TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE IN INDIA
A Paradigm Shift That Will Improve the Quality of Life in India
Part 1: Earthquakes
GLOBAL NATURAL HAZARDS THAT
CAN CAUSE DISASTERS• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• TSUNAMIS
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• LANDSLIDES
• WILDFIRES
INDIA IS PRONE TO DISASTERS
FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
• FLOODS
(especially during
monsoon season)
• EARTHQUAKES
(from sources
inside and outside
the country)
• CYCLONES
INDIA IS BIG, DIVERSE, and
CAPABLE
• It is the seventh largest country,
• The second most populous
country with human resources of
over 1.2 billion people having
cultural and religious diversity,
• The most populous democracy, - - -
INDIA IS BIG, DIVERSE , and
CAPABLE (continued)
• With many well- educated and well-
trained people,
• With high-tech and low-tech
capabilities,
• With a large Army
INDIA IS BIG, DIVERSE , and CAPABLE,
and VULNERABLE (continued)
• With many living in poverty,
• With many living in non-
earthquake-resistant housing,
• With cities and towns that are
dependent upon non- earthquake-
resistant infrastructure and critical
facilities.
INDIA FACES MULTIPLE
DISASTER THREATS
• India faces potential disasters each
year from floods, earthquakes, and
cyclones, some of which have
triggered notable disasters in the
past, and very recently, - - -
• That will happen again, unless a
paradigm shift occurs.
INDIA’s NEIGHBORS ARE
ALSO DISASTER PRONE
• India shares land borders with
Pakistan to the west; China,
Nepal, and Bhutan to the
northeast, and Burma and
Bangladesh to the east;
• All have experienced disasters
CONTINUATION OF THE STATUS
QUO WHEN A COUNTRY IS
DISASTER PRONE - - -
Will result in new and more complex
HEALTH PROBLEMS
WILL result in unnecessary
DEATHS AND INJURIES
WILL result in longer and more costly
RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
WHAT DO WE KNOW?
• Disaster resilience has become an
urgent global goal in the 21st
century as many Nations are
experiencing disasters after a
natural hazard strikes, and learning
that their communities, institutions,
and people do NOT yet have the
capacity to be disaster resilient.
WHAT DO WE KNOW?
• Disaster resilience does not just
happen; it is the result of decision-
making for a national paradigm shift
from the status quo to an improved
“coping capacity” that enables the
country to rebound quickly after a
disaster.
PART 1:
Earthquakes
1905,1934,1950, 1990,
1993, 2001, 2004*, 2011
EARTHQUAKES CENTERED
INSIDE INDIA
Ongoing collision of the indo-
Australian and the Eurasian tectonic
plates has created the Himalayan
Mountains and generated many
small and a few great magnitude
earthquakes
COLLISION OF THE INDO-AUSTRALIA AND
EURASIAN PLATES CAUSES EARTHQUAKES
INDIA HAS PEOPLE AND COMMUN-
ITIES AT FUTURE RISK AD INFINITUM
• The inter-plate collision is NOT
going to stop, - - -
• So, many generations of India’s
1.2 BILLION PEOPLE are at risk ad
infinitum from earthquakes
centered inside India.
SEISMICITY MAP
GUJARET, INDIA
EARTHQUAKE
JANUARY 26, 2001
TIMING OF THE
EARTHQUAKE
• It happened at 8:46 am on a
Saturday morning that was also
a national holiday.
GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE
THE CAUSE
A NOTABLE HISTORIC
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
• GUJARAT – Saturday, January 26, 2001,
(Republic Day holiday); M7.7; 8:46 am near
the towns of Bhuj, Bhachau, Anjar, Rapar;
Buildings/houses damaged in Ahmedabad
and partially to totally destroyed in Bhuj,
Bhachau, Anjar, Rapar, leaving 50.000 -
100,000 dead and 600,000 homeless.
GUJARAT: ESTIMATED
ECONONIC LOSS
• Nearly $5 billion
INDIA’s FIVE SEISMIC ZONES:
GUJARAT IS IN ZONE 3
ZONES
• ZONES 1 and 2: (Blue to Yellow-Brown)
Very low to Low seismic activiity
• ZONE 3: (Orange) Moderate seismic
activity
• ZONE 4 : (Light Red) High seismic
activity
• ZONE 5 (Dark Red): Very high seismic
activity
COLLAPSED HOUSES AND
BUILDINGS
• Within a few minutes, poorly
constructed homes and buildings in the
towns of Bhuj, Bhachau, Anjar, and
Rapar, and the city of Ahmedabad were
damaged or destroyed, leaving 50,000
to 100,000 dead and 600,000 survivors
needing medical care and relief
HOMELESS AND NEEDY
HOMELESS AND NEEDY
AHMEDABAD
AHMEDABAD
AHMEDABAD
AHMEDABAD
NO SURVIVORS
AHMEDABAD
NO SURVIVORS
TEMPORARY “SHELTER”
RESPONSIVE TO THE NEEDS
• The Indian government, with
assistance from International
NGO’s, the people, and others
responded immediately and
effectively to the urgent needs.
EXAMPLE OF EMERGENCY
ASSISTANCE
• A relief effort began the next day in
the most-affected towns: Anjar,
Bhachau, Rapar and Bhuj.
• Food and relief kits containing life
essentials and materials approp-
riate for the Jan-Feb weather were
provided quickly to families.
EXAMPLE OF EMERGENCY
ASSISTANCE (continued)
• Medical teams, each consisting
of a doctor and paramedic,
were rapidly mobilized to the
field to provide medical
assistance in the areas hit the
hardest..
EXAMPLE OF EMERGENCY
ASSISTANCE (continued)
• Beginning in February, the
Federation of Indian Chambers of
Commerce and Industry (FICCI)
implemented an 18- to 24-month
reconstruction program to provide
earthquake-resistant housing in
Bhachau, Anjar, Rapar and Bhuj.
A PARADIGM SHIFT TOWARDS
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
RESILIENCE
A THREE STEP PROCESS
TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER RESILIENCE IN INDIA
• Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into
Books of Knowledge
• Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to
Innovative Educational Surges to Build
Professional and Technical Capacity
• Step 3: From Professional and Technical
Capacity to Disaster Resilience
Step 1: Integrate Past
Experiences Into Books of
Knowledge NOTE: A book of Knowkedge is
everything we know or think we know
about India’s earthquakes
BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE
Are “TOOLS” to facilitate India’s
continuing commitment to
minimize the likely impacts of the
inevitable future earthquake,
thereby preventing another
disaster
EARTHQUAKES CENTERED IN OTHER
COUNTRIES HAVE ALSO IMPACTED INDIA
The October 8, 2005 Kashmir,
Pakistan earthquake disaster that
caused 1,200 deaths in India is
one example.
EARTHQUAKES CENTERED IN OTHER
COUNTRIES HAVE ALSO IMPACTED INDIA
The December 26, 2004 Banda
Ache, Indonesia
earthquake/tsunami that killed
15,000 in India is another
example
TSUNAMI WAVES KILLED
15,000 IN INDIA
FIVE UNCONTROLLABLE
FACTORS
• The severity of a disaster is
exacerbated by five uncontrollable
factors: 1) the time of day, 2) the day of
the week, 3) the time of the year, 4) the
magnitude and shallow depth of the
quake, and 5) the poor soils and
mountainous terrain of the region.
TWO CONTROLLABLE
FACTORS• The severity of a disaster is
exacerbated by two other factors that
tend to happen gradually over time:
• 1) the poor quality of construction of
buildings and infrastructure, and
• 2) the loss of capacity to anticipate and
prepare for kinds of socioeconomic
losses that occur in a disaster.
Step 2: From Books of
Knowledge to Innovative
Educational Surges to Build
Professional and Technical
Capacity in India to Minimize
Likely Impacts in the Next
Earthquake Disaster
NOTE: Step 2 is a task for a
Nation’s “Academies of Science,
Engineering and Medicine,” its
educational institutions at all
levels, and its electronic and
print media that provide public
information
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
EARTHQUAKES
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION
AND PLAN
TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
LACK OF DETAILING AND
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO NON-
STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
CAUSES
OF RISK
CASE HISTORIES
GOAL: MINIMIZE THE “DOMINOE
EFECTS” OF THE NEXT DISASTER
Step 3: From Professional and
Technical Capacity to Science-
based Decision-making for a
Paradigm Shift from the status
quo to Disaster Resilience in
India
NOTE: Step 3 is a task for a
Nation’s “decision-makers,” (i.e., its political leaders,
stakeholders, and leading
professionals)
who have a basis for deciding
on the nature and scope of a
national paradigm shift
LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS
INCREASED
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY
A DISASTER:
INSUFFICIENT
CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY
MINIMIZED IMPACTS OF THE
NEXT EARTHQUAKE:
CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
INDIA’S
COMMUNITIESDATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•NATURAL HAZARDS
MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
POLICIES TO
MINIMIZE IMPACTS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION/PREVENTION
•EARLY WARNING
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCT.
POLICY OPTIONS
