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May 2016

Economic Indicators

2 Roland Berger Economic Indicators May 2016 External version.pptx

Overview

Economic Indicators A publication that provides you with the most important macroeconomic facts and figures. The presentation is updated regularly.

Sources We screen the insights of the most important economic research institutes, think tanks and corporate research units around the world. These include IMF, OECD, WTO, Consensus as well as databases such as Bloomberg and Oxford Economics.

Use it For your own presentations, for discussion with clients/ business partners, etc.

Real economic indicators > Global growth remains modest – only slight recovery is

expected in 2017

> Commodity prices are rebounding, but still on a low level

> Inflation expectations further revised downward

Financial indicators > After significant losses in summer 2015 all indices are on a

recent rebound

> Evolution of interest rates reflect divergent growth in US and Europe – Euro surprisingly resilient

> Developed countries improved their fiscal balance

Other indicators > Weaker global economic climate reflects uncertainty about the

future economic development

> German consumer index climbing with a rise in income expectations – US consumer sentiment declining, but still on a high level

1

2

3

Key points


3

Global growth remains modest – Only slight recovery is expected in 2017

2. Financial indicators 3. Other indicators

Global real GDP growth [%] Real GDP growth in selected regions/countries [%]

Source: IMF

2015 2009

0.0

2011

3.4

2010

4.2

3.1

2008

5.4

2016

3.2

2014

3.1 3.4

2013

3.3

2012

3.5

2017p

2016

World

2014 2015

3.1

Advanced economies 1.9 (-0.3)

US 2.4 2.4 (-0.4)

Eurozone 1.6 0.9 (-0.1)

Germany 1.5 1.6 (-0.1)

France 1.1 0.2 (-0.4)

Japan 0.5 0.0 (-0.5)

Emerging/dev. economies 4.0 (-0.4)

China 6.9 7.3 (0.2)

Russia -3.7 0.7 (-1.2)

(-0.4)

Spain 3.2 1.4 (0.1)

(change in forecast)1)

Italy 0.8 -0.3 (-0.3)

1) Change related to previous forecast (October 2015) indicates instability of the forecast

1. Real economic indicators

2017p

3.2

1.9 (-0.3)

2.4 (-0.3)

1.5 (0.0)

1.5 (0.1)

1.1 (-0.4)

0.5 (-0.5)

4.1 (-0.3)

6.5 (0.2)

-1.8 (-0.2)

(-0.3)

2.6 (0.0)

1.0 (0.0)

3.4

1.8

4.6


3.5

2.0

2.5

1.6

1.6

1.3

-0.1

4.6

6.2

0.8

2.3

1.2


4

Significant growth spread among the BRICs – Growth in ASEAN-5 to pick up further in 2017 underpinned by strong domestic demand

2015

Brazil

Russia

India

China

-3.7

6.9

0.8

2016 2015 2017p 2016 2015 2017p

Bangladesh

Egypt

Iran

Mexico

Nigeria

Pakistan

6.4

4.2

0.0

2.5

4.2

South Korea

Turkey

2.6

3.8

6.9

4.3

3.7

2.6

4.7

2.9

3.4

6.6

3.3

4.0

2.4

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

4.8

5.0

5.8

2.8

6.7

5.3

4.8

6.2

3.2

6.2

4.9

4.4

6.0

3.0

6.3 Weighted avg.3) 5.5

Weighted avg.3) 3.6 4.2

Weighted avg.3)

2016 2015 2017p

Weighted avg.3) 3.7 3.6 3.5

6.2

Real GDP growth [%]

-3.8

7.3

2.7 3.5

2. Financial indicators 3. Other indicators 1. Real economic indicators

Source: IMF

BRIC NEXT-112) ASEAN-5

MIST1)

6.5

4.5

2.7

3.8

3.9

2.3

2017p

5.0 4.8

7.5

2016

-3.8

-1.8

7.5

0.0

5.1 4.8 4.7

1) The MIST states include Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey 2) Except for the ASEAN-5 countries Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam. However the weighted average includes all countries of the aggregate Next 11, not only the ones listed 3) Average weighted via GDP in PPP current international dollar


66.8

53.0

112.4

97.8

122.9 125.9

87.4

57.4

75.2

61.8 46.4

Resilient supply, diverging opinions within OPEC and moderate global growth projections result in low oil price forecasts

Source: Bloomberg


Oil price (Brent) [USD/barrel]1) Forward curve and forecast2)

100.0

49.8

37.5

49.3

84.0

39.0

48.6

70.0

36.5

47.9

76.0

36.0

47.0

76.0

36.0

45.2

61.0

31.0

Jan 2006 May 2016 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Q2 16 Jan 2012 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17

Highest value Jul 2008

146.1 +18.5

Lowest value Jan 2016

27.9

-118.2

Q2 17 Q3 17 Jan 2014

1) All values (except highest, lowest and latest) are end-of-month based; highest and lowest values are on a daily basis, latest for May 3rd 2016 2) The blue dashed lines indicate a forecast range of highest and lowest values; the black dashed line is the forward curve


1,293.0

1,061.4

1,327.3

1,234.6

1,179.6

724.6

974.2

6

Gold price reflects perceived increase in macro risks, general commodities price index finally rebounding, but still on a low level

Highest value Sep 2011


-607.1 1,900.1

516.9

88.6

+1,383


-554.1

Jan 2008 Jan 2006 Jan 2010 Apr 2016 Jan 2012 Jan 2008 Jan 2006 Apr 2016

360.4

445.6

658.6

703.5

591.0

758.8

336.2

599.3

453.9

549.9

Gold price [USD per ounce]1) S&P GSCI [Index value]1) 2)


Source: Bloomberg

Jan 2014 Jan 2014

271.8

Jan 2010


Jan 2012

890.3

1) All values (except highest, lowest and latest) are end-of-month based, highest and lowest values are on a daily basis, latest for Apr 29th 2016 2) S&P GSCI (formerly Goldman Sachs Commodity Index): serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time


50.5

53.2

48.6

51.3 52.9

49.1

182.5

165.6

146.6 143.0

148.9 146.6

139.3

180.7


In US, housing market has stabilized at a higher level – Growth of global industry near stagnation, highlighting its current fragility

-72.4

Lowest value Dec 2008

Highest value Feb 2011

-6.9

34.3

54.6

+23.1

+48.4

Jan 2008 Jan 2006 Jan 2010 Mar 2016 Jan 2012 Jan 2008 Jan 2006 Jan 2010 Mar 2016 Jan 2012

206.5


Case Shiller Index [Index]1) 3) JPM Global Manufacturing PMI [Index]2) 3)

Source: Bloomberg

Jan 2014 Jan 2014

202.0

57.4

Lowest value Feb 2012

134.1

1) Measure for the US residential housing market 2) JP Morgan Index based on surveys covering purchasing executives in 30 countries accounting for 86% of global manufacturing output; 50 = no change on prev. month 3) All values (except highest, lowest and latest) are end-of-month based; highest and lowest values are on a daily basis, latest for March 31st 2016


8

Low prices for energy and modest growth rates led to a downward revision of the already low inflation expectations

Source: IMF

3.2

2013

3.7

2012

4.1

2011

5.2

2010

3.9

2009

2.8

2015 2014 2017p

3.0

2016

2.8 2.8

2008

6.4

US

Eurozone

Germany

Italy

Japan

China

Russia

0.8

0.4

0.5

-0.2

1.8

8.4

Advanced economies

1.5

1.1

1.4

0.7

1.2

2.0

6.5

World

Spain 1.0

(-0.3)

(-0.7)

(-0.7)

(-0.6)

(0.0)

(-0.3)

(-0.3)

(-0.1)

(-0.1)

(-0.3)

(-0.3)

(-0.2)

(-0.7)

(0.1)

France 1.1 (0.0)

Emerging/dev. economies

1.6

0.4

0.8

2.7

3.2

2.0

7.8

4.7

0.4 (-0.6) 0.6

0.2

-0.4

(-0.5)

(-1.3)

0.2

-0.2

0.7 1.5 (-0.5) (-0.3) 1.4

Global inflation1) [%] Inflation in selected countries1) [%]

2017p 2015 2014 2016 (change in forecast)2)



1) Annual change in average consumer prices 2) Change from previous forecast (October 2015) indicates instability of the forecast

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.8

1.4

15.5

0.1

0.1

-0.5

0.3

2.8 3.0 ( -0.6) (-0.5) 2.8

4.5 4.2 (-0.6) (-0.7) 4.7


2009

9.3

9.6

2008

5.8

7.6

9.9

2016

4.9

10.3

2015

5.3

10.9

2014

6.2

11.6

2013 2017p

4.8

7.4

12.0

2012

8.1

11.3

2011

8.9

10.1

2010

9.6

10.1

US

Eurozone

9

Unemployment rates are falling, but remain on a high level in Europe – Germany as the exception

Source: IMF

US

Eurozone

Germany

France

Japan 3.6 3.3

Advanced economies 7.3 6.3 6.2

3.3

Spain

China

Russia

4.1 4.1

5.2 6.5

4.1

6.3

1) Change from previous forecast (October 2015) indicates instability of the forecast

(-0.3)

(-0.4)

(0.0)

(0.0)

(-0.1)

(-0.3)

(0.0)

(0.3)

Italy

4.9 4.8 (-0.3) (0.0) 6.2

11.6

5.0 4.6 4.8 (-0.2) (0.1)

10.3 10.1 10.0 (0.1) (0.4)

12.7 11.4 10.9 (-0.9) (-0.7)

24.5 19.7 18.3 (-1.4) (-0.4)


Unemployment rate [%] Unemployment rate [%]

2017p 2015 2016 (change in forecast)1)


3.4

6.7

4.1

5.6

5.3

4.6

10.4

11.9

22.1

10.3 9.9 (-0.3) (-0.2) 10.9

2014


2,993

2,688

4,612

3,235

2,048

3,412

1,871

11,382

9,495

5,502

7,376

8,067

9,927

12,811

10,913

16,285

13,930

17,751

+11,765

After significant losses in summer 2015 all indices are on a recent rebound

Jan 2006 May 2016

Highest value May 2015

Highest value Apr 2015

Jan 2006

Highest value Oct 2007

Jan 2006

+8,709

+4,834 -3,099

1,258

May 2016 May 2016

1) All values (except highest, lowest and latest) are end-of-month based; highest and lowest values are on a daily basis, latest for May 3rd 2016

Lowest value Mar 2009 3,666

10,865


Dow Jones [Index value]1) DAX [Index value]1) Shanghai Composite [Index value]1)

Source: Bloomberg

5,674

-561 -2,448

6,092 12,375

-2,008 -4,318


18,312



18,262

11,090

16,147

8,928

3,013

2,119

3,011

3,697

Highest value Jun 2007

Euro Stoxx, Nikkei and CAC 40 also rebounding, but volatile and with an overall downward trend

1) All values (except highest, lowest and latest) are end-of-month based; highest and lowest values are on a daily basis, latest for May 2nd/3rd 2016

+1,234

+13,813 +1,903

Jan 2006 May 2016 Jan 2006 May 2016

-2,780

Jan 2006

6,168 Highest value Jun 2007

3,692

Highest value June 2015

4,948

-3,649

May 2016

4,557


EURO STOXX [Index value]1) Nikkei [Index value]1) CAC 40 [Index value]1)

Source: Bloomberg



20,868

-4,721

-9,595

+1,220

+865 5,083

3,017

4,110

4,423



1.16

1.25

1.39

1.23

1.45

1.50

1.18

0.00

0.50 0.25

0.15

1.50

1.00

0.25

2.00

4.25

2.00

5.25

4.50

2.25

Evolution of interest rates reflect divergent growth in US and Europe – Euro surprisingly resilient

Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank

Highest value Apr 2008

Lowest value Mar 2015 1.05

1.60

Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 May 2016 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 May 2016

Fed

0.00

1.25

Q1 2017

0.95

1.20

1.17

0.95

1.20

1.16

1.00

1.18

1.16

1.05

1.17

1.15

Jan 2010

ECB

Jan 2012 Q2 2017 Jan 2012


Interest rates [%]1) EUR/USD exchange rate [EUR/USD]1) Forecast Forecast2)

1) All values (except highest, lowest and latest) are end-of-month based; highest and lowest values are on a daily basis, latest for May 2nd/3rd 2016

2) The blue dashed lines indicate a forecast range of highest and lowest values; the black dashed line is the forward curve

Jan 2014 Jan 2014

1.23


Bond yields at very low bounds – After some month of increased uncertainty, CDS index now slightly lower

May 2016 Jan 2008 May 2016 Jan 2011 Jan 2012

First 36 month LTRO2) announcement 21 Dec 2011

Greece 8.56

Portugal 3.08

Spain 1.57

Italy 1.47

France 0.62

Germany 0.27

China 2.92

Eurozone 54.1

US 69.7

Asia 56.8

Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2014


Yields of 10y government bonds [%]1) Credit default swaps [Index 01/11=100]1)

Source: Bloomberg

Jan 2015

1) All values (except latest) are end-of-month based; latest value is for May 3rd 2016 (China: Apr 29th 2016) 2) LTRO: Long Term Refinancing Operations. ECB lends money to eurozone banks at a very low interest rate


Fiscal balance [% of GDP]

-4.0

-2.5

-4.7 -3.9

0.9

-2.5

2005

-0.6

-3.7

2017p

-3.4

-4.6

-4.9

-3.9

2015 2013

-2.4

-5.2

2011

-1.6

-8.1

2009

-3.3

-9.9

2007

14

Developed countries improved their fiscal balance, now out-performing big emerging countries, but with budgets still in the red

Source: Oxford Economics, IMF

Avg. emerging1)

Avg.

developed1)

1) Weighted average (via GDP in PPP current international dollar) of all single countries listed in the table (emerging or developed)

EU-28

Eurozone

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Portugal

Spain

United Kingdom

United States

Developed economies

France

Brazil

China

India

Mexico

Russia

-3.0

-2.1

0.6

-4.0

-4.2

-2.6

-6.7

-4.2

-5.1

-4.4

-4.4

-3.8

-10.3

-3.1

-3.5

-3.5

-3.4

-2.4

0.2

-3.3

-3.0

-7.7

-4.5

-5.8

-5.7

-5.0

-3.9

-6.1

-1.4

-4.3

-3.2

-0.7

Emerging economies

-3.2

-0.1

-3.4

-1.6

-2.3

-7.3

-2.7

-3.9

-3.3

-4.2

-2.5

-1.9

-9.9

-4.9

-3.8

-3.1

-4.7


2015 2014 2016

-2.2

-0.4

-2.6

0.1

-2.5

-1.8

-5.6

-2.3

-2.8

-2.7

-4.1

-1.5

-9.5

-4.8

-3.1

-2.8

-4.6

2017p

-1.8

0.3


General government gross debt1) [% of GDP]

2015

104.8 102.7

46.5

2009

92.3

45.7

2007

72.1

38.9

2005

77.4

46.9 45.1

2013

104.9

39.4

2011 2017p

48.7

106.1

15

Overall, government debt is on the rise – Apart from very few exceptions there is no deleveraging

Emerging & developing economies

Developed economies 177.8

133.0

249.3

87.0

92.5

68.2

88.6

127.9

99.0

89.1

107.5

98.2

88.1

94.2

74.9

175.1

107.5

132.5

246.2

130.2

97.7

89.4

104.8

95.6

87.4

93.2

71.0

178.4

95.2

132.6

248.1

128.8

99.0

89.3

105.8

96.8

76.3

46.8

66.5

54.9

18.4

65.2

41.4

66.1

49.8

17.8

73.7

43.9

67.2

54.0

17.7

98.8

65.9

178.1

84.6

131.7

250.9

127.3

98.5

87.9

107.5

85.9

91.3

80.5

49.3

65.6

54.9

19.4

EU-28

Eurozone

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Portugal

Spain

United Kingdom

United States

France

Brazil

China

India

Mexico

Russia

Source: IMF, Oxford Economics

Developed economies

Emerging economies


1) Gross debt consists of all liabilities that require payments of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor in the future. No financial assets of a state, such as gold, currency reserves, loans and other accounts receivables are deducted.

2016 2014 2015 2017p


-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250

Russia

Mexico

India

China

Brazil

Eurozone EU-28

United States UK

Spain

Portugal

Japan

Italy

Ireland

Germany

France

16

Public debt of 60% of GDP mostly out of reach for developed countries, but fiscal deficit often near Maastricht criteria of -3 %

Fiscal deficit

Public debt – General government gross debt

Public finances 2016 – fiscal deficit and public debt [% of GDP]

Source: IMF, Oxford Economics


Former Maastricht criteria: max. 60%

Former Maastricht criteria: max. 3%


78.9

99.1

106.1

81.6

90.4

74.6

105.3

95.6

87.8

99.5

105.0

96.8

82.4

95.0

78.7

107.7 104.1

Weaker global economic climate reflects uncertainty about the future economic development – Recently slight recovery in Asia

Highest value Q3 2007

110.4

Source: Ifo Institute


Lowest value Q1 2009

105.0 105.0

Q1 2006 Q1 2008 Q1 2016 Q1 2010 Q1 2012

114.9 113.2

-64.2 +65.8

+37.1


50.7

-34.3


World economic climate1) [Index; 2005=100] Economic climate – Asia1) [Index; 2005=100]

1) Arithmetic mean of judgment about the present and expected economic situation

Q1 2014 Q1 2006 Q1 2008 Q1 2016 Q1 2010 Q1 2012 Q1 2014

+4.5

-57.6

47.4


106.6

108.2

103.2

111.2

100.1

109.8

108.4

113.6

106.4

85.4 88.7

95.4

69.5

104.6

82.8

58.6

103.8

North America's economic climate somewhat dampened – Mood in Germany's economy remains positive

46.0


110.5


Jan 2006 Jan 2008

Lowest value Dec 2008

Highest value Feb 2011

Jan 2010

84.6

Jan 2012 Apr 2016

115.4

-8.7

+30.8

105.4

+64.5


Economic climate – North America1)

[Index; 2005=100]

Economic climate – Germany2)

[Index; 2005=100]

Source: Ifo Institute

-25.1

106.3

1) Arithmetic mean of judgment about the present and expected economic situation 2) Business Climate Index for industry and trade

Q1 2006 Q1 2008 Q1 2016 Q1 2010 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Jan 2014

-59.4 -21.7


9.7

8.9

5.7

6.0

4.2

4.6

8.4

9.1

55.7

89.7

73.2

85.1 82.7

77.5

70.3

90.4

96.9

79.1

German consumer index climbing with a rise in income expec-tations – US consumer sentiment declining, but still on a high level

Source: GFK, University of Michigan

Highest value Jan 2015

Lowest value Nov 2008

91.2

4.0

Lowest value Sep 2008

Highest value June 2015

1.5 55.3

98.1 10.2

1) Indicates change in real private consumption compared to the year before divided by 10; value of 10 indicates consumption growth of 1%

Jan 2006 Jan 2008 May 2016 Jan 2010 Jan 2012

+8.7 +42.8


Consumer index – Germany1) [Indicator] Consumer sentiment – US [Index; 1966=100]

-0.5 -8.4

Jan 2014 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Apr 2016 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014

-2.5

-35.9


20

Contacts & selected resources for further reading

Klaus Fuest +49 (211) 4389-2231

[email protected]

Christian Krys +49 (211) 4389-2917

[email protected]

IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2016)

Link

Eurostat Data for short term economic analysis (April 2016) Link

OECD Global Economic Outlook (February 2016) Link

Contacts Further reading

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-statistical-books/-/KS-BJ-16-004

http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economicoutlook.htm

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