EARLY WARNING ANALYSIS FOR HUMAN

PREPAREDNESS AND CONFLICT PREVENTION

IN KASHMIR

By Suzette Lewis, Sarah McKenzie, Troy Powell Jas Palta

and Ashlyn Exeley

SOCIO ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

• Decolonization created new structures

o Introduction to ‘nationalism’ in India sharpened religious divide

o Effect of combining numerous kingdoms and fiefdoms into two states

• Rise of political consciousness

• Legislated human rights violations (ie Armed Forces Special Powers Act 1990)

• Insurgency

o Internal jihadists until 1995 when externals were introduced

• Bad leadership

• Build-up of military

• Lack of rule of law Ethnic Identity

• Split between Muslims (majority) and Hindu (minority rulers)

STATE AND INSTITUTIONS

India:

- democratic

- starting to privatize in response to fast economic growth

- nuclear state

Pakistan:

- Unstable democracy

- in the process of constitutional reform

- historically military rule

- weak judiciary

- nuclear state

Kashmir:

India-administered Kashmir

- state constitution

- elected government (questionable)

Pakistan-administered Kashmir

- administered by Pakistan

- no democratic representation

REGIONAL/INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION

History of Settlements, Coastal Settlements from 1501-1709. British East India Company (Monopolistic arm of the British government) Came in like other mercantile forms into port cities where they traded for textiles.) Biggest cities of India created during this time. As the political vacuums in India spread Britain got more aggressive. Mid 1700s East India Company won a territorial dispute over a Bengali Kingdom.

1857: Rebellion : reaction to British rule over princely states. (British East India Company Kept subsuming states)

Reaction to this is that the crown replaced the East India Company as the custodian of these states.

Russian Empire and British Expansion

Afghanistan remained as a buffer state.

Post WWI fight for Independence. (India wanted recognition after fighting)

British concern was paramount in and around borders

Maharaj's Prince's were giving leeway in what countries they would join, The Maharaj of Kashmir was torn (would've preferred to be an independent state) Countered by both Pakistan and India.

1947 Pakistan sends in irregulars, training them to overrun Kashmir militarilyMaharaj intends to Join Jammu and Kashmir to India. First war between India and Pakistan. (Indian sends in military) Ultimately agree to a cease fire line. (Line of Control)

Pakistan is determined to gain the territory. Fight again 1965. Pakistan starts sending in militants to try to convince the Kashmiri to rise up again India (Islam majority) India finds out and sends its army across the border and in to Pakistan. Indo-Pakistan war 1965 5 weeks

3-4 thousand killed on each side

REGIONAL/INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION

Results

Both countries take territory from each other.

Both countries run out of ammunition. (US embargo)

China India and Pakistani (Trilateral ownership), Indus Water Treaty, (River Navigation, Power Generation) Out of state sponsoring of Terrorists, Arms smuggling. Mutual Indian and Pakistani accusation of "illegal" ownership and disputed territory.

Terrorism, and Ex-State Sponsors (Politically, Arms etc)

EUROPEAN SETTLEMENTS IN INDIA

From 1501 - 1739

MAP OF THE INDIAN EMPIRE

REGIONAL MAP/ TIMELINE

HUMAN RIGHTS AND CIVIL LIBERTIES

The human rights record of the Indian security forces in Kashmir characterized by arbitrary arrests, torture, rape and extrajudicial killings. These have been extensively documented by human rights organizations such as Human Rights Watch and the PUCL (Union for Civil Liberties) and others. Most of these violations routinely go unchecked and unpunished, "justified" as unavoidable in a proxy war managed by Pakistan; only a handful cases have been brought to justice by due process. Often, New Delhi's response to the reports by various human rights organizations has been evasive.

2477 civilians had been killed by the Indian forces in the period 1990-1998 (PTI release, 13 September 1998), according to conservative estimates by official sources which mostly exclude thousands of custodial killings. In April 1997, the Minister of State for Home Affairs admitted that 454 persons were missing since 1990.

HUMAN RIGHTS CIVIL LIBERTIES CONT

Indian Perspective-India sought to suppress he resistance with a massive use of force killings hundreds of innocent men/women/ children in the year it began, 1989. The continued repression led Kashmir youth to militancy. Jihadi forces in the Region already in battle harness and looking for conflict helped out/ the resistance was not created "de novo"(new beginnings). More than 60,000 Kashmiris have been killed since 1989 directly at the hands of over 600,000 Indian troops or in hostilities undertaken on their behalf by the state security apparatus and renegade militias. Thousands lie in jail subject to torture, and custodial deaths. Frequent reports fo gang rapes of women by Indians\ forces. Deliberate burning down of entire local villages. A number of laws dating back to the 70's have been restricted-Public Safety Act 1979/Terrorist and Disruptive Activities Act 1987/ Armed Forces special Powers Act 1990. Its Judicial System has become utterly dysfunctional

ACTORS

Pakistan – state government

India – state government

Kashmir – regional government

UK - during partition/accession, the UK brokered separation of India and Pakistan (Indian Independence Act)

China - shared border

Islamist groups - Muslim cause (Afghanistan)

UN – UN Security Council resolutions supporting a plebiscite to determine disposition of Kashmir

World Bank – Indus Water Treaty

US - war on terror

British East India Company –historical legacy

SECURITY Training was provided in

Afghanistan in Al-Qaeda training

camps

- 9/11 Terrorist attacks were linked

to Taliban soldiers, which were

founded and supported by Pakistan

- Pakistan openly admitted

supported these terrorist factions

- Taliban forces turned on Kashmir

later on in 2001, and attacked state

parliaments in Kashmir, along with

Indian central parliament, in New

Delhi

On the surface, a peace process

and a cease-fire order is in the

works to reduce tensions, however

conflicts between ownership rights

to Kashmir cause great security

concerns for both countries

Pakistan's take on the issue with India regarding Kashmir:

o Accession to Kashmir by India was illegal

o India is in illegal possession of Kashmir

- This continual issue allows Pakistan to legitimize is role in aiding and funding the Pakistan military and intelligence forces. It also allows them to fund Kashmiri terrorist that hide out in the Kashmir Valley

India argues that Pakistan is illegally in possession of certain territories within Kashmir and that is the reason for India’s Aggression

- Kashmir is central to India’s security for several reasons:

o Cross-Border terrorism between Jammu and Kashmir into India, funded and enforced by Pakistan is the cause of much of the tension

o Heightened security concerns because both countries are in possess of nuclear arms

o Part of Kashmir under control of Pakistan has been surrendered to China, making this conflict a trilateral issue.

o Beijing launched an attack on India in 1962, disputes between the regions and countries still exist

o Security issues regarding natural resources, including water, power and navigation projects and theft of such resources or attacks on by terrorists are reason for concern