Download - Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria
![Page 1: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria
Friday, July 27th 2012Kyoto, Japan
Richard WilsonMallinckrodt Professor of Physics (Emeritus)
Harvard University
![Page 2: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
I first wish to thank the organizers of this International Conference for inviting me
to come and tell you my opinions on the tragic events that you have faced.
It is indeed a great pleasure to be here. I am a small person and have always
been shorter than my friends and family. So it is an especial pleasure to come to
a place where everyone is the right height!
![Page 3: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
In Any Situation Compare Risk and Benefit
• This is done all the time, sometimes explicit often implicit.
• If the situation changes (such as an unexpected accident) a different Risk-Benefit calculation is appropriate.
• True for any technology, nuclear or otherwise
• Best to have the calculation IN ADVANCE
so that panic does not set in
![Page 4: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Effects of Radiation on people:What do we know from previous incidents?Those who do not understand history are
condemned to repeat it
Medical X rays
Radium Dial painters
Hiroshima-Nagasaki
Windscale (UK)
TMI
Chernobyl
Tokai (Japan)
Theft of medical Source (Brazil)
![Page 5: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Medical X rays
• The advantage of medical X rays is great (one can see a fracture!)
• Physicians argued (correctly) in 1900 that medical X rays were so beneficial that they outweighed any adverse effect.
BUT• The same benefit could be gained
with 100 times less risk • As late as 1980, X rays were done
badly
![Page 6: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Nuclear Power in Ordinary Operation
• Radiation doses can be kept small both for the public and for the workers very easily for a cost much less than the cost of electricity
• Therefore a cost-benefit calculation says : do so and make doses ALARA (As Low As Reasonably Achievable)
• BUT when something out of the ordinary occurs
this calculation NO LONGER APPLIES• The basic elements of a more appropriate
calculation can be found from basic science and from history and should be understood in advance
![Page 7: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Avoid Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS)
ARS can occur if dose in a week is: > 200 Rems (2 Sv).
It can result in death within a few days.At 400 Rems (4 Sv) The guts are destroyed and death soon follows.
Evacuation to avoid ARS is appropriate.At Fukushima, no one in the public got
ARS.the highest exposed WORKER got 0.2 Sv
MORE RADIATION COULD HAVE BEEN ALLOWED
AS SOON AS ACCIDENT OCCURREDImmediate Evacuation Unnecessary
![Page 8: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Chronic Effects Doses can accumulate over yearsand chronic effects can be related
to the CUMULATIVE DOSEcancer
heart disease genetic effects
No cancers are caused specific to radiation
But radiation can cause an increase in natural cancer rate
Perhaps 30% at 2 Sv (200 Rems)(maybe much less)
![Page 9: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
What did history say one should do?
A big effect would be the chain: •iodine drops on ground•Cows eat the grass concentrate iodine in milk•Children drink milk•Concentrate in thyroidSO BREAK THIS CHAIN AT ONCE•Windscale (1957) confirmed that: •Tell children not to drink local milk for a month Not done early enough at Chernobyl
![Page 10: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Immediate Actions Planned in Advance
Allow radiation exposure standards to rise at once to earlier allowed levels:•10 Rems (0.1 Sv) (average) per accident•80 Rems (0.8 Sv) for life saving activities •80 Rems (0.8 Sv) for an astronaut•More for elderly volunteers
If no ARS then DO NOT EVACUATE AT ALL for 2 days to allow a carefully considered wise decision
![Page 11: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
First hydrogen explosion
• Wind was blowing out to sea! (Good)
• Evaluate effects at site boundary
(My evaluation was a day late waiting for the numbers to be available in English or German)
![Page 13: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
My Estimate of Dose at Site Boundary
![Page 14: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
My Dose Calculation at Site Boundary
March 2012 Calculation– The releases at first three days
unimportant. But those of Tuesday/Wednesday (after wind changed) were crucial.
– Peak probably noble gases (little effect) followed by cesium. (134 and 137)
– Take peak and multiply by width– I found a site boundary dose of about 2
Rems (0.02 Sv) and falling–My 2011 CAT scan doses totaled 2.4 Rems– Should I or anyone, be worried?
![Page 15: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
My Report (for Massachussetts)
After TMIOnly a few isotopes actually matterA driving force needed to disperse
radionuclides
TMI: almost no dispersive force
Chernobyl: initial explosion plus graphite fire at 4000 ° F (2200 ° C)
Fukushima only hydrogen explosion and fuel at 1900 ° F (1050 ° C)
![Page 16: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Evaporation Temperature
184°C
671°C
1750°C
990°C
![Page 17: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Products of Fission Gases
(1) Noble Gases (Kryton,xenon)(2) Iodine goes to thyroid: leukemia, thyroid cancers (Do not drink milk for a month)
Solidssublimate as temperature goes up
(A) Cesium 134, 137. do not stay in body(B) Strontium, transuranicsThese only sublimate at higher temperature, not much even at Chernobyl
Table not broken down by age (MY MISTAKE!)
![Page 18: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Rems/man or manRems?
• We need the effect on an individual or the small group being affected then Rems per man is the proper description(emphasized by the late Rosalyn Yalow, Nobel Laureate who died a couple of months ago)
• Traditionally health physicists assume a linear dose response and then it is clear that the societal effect is best expressed in Man Rems or Person Sievert
![Page 19: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Adverse Effects of Evacuation
– Stress can increase cancer rates 5% or more
–Direct loss of life due to lack of facilities
–NO ONE CONSIDERED THESE AT ALL– These could have been discussed in
advance– Scientists discussed these after TMI and
adverse effects of evacuation were the only casualties!
![Page 20: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Chairman Gregory Jaczkotestimony in US Congress
March 17th 2011 “ Recently, the NRC made a recommendation
that:Based on the available information that we have, that for a comparable situation in the
United States, we would recommend an evacuation to a much larger radius than has currently been provided in Japan. As a result of this recommendation, the ambassador in Japan has issued a statement to American citizens that we believe it is appropriate to
evacuate to a larger distance up to approximately 50 miles.”
![Page 21: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
This recommendation was not accompanied by a justification .
I formally objected within a week but my objection was not acknowledged by NRC
Jaczko’s recommendation was echoed by President Obama and
had an immediate deleterious effectIt has not to my knowledge been explained or
withdrawn by Dr Jaczko or the President
Once the President had said something motives other than public health took precedence.
![Page 22: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Sensible discussion became difficult
Media editors would no longer admit letters and comments from experts(I was effectively silenced)
Sensible journalists were cowed.
Japanese media amplified it still further.
![Page 23: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
ApologyI cannot speak for
Dr. Jaczko or President Obama. But I make a personal apology to all the
Japanese people. I regret that I was unable to stop these damaging statements
I have requested a formal review by NRChttp://physics.harvard.edu/~wilson/Comment by Richard Wilson.doc
![Page 24: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
What was the effect on the way to Tokyo?
• I looked at the data published by MEXT (Ministry of Education,Culture,Sports,Science & Technology in Japan) and by KEK (High Energy Accelerator Research Organization)
• The first slide is from MEXT, the second is the same BUT different axes. It does not look so bad!
![Page 25: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
What about Ibaraki? (on way to Tokyo) Cumulative 0.4Sv (40 mRem) (1/10 of yearly background)
![Page 26: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
It looks different with different scale. Dose the same but seems negligible
![Page 27: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
At KEK the numbers are still smaller.
My friends at KEK understand radiation.
![Page 28: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Subsequent study (IAEA, INPO, TEPCO, etc)
confirms:
•No one got Acute Radiation Syndrome•Highest exposure in a worker: 30 Rems
NOT 400 Rems!
•If there are cancers the probability of causation (POC) will be less than 50% in
all but a few cases.
![Page 29: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Threshold or linearity?
It is important that you understand the argument
for low dose linearity
BUT when dose is low it should not matterBut do not in public argue with your supporters who reject the threshold
arguments
Data only exist at levels much higher than background
![Page 30: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Alternate Dose-Response ModelsData above region of interest
![Page 31: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Cancer Over Background
Excess Dose
![Page 32: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Low dose Linearity is a General Argument
• Probability of dying in a car accident in Harvard Square is roughly proportional to the number of cars!
• If the medical outcomes is not distinguishable from an outcome occurring naturally then the argument applies
• Inherent in the multistage theory of cancer
• Lung effects caused by air pollution
![Page 33: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) report
assuming low dose linearityUS National Academy of Sciences
Not broken down by age
![Page 34: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
BUT Deposition to NW of plant highest from Tuesday/Wednesday releases
![Page 35: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Sv
0.103
0.225
0.101
0.01
0.001
0.001
0.23
0.1
0.1
![Page 36: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
What should a decision maker have done (my personal opinion)?
• Order an immediate evacuation for many km ? • Make it easy for any VOLUNTARY evacuation
– to avoid panic as happened after Katrina
• Do simple steps to reduce exposure to fall out – including measurement
• ORDER all out clean up for years • Facilitate individual towns and people in
voluntary steps
• Richard Wilson paper in DOSE_RESPONSE (2012): “Evacuation Criteria After a Nuclear Accident:
A Personal Perspective”
NO
YES
NOYES
YES
![Page 37: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Comparison with other disasters
10,000,000 per year
5,000 upwards
![Page 38: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
• Even under the usual conservative model of low dose linearity
• Natural background every year produces 2000 the number of cancers in the world as Fukushima did in a lifetime!
• Which should the world worry about more?
![Page 39: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Public Panic may have stopped nuclear power for 50 years
Nuclear Engineers only emphasize safety improvements
Radiation experts and basic scientists are silent
They allow nonsense to dominate the discussion
Cost is determined by virulent public opposition
![Page 40: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Yet problem is important for terrorism:(1) Take 1000 Ci medical source(2) Add a few pounds TNT(3) Explode in Wall Street
EFFECT:(A) Less than 10 people die (situation in Brazil)(B) 20 square miles out of action using existing conservative regulations
THIS MAKES ACTION ATTRACTIVE FOR A TERRORIST
Many Nuclear Power Programs are Cancelled
![Page 41: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Even More Important
What do you do if someone explodes a nuclear bomb in Osaka Harbor?
Run away as fast as you can? Take shelter for 24 hours till radioactivity
does and listen to which way the wind is blowing?
Then if you are in the plume run fast,
but which way? Away from explosion? Sideways away from plume?
NO
YES
NO
YES
![Page 42: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Thank you for listening
![Page 43: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
![Page 44: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
![Page 45: Learning from History – Evacuation Criteria](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062806/56814f33550346895dbcc959/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)