economic growth as the limiting factor for wildlife conservation including considerations of...
TRANSCRIPT
Economic Growth as the Limiting Factor
for Wildlife Conservation
Including Considerations of
Technological Progress
Compliments of Brian CzechBased largely on:
Czech, B. 2000. Shoveling Fuel For A Runaway Train: Errant Economists, Shameful Spenders, And A Plan To Stop Them All. University of California Press, Berkeley.
Czech, B., and P. R. Krausman. 2001. The Endangered Species Act: History, Conservation Biology, and Public Policy. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD.
Czech, B. 2000. Economic growth as the limiting factor for wildlife conservation. Wildlife Society Bulletin 28(1):4-14.
Czech, B., P. R. Krausman, and P. K. Devers. 2000. Economic associations among causes of species endangerment in the United States. BioScience 50(7):593-601.
Czech, B. Economic growth, technological progress, and biodiversity conservation. Under Review.
Economic Growth
• an increase in the production and
consumption of goods and services
• typically expressed in terms of GDP
• facilitated by increasing:
–population
–per capita consumption
The Theoretical Framework
Time
GN
PK
Natural capital allocated to human economy
Natural capital allocated to wildlife
Czech, B. 2000. Economic growth as the limiting factor for wildlife conservation. Wildlife Society Bulletin 28(1):4-14.
PDF files for these articles available at The Wildlife Society website: www.wildlife.org. (Follow links to Wildlife Society Bulletin.)
Some Empirical Evidence:
Causes of Species Endangerment
as a “Who’s Who”
of the American Economy
Endangerment CausesUrbanization
Agriculture
Water diversions (e.g., reservoirs)
Recreation, tourism development
Pollution
Domestic livestock, ranching
247
205
160
148
143
136
Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601.
Causes (cont.)Mineral, gas, oil extraction
Non-native species
Harvest
Modified fire regimes
Road construction/maintenance
Industrial development
134
115
101
83
83
81
Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601.
Making sense of the Who’s Who with
Trophic Theory
Basic Population Dynamics
K
Carrying Capacity ScenariosIn
divi
dual
s
Time
r-selection
K-selection
K and r-selected Species
K
Economic Carrying CapacityG
NP
Time
r-selection
K-selection
K and r-selected Economies
American GNP, 1929-1997
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
K or r-selected?
But, for the sake of wildlife conservation, it’s not
enough to hope we’re a
K-selected economy.
K
Wildlife Conservation andSteady State Economy
GN
P
Time
...maintain steady state economy sufficiently below K.
To conserve wildlife...
But what about
Technological
Progress?
Technological Progress
•Vernacular: invention, innovation
•Technical: increasing productive
efficiency resulting from invention
and innovation
KTGNP
Natural capital allocated to human economy
Natural capital allocated to non-human economy
X natural capital allocable
Time
KU
Natural Capital Allocation Revisited
X/2 conserved K1
K2
GNP
Time
X natural capital remains allocable KU
Economic growth with technology level 2
Economic growth with technology level 1
The Big Hope
The Great Debate: Is There a Limit?
“Yes”• Physiocrats
• Classical economists
• Ecological economists
• Ecologists
“No”• Neoclassical
economists
• Corporations
• Politicians
Why would there not be a limit?
• Substitutability of resources
• Increasing productive efficiency
• Increasing human capital
White Pine, “Big Wheel”
Substituting for white pine,
employing more efficient
technology.
Sitka Spruce,Timbco 435 “Feller Buncher”
Why would there be a limit?
• Carrying capacity
• Thermodynamics
• Trophic levels
Carrying Capacity
• Consumers
• Products
• Byproducts
Thermodynamics
• Fixed amount of matter
• Entropy
• Fixed amount of energy
Another look at trophic
levels, this time in light of
thermodynamics.
Clear to All
• Without technological progress,
GNP limited
• GNP growth faster than
technological progress = trouble
Unclear to Many
• Technological progress: raising the
bar or accelerating the approach?
• Does technological progress occur
without increased consumption?
Consider the Sources
• Research and development
• Corporate profit
• Economies of scale
KTGNP
Natural capital allocated to human economy
Natural capital allocated to non-human economy
X natural capital allocable
Time
KU
One More Look at Allocation
X/2 conserved K1
K2
GNP
Time
X natural capital remains allocableKU
Economic growth with technology level 2
Economic growth with technology level 1
Remember the Big Hope?
K1
K2
GNP
Time
X/2 natural capital allocable KU
X/2 converted
Economic growth with technology level 2
Economic growth with technology level 1
The Apparent Reality
Red Herring Alert!
Red Herring Alert!
Red Herring Alert!
The “Information” Economy
But just ask 2 questions:• What is the information
used for?
• How does one come to
afford the information?
To say that an economy may grow perpetually on a finite land mass is to say that a stable economy may occupy a perpetually diminishing land mass!
Fallacy Buster
=$
$
$$
Real Questions
• What is the limit?
• How do we know when we’re approaching the limit?
• What do we do to prevent breaching the limit?
And yet we hear:“Some people just don’t get it. There is
no conflict between economic growth
and environmental protection!”
Why do they persist?
(As described by Brian Czech in Shoveling Fuel for a Runaway Train: Errant Economists, Shameful Spenders, and a Plan to Stop Them All. Published by University of California Press, 2000)