drivers and barriers to sustainable energy development in the … · 2017. 5. 19. · emanuela...

Drivers and barriers to sustainable

energy development in the MENA region Prof. Emanuela Colombo,

Rector’s Delegate to “Cooperation and Development” - Politecnico di Milano

UNESCO Chair in Energy for Sustainable Development

Department of Energy

Engineering Without Border

Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair 2

Energy

Development

Rights & Equity

Emanuela Colombo - POLIMI – UNESCO Chair

…to the Sustainable Development paradigm

a strategy for an inclusive “growth” in the post 2015 agenda

From the 8 Millennium Development Goals…

the mainstream of development for DCs in Y2000

The Global SD Challenge

Global Society has to face interconnected & complex challenges: • Interdependency, Internal inequity, financial, economic and structural crises • Not equitable distribution of natural resources and raw materials

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Economic Environmental Social


…what about Energy?

“Energy is essential to socio-economic development and to improve the quality of life”

International Energy Agency, 2005

Since then, energy has jumped at the forefront of the global agenda: • achievement of the MDGs

• global security (raw materials, food, water….) • environmental protection

• sustainable development

The Global SD Challenge and Energy

Sustainable Energy will be a pillar within the post 2015 agenda

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http://unsdsn.org/


Energy and the economic dimension

Total Primary Energy Supply Gross National Income

Versus Electric energy Consumption

Energy & Sustainable Development

Quantitative interdependency between Energy & Development

IEA, WB, UNDP 2012

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Energy Development Index

Energy and the social and environmental dimension Human development index

Energy Development index

Versus

IEA, WB, UNDP 2012

Energy & Sustainable Development

Malnutrition

Versus

Share of modern fuels

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Sustainable Energy should be a “right” for all

Some Philosophical achievements that should drive policies

• Energy does not determine human dignity.

• With zero/poor access, fundamental rights may not be guarantee

Energy comes to be an instrumental right

Energy, Right & Equity

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http://www.google.it/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.waterlex.org/?post_events%3Dwater-energy-and-human-rights&ei=ygppVIzZDI3jO-zjgeAF&bvm=bv.79142246,d.ZWU&psig=AFQjCNHsDlD-9jzKYqzPxOcsL4PwkURoLQ&ust=1416256574645411


Energy, Right & Equity

An issue of QUANTITY: access to energy

1.3 billions No access to electricity

1 billion, no access to reliable electric grid, regular provision of EE

2.6 billions rely on traditional biomass for domestic need

95% in LIE 80% in rural area

90% in informal suburbs 5-15% annual outages

4 millions deaths /y 15% efficiency

Low income

countries

Middle Income

Country

High Income

Country 50-75 millions in EU are affected by “fuel poverty”

An issue of QUALITY: affordability (energy may cost 10 times EU standard) … reliability…. safety

IEA, 2014


Energy

In the MENA Region


Energy Needs in the MENA Region

MENA Region Profile Human Devlopment Index - > African average - Similar to South Africa (BRICS)

GDP - Less then 2 African average, - ½ then of South Africa

Population Share between urban and rural is

around 50%

• S . Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - Sustainable energy

in Africa: A comprehensive data and policies review, Renewable and

Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, September 2014, Pages 656-

686, ISSN 1364-0321,

• Focus on Africa, WEO2014

IEA, WEO2014

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MENA region Forecast

GDP annual growth rate (%) : 2012 - 2040

3.4 4.7

3.6

MENA Region 4 %

Global Level

Africa

Middle East

SSA 5.1

Population

0.9 2.2

1.4 2.4

2 % Focus on Africa, WEO2014

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TPES per capita - Double then other Africa region, - 1/3 of South Africa

Electricity per capita - >> then other Africa regions, - ¼ of South Africa

CO2 per capita - >> then other Africa regions, - Even of those with similar TPES pc = > Fossil fuel driven mix

Energy Economy

S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - “Sustainable energy in Africa…”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept. 2014

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TPES (Mtoe)

Energy Indicators


Energy Resources in the MENA Region

Key notes for the MENA region

- Dominated by Oil (50%) - roughly 40% Gas

- Biofuels /bioenergy 10% - Few % for Hydro and Coal

Primary Energy Mix


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TPES share by fuel



Electricity Mix


- Dominated by Gas ( 60%) - roughly 20% Oil

- Hydro is roughly


Power Sector


2 over 5 energy pools in the African Regional Economic Communities - Comité Maghrébin de l’Electricité (COMELEC) - Central African Power Pool (CAPP) - Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) - West Africa Power Pool (WAPP)

- Southern Africa Power Pool(SAPP)


- Algerian holds 41% of IC in COMELEC

- Egypt holds 78% in EAPP

- Capacity is dominated by thermal plants

- Hydro is expected to growth (=>in EAPP, WAPP and SAPP) - kW/100 habitants is higher in COMELEC, SAPP (< 1/2 the EU std)


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Networking

Energy Indicators


Energy & C02 Intensity and Pollution

Energy Effectiveness in the MENA Region


Energy intensity - Static situation - Lower values if compared to other African

regions

CO2 intensity - Among the Highest in Africa - < South Africa, > Soutern Africa


Electricity intensity (toe/1000 USD)

C02 intensity (tonnes/1000 USD)

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Effectiveness


Main Enegy Issues In the

MENA Region


Quantity: the Energy Development Indicator

Main Issues in the Mena region


EDI tracks the progress towards the use of modern fuels (electricity, LPG, natural gas, kerosene,paraffin, ethanol and biofuels ) and modern energy services


- EDI is higher then the rest of Africa

- Low “installed power per capita” affect EDI

- Higher cost (lower affordability)

- only 1 M people over 650 in Africa without access to EE & modern fuels

EDI

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Quality: the reliability of the power sector

Main Issues in the MENA region


- Low level of reliability, exacerbated by weak regional network

- Loss of productivity for African enterprises due to frequent outages

- Unreliable electricity is a main constraint for African firms’ business

- (off grid) Captive generation own genset (increase firms’ costs)

- (on grid) Emergency power systems (short term leases, few % of GDP)


Outages affects business in a direct

way by reducing annual sales

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Security: the energy strategy

OIL GAS


- Africa is the second net exporter of Oil after Middle East

- Oil proven reserves are huge: similar to Latin America, 1/5 Middle East, 11 OECD EU

- Major Oil producers are in the North and

Weste: Nigeria, Angola, Libya, Algeria

- Africa is the second net exporter of Gas after non-OECD EU and Eurasia

- Gas proven reserves are huge: 2 Latin America, 1/5 OECD America, 3 OECD EU

- Major Gas producers are in the North

and West: Algeria Nigeria, Egypt, Libya

- Gas flaring practice is huge (7% in Algeria)


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- Few contribution from renewable energies

- Large size plants are limited - Hydro > 1 GW (Egypt - Aswan ) - Wind > 500 MW (Egypt and Morocco) - Large scale Solar (Algeria and Morocco)

- High potential for the whole continent

=> a total potential of more than 13.700 TWh/year has been estimated by IRENA

- High potential in the MENA Region

- Mainly for Wind and Solar

- When compared with electricity TFC

Security: the energy strategy RENEWABLES Installed Capacity (MW)

Electricity Generation Potential / by electricity TFC (%)

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The way foreward

for the MENA Region


Towards a better-functioning of the MENA energy sector

The way forward for the MENA region

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How to exploit domestic resources for improving the

national energy systems to boost

socio economic development

Thus overcoming some of exogenous and endogenous barriers linked to institutional and political , economic and financial, technical and cultural barriers

1. MENA countries are endowed with energy resources, fossils and renewable

2. Energy system is weak in term of quantity, quality & security of the supply

3. the opportunities a more reliable energy system might offer to sustain the economic growth are often missed


• Power sector investment, • achieving universal electricity access in urban areas • reducing power outages • Increasing the penetration of renewable energies

• Deeper regional co-operation and integration, • facilitating new regional-scale generation and transmission projects • expanding cross-border trade can be a cost-effective way to increase reliability and

affordability but this is often hindered by technical and political barriers

• Improved management of resources and revenues, • adopting robust and transparent processes, revision of subsidies policies … • more effective use of oil and gas revenue, when available

• Broad improvements in governance

• Relevance of the domestic capacity to formulate /implement sound energy policies


1 dollar of additional power sector investment can boost GDP by $15.

……taking the “African Century Case” as an example….

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Key Actions toward a MENA Energy System boosting regional economy


1. NOT the unique answer when high reliability & energy density are required

2. Direct advantages • decentralized /modular systems (captive power); • In some areas they are cost effective • unlock national resources thus increase energy security & efficiency • may open new export/revenues (carbon credits) • increase regional integration

3. Indirect advantages • REs act as booster for the education sector

• capacity building is needed for the required work force @ different level • research/innovation capacities are needed within local academia & institutions

• Provided that capacity building and integrated management of resources is established is set up other benefits may be added: • employment opportunities may increase • policies and strategies can be better assessed….


Which role for Renewable energies (REs)?

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More complex to manage

Storage, control..

Smart grid system


Sustainable Energy strategies Technologies Business models Enabling Policies

long term development

Multiplier Socio-Economic effects Local Needs

… human capital is ALWAYS an asset

Equity

Local Resources

Thank you for you kind attention!!! And Good Luck for your “energy” future

drivers and barriers to sustainable energy development in the … · 2017. 5. 19. · emanuela...

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