dr graeme anderson - forecasts, seasonal variability and agriculture
TRANSCRIPT
Forecasts, seasonal variability & agriculture
Graeme Anderson, Climate Specialist, AgricultureDEDJTR Victoria
DEDJTR Vic – Seasonal Risk• Climate literacy of Vic agriculture• Climatedogs, variability & change• Monthly “commentary” - youtube• Global/Aust forecast comparisons• Soil moisture probe data for 9 locations• 100 forums/year – upscaling – climate drivers & variability• Also, colleagues across policy, RD&E areas • Climate change trends
Key climate influencers
for Victoria’s rainfall:
• ENSO – Pacific Ocean
moisture source
• IOD – Indian Ocean
moisture source
• SAM – the fronts….
• STR – the highs…..Key drivers of our seasonal
variability in Victoria – always
have been and always will be!
(BOM, CSIRO reports etc)
IOD
STR
ENSO
SAM
(DEDJTR The Break survey Sept 2014)
Valued for:• Being timely (99.0%)
• Improving knowledge and understanding of seasonal climate variability (97.3%)
• ‘The Break’ improved their ability to make decisions that manage seasonal risk (90% yes)
• (Note 2850 subscribers to The Break)
(The Break survey – Sept 2014)
The most frequent on-farm management changes reported as a result of receiving DEDJTR seasonal climate information are: • Adjustments to stocking rates (25.9%)• Changing crops (15.4%)• Modifying fertiliser management (15.4%)• Adjusting feed/fodder or grain allocations (11.7%)• Changes to time of sowing or inputs (11.1%)• Apply conservative approach/risk mgmt (10.5%)
Extension via networks, advisors, agronomists, farmer groups, consultants, retail etc
2014 Rainfall - www.bom.gov.au
Surveys from 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2014 – Decision emphasis on tools
Vic farmer Surveys….
•Farmers have observed changes to their seasons & weather patterns (and is skewed by recent events)
•There is a range of opinions as to why they think t his is happening (natural cycle or is this different?)
•Beware language –the term “climate change” is used to mean both natural and man made (and much more!)
•Unclear about local temperature trends (only 1 in 4 thought their district was getting warmer!)
•Need to ensure core drivers for climate “variability ” are understood better…….until this is explained, very difficult to context climate change and our “new climate” in which farmers are expected to adapt to…….
The Key ingredient for getting better?
A- Better forecasts?B- Better climate literacy so we ‘understand’ foreca sts?C- Better seasonal risk tactics/tools/decisions?D- All the above?“What’s the pecking order?”
Farmers doing amazing job:• Modern technologies, equipment, genetics, systems• Improved farm/regional infrastructure (eg water,
fodder, communications etc)• Growth in local & export markets• Business management for variable years & income• Farm planning, soils, pasture cover, NRM skills
Victoria - Since 1996 3 years above average rainfall - & warmer too….
Key climate influencers
for Victoria’s rainfall:
• ENSO – Pacific Ocean
moisture source
• IOD – Indian Ocean
moisture source
• SAM – the fronts….
• STR – the highs…..Key drivers of our seasonal
variability in Victoria – always
have been and always will be!
(BOM, CSIRO reports etc)
IOD
STR
ENSO
SAM
2009 2011
ENSO 68% 81%
IOD 37% 50%
STR 6% 17%
SAM 4% 16%
Percentage of Victorian farmers aware of the climat e driver AND agree it affects their local district seasonal rainf all
* DEPI The Break Survey 2014 n=304 – Does ENSO/IOD Affect spring rainfall in my district?
DPI Vic Farmer Climate Surveys
(2009; n = 1503) (2011; n = 1305)
Vic Farmer Climate Literacy……
2014*
96%*
94%**The Break readers
DEDJTR Dale Grey
DEDJTR Dale Grey
Aug-Oct
Beer and Skittles
Cope OK
Challenging
Very Challenging
Year El Nino Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Aug-Oct
1930 Yes 0 27 6 22 79 10 81 70 31 105 24 106 561 206
1986 Yes 3 15 1 64 79 22 94 50 52 83 23 88 574 185
1997 Yes 31 0 11 2 75 25 14 73 91 17 55 4 398 181
1951 Yes 14 72 0 37 75 86 88 70 16 89 14 24 585 175
1963 Yes 87 2 40 9 57 73 69 53 70 50 12 8 530 173
1941 Yes 57 14 38 23 8 43 75 40 78 50 29 14 469 168
1913 Yes 1 27 65 40 56 26 26 41 53 48 10 16 409 142
1991 Yes 113 0 13 38 2 157 45 67 68 3 22 61 589 138
1905 Yes 24 20 1 63 62 70 73 17 42 74 12 14 472 133
2009 Yes 0 2 20 28 23 62 70 46 71 13 112 28 475 130
1965 Yes 4 0 8 31 69 32 83 91 24 11 77 25 455 126
1911 Yes 3 148 41 4 52 70 44 16 79 13 2 41 513 108
1919 Yes 1 52 22 7 49 29 32 27 58 20 8 52 357 105
1957 Yes 3 91 19 24 14 67 16 30 30 45 13 24 376 105
1969 Yes 6 73 67 20 66 12 57 48 44 13 34 27 467 105
1972 Yes 25 73 17 31 48 21 37 58 22 25 49 0 406 105
1888 Yes 15 8 15 17 72 29 47 54 24 14 11 27 333 92
1946 Yes 94 87 54 19 42 48 78 35 19 37 31 27 571 91
1918 Yes 13 33 40 64 97 66 34 48 13 23 11 12 454 84
1902 Yes 10 6 59 3 5 53 15 24 25 31 5 55 291 80
1925 Yes 48 48 24 9 64 73 42 22 49 8 26 3 416 79
1987 Yes 61 46 8 23 88 84 48 30 17 32 14 63 514 79
1977 Yes 6 18 30 25 63 64 19 30 22 26 35 9 347 78
1899 Yes 24 48 57 25 42 124 2 24 15 33 50 5 449 72
2002 Yes 12 28 6 19 30 39 25 27 26 16 15 33 276 69
1940 Yes 16 3 8 44 8 12 42 13 44 9 17 19 235 66
2006 Yes 25 10 11 48 31 15 57 19 40 1 16 10 283 60
1896 Yes 17 40 33 72 40 17 31 17 41 0 43 4 355 58
1994 Yes 24 43 6 3 34 73 37 14 15 20 14 2 285 49
1982 Yes 28 1 42 15 29 29 12 16 12 12 5 19 220 40
1914 Yes 12 2 16 48 21 15 19 11 1 0 21 38 204 12 DEDJTR Dale Grey
3mth outlooks Victoria – Dale Grey “Fast Break”6 out of 11 models slightly drier signal for next 3 mths…..
Seasonal Forecasts
“A bit like getting the minutes of the latest Reserve Bank Board meeting...”
“Is there anything special we need to be mindful of about present situation?”
“A quick heads up”
Trusted source of
science & advice
But, for climate &
seasonal forecasts –
pathways to connect
the science (RD&E)
from global to local?
Seasonal Forecasts…
Who do you trust?
What’s missing?
Adapting to bunch of changes…….The three “P”’s of climate change impacts:•Physical – effects of what the climate does (heat waves, droughts, floods, wild weather etc)•Policy – the impacts of changes to policy (reform around issues such as water, carbon trading, renewables, bushfires, planning, drought support, transport etc)•People – how others respond (banks, insurance, consumers, trade/market/supply chains, etc)
Fertcare Carbon Farming Extension Project (E&O)
Youtube clip “Why the fuss about GHG’s?”
Soil Carbon Snapshot(& video)
Science summaries and nitrous oxide BMP’s
Plus some other great Fed funded “CFI Extension & Outreach” Projects
Delivered by trusted farm livestock advisors & consultants (RIST)
What’s under farmer’s control?
Tools, tactics, strategies….
Production & profitability……
• Those that “Make it happen”• Those that “Watch it happen”• Those that go “What
happened?!”
The response………
Ron Barrassi has a saying………
………..there are 3 types of people:
Our role……help to create a
“Mindset”
for Adaptation
“Making decisions today,
that leave us better off in future.”
“Mindset”
for Managing Variability & Adaptation
“Making decisions today,
that leave us better off in future.”
What do you think we need more of?..........
