2011 07 27 migbank daily technical analysis report+

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MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY L-TERMMULTI-WEEK STRATEGY/POSITION ENTRYLEVEL OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD Awaiting Trade Setup (1.4580 or 1.4260).GBP/USD Buy limit 3 1.6190 1.6260/1.6350/1.6550 1.6120USD/JPY Awaiting Trade Setup above 80.00.USD/CHF SHORT 3 0.7997 0.7897/0.7700/0.7600 (Entered on 27/07/2011) 0.8097USD/CAD Await Trade Setup (neutral).AUD/USD Awaiting Trade Setup.GBP/JPY Await fresh signal. Biased towards shorts.EUR/JPY SHORT 1 117.70 105.44 (Entered on 04/07/2011) 114.70EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8900 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285 0.9005EUR/CHF SHORT 2 1.1650 1.1370/1.1200 (Entered on 26/07/2011) 1.1650GOLD Await Sell Trade Setup below 1582.SILVER SHORT 3 39.2800 36.7750/32.3125/28.9000 (Entered on 20/07/2011) 41.5500

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT27 July, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtotheentry

pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis

published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports.

MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com


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Bears extend beneath extreme support at 78.24.

USD/JPY has weakened further and has broken beneath extreme supportat 78.44/24 (78.6/78.6% Fib retracement-March upswing).

We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, but are more cautious,watching for a potential oversold bounce and sustained resumption of the

preferred new structural bull-cycle. However, a close beneath 76.25 would

change our view.

To signal an impulsive move higher, we still need a sustained close abovestrategic levels at 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post

Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).

The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Await Buy Trade Setup above 80.00

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426

USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

TDST (81.15)

84.50

82.00

83.30

WAVE 5

MAJOR TRIANGLE(WAVE IV) SIGNALSFINAL MOVE DOWN

1

NEW POST WWIIRECORD LOW !!!

(76.25)

USD/JPY (Daily

TDST (83.90)

1 YEAR)

EARTHQUAKESHOCK!

CONFLUENCEZONE

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR)

POSTG7

MOVEHIGH

BREAKINGEXTREME

RETRACEMENT

(78.44/24)

MONTHLY TD

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERN

ZONE

(88.00)

EXHAUSTIONBUYSIGNAL

BREAKOUTTARGET

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mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Under wedge support required to complete pattern.

Sell stop filled in our OCO pair of orders, as detailed below. USD/CHF continues to trade close to the support of a multi-month falling

wedge formation. We continue to expect an eventual break under this

support, ahead of a possible recovery higher.

We also view the short-term structure present since 0.8278 as beingbearish in nature and now look for an extension lower, towards 0.7900

initially.

We also note that a push under the long-term wedge support is requiredto complete this ultimately bullish long term pattern.

Should this break lower take place, the probability of a recovery higherwould then be increased.

We look for a break back over 0.8551 before considering longs.


Short 3 at 0.7997, Objs: 0.7897/0.7700/0.7600, Stop: 0.8097.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

USD/CHFUSD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Bears resume lower and trigger new multi-year lows.

USD/CAD momentum remains negative, while maintaining pressure on itsnew multi-year lows at 0.9407. Corrective activity was originally triggered

after the rates expanding pattern initially failed at key resistance into

0.9906-0.9915 (38.2% Fib-Sept 2010 decline & 200 DMA).

Meantime, our medium/long-term perspective remains neutralised afterthe failed breakout from the multi-month wedge pattern.

Indeed, the bulls must now recapture 0.9913/15 (27th June swinghigh/38.2% Fib), to achieve a sustainable recovery into 0.9968 (17th March

high) and 1.0000 (parity level).

Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is continuing to accelerate lower having recentlybreached its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.3379 (61.8% Fib).

In contrast, CHF/CAD is now developing volatile price swings within a

sideways trading range, having failed to retest its 2011 highs at 1.1887.

Moreover, the pair has also triggered two DeMark exhaustion signals

suggesting risk of further weakness into support at 1.1193 (38.2% Fib).


Awaiting trade setup (Neutral).

USD/CAD


USD/CAD daily and chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD(Weekly )

0.9059

TD

13

EXHAUSTIONBUYSIGNAL

FAILED

FALLINGWEDGE

CHANNEL

BREAKOUT

FROM

EXPANDINGPATTERN

INITIAL FAILURE

USD/CAD (Daily)

AT RESISTANCE

MAJOR LOW(0.9446)

61.8%(1.3379)

MAJOR RESISTANCE

EUR/CAD(Daily)

200-DMA(1.3715)

38.2%(1474.69)

50%(1474.69)

CHF

61.8%(1474.69)

/CAD (Daily)

TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS

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New multi-year high at 1.1081.

AUD/USD has extended to new multi-year highs at 1.1081 and re-established its major upward trend. Next resistance can be found at the

psychological level of 1.1200. We will watch for opportunities to buy on a

pullback.

Meantime, support can be found at 1.1012 (April peak), then 1.0810 and1.0443 (TDST line), thereafter unlocking extended downside scope into

1.0359 (50% Fib), then 1.0205 and 0.9990.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar.The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds

beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2500/1.2463.

The Aussie dollar is stabilising against the Japanese yen, above its multi-month pattern floor. Only a confirmed downside breakout would signal a

switch to risk aversion in the financial community.


Awaiting Trade Setup.

AUD/USD


AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

0.9804

0.9706

KEY SUPPORTV-SHAPE

UPSIDE REVERSAL

0.9537

1.0256

AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)

1.0200200-DMA(1.0234)

200-DMACAPSBEARMKT

AUD/NZD

(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2500 / 1.2463

38.2%(84.09)

POTENTIALBREAKOUT61.8%(80.42)

EXHAUSTION

SELL SIGNAL

ADDS TORISK

AVERSION

50%(82.25)

AUD/JPY

(Daily)

13 TD

200-DMA(83.75)


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Hourly consolidation continues. Breakout sought.

GBP/JPY has thus far met resistance close to the prior swing low at 128.17.Failure to remain below this level on a daily closing basis will increase the

probability of a return to the resistance of the falling channel.

In the meantime, we remain biased to a return towards the support of theweekly channel and then potentially on towards 122.36.

Although the area around the daily channel support has been tested, weexpect a return to this region and then a clear break under this support,

ahead of a possible recovery.

We now await a shorter-term setup, to assist us in the formulation of anexplicit trade recommendation and to this end await a breakout of the

hourly consolidation that has been developing over recent sessions.


Await fresh signal, with a bias to shorts.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Under hourly trend-line support now weakens further.

EUR/JPY has broken down again after completing a recovery phasefollowing the peak at 123.33 and then subsequently failing to hold over

116.00.

We combine this with the recent break under the platform near 113.42/50,which also constitutes a push under the 200 day moving average.

The exhaustion pattern that we witnessed last Friday has led to a period ofweakness.

This has broken under trend-line support off 109.63, which weakens theoutlook further. We next seek a push under 112.04 to potentially increase

the downside momentum, for a return to 109.58.

If a break under 109.58 can be realised a substantial extension lower wouldthen be favoured to follow, potentially beyond 105.44.

We also note that the recent sharp fall has moved the price back under the50 week moving average.

Failure to remain under 113.50 on a daily closing basis will warn of an endto weakness and a return to strength.


Short 1 at 117.70, Obj: 105.44, Stop: 114.70.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPY


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Continues to trade within a rising channel.

EUR/GBP appears to have completed the rising phase seen since 0.8285,with the move lower from 0.9084 meeting 0.8705 thus far.

A return to the 200 day moving average is now favoured. This currentlylies near 0.8668.

We view the current bounce as being corrective in nature within theshorter-term timeframe and seek a lower high close to 0.8900, ahead of a

resumption of weakness. We seek a final swing higher in the shorter-term timeframe ahead of fresh

weakness, potentially leaving a false break higher out of the rising hourly

channel.

A break under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-termbullish structure.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8900, Objs: 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285, Stop: 0.9005.EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBPEUR/GBP



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Further weakness anticipated while under 1.1892.

First objective met, stop moved to entry. EUR/CHF has potentially registered a lower high at 1.1892 last week, after

leaving a false break out of a rising channel.

Combined with the recent break under 1.1610, now warns of a resumptionof weakness with a return to 1.1374 favoured.

The longer-term falling trend remains intact and while under 1.1892 wewould favour a continuation of this larger trend.

We next target the low at 1.1519 under which immediately opens up areturn to 1.1374.

We note, that in the absence of further stresses from the Eurozoneperiphery, that a strong recovery higher would become likely due to the

probable extreme short positioning in this market.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Short 2 at 1.1650, Objs: 1.1370/1.1200, Stop: 1.1650.

EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



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Resumption of uptrend needs to close above 1620-24.

Golds previous resumption of the uptrend still needs to close above 1620-24 and push above key resistance at 1640 in order to confirm sustainable

extensions higher in line with the major uptrend for extensions into the

next key level at 1700.00.

Until then, we prefer to hedge for downside risks following the recentunprecedented explosive upside move, which triggered a confluence ofour momentum exhaustion signals.

However, as previously stated, it is critical the market confirmed a reversalbeneath a filtered price/time trigger point. This downside trigger level still

holds at 1588/82.

In terms of the big picture, we continue to watch price activity within theapex of the 12-year exhaustion pattern (illustrated on the weekly log chart),

which has also developed a unique long-term DeMark exhaustion signal.

Golds COT liquidity indicator (net long positions) remains squeezed withina tight range (as Gold continued to make push to record highs on lower

volume). At this stage, the risk remains for a downside breakout which

would unlock over 1.5 years of sizeable gold long positions.


Await Sell Trade Setup below 1582.

GOLD


Gold daily, weekly chart and COT liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Bullish revival stalls into key level at 41.0513.

Silvers bulish revival is stalling into key level at 41.0513. We are watchingfor a sustained confirmation above here in order to extend another

potential recovery leg higher.

Such a positive scenario would help extend the bullish recovery further intoour next target zone between 43.1136-43.8477.

Meanwhile, neat-term support can be found at 39.1425. A break herewould trigger downside risk into 33.8416 (32.8% Fib), near the long-term

200-day MA at 33.3182.

Remember that key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bullmarket) and would still mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.

We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, whichis currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.


SHORT 3: 39.2800, Obj: 36.7750/32.3125/28.9000, Stop: 41.5500

SILVER

Spot Silver daily, weekly and Gold/Silver Ratio chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


BULLMARKET

FROM1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

OVER BASE

38.2%(32.3135)

50%(26.9150)

30YEAR

61.8%(21.5165)

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High!TD EXHAUSTION

SIGNALSSELL

UNWINDING 37%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver Ratio

37%13 YEAR LEVEL

TARGET 2(43.1136/43.8477)

Silver (Daily) 13

38.2%(34.0015)

50%

(29.1244)

200 MA(32.9235)

50%(41.0513)

LEGAL


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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have

or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and

are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no

representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and

opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In

particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other

advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made

solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a

qualified expert before making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be

reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,

whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and

complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

DIS

CLA

IMER

LEGALTERMS


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www.migbank.comHoward FriendChief Market [email protected] [email protected]

Technical StrategistBjioy Kar

Tel.+41 32 722 81 00CH-2008 Neuchtel14, rte des Gouttes dOr

www.migbank.com

MIG [email protected]

[email protected] StrategistRon William

CONTACT
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

2011 07 27 migbank daily technical analysis report+

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