end-2020 exchequer returns · 2021. 1. 5. · exchequer position –overview € million...

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End-2020 Exchequer Returns John McCarthy Chief Economist, Department of Finance 5 th January 2021

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Page 1: End-2020 Exchequer Returns · 2021. 1. 5. · Exchequer position –overview € million year-on-year change, % Total revenue 82,465 6.1: tax revenue 57,165 -3.6: non-tax revenue

End-2020 Exchequer Returns

John McCarthy

Chief Economist, Department of Finance

5th January 2021

Page 2: End-2020 Exchequer Returns · 2021. 1. 5. · Exchequer position –overview € million year-on-year change, % Total revenue 82,465 6.1: tax revenue 57,165 -3.6: non-tax revenue

2 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland

Exchequer position: summary

Page 3: End-2020 Exchequer Returns · 2021. 1. 5. · Exchequer position –overview € million year-on-year change, % Total revenue 82,465 6.1: tax revenue 57,165 -3.6: non-tax revenue

3 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland

Exchequer position – overview

€ million year-on-year change, %

Total revenue 82,465 6.1

: tax revenue 57,165 -3.6

: non-tax revenue 7,863 53.7

of which: NAMA transfer to Exchequer 2,000 -

of which: Rainy Day Fund transfer to Exchequer 1,500 -

: appropriations-in-aid 17,437 31.4

Total expenditure 94,781 23.0

: current 75,637 26.0

: capital 9,649 31.0

: non-voted expenditure 9,495 -1.5

Exchequer balance -12,316 -

compares with surplus of €645 million in 2019

Page 4: End-2020 Exchequer Returns · 2021. 1. 5. · Exchequer position –overview € million year-on-year change, % Total revenue 82,465 6.1: tax revenue 57,165 -3.6: non-tax revenue

4 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland

Revenue developments

Page 5: End-2020 Exchequer Returns · 2021. 1. 5. · Exchequer position –overview € million year-on-year change, % Total revenue 82,465 6.1: tax revenue 57,165 -3.6: non-tax revenue

5 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland

Contributions to annual tax change, 2020 vs. 2019, € millions

73

492

12439

223

2,694

23575

945

54,000

55,000

56,000

57,000

58,000

59,000

60,000

2019 customs excise duties CGT CAT income taxes VAT motor tax stamp duties CT 2020

€59.3 bn

€57.2 bn

blue = taxes that

rose in the yeargrey = taxes that fell in the year

Page 6: End-2020 Exchequer Returns · 2021. 1. 5. · Exchequer position –overview € million year-on-year change, % Total revenue 82,465 6.1: tax revenue 57,165 -3.6: non-tax revenue

6 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland

Tax revenue performance: individual tax headings

change vs 2019

outturn €m per cent

Income Tax 22,711 -224 -1.0

VAT 12,424 -2,694 -17.8

Corporation Tax 11,833 +945 8.7

Excise 5,448 -493 -8.3

Stamps 2,090 +575 +38.0

CGT 951 -125 -11.5

Motor Tax 939 -23 -2.4

Customs 276 -73 -20.9

CAT 494 -39 -7.3

Unallocated - - -

Total 57,165 -2,149 -3.6

Note: figures are rounded

€580m receipts arising

from a complex tax issue

distribution of employment losses;

self-employed = down slightly

higher corporate profitability –

parts of multinational sector

fall in consumer spending / higher savings

although some = “warehoused”

lower car sales, etc.

Page 7: End-2020 Exchequer Returns · 2021. 1. 5. · Exchequer position –overview € million year-on-year change, % Total revenue 82,465 6.1: tax revenue 57,165 -3.6: non-tax revenue

7 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland

Expenditure developments

Page 8: End-2020 Exchequer Returns · 2021. 1. 5. · Exchequer position –overview € million year-on-year change, % Total revenue 82,465 6.1: tax revenue 57,165 -3.6: non-tax revenue

8 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland

Voted current expenditure: 2020 vs 2019 € millions

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

total

social protection

health

housing

other

2019 2020

current expenditure = €75.6 bn.

€15.6bn, 26.0% year-on-year increase

additional Covid-related expenditure on:

1). health [€3.0bn, 18.1% year-on-year]

2). social protection [€9.8bn, 47.1% year-on-year]

^ gross figures

Page 9: End-2020 Exchequer Returns · 2021. 1. 5. · Exchequer position –overview € million year-on-year change, % Total revenue 82,465 6.1: tax revenue 57,165 -3.6: non-tax revenue

9 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

total

business

health

transport

other

2019 2020

capital spending = €9.6 bn.

€2.3 bn, 31% year-on-year increasecovid-related funding to business

Voted capital expenditure: 2020 vs 2019 € millions

^ gross figures

Page 10: End-2020 Exchequer Returns · 2021. 1. 5. · Exchequer position –overview € million year-on-year change, % Total revenue 82,465 6.1: tax revenue 57,165 -3.6: non-tax revenue

10 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland

Conclusion

Page 11: End-2020 Exchequer Returns · 2021. 1. 5. · Exchequer position –overview € million year-on-year change, % Total revenue 82,465 6.1: tax revenue 57,165 -3.6: non-tax revenue

11 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland

Summary

• 2020 tax revenue = €57.2 billion

- annual decrease of €2.1 billion

- VAT and Excise down €3.2 billion on 2019

- resilience in income tax, CT

annual increase of 1.1 per cen

• 2020 gross voted expenditure = €85.3 bn.

- €17.9 billion ahead of last year1,1 billion ahead of profile

- current = 26.0 per cent ahead of 2019

- capital = 31.0 per cent ahead of 2019

• Exchequer deficit of €12.3 billion at end-2020

- deterioration of just under €13 billion vs. surplus recorded at end-2019

- primarily driven by increases in expenditure resulting from Covid-19

• Estimated general government deficit of c. €19 billion- around 5½ per cent of GDP

- final figure complied by CSO (April)