our next target zone at 43.1136-43.8477.

Near-term support can be found at 38.2100 (20 th July low). A break herewould trigger downside risk into 34.0519 (200-dMA).

Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and wouldstill mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.

We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, whichis currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.


Await Trade Setup.

SILVER

Spot Silver daily, weekly, Bloomberg Finance LP


BULLMARKET

FROM1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

OVER BASE

38.2%(32.3135)

50%(26.9150)

30YEAR

61.8%(21.5165)

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High!TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS

UNWINDING 37%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver Ratio

37%13 YEAR LEVEL

TARGET 2(43.1136/43.8477)

Silver (Daily) 13

200 dMA(32.9235)

50%(41.0513)

LEGAL


14/15

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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have

or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and

are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no

representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and

opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In

particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other

advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made

solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a

qualified expert before making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be

reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,

whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and

complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

DIS

CLA

IMER

LEGALTERMS


15/15

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www.migbank.comHoward FriendChief Market [email protected] [email protected]

Technical StrategistBjioy Kar

Tel.+41 32 722 81 00CH-2008 Neuchtel14, rte des Gouttes dOr

www.migbank.com

MIG [email protected]

[email protected] StrategistRon William

CONTACT
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

2011 08 05 migbank daily technical analysis report+

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