elmar altvater overcoming the economic and the environmental crisis: the solidarity economy
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Elmar Altvater Overcoming the economic and the environmental crisis: the solidarity economy. The multiple crisis of finance, of the „real economy“, of energy, the climate and of food The dynamics of the financial crisis: increasing financial claims - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Elmar AltvaterOvercoming the economic and the environmental crisis: the solidarity economy
• The multiple crisis of finance, of the „real economy“, of energy, the climate and of food
• The dynamics of the financial crisis: increasing financial claims• The lagging production of real surpluses due to the decreasing marginal
efficiency of capital (Keynes) or a falling rate of profit (Marx)• The externalisation of capital costs by overloading the natural environment
and increasing the rate of exploitation• New investment opportunities, a continuation of the fossil model or a „solar
solidarity economy“?
•
Per-Capita-Income; World and most Important Regions(in 1990 International Dollars)Source: Maddision, Angus (2001): The World Economy – A Millenial Perspective, (OECD) Paris: 28
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
0 1000 1820 1998
Western EuropeWestern OffshootsJapanLatin AmericaCEEAsiaAfricaWorld
Equality of Levels of per capita income
Differentiation of Development; Increase of Growth Rates and of Global Inequality
These tendencies have a long history – since the industrial revolution, i.e. real subsumtion of labour and of nature under capital. However, there is something new in the late 20th and early 21st century…
• The „great transformations“ of our times: The growth of monetary wealth due to growing unevenesss of distribution and the necessity of indebtedness: The new „debt cycles“
• 1970s: Break Down of Bretton Woods• Liberalisation of currency transactions and of financial flows• Oil crisis and petro$-recycling etc• 1980s: Debt crisis of the 3rd world (less developed countries)• Opening of formerly protected markets; Victory of neoliberal policy-projects• 1990s: The „end of history“ after the collapse of actually existing socialism• The emergence of a global financial system (financial innovations and
neoliberal „financialisation“ of the economies and the financial crisis of emerging, dynamic economies in Asia and Latin America
• 2000: New economy bubble: (highly developed countries, in the first place: the USA)
• 2007: The subprime crisis and the global financial and ecnomic crisis since 2008: whole world
The changing patterns of accumulation…
• The Interest rate is above the profit rate since the end of the 1970s in the industrialised world and in other countries even more accentuated (due to the spread on risks)
• Financial accumulation (speculation) is more attractive than productive investment
• However: the financial surplus must be produced in the real econom y
• The capitalism of the 21st century is characterised by severe financial repression
Financial markets and financial repression
In an environment of
currency competition
and financial liberalisation
Pressures grow to make Financial places
Comparatively attractiveThrough: high
returns on capital and monetary stability
Consequence:Redistribution of income flowsTo monetary wealth owners:
„accumulation by dispossession“
Pressure on labour, On wages and employment
The informal economy growsPressure on nature: Exhsaustion
Of resources and overload of sinks
Measures to increase surpluses, growth, and profits sharpen the social, political and above all the ecological crisis
Social crisisPressure on labour costs
Pressure on other input-
costs
Increase of productivity
(Lisbon-strategy)
Ecological crisis
Combustion of fossil energy
Climate crisis
Conflict between:Energy
for humans (food) and for
Maschines (fuel)
The causes of the financial crfisis are increasing monetary claims and shrinking economic surpluses
• Self-reference of financial markets• Liberalisation and deregulation
• Generation of high financial claims by means of „financial innovations“
• „Accumulation by dispossession“
• Greed of individuals
• Decraesing surplus-production of the real economy• Falling profit rates of
invested capital• Tendency of decreasing rreal
growth rates• Saturation and stagnation-
tendencies in the developed world
Monetary economy „Real“ economy
It seems so as if the financial sector is independent on the real accumulation process
Capital is accumulated as Fictitious capitalMethod is: „Originate and distribute“
The claims must be serviced out of real income flows, produced in the „real economy“ of production and services
Therefore the autonomy of financial markets is limited in time, space and size
Enourmous losses of the financial sector since the outbreakof the crisis
Ca. 1000Mrd USD
Ca.2000 Mrd.USD(BoE:2800Mrd USD
Ca.4100 Mrd USD
spring2008
Oktober/November2008
April2009
The ecological dimensions of the multiple crisis: disadvantages of fossil capitalism: the energy-system is closed and limited….
• „Taps“ or „Nature-Input“: Fossil resourses have a limited reach: PEAKOIL
• „Sinks“ and „dumping sites“ have a limited carrying capacity: The effects on the environment and the GREENHOUSE EFFECT
• The nessessity of regulation of taps and sinks: challenges of a new PETRO-GOVERNANCE
• The effects of the limits on social systems, on labour, employment and daily life etc. --> limits of growth
Oil Production (world) 1930-2050
This chart shows world oil production up until 2002 with ASPO's predictions of what might occur afterwards. After a plateau, it is expected to drop away (although it won't be as smooth as shown, of course). The comparisons with the Hubbert Curve are clear until the 1970s when the OPEC-induced oil crisis messed up the slope.
Source: ASPO
Already (in the past) consumed and (for the future) proved Reserves
Figures from BP und ASPO
ASPO
Until 2005 already consumed:944 bn Barrel
Secure Reserves748 bn Barrel (ASPO)1148 bn Barrel (BP)
UnsecuredReserves:
?
CO2
BP
Possible Conflicts at the end of the fossil ageGeo-economic Strategies around „Paper Oil“ Influencing the Formation of the Oil Price Influencing the Recycling of Petro-Dollars Influence on the Choice of the Currency in which the Oilprice is Invoiced
Geo-political Strategies on „Wet Oil“ Pressure on Oil Producers, to adapt their Production to Demand (The Decisive
Role of the „Swing Producer“ Development of Oil Subsitutes Diplomatic Pressure on Oil-Producers Use of Political and Military Pressure on Oil Producers Occupation of Oil Territories Control of Oil-Logistics (Pipelines, Tankship- and other Transport Routes etc.) Developing a new form of „Petro-Governance“
The Amalgamation of geo-economic and geo-political strategies in neoliberal and neo-conservative approaches
Consequence: a new „great game“ in Oil-Regions: Middle-East, Caucasus, Central Asia, but also in Africa… An emerging „Petro-Imperialism“?
Summary: Economic Policy-Alternatives
1st Regulation of the financial system•Financial transaction tax•Prohibition of „toxic“ businesses•Closing of tax havens etc.•Support of micro- and cooperative finance•Regulation of investment-banking in order to disincentive speculation
2nd Reduction of global imbalances•The establishment of a new currency-system because of the untolerable indebtedness of the USA and the danger of an uncrontrollable devaluation of the USD•Structural adjustment for deficit- and surplus-countries?•The new role of the SDR
3rd Alternative economic policy•Legal regulation of minimum wages•Decent labour instead of precarious labour; regulation of informal work•Reduction of working hours•Citizen-income•A „green new deal“?
16
In vH am Konjunkturpaket
In vH am BIP 2009
China 22 5,37
Südkorea 77 3,93
USA 10 0,58
Deutschland 15 0,54
GB 24 0,36
Italien 19 0,15
Frankreich 11 0,15
Quelle: FTD, 29.6.09
“Green shares” in state intervention-packages
17
Aspects of a „Green New Deal“ I
The historical reference to the New Deal of the 1930s is of a dubious nature The idea of a „global and green social contract “ (e.g. Lisbon-Group) makes reference to early bourgeois virtues and „contract theories“ which are not powerful enough as to explain modern social conflicts In contrast to the ideas of a social contract are the expectations of market-based instruments in climate policy etc. (emissions trade or REDD)The contradicting interests of powerful lobbies and the illusions of CSR
18
Aspects of a „Green New Deal“ II
The illusion of sustainable growth. Economic surpluses necessarily consume natural resources and sinks and therefare have a negative effect on natureIs it possible to change the energy regime without changing the pattern of consumtion and production?The role of the state in a capitalist society and its interventions must critically be examined Also green investment must be financed: the impact of the financial crisis must be taken into consideration
19
There are many meanings of a “Green New Deal”…
New Deal
New Deal
New Deal
New Deal
Green Invest ment
Green Invest ment
Green Invest ment
Green Invest ment
+
Social model Growth
Social model Growth
+
+
+
-
Social model-
Social Model
Growth
Growth and capital
accumulation
+
+ -
Green“Realpolitik”
Green FundamentalismNothinggreen
GNDBeyondcapitalism
Instead of Petro- and Climate conflicts a strategy of Sustainability in a solidarity society
• Sustainability by opening the closed fossil energy regime for solar energy: an ecological necessity
• Is it suitable to change only the energy-source without changing economic and social forms?
• No!• Which is the social formation matching a post-fossil
solar energy system? • Some kind of cooperative socialism, of a solidarity
economy and society• Which are the social movements pushing the fossil to a
renewable energy system?• Socio-territorial movements, trade unions…
Solidarity economy
• The “moral dimension” in a solidarity economy• The “monetary dimension” of the society based on work and the
requirements of regulation of financial markets• The crucial role of global regulation of financial markets• The decisive role of politics and of the nation state to set the
social and legal framework of a solidarity economy• The importance of public goods and of the reappropriation of the
natural and cultural commons
Conclusion• There is no simple exit from the multi-layered crisis of
finance, of the economy, of energy, the climate and food• A new investment-cycle, even when massively green,
hits limits of nature: peakoil, the climate-system, the evolution of the biosphere, the provision of food etc.
• A “de-growth”- and “de-globalisation”-strategy is only possible in the social framework of a cooperative, solidarity economy on the basis of renewable energies
• And it needs the regulation of financial markets, i.e. re-conquest of political sovereignty on financial markets and on the economy
• By means of an extension of economic democracy