Economic Update

11/08/2010

3nd Quarter GDP: 2.0% (Initial Estimate)3nd Quarter GDP: 2.0% (Initial Estimate)

Video, Job Loss/Gain & GDP

Source: CNBC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Wall Street Journal

Video & Economic SummaryVideo & Economic Summary

GDP Release

GDP was 2.0% in the 2th quarter (initial estimate)

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Anticipating the jobs report (Nov 5, 2010) (5 min 40 sec) with Tig Gilliam, Adecco Group North America,Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics

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Tracking in Job Growth 2010

The United States needs to increase by ~125,000 jobs on average/month (on the Household survey) to keep the unemployment rate from decreasing (because the population of the United States typically increased by ~1.5 million workers every year due to population growth and immigration).

BLS Surveys(Monthly Jobs Growth/Loss)

Month Household Payroll Jan 541 14Feb 308 39March 264 208April 550 313May -35 432June -301 -175July -159 -66Aug 290 -1Sept 141 -41Oct -330 151 Total 1,269 874

Avg/Month 127 87

  2009 2010

 Components of GDP 1st 2nd 3rd 4th  1st 2nd 3rd

Consumers   

-0.34% -1.12% 1.41% 0.69% 1.33% 1.54% 1.79%(Personal Consumption)

*Businesses  

-6.80% -2.30% 1.22% 2.70% 3.04% 2.88% 1.54%(Gross Private Domestic Investment)

Net Exports                   (Exports-Imports) 2.88% 1.47% -1.37% 1.90% -0.31% -3.50% -2.01%

Government  -0.61% 1.24% 0.33% -0.28% -0.32% 0.80% 0.68%

Total GDP -4.90% -7.00% 1.60% 5.00% 3.70% 1.72% 2.00%

               *Inventories  

-1.09% -1.03% 1.10% 2.83% 2.64% 0.82% 1.44%component of Business

Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment

June 2009 Recession Officially EndedJuly 2009 Temp Penetration Trend Turns PositiveOct 2009 1st Job Growth >100,000 (Household Survey)Nov 2009 1st Job Growth (Payroll Survey)

Temp EmploymentTemporary help services gained 35,000 jobs.

Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important?“Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth.” American Staffing Association

US Employment SituationTemp Penetration Rate: 1.67% .03%Temp Penetration Rate: 1.67% .03%

Job LosesChange from

Previous Month

Government -8,000

Manufacturing -7,000

Leisure & Hospital ity -5,000

Financial Activit ies -1,000

Job GainsChange from

Previous Month

Professional & Business Services 46,000

Retai l Trade 27,900

Construction 5,000

Educat ion & Health Services 53,000

- Education 19,200

- Healthcare 24,100

- Social Assistance 9,900

Job Loss/Gain: +151,000 Jobs Job Loss/Gain: +151,000 Jobs Unemployment Rate: 9.6% no change Unemployment Rate: 9.6% no change

Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher

June July Aug Sept Oct4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association

Nonfarm Payroll – Job Growth Details Jobs Added/LostPrivate Sector 159,000 Government Sector -8,000 Census -5,000

Federal, State, Local -3,000

Total +151,000

End of the Census: There were only about 1,000 temporary census workers remaining on Federal Payrolls in October.

USA Today: One Year Forecast Change in Jobs (3rd Qtr 2011 vs. 3rd Qtr 2010)

USA Today: One Year Forecast Change in Jobs (3rd Qtr 2011 vs. 3rd Qtr 2010)

GDP ProjectionsSurvey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

GDP ProjectionsSurvey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

Unemployment Rate ProjectionsSurvey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

Unemployment Rate ProjectionsSurvey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

Projections

Source: Wall Street Journal, USA TodayPlease note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report

For Interactive Graph: Click Here