EDELMAN - UK ELECTION CAMPAIGN

RESEARCH6 MAY 2015

7 IN 10 VOTERS SAY THEY ARE MORE INTERESTED IN THIS ELECTION THAN THEY WERE IN 2010

2

INTEREST IN CURRENT ELECTION COMPARED TO 2010 ELECTION

q15: Compared to the 2010 election, are you more or less interested in the current election? Base: All Respondents (n=1,000)

7%

15%

46%

23%

10%

Much less interested A little less interested A little more interested Much more interested Don't know / Can'tremember

NET More Interested: 69%

8 IN 10 VOTERS SEE THE CAMPAIGN PERIOD AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR VOTERS TO LEARN MORE, YET OPINION IS DIVIDED ON THE CAMPAIGN PERIOD’S ABILITY TO EDUCATE VOTERS

3

AGREEMENT WITH CAMPAIGN PERIOD STATEMENTS

q6: Thinking about the election campaign period, to what extent do you agree with the following statements? [NET Disagree: Bottom 2 Box] [NET Agree: Top 2 Box]

Base: All Respondents (n=1,000)

16%

44%

44%

74%

81%

53%

52%

21%

3%

3%

4%

4%

The campaign period is an opportunity for voters to learn more about the country’s political parties and candidates

The campaign period doesn’t teach voters anything new about the political parties or the candidates

The campaign period is too long

The campaign period is not long enough to have ameaningful impact

NET Disagree NET Agree Don't know

OVER HALF OF PEOPLE SAID THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN HAS HAD NO IMPACT ON THEIR INTENTION TO VOTE IN THE UPCOMING ELECTION

4

IMPACT OF ELECTION CAMPAIGN ON LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING IN 2015 ELECTION

q17: Has what you’ve seen and heard during the election campaign made you more or less likely to vote in the general election? Base: All Respondents (n=1,000)

5% 6%

56%

11%

19%

3%

Much less likely A little less likely It has had noimpact

A little more likely Much more likely Not sure

NET More Likely to Vote

31%

NET Less Likely to Vote 11%

VOTERS ARE LOOKING FOR LESS NOISE FROM CELEBRITIES AND BOOKIES, AND MORE INFORMATION FROM POLITICAL LEADERS AND BUSINESS LEADERS

5

VOICES VOTERS WANT TO HEAR LESS AND MORE OF DURING THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN

53%

35%

34%

23%

20%

19%

16%

15%

11%

7%

5%

7%

16%

13%

21%

30%

15%

8%

Celebrities

Bookies

Religious groups

Trade unions

Columnists/journalists

Business leaders

Political leaders

Pollsters

NGOs

Hear less from… Hear more from…

q20: Which of these voices do you want to hear more of during the election campaign? Base: All Respondents (n=1,000)

q21: Which of these voices do you want to hear less of during the election campaign? Base: All Respondents (n=1,000)

THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN HAS NOT IMPACTED THE VOTING INTENTION OF THREE QUARTERS OF VOTERS

6q18: Has what you’ve heard or seen during the election campaign period changed who you intend to vote for? Base: All Respondents (n=1,000)

25%

69%

7%

Has what you’ve heard or seen during the election campaign period changed who you intend to vote

for?

Yes No Don’t know

HOWEVER VOTERS ACKNOWLEDGE THAT NEGATIVE MESSAGES HAVE PUT NEARLY HALF OFF A POLITICAL LEADER OR PARTY

7

IMPACT OF NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING ON VOTING FOR POLITICAL LEADER OR PARTY

q19: During this election campaign period, have you heard anything negative that has put you off voting for a political party or leader? Base: All Respondents

(n=1,000)

45%

48%

7%

A Leader

Yes No Don't know

45%

48%

7%

A Party

Yes No Don't know

TELEVISION NEWS IS SEEN AS MOST INFORMATIVE AND MOST TRUSTWORTHY BY VOTERS DURING THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN

8

MOST INFORMATIVE AND MOST TRUSTWORTHY SOURCES OF INFORMATION DURING ELECTION CAMPAIGN

76%

63%

54%

37%

36%

30%

28%

19%

18%

65%

59%

39%

47%

26%

24%

23%

19%

17%

Television news

Online news

Newspapers

Radio stations

Leaflets/flyers from political parties

Social media

Political parties’ websites

Email from political parties

BlogsInformative Trustworthy

q8: How informative did you find each of the following sources of information during this election campaign period? [Top 2 Box Informative] Base: All Respondents

(n=1,000)

q9: And how trustworthy did you find each of the following sources of information during this election campaign period? [Top 2 Box Trustworthy] Base: All Respondents

(n=1,000)

NEARLY A QUARTER OF VOTERS SAY THAT TELEVISION NEWS HAS CHANGED THEIR VOTING INTENTION

9

SOURCES WHICH HAVE CHANGED VOTING INTENTION DURING THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN

22%

17%

15%

13%

13%

12%

11%

8%

7%

Television news

Online news

Newspapers

Social media

Leaflets/flyers from political parties

Radio stations

Political parties’ websites

Blogs

Email from political parties

q10: Have any of the following sources of information changed the way you intend to vote in this election? Base: All Respondents (n=1,000)

BUT SOCIAL MEDIA IS EXERTING INCREASING INFLUENCE: 1 IN 3 UK VOTERS (32%) FOLLOWS A POLITICAL PARTY OR LEADER ON SOCIAL MEDIA

10

SOCIAL NETWORKS MOST USED BY VOTERS TO FOLLOW PARTIES OR LEADERS

q12: Which, if any, of the following social media networks do you use to follow political parties and/or leaders? Base: All Respondents (n=1,000)

24%

15%

11%

8%

3%

NB: Excludes “Something else” and “None of these” responses

LABOUR IS THE MOST FOLLOWED PARTY ACROSS ALL SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS

11q13: Which of the following political parties are you following on each of these social media networks? Base: Respondents who use each social media network to follow

political parties and/or leaders (Facebook n=240, Twitter n=154, YouTube n=110, Google+ n=76)

40%

30%

30%

22%

20%

18%

13%

9%

Labour

Conservative

UKIP

Liberal Democrats

SNP

Green

Plaid Cymru

Another party

Facebook Users

44%

29%

29%

25%

23%

18%

14%

8%

Labour

Conservative

UKIP

Green

Liberal Democrats

SNP

Plaid Cymru

Another party

Twitter Users

36%

35%

34%

25%

20%

19%

17%

13%

Labour

Conservative

UKIP

Liberal Democrats

SNP

Plaid Cymru

Green

Another party

YouTube Users

37%

29%

22%

22%

21%

20%

16%

17%

Labour

UKIP

Conservative

Liberal Democrats

Green

SNP

Plaid Cymru

Another party

Google+ Users

WHILE MILIBAND, CAMERON, AND FARAGE COMPETE FOR THE GREATEST SOCIAL MEDIA ATTENTION

12q14: And which of the following political leaders are you following on each of these social media networks? Base: Respondents who use each social media network to

follow political parties and/or leaders (Facebook n=240, Twitter n=154, YouTube n=110, Google+ n=76)

31%

24%

23%

20%

18%

17%

14%

14%

Ed Miliband

Nigel Farage

David Cameron

Boris Johnson

Nick Clegg

Nicola Sturgeon

Leanne Wood

Natalie Bennett

Facebook Users

34%

33%

28%

24%

23%

23%

19%

14%

Ed Miliband

David Cameron

Nigel Farage

Boris Johnson

Nick Clegg

Nicola Sturgeon

Natalie Bennett

Leanne Wood

Twitter Users

35%

33%

31%

25%

22%

20%

19%

14%

David Cameron

Nigel Farage

Ed Miliband

Nick Clegg

Nicola Sturgeon

Natalie Bennett

Boris Johnson

Leanne Wood

YouTube Users

34%

30%

30%

26%

24%

24%

22%

17%

Nigel Farage

David Cameron

Ed Miliband

Nick Clegg

Nicola Sturgeon

Leanne Wood

Boris Johnson

Natalie Bennett

Google+ Users

REGARDLESS HOW THE PARTIES FEEL, THE PUBLIC VALUES THE TELEVISION DEBATES

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6 IN 10 VOTERS WATCHED THE TELEVISED DEBATES, AND THE MAJORITY WHO WATCHED FOUND THEM USEFUL

58%

39%

3%

Did you watch any of the televised debates in

the run up to the election?

Yes No Don’t know / prefer not to say

q22: Now thinking specifically about the televised debates which have taken place during the election campaign. Did you watch any of the televised debates between

political candidates in the run up to this year’s general election? Base: All Respondents (n=1,000)

q23: In making your decision on who to vote for, how useful did you find the televised debates between political candidates? Base: Those who watched any of the

televised debates (n=584)

q26: Did the televised debates make you more or less likely to vote in the upcoming general election? Base: Those who watched any of the televised debates

(n=584)

74% found the debates

useful

Amongst those who watched the debates…

81% said the debates

made them more likely to vote in the

election

PARTIES CANNOT AFFORD TO ABSTAIN: THE DEBATES IMPACTED THE PERCEPTION OF HALF WHO WATCHED

14

OPINION OF ED MILIBAND WAS POLARISED, WHILE STURGEON GOT A BOOST AND CAMERON TOOK A HIT

26%

23%

50%

1%

Did the televised debate change your mind

about any of the political leaders?

Yes, it made me more positive about themYes, it made me more negative about themNo, it did not change my mindPrefer not to say

q24: Did the televised debates change your mind about any of the political leaders? Base: Those who watched any of the televised debates (n=584)

q25: Which leader or leaders did the debates change your mind about? Base: Yes, it made me more positive about them (n=150), Yes, it made me more negative about

them (n=132)

44%39%

29% 27% 23% 23% 19%

Ed Miliband NicolaSturgeon

NigelFarage

DavidCameron

Nick Clegg NatalieBennett

LeanneWood

Yes, it made me more positive about them

45%38% 36% 34%

25%20% 18%

Ed Miliband DavidCameron

NigelFarage

NicolaSturgeon

Nick Clegg NatalieBennett

LeanneWood

Yes, it made me more negative about them

50% 49% 48%44%

40%35%

26% 24%

44% 44%48%

42%39% 39%

35% 33%

Boris Johnson David Cameron Ed Miliband Nick Clegg Nigel Farage Nicola Sturgeon Natalie Bennett Leanne Wood

Jan-15 May-15

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MOST TRUSTED POLITICAL LEADERS: GIVE £10 BACK

Q16/Q29. We’d now like you to think about a hypothetical situation. Imagine that you were to lend each of the political leaders below £10. Please indicate how much

you trust the following political leaders to give you the £10 back. Please use the same nine-point scale where one means that you “do not trust them at all” and nine

means that you “trust them a great deal”. [Top 4 Box, Trust] Base: All respondents (n=1,000)

WHO DO VOTERS REALLY TRUST?TRUST IN JOHNSON AND CAMERON TO GIVE BACK £10 HAS DROPPED, WHILE LESSER KNOWN CANDIDATES HAVE SEEN A BOOST IN TRUST

Copyright ©2015 Daniel J. Edelman, Inc. All rights reserved.

All information contained herein is confidential and proprietary to Daniel J. Edelman, Inc. (“Edelman”).

THANK YOU

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WHO WE SPOKE TO• 1,000 UK Adults aged 18+ who are legally allowed

to vote in the general election

• 5 minute online questionnaire

• Fieldwork was conducted between 1-3 May, 2015