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  • ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Geneva, Fillmore County, and the Surrounding Area

    May 2018

    Prepared by: Ken Lemke, Ph.D. Nebraska Public Power District

    Economic Development Department PO Box 499, 1414 15th Street

    Columbus, NE 68602-0499 (402) 563-5535

    kmlemke@nppd.com

    Available Online @ sites.nppd.com

    A63

  • Economic and Demographic Trends in Geneva, Fillmore County, and the Surrounding Area

    This study provides data on labor force, employment, commuting patterns, population, migration, retail sales, and income for Fillmore County. For select measures, comparable data are provided for the surrounding area (selected counties and communities). The map featured above shows the general area for which selected comparable data are shown. In addition to Fillmore County, other counties included in this area are Clay, Hamilton, Jefferson, Nuckolls, Saline, Seward, Thayer, and York. The retail sales section also compares retail growth between Geneva and eight other similarly sized Nebraska communities. Labor Force and Employment Table 1 and Charts 1−5 (next pages) present nonfarm wage and salary data for Fillmore County for the period 2007−2016. Nonfarm employment is broken down into 11 sectors as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and which are compliant with the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). Nonfarm wage and salary employment consists of the following 11 sectors: • Natural Resources & Mining • Construction • Manufacturing • Trade, Transportation & Utilities • Information • Financial Activities

    • Professional & Business Services • Education & Health Services • Leisure & Hospitality • Other Services (except Public) • Government

    Hamilton

    Clay

    Nuckolls

    York

    Thayer

    Fillmore

    Seward

    Saline

    Jefferson

    Geneva

  • Page 2

    The measure of employment reported in Table 1 (below) is data on the number of people employed in the nonfarm wage and salary sector in Fillmore County (regardless of their county of residence). These data indicate total nonfarm wage and salary employment in Fillmore County decreased 1.3 percent (28 jobs) between 2007 and 2016. Table 1 also provides employment data for Fillmore County by major economic sector for years 2007−2016. The Trade, Transportation & Utilities sector recorded the largest percentage increase in employment between 2007 and 2016 (14.3 percent or 59 jobs). The Trade, Transportation & Utilities sector recorded the largest actual employment increase between 2007 and 2016 (59 jobs or 14.3 percent).

    Chart 1 (next page) compares total nonfarm wage and salary employment growth in Fillmore County with metropolitan, non-metropolitan, and Nebraska as a whole for the review period 2007−2016. Non-metropolitan Nebraska is defined as Nebraska minus the seven Lincoln and Omaha metropolitan counties of Cass, Douglas, Lancaster, Sarpy, Saunders, Seward, and Washington.

    % Change # Change 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2007-2016 2007-2016

    Nonfarm Employment (W&S) 2,204 2,231 2,169 2,140 2,207 2,228 2,236 2,250 2,215 2,176 -1.3 -28 Total Private Industries 1,502 1,530 1,471 1,426 1,482 1,512 1,519 1,519 1,490 1,456 -3.1 -46 Goods Producing 509 537 475 471 528 528 513 503 486 484 -4.9 -25 Natural Resources & Mining 106 114 109 102 118 112 115 123 122 113 6.6 7 Construction 241 240 195 194 210 212 205 204 200 196 -18.7 -45 Manufacturing 162 183 171 175 199 205 194 176 165 176 8.6 14 Service Providing 993 993 996 955 954 984 1,006 1,016 1,004 972 -2.1 -21 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 412 429 457 426 438 441 458 465 471 471 14.3 59 Information 9 (D) (D) 10 9 9 9 (D) (D) 9 0.0 0 Financial Activities 137 139 133 132 131 132 135 139 137 135 -1.5 -2 Professional & Business Services 32 (D) (D) 35 38 35 33 (D) (D) 41 28.1 9 Education & Health Services 181 179 177 176 179 188 206 207 190 183 1.1 2 Leisure & Hospitality 144 127 119 109 96 91 88 83 78 58 -59.7 -86 Other Services, except Public 78 76 65 66 63 89 78 77 79 75 -3.8 -3 Government 702 701 698 714 725 716 717 731 725 720 2.6 18 Federal 41 41 40 39 35 35 33 31 26 26 -36.6 -15 State 130 124 122 120 (D) (D) 127 127 121 113 (N/A) (N/A) Local 532 536 535 555 (D) (D) 556 573 579 581 9.2 49

    Estimated value provided by Ken Lemke, Economist, NPPD (D) Data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual reporting units (N/A) Data not available Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Annual Data, released June 2017 Source: Labor Force & Work Force Summary, 2007-2016, Annually, Fillmore County (March 2018 data)

    Nonfarm Wage & Salary Employment Trends, Fillmore County, Nebraska Selected Years: 2007─2016

    Table 1

  • Page 3

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    Manufacturing (W&S) Employment, Fillmore County, Nebraska, Metro, and Non-Metro Nebraska, 2007-2016

    (Index, 2007=100)

    Fillmore County

    Non-Metro

    Nebraska

    Metro Area

    +8.6%

    -3.3% -4.2% -5.4%

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW), Released June 2017

    As this chart indicates, total nonfarm wage and salary employment in Fillmore County decreased 1.3 percent (28 jobs) from 2007 to 2016, compared to a 5.7 percent increase for Nebraska as a whole, a 7.5 percent increase in metropolitan Nebraska, and a 2.9 percent increase in non-metropolitan Nebraska.

    Chart 2 presents data on manufacturing wage and salary employment growth for Fillmore County, Nebraska, metropolitan, and non-metropolitan areas. The Manufacturing sector for Fillmore County recorded an 8.6 percent increase in employment (14 jobs) between 2007 and 2016. This compares to a 3.3 percent decrease in employment for non-metropolitan Nebraska; a 4.2 percent decrease for Nebraska as a whole; and a 5.4 percent decrease for metropolitan Nebraska over the same period.

    95

    100

    105

    110

    Nonfarm (W&S) Employment, Fillmore County, Nebraska, Metro, and Non-Metro Nebraska, 2007─2016

    (Index, 2007=100)

    Metro Area

    Nebraska

    Non-Metro

    Fillmore County

    +7.9%

    +5.7%

    +2.9%

    -1.3%

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW), Released June 2017

    Chart 2

    Chart 1

  • Page 4

    Government 33.1%

    5.2%

    9.0% 8.1%

    21.6%

    0.4% 6.2%

    1.9% 8.4%

    2.7%

    3.4%

    Nonfarm Wage & Salary Employment by Major Economic Sector Fillmore County, 2016

    Government Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services

    Government 14.8% 0.3%

    5.4%

    6.8%

    19.0%

    2.4%

    8.3%

    15.1%

    15.1%

    10.2%

    2.6% Metro Area W&S Employment, 2016

    Government 19.6%

    3.6%

    4.9%

    15.2%

    21.4%

    1.1%

    4.2%

    7.3%

    12.3%

    8.0%

    2.5%

    Non-Metro Area W&S Employment, 2016

    Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

    The next series of pie charts (Charts 3, 4 & 5) display the distribution of nonfarm wage and salary (W&S) employment by major economic sector in Fillmore County compared to the non-metropolitan and metropolitan distributions. When comparing the Fillmore County employment sectors to non-metropolitan Nebraska, the largest deviation occurs in the Government sector which makes up 33.1 percent of the county workforce (720 employees) compared to 19.6 percent for non-metropolitan Nebraska; a difference of 13.5 percent. Comparing Fillmore County to the overall metropolitan distribution, the largest deviation is also found in the Government sector (33.1 percent Fillmore County vs. 14.8 percent metropolitan Nebraska; a difference of 18.3 percent).

    Charts 3, 4, 5

    Totals may not sum 100% due to rounding.

  • Page 5

    % Change # Change 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2007-2016 2007-2016

    Labor Force 3,173 3,180 3,198 3,240 3,324 3,320 3,306 3,244 3,211 3,154 -0.6 -19 Employment 3,093 3,086 3,068 3,119 3,209 3,212 3,206 3,166 3,115 3,062 -1.0 -31 Unemployment

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