effects from this winters el niño
TRANSCRIPT
Effects from This
Winter’s El Niño
Paul Yura
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX
122 NWS Offices
NWS Austin/San Antonio
“County Warning Area”
Forecasts
Watches/Warnings
Decision Support
Local Research
Outreach
Wet
Dry14.99 14.88
Is Drought Unexpected?
El Niño
La Niña
Neutral
(Wet - Fall thru Spring)
(Dry - Fall thru Spring)
Forecasts from Fall 2014…Weak El Niño
(ENSO) El Niño…Rainy Fall/Winter
(ENSO) La Niña…Dry Fall/Winter
Three Month Rain Outlook…Dec-Feb
Three Month Temp Outlook…Dec-Feb
“Effects from
This Winter’s
El Niño”
Problem?
Are we in El Niño?
Current Pacific Ocean Anomalies
El Niño – Warmer than normal La Niña – Colder than normal
Monitoring the Pacific Ocean Temperatures
TAO Array - 70 Buoys
Satellite
Hot off the Press…We are in El Niño!
Announced Today…El Niño Advisory (Weak Event)
El Niño
La Niña
Neutral
(Wet - Fall thru Spring)
(Dry - Fall thru Spring)
Forecast…Weak El Niño Continues…
Drought Monitor Map – Fall 2011
March 3 2015Nov 25 2015
Improvement?
Observed Rainfall…Last 180 Days
Percent of Normal…Last 180 Days
Observed Rainfall…Last 90 Days
Percent of Normal…Last 90 Days
December 2014
Warm and Dry
January 2015
Cool and Wet
Percent of Normal…Last 30 Days
Toledo Bend
90.7%
Medina
3.3%
Travis 34.1%
Lavon
51.9%
O.H. Ivie
14.0%
Meredith
5.5%
Canyon
77.2%
Buchanan 34.9%
Texana
87.1%
Lake Corpus Christi
46.2%
Possum Kingdom
62.4%
Amistad
62.5%
Choke Canyon
24.2%
Arrowhead
19.0%
Reservoir Conditions
2/25/2015
Edwards Aquifer
Lake Storage Across Texas
Lake Storage Across Texas
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png
U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
Precipitation Temperature
March – May 2015
Precipitation Temperature
U. S. Seasonal OutlooksJune – August 2015
Precipitation Temperature
U. S. Seasonal OutlooksTemperature for Jul – Sep 2015 and Aug – Oct 2015
Temperature Jul – Sep 2015 Temperature Aug – Oct 2015
U. S. Seasonal OutlooksSeptember - November 2015
Precipitation Temperature
