NCARisfundedbytheNationalScienceFoundation

EconomicImpactsofClimateChangeonAgriculture:IntegratingiPETS andCLM

Xiaolin Ren,MatthiasWeitzel,BrianO’Neill,PeterLawrence,Prasanth Meiyappan,SamLevis,EdBalistreriandMikeDalton

CESMTutorialAug16,2017

BRACE(BenefitsofReducedAnthropogenicClimatechangE)

Project• KeyQuestion:WhatimpactsareavoidedbyreducingclimatechangefromRCP8.5to4.5?

• Morethan50authorsfrom18institutions• 18impactstudies:Agriculture,Extremes,Health,andTropicalcyclones

• SpecialissueofClimaticChange

Whatisintegratedassessmentmodeling?

Areasoffocus:DevelopmentPathwayIAM– EarthSystemModelinteractionsUncertainty

IntegratedPopulation-Economy-Technology-Science(iPETS)Model:9-Regions,withTrade

TransitionCountries

OtherIndust.Countries

OtherDevel.CountriesSub-Sah.

Africa

USA

LatinAmerica

EU-27+

China

India

ExternalCollaborators: M.Dalton(NOAA);A.Jain(U.Illinois);R.Fuchs,S.Pachauri (IIASA);E.Balistreri (Col.SchoolofMines)

Communityorientation: Codefreelyavailable

Modelstructureandcomponents

FinalGoods

Energy

Materials

CO2 Emissions

Consumption, Investment,Government, Exports/

Imports

Final Goods Producers

Consumption & SavingsCapital & Labor

Households

Oil, Gas, Coal, ElectricityRefined Fuels,

Intermediate Goods Producers

Land Use Distribution: cropland, forestland

and pasture

LaborCapital

LandLaborCapital

Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Products, and Materials

Land

iPETS

Inputs OutputsiPETSModel

Totaleconomicoutput(GDP)

Quantities ofgoodsproducedandconsumed(energy,food)

Prices ofgoods(energy,food)

Aggregatelanduse(cropland,pasture)

CO2 emissionsfromenergyuse

Economicinitialconditions(region,sector)

Projectedpopulation

Technologicalprogress:projectedproductivityofland,energy,labor

Policies (carbontax,emissionspermits,subsidies,etc.)

ClimateImpact

onCropGrowthCESM

CLM

Cropmap

Aggregatedyieldchange

Aggregatedlanduse

DownscalingModel

CESM

CropYieldTool1

1

2

Etc.

iPETSRCP8.5

CLMYieldDatabase

iPETSBaselineScenarioSSP5,Noclimatechange

CLM

3

IdealizedCLMRuns

Climate CO2fertilization Nfertilizer Irrigation

RCP4.5

w/w/

IrrigatedRainfed

w/oIrrigatedRainfed

w/ow/

IrrigatedRainfed

w/oIrrigatedRainfed

RCP8.5

w/w/

IrrigatedRainfed

w/oIrrigatedRainfed

w/ow/

IrrigatedRainfed

w/oIrrigatedRainfed

1

Forallcropsinallgridcells8CLMruns16scenarios

ClimateImpactonYieldRelativetoBaseline:InputstoiPETS (RCP8.5)

2

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

China

EU

India

LatinAmerica

OtherDevelopingCountries

OtherIndust.Countries

Sub-Sah.Africa

TransitionCountries

USA

ClimateImpactonEconomicIndicators%Changesvs.Baselinein2061-2080

3

Input

ClimateImpactonMarket ResponseClimateImpactonLandUseChangeClimateImpactonGDP

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

CLMyieldChange-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

CropProduction CropConsumption CropPrice

China EUIndia LatinAmericaOtherDevelopingCountries OtherIndust.CountriesSub-Sah.Africa TransitionCountries

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

CropLand Pasture

China EUIndia LatinAmericaOtherDevelopingCountries OtherIndust.CountriesSub-Sah.Africa TransitionCountries

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

GDP

China EUIndia LatinAmericaOtherDevelopingCountries OtherIndust.CountriesSub-Sah.Africa TransitionCountries

EffectofCO2fertilization

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Crop Production Crop Consumption Crop PriceGDP PastureCropLandYield Food Consumption

Climate

Climate + CO2 fertilization

FutureWork

• Improveandunderstandindividualcomponents– climateimpactoncropyieldsinCLM

– yieldimpactoneconomyiniPETS

– spatiallandallocationmodel

• Incorporateyieldeffectsonpasture,forestry• Considerincorporationofadditionalyieldimpactsfromextremes

• Consideruncertainties

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Crop Production Crop Consumption

Crop Price

GDP

Pasture

CropLandYield Food Consumption

Mitigation

Climate

(RCP4.5– RCP8.5)/RCP8.5in2061-2080

AvoidedImpactw/CO2 fertilization

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Crop Production Crop Consumption

Crop Price

GDP

Pasture

CropLandYield Food Consumption

AvoidedImpactw/oCO2 fertilization

(RCP4.5– RCP8.5)/RCP8.5in2061-2080

Mitigation

Climate